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NYC Registered Voters

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NYC Registered Voters How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll of 1,421 New York City Adults This survey of 1,421 New York City adults was conducted June 17th through June 21st, 2013. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in New York City were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the city. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each borough was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2010 Census results for age, gender, income, race, and borough. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. Results for adults are statistically significant within ±2.6 percentage points. There are 1,118 registered voters. Results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.9 percentage points. There are 689 Democrats and 123 Republicans. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points for Democrats and ±8.8 percentage points for Republicans. There are 361 likely Democratic voters defined by a probability turnout model. This model determines the likelihood respondents will vote in the 2013 Democratic Primary for mayor based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past primary participation. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±5.2 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross- tabulations. WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll June 2013 1 Nature of the Sample - New York City NYC Adults NYC Registered Voters Col % Col % NYC Adults 100% NYC Registered Voters 79% 100% Party Registration Democrat 66% 66% Republican 12% 12% Independent 21% 21% Other 1% 1% Political Ideology Liberal 38% 38% Moderate 40% 40% Conservative 23% 23% NYC Borough Bronx 16% 16% Brooklyn 30% 28% Manhattan 21% 22% Queens 28% 28% Staten Island 5% 5% Income Less than $50,000 50% 48% $50,000 or more 50% 52% Race White 37% 39% African American 22% 22% Latino 27% 26% Asian 13% 12% Other 2% 2% Age 18 to 29 24% 19% 30 to 44 29% 28% 45 to 59 22% 25% 60 or older 24% 28% Age Under 45 54% 48% 45 or older 46% 52% Religion Protestant 24% 25% Catholic 36% 37% Jewish 13% 13% Other 9% 8% No Religion 18% 17% Educat ion Not college graduate 54% 53% College graduat e 46% 47% Union Household Yes 25% 27% No 74% 72% Gender Men 47% 47% Women 53% 53% Interview Type Landline 72% 74% Cell Phone 28% 26% WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll NYC Adults: Interviews conducted June 17th through June 21st, 2013, n=1421 MOE +/- 2.6 percentage points. NYC Registered Voters: N=1118 MOE +/- 2.9 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll June 2013 2 Nature of the Sample - New York City NYC Democratic Primary NYC Democrats Likely Voters Col % Col % NYC Democrats 100% NYC Democratic Primary Likely Voters 52% 100% Political Ideology Liberal 42% 44% Moderate 42% 41% Conservative 17% 15% White Liberal 16% 19% NYC Borough Bronx 18% 15% Brooklyn 27% 30% Manhattan 23% 28% Queens 28% 23% Staten Island 4% 3% Income Less than $50,000 49% 46% $50,000 or more 51% 54% Race White 34% 39% African American 28% 29% Latino 27% 23% Asian 10% 8% Other 1% 1% Age 18 to 29 15% 10% 30 to 44 29% 28% 45 to 59 25% 27% 60 or older 31% 36% Age Under 45 44% 38% 45 or older 56% 62% Religion Protestant 30% 31% Catholic 34% 32% Jewish 12% 14% Other 9% 6% No Religion 15% 17% White Catholic 11% 11% Educat ion Not college graduate 53% 49% College graduat e 47% 51% Union Household Yes 28% 29% No 71% 70% Gender Men 43% 43% Women 57% 57% Interview Type Landline 76% 79% Cell Phone 24% 21% WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll NYC Registered Democrats: Interviews conducted June 17th through June 21st, 2013, n=689 MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points. NYC Democratic Primary Likely Voters: n=361 MOE +/- 5.2 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll June 2013 3 WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll New York City Tables NYC Democrats NYC Democratic primary for mayor including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate Anthony Christine Weiner Quinn Bill Thompson Bill de Blasio John Liu Erick Salgado Sal Albanese Other Undecided Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % NYC Democrats 25% 20% 13% 10% 8% 2% 1% 1% 18% NYC Democratic Primary Likely Voters 25% 21% 14% 13% 8% 2% 1% 1% 16% Political Ideology Liberal 28% 22% 12% 12% 9% 1% 1% 1% 14% Moderate 23% 22% 15% 9% 10% 2% 2% 0% 17% Conservative 19% 17% 11% 12% 7% 6% 2% 1% 25% White Liberal 18% 28% 10% 21% 5% 1% 2% 1% 15% Intensity of Support for Strongly support 40% 23% 18% 8% 9% 2% 1% 0% 0% Mayor (Democratic Somewhat support 30% 26% 17% 12% 10% 3% 1% 0% 0% Primary) Might vote differently 20% 22% 16% 20% 17% 3% 2% 0% 0% NYC Borough Bronx 21% 21% 12% 7% 10% 5% 1% 2% 22% Brooklyn 23% 16% 16% 16% 7% 1% 3% 1% 18% Manhattan 23% 27% 10% 12% 5% 1% 0% 0% 21% Queens and Staten Island 30% 20% 13% 7% 11% 3% 2% 1% 15% Income Less than $50,000 26% 21% 12% 8% 6% 3% 2% 1% 21% $50,000 or more 26% 19% 16% 13% 11% 1% 1% 0% 13% Race White 19% 25% 13% 17% 5% 1% 3% 1% 17% African American 26% 19% 21% 8% 6% 2% 1% 0% 15% Latino 23% 16% 8% 8% 13% 5% 1% 1% 24% Asian 43% 19% 5% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 17% Religion Protestant 25% 20% 16% 8% 10% 2% 1% 1% 16% Catholic 23% 22% 11% 10% 9% 5% 2% 1% 18% Jewish 20% 19% 16% 19% 6% 2% 3% 1% 14% White Catholic 20% 28% 12% 12% 6% 1% 5% 1% 15% Education Not college graduate 24% 17% 12% 9% 9% 4% 2% 1% 22% College graduate 25% 26% 15% 12% 8% 0% 1% 1% 13% Age Under 45 30% 20% 7% 9% 11% 3% 1% 0% 18% 45 or older 20% 21% 18% 11% 7% 2% 2% 1% 18% Age 18 to 29 29% 13% 9% 6% 13% 5% 1% 0% 24% 30 to 44 31% 24% 6% 11% 10% 2% 1% 0% 15% 45 to 59 23% 20% 15% 12% 7% 2% 3% 1% 17% 60 or older 18% 22% 20% 10% 7% 1% 2% 1% 18% Gender Men 29% 19% 14% 9% 9% 3% 1% 0% 15% Women 22% 21% 12% 11% 8% 1% 1% 1% 21% Union Household 28% 17% 18% 10% 9% 2% 2% 0% 14% Interview Type Landline 23% 22% 15% 11% 8% 2% 2% 1% 18% Cell Phone 30% 16% 8% 9% 11% 4% 0% 0% 20% WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll NYC Registered Democrats: Interviews conducted June 17th through June 21st, 2013, n=689 MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points. NYC Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Interviews conducted June 17th through June 21st, 2013, n=361 MOE +/- 5.2 percentage points.Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll June 2013 4 WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll New York City Tables NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference for Mayor Would you say that you strongly support <candidate> somewhat support <candidate>, or do you think that you might vote differently on Primary Day? Somewhat Might vote Strongly support support differently Unsure Row % Row % Row % Row % NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference for Mayor 36% 38% 23% 3% Christine Quinn Supporters 34% 42% 21% 3% Anthony Weiner Supporters 45% 36% 15% 4% Political Ideology Liberal 38% 38% 21% 3% Moderate 38% 42% 20% 1% Conservative 26% 31% 37% 6% NYC Borough Bronx 36% 41% 20% 3% Brooklyn 34% 41% 23% 2% Manhattan 34% 33% 29% 4% Queens and Staten Island 40% 38% 20% 2% Income Less than $50,000 34% 40% 23% 3% $50,000 or more 38% 38% 22% 2% Race White 27% 42% 29% 2% African American 48% 34% 14% 3% Latino 28% 39% 29% 4% Asian 50% 45% 5% 0% Education Not college graduate 36% 36% 25% 3% College graduate 35% 41% 21% 2% Age Under 45 25% 49% 23% 4% 45 or older 43% 32% 23% 2% Gender Men 39% 37% 21% 2% Women 34% 39% 24% 3% Union Household 39% 37% 20% 3% Interview Type Landline 39% 38% 20% 3% Cell Phone 27% 38% 31% 3% WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll NYC Registered Democrats with a Candidate Preference for Mayor: Interviews conducted June 17th through June 21st, 2013, n=468 MOE +/- 4.5 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll June 2013 5 WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll New York City Tables NYC Republicans NYC Republican primary for mayor including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate Joe Lhota John Catsimatidis George McDonald Other Undecided Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % NYC Republicans 28% 21% 10% 1% 40% Marist Poll NYC Registered Republicans: Interviews conducted June 17th through June 21st, 2013, n=123 MOE +/- 8.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll June 2013 6 WSJ/NBC NY/Marist Poll New York City Tables NYC Democrats If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.
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