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Complete June 26, 2013 the Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll

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Complete June 26, 2013 the Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll* Weiner Surpasses Quinn among NYC Dems… Lhota Tops GOP Field in Quest for NYC Mayoralty *** Complete Tables for Poll Appended *** For Immediate Release: Wednesday, June 26, 2013 Contact: Lee M. Miringoff Barbara L. Carvalho Mary E. Griffith Marist College, 845.575.5050 This Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll reports: A month after former Congressman Anthony Weiner announced his candidacy for New York City Mayor, Weiner has moved ahead of his competitors. He now edges New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn by five percentage points in the race for the Democratic nomination. Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand: • 25% Anthony Weiner • 20% Christine Quinn • 13% Bill Thompson • 10% Bill de Blasio • 8% John Liu • 2% Erick Salgado • 1% Sal Albanese • 1% Other • 18% Undecided “The Weiner candidacy has scrambled the contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, nearly one in five Democrats are *All references to the survey must be sourced as “The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll” undecided, and almost two-thirds are not firmly committed to a candidate which makes for a lot of persuadable voters.” The two frontrunners have traded places. In May, shortly after Weiner announced his candidacy, 24% of Democrats in New York City supported Quinn while Weiner received the support of 19%. Bill de Blasio garnered 12%, followed closely by Thompson with 11%. Eight percent backed Liu while 1% supported Albanese. Less than 1% backed Salgado while 1% was behind another candidate. 23% of New York City Democrats were undecided. By borough: • In Queens and Staten Island, Weiner -- 30% -- leads Quinn -- 20%. • In Brooklyn, Weiner -- 23% -- also has the advantage over Quinn -- 16%. • In the Bronx, both Weiner and Quinn each receive the support of 21%. • In Manhattan, Quinn -- 27% -- edges Weiner -- 23%. By gender: • While Weiner -- 29% -- is ahead of Quinn -- 19% -- among men who are Democrats, Weiner -- 22% -- and Quinn -- 21% -- are in a close contest among women. How strongly do New York City Democrats with a candidate preference support their choice? 36% are firmly committed to their pick. 38% are somewhat in their candidate’s camp while 23% might vote differently. Three percent are unsure. There has been little change on this question since last month when 39% expressed strong support for their candidate. 35%, at that time, were somewhat committed to their pick while 25% said they could change their minds. Two percent were unsure. When it comes to the intensity of support for the two frontrunners, Weiner still has the edge. 45% of Democrats who back the former Congressman say they are firmly committed to him while 34% of those who are for Quinn proffer the same level of support. In Marist’s previous survey, 43% of candidate Weiner’s supporters and 30% of candidate Quinn’s backers vowed not to waver in their level of commitment. Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Weiner has the backing of 25%. Quinn runs second with 21% while 14% are for Thompson. 13% supports de Blasio while Liu receives 8%. Two percent are in Salgado’s camp while 1% supports Albanese. One percent is behind another candidate, and 16% are undecided. *All references to the survey must be sourced as “The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll” Looking at the Republican contest, Joe Lhota is ahead of his closest competitor, John Catsimatidis, by seven percentage points. George McDonald is in third. A notable 40% citywide have yet to select a candidate. It’s important to keep in mind the small proportion of Republicans in this survey. Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand: • 28% Joe Lhota • 21% John Catsimatidis • 10% George McDonald • 1% Other • 40% Undecided When Marist last reported this question in February, Lhota -- 20% -- outpaced George McDonald, by 12 percentage points. At that time, 8% of Republicans citywide supported McDonald. Catsimatidis received the support of 5% of the vote while Tom Allon -- 4% -- Adolfo Carrion -- 3% -- and A.R. Bernard -- 2% -- rounded out the field. Three percent, then, supported another candidate, and a majority -- 55% -- was undecided. Quinn and Weiner in Tight Race in Runoff …Thompson Runs Competitively If none of the Democratic candidates receives 40% of the vote, how would they fare in a runoff? When Quinn -- 44% -- and Weiner -- 42% -- face off, they vie for the lead. 14% of New York City Democrats are undecided. Weiner has gained support during the last month. When Marist last reported this question in May, 48% of New York City Democrats backed Quinn while 33% supported Weiner. Almost one in five -- 18% -- was undecided. Among New York City Democrats: • Thompson has caught up to Quinn. In a runoff scenario, Quinn -- 42% -- and Thompson -- 40% -- are now neck and neck. 18% are undecided. In May, Quinn -- 44% -- led Thompson -- 34% -- by 10 percentage points. 22% were undecided. • Against de Blasio, Quinn has 47% compared with 33% for de Blasio. More than one in five Democrats -- 21% -- is undecided. There has been little change on this question. In Marist’s previous survey, Quinn -- 48% -- outdistanced de Blasio -- 30%. 22%, at that time, were undecided. *All references to the survey must be sourced as “The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll” • In a runoff against Liu, Quinn has the support of 49% while Liu garners 32%. 19% are undecided. In May, a majority of Democrats -- 53% -- backed Quinn against Liu - - 25%. 22%, at that time, were undecided. • Thompson -- 42% -- and Weiner -- 41% -- are competitive in this hypothetical runoff contest. 18% are undecided. • Weiner -- 47% -- leads Liu -- 35% -- among New York City Democrats. 19% are undecided. • In a runoff scenario against de Blasio, 44% are for Weiner while 39% are for de Blasio. 16% are undecided. Sharpton Endorsement Would Do Little to Boost Electoral Chances If Reverend Al Sharpton were to endorse one of the Democratic candidates for mayor, just 25% of Democrats citywide say they would be more likely to vote for that candidate. However, a plurality -- 45% -- would be less likely to do so. One in five -- 20% -- reports such an endorsement would make no difference to their vote. One in ten -- 10% -- is unsure. There are racial differences. Almost four in ten African American Democrats -- 39% -- would be more likely to support a candidate with Reverend Sharpton’s endorsement. 27% would be less likely to vote for such a candidate, and 22% report it would make no difference to their vote. Among white Democrats, a majority -- 52% -- would be less inclined to back a candidate with Mr. Sharpton’s backing. 17% would be more likely to do so, and 23% say it would not impact their vote. Nearly half of Latino Democrats -- 49% -- would be less likely to support a candidate with Sharpton’s endorsement. 26% would be more likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 14% report it would make no difference to their vote. Most Dems Still Viewed Positively, But… Most of the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination are viewed favorably by those in their party. While Christine Quinn’s favorability rating remains strong, it continues to decline. Weiner and Thompson, in contrast, currently enjoy a boost in their favorability ratings. • Six in ten Democrats in New York City -- 60% -- have a good impression of Thompson while 16% do not. 25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Thompson’s favorability rating is up from last month when 52% of Democrats thought well of him. 17% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him. • When it comes to Quinn, 57% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of her while 29% have an unfavorable view of her. 14% have either never heard of her or are *All references to the survey must be sourced as “The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll” unsure how to rate her. Quinn’s positive rating has dipped slightly while her negative rating has inched up. In May, six in ten Democrats -- 60% -- had a favorable view of Quinn. 26% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her. • A majority of Democrats -- 52% -- view Weiner well while 36% do not. 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Democrats divided in May when 44% had a favorable opinion of Weiner, 44% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 12% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him. • A majority of New York City Democrats -- 52% -- have a favorable impression of Bill de Blasio. 19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. In Marist’s previous survey, half of Democrats in the city -- 50% -- had a positive view of de Blasio while 19% had a negative one. 30% had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.
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