An Empirical Examination of the Abortion Issue
Yale Law & Policy Review Volume 1, Number 1, Fall 1982 ARTICLES Electoral Folklore: An Empirical Examination of the Abortion Issue Jeffrey W. Stempel* William D. Morris** For nearly a decade, the abortion issue has loomed large in American politics. City councilmen, state legislators, congressmen, presidents, and Supreme Court nominees are routinely asked their opinions on legalized abortion. Despite the controversy generated by pro-life and pro-choice' interest groups, little is known regarding the issue's impact upon voting behavior. This study seeks to enhance that knowledge by empirically examining congressional general elections in order to assess the impact of the abortion issue. We then review our finding that the abortion issue does not alter established voting patterns in these contests. I. The Abortion Issue.- A Pohtical War Without Casualty Figures During the past decade, abortion has been perhaps the most emo- tional and divisive issue in American politics. One national magazine, in its cover story devoted to the issue, described public division on the issue in Armageddon-like terms: * Law Clerk to Judge Raymond J. Broderick, Eastern District of Pennsylvania. B.A., University of Minnesota 1977; J.D., Yale Law School 1981. ** Chairman, Independent-Republican Party of Minnesota. B.A., Oakland University 1970; Ph.D., Carnegie-Mellon University 1975; Professor of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 1974-1981. 1. Semantics has comprised a major battle of the abortion controversy. Those opposing the Roe v. Wade, 340 U.S. 113 (1973), decision have termed themselves "pro-life", a designa- tion frowned upon by those favoring legalized abortion. Not surprisingly, this "pro-choice" group resents the implication that it opposes life.
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