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Western Promise the Impact of Crossrail on Residential Property from Acton to West Ealing

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Western Promise the Impact of Crossrail on Residential Property from Acton to West Ealing RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH WESTERN PROMISE THE IMPACT OF CROSSRAIL ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY FROM ACTON TO WEST EALING NEW JOURNEY TIMES EXPANDED COMMUTER ZONES FORECAST PRICE UPLIFTS CROSSRAIL – THE IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY FROM ACTON TO WEST EALING “ These three areas offer OVERVIEW lower entry costs coupled with the potential for Crossrail is set to increase London’s rail transport capacity by significant price growth.” 10% when it opens in 2018, opening up greater parts of London to those living along the route. The new service is the biggest Gráinne Gilmore, Head of UK Residential infrastructure project to be undertaken in London for twenty Research years, and will mark the largest single uplift in rail capacity since the Second World War. The scheme received Royal Assent in July 2008, and it will be completely finished by the end of 2019. In this report, we concentrate on the effect of these three stations are between 42% and 50% as a whole. We expect that residential prices the new rail line on residential property in the lower, as shown in figure 1. If we look at prices in Greater London will outperform most other “near Western fringe”: Acton, Ealing Broadway around Ealing Broadway as a base, comparable areas of the country in the coming years, with and West Ealing stations. We examine the prices around Paddington station are some the pace of growth overtaking that of prices in impact the rail line has already had on prices, 72% higher. This increases the investment the relatively localised prime central London and forecast the uplift in prices we expect for opportunities around our three stations, as the market. property within a 10-minute walkzone of the initial entry costs are lower for investors and The “Crossrail effect” will provide an additional stations. We are not discounting the value homebuyers alike. uplift of 1% every year over and above our base uplift that homes situated further away may The fundamentals in the UK housing market at assumptions for price growth in the coming experience, but we think the effect on prices will present, not least Government interventions years, as shown in figure 2. We do not discount be most striking for property situated within a such as Help to Buy, signal that the price growth the possibility that price gains may accelerate as 10 minute walk. seen over the last year is set to continue. Despite we move towards 2018, as Crossrail moves from While property prices surrounding the three price to income ratios being relatively high, being a major construction project to a slick and stations have outperformed those in the wider prices are being underpinned in many areas by regular direct rail service across London in both local authority in recent years, average sales a lack of supply, and this is a particularly relevant directions. This will result in a total uplift in prices prices are still much lower than prices of homes dynamic in the London market. around these stations of around 36% by the end surrounding more central stations. For example, of 2018. The improvement in the economy has also when compared to prices within a 10 minute helped bolster confidence among homebuyers walk of Paddington station, prices around and movers, creating more activity in the market How average sales prices in 10-minute walkzones compare to Paddington Figure 1 Forecast additional price growth for all stations: 1% per annum Figure 2 Mean price 10-min walkzone Paddington = 100 50% Base London Price Forecast Forecast for 10-Minute Walk Zones -50% -42% -48% 40% 30% Paddington Acton Main Line Ealing Broadway West Ealing Source: Knight Frank Residential Research/Land Registry 20% Crossrail is set to open in stages: • May 2018: Heathrow to • December 2018: Heathrow • December 2019: All Paddington to Paddington. Paddington stations open for direct 10% through central London to services between Abbey Wood (change trains Maidenhead and Abbey at Paddington). Wood and Shenfield. Source: Crossrail END END END END END END 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Knight Frank Residential Research CROSSRAIL THE IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY FROM ACTON TO WEST EALING West London Crossrail Stations: 10-minute walkzones Figure 3 THE CROSSRAIL EFFECT Crossrail will be situated in the existing tube ‘opened up’ to those living around Acton, all three stations which goes to Heathrow in and mainline stations in all three stations, but Ealing Broadway and West Ealing hoping to around 25 minutes from Ealing Broadway. Once the stations themselves, and in some cases the travel further across the Capital for work. Our Crossrail opens, it is expected that this journey surrounding areas, are set to undergo substantial commuter map on page 6 shows how this works time will become shorter, and the journeys more re-development. While much of the additional in practice. frequent, an additional benefit to those living value for residential property will be derived near the stations. Those living around Ealing Broadway can already from the increased ease and speed of transport, travel quite far during a 45 minute commute In this report, we focus on the uplift expected in the re-development around Ealing Broadway by public transport during morning rush hour, the run up to these stations being linked-up with station will also play a part in value uplifts. given that Ealing Broadway is already a junction Paddington and the central and eastern routes Other environmental impacts cannot be station for the tube, as well as a mainland train to Abbey Wood in December 2018. ignored. In the 2011 update to the 2010 station. However, even here, Crossrail will make Business Case for Crossrail, which includes the a significant impact. Once it has fully opened in wider economic benefits of the new rail service, 2019, commuters will be able to access a wider there is reference to the potential impact the area within 45 minutes, with whole areas opened new service could have on road usage, with the up – especially in East London, given the direct extra capacity provided cutting the need for car journeys possible to Stratford, Canary Wharf and journeys to Heathrow. Any reduction in traffic further afield. Alternatively, workers will simply could have a positive effect on property around find their commute truncated, in some cases 45% these West London stations. leaving them hours of extra leisure time every Reduction in travel time week. Once Crossrail has fully opened in late 2019, from Ealing Broadway some journey times will be dramatically reduced The ease of access to Heathrow Airport is to Bond Street when compared to today, as shown in figure 4. As already a factor benefitting those living in such, larger areas of the capital will be effectively the area thanks to the mainline train through Crossrail opens. CROSSRAIL THE IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY FROM ACTON TO WEST EALING CROSSRAIL – THE IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY FROM ACTON TO WEST EALING Crossrail Stations 10-Minute Walkzone Crossrail Route Source: Knight Frank Residential Research How journey times will be cut when Crossrail opens Figure 4 ACTON MAIN LINE TO 48 MINUTES HEATHROW TERMINAL 4 23 MINUTES ACTON MAIN LINE TO 46 MINUTES LIVERPOOL STREET 16 MINUTES // CHANGES/DIFFERENT EALING BRODWAY TO 22 MINUTES TYPES OF TRANSPORT BOND STREET 12 MINUTES REQUIRED EALING BROADWAY TO 24 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 2013 HEATHROW TERMINAL 1,2,3 EXISTING JOURNEY TIMES EALING BROADWAY TO 41 MINUTES CANARY WHARF 26 MINUTES CROSSRAIL DIRECT JOURNEY TIMES FROM 2018 WEST EALING TO 13 MINUTES PADDINGTON 11 MINUTES WEST EALING TO 51 MINUTES STRATFORD 29 MINUTES 0 MINS 10 MINS 20 MINS 30 MINS 40 MINS 50 MINS 60 MINS JOURNEY TIMES Source: TfL/Crossrail CROSSRAIL THE IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY FROM ACTON TO WEST EALING STATIONS Acton Main Line Ealing Broadway West Ealing Prices within a 10 minute walk of Acton station Ealing Broadway is already well connected, with The station at West Ealing will be re-developed have outperformed prices in the wider local Central and District line tube services from the to coincide with the opening of Crossrail. The authority of Ealing. station. But the ease and speed of travel from station currently sits on the Great Western this station will improve markedly from 2019. mainline train service from Paddington to Bristol We have measured prices to July 2013, given Temple Meads. that it takes several months for all sales to For example, commuters from Ealing Broadway be registered with the Land Registry. Prices hoping to get into central London will be just Prices of homes in and around the station have in Ealing have risen by around 13% between four stops away from Bond Street, as opposed outperformed those in the wider local authority Crossrail being granted Royal Assent in July to the current 11-stop trip on the Central line. by 12% since Crossrail received Royal Assent 2008 and July this year. In contrast, average Likewise, travellers will be able to hop on a train in July 2008, and in July this year. In addition, prices of houses within a 10 minute walk of straight to Heathrow more frequently, rather the average sales price of homes in this area Acton main line station have risen by a than taking the overland train, or taking the edged ahead of those in Ealing, selling for an further 48%. underground and changing onto the Piccadilly average of 5% more than those in the wider line, as is the case at the moment. local authority. While the pace of growth is higher, the actual average sale price of property around the The station is set to undergo a transformation, There is set to be a step up in the delivery station is still 2% lower than average prices with the addition of a pedestrianized zone of new homes in the areas around the new across the borough.
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