BiGGAR Economics Economic impact of Aberdeen Harbour Nigg Bay Development A final report to Scottish Enterprise th 19 December 2013 BiGGAR Economics Midlothian Innovation Centre Pentlandfield Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RE 0131 440 9032
[email protected] www.biggareconomics.co.uk CONTENTS Page 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................... 1 2 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 4 3 POLICY CONTEXT AND PROJECT DESCRIPTION ........................................... 7 4 ECONOMIC AND MARKET CONTEXT .............................................................. 13 5 APPROACH ........................................................................................................ 23 6 BASELINE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ................................................................... 26 7 ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT ......................................... 37 8 REFERENCE CASE ............................................................................................ 47 9 FULL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO ................................................................... 50 10 BASIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO ............................................................... 53 11 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .................................................................... 57 12 APPENDIX 1 - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ......................................................... 60 13 APPENDIX 2 – GLOSSARY ............................................................................