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Mining Futures Mining Futures Predictions and Uncertainty in Swedish Mineral Exploration TOBIAS OLOFSSON Dissertation presented at Uppsala University to be publicly examined in Humanistiska Teatern, Thunbergsvägen 3C 752 38 Uppsala, Uppsala, Friday, 30 October 2020 at 13:15 for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The examination will be conducted in English. Faculty examiner: Associate Professor Trine Pallesen (Copenhagen Business School). Abstract Olofsson, T. 2020. Mining Futures. Predictions and Uncertainty in Swedish Mineral Exploration. 260 pp. Uppsala. ISBN 978-91-506-2842-5. Any forward-oriented enterprise must somehow manage the challenges posed by uncertainty and with its distant temporal horizons, high stakes, and low probability of success, mineral exploration is a good illustration of this general rule. Based on a combination of interviews, observations, and archival research, this thesis investigates how explorationists use predictions to manage the material complexities and the uncertainties that contribute to determining the future minability of mineral deposits. Using data from industrial mineral exploration in Sweden, the thesis traces the production and use of predictions across the exploration process, from its early explorative phases to its development into a techno-economic hybrid in advanced stage exploration. With the aid of a detailed study of the valuation processes involved in measuring and predicting the future minability in exploration projects, the thesis demonstrates how risk management in mineral exploration relies both on a continuous addition of measurements and data on different dimensions of “risk” and the bracketing of any uncertainties unaccounted for in exploration practice and standards. Moreover, the thesis shows how industry standards provide explorationists with repertoires of values that are called upon in order to justify predictions as accurate and precise depictions of the future. However, the thesis also demonstrates how justifications of predictions in mineral exploration are not only about prediction correctness, but also about the merits of realizing the predicted future as explorationists are shown to actualize values expressed in contemporary debates to justify the benefits of a mining future. Lastly, the thesis also shows how predictions are used in explorationists’ interactions with their publics. To accomplish this, the thesis outlines how investors, governmental agencies, and other actors upon whom explorationists depend on for resources such as capital and legal permits use second- order metapredictions to determine whether to invest in or grant permits to a project. Moreover, the thesis also highlights how these metapredictors are invited by explorationists to co-create the predicted mining future while other affected parties are left out. Together, the findings reported here demonstrates not only the way predictions are used in uncertainty management and the epistemic challenges involved in making predictions, but also the social and political implementations of how predictions are used not only to make claims about the future, but also how explorationists and their associates use predictions to claim the future for themselves. Keywords: Uncertainty, Risk management, Sociology of the Future, Valuation, Justification, Mineral Exploration, Second Nature, Natural Resources Tobias Olofsson, Department of Sociology, Box 624, Uppsala University, SE-75126 Uppsala, Sweden. © Tobias Olofsson 2020 ISBN 978-91-506-2842-5 urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-417204 (http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-417204) For my grandmother, Eila Nilsson, who had to forgo education as her hands were needed on the farm and not in school. And a river went out of Eden to water the gar- den; and from thence it was parted, and be- came into four heads. The name of the first is Pison: that is it which compasseth the whole land of Havilah, where there is gold; And the gold of that land is good: there is bdellium and the onyx stone. The Holy Bible: King James Version – Genesis 2:10-12 (2012) edited by Marks Contents Preface .......................................................................................................... 11 1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 15 1.1 Aim and research questions ................................................................ 18 1.2 Managing uncertain futures: Predictions and risks in the social sciences .................................................................................................... 19 1.2.1 A closer look at risks and uncertainties ...................................... 22 1.3 Uncertainty and predictions of the minability of mineral resources .. 35 1.3.1 A note on terminology: Resources and explorationists .............. 37 1.4 Outline and summary of the argument ............................................... 38 2. Contextualizing Mineral Exploration ........................................................ 40 2.1 Overview: Mineral exploration in history and in the present ............. 41 2.1.1 A small global industry ............................................................... 43 2.2 Multi-national giants and small scale entrepreneurs .......................... 45 2.2.3 Non-industry stakeholders .......................................................... 47 2.3 The regulation of mineral exploration ................................................ 49 2.3.1 Public regulation: The Minerals Act and The Environmental Code ..................................................................................................... 50 2.3.2 Private regulation: From fraud to framework ............................. 54 3. Theory: Prediction Work in Mineral Exploration ..................................... 58 3.1 The status of the future ....................................................................... 59 3.2 Patterns and projections: Sociologies of the future ............................ 62 3.2.1 Data and linkage in prediction work ........................................... 62 3.3 Making numbers: Measurement and valuation in prediction work .... 64 3.4 Justification of uncertain futures and the trust in numbers ................. 67 3.5 Concluding remarks: A toolkit with which to unpack prediction work .......................................................................................................... 69 4. Methodology: Tracing Prediction Processes ............................................. 70 4.1 Methodological approach ................................................................... 71 4.2 Methods and data ............................................................................... 73 4.2.1 Learning the ropes ...................................................................... 78 4.3 Coding, analysis, and presentation ..................................................... 80 4.4 Ethical considerations ........................................................................ 81 5. Prediction Work in Mineral Exploration .................................................. 83 5.1 The exploration process...................................................................... 84 5.1.1 Early stage exploration: Desktop exploration ............................. 87 5.2.2 Target generation and drilling .................................................... 97 5.2.3 Geological mapping .................................................................. 104 5.4 Concluding remarks ......................................................................... 106 6. Intermediate and Advanced Stage Exploration ....................................... 110 6.1. Intermediate stage fieldwork ........................................................... 111 6.1.1 Drilling a project ....................................................................... 111 6.1.2 Drill core analyses .................................................................... 114 6.1.3 Environmental investigations and impact assessment .............. 118 6.1.4 Summary ................................................................................... 120 6.2 Laboratories and desktop work: Modelling and prediction .............. 121 6.2.1 Geological modelling ................................................................ 122 6.2.2 Resource classification ............................................................. 125 6.2.4 Summary ................................................................................... 128 6.3 Project feasibility studies: Estimating the net present value of a future mine ............................................................................................. 128 6.3.1 Scoping studies or preliminary economic assessments ............ 129 6.3.2 Pre-feasibility studies ................................................................ 132 6.3.3 Feasibility studies ..................................................................... 135 6.3.4 Blown predictions ..................................................................... 142 6.4 Concluding remarks ......................................................................... 147 7. Justifying Predictions: Claims of Correctness and Desirability .............. 151 7.1 Claims of correctness: Accuracy and precision in prediction .......... 152 7.1.2 QA/QC and QPs ....................................................................... 157 7.1.3 Summary: Accuracy and precision as correctness .................... 162 7.2 Desirable futures .............................................................................
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