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University of Florida Thesis Or Dissertation Formatting Template THE EFFECTS OF CARBON TRADING ON THE SMALLHOLDER LIVELIHOOD PRODUCTION SYSTEM. A CASE STUDY IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON REGION By RICARDO DE ASSIS MELLO A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2010 1 © 2010 Ricardo de Assis Mello 2 To my family that loves me and believes that future is a collective construction 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis could not have been developed without the support of my family, friends, and mentors. First, I thank Dr. Peter Hildebrand, my advisor, for all his help and friendly constructive criticism, which introduced me to a new way of thinking about smallholders. I am very thankful to the members of my committee: Dr. Marianne Schmink for her constant support, especially when I had medical problems and Dr. Daniel Nepstad for his idealistic perspective about climate change. I especially wish to express my deepest appreciation to Marianne Schmink for being a constant source of support and encouragement since I first thought about coming to study at the University of Florida. I specially wish to express my deepest appreciation to Jack Putz for encouraging me to think analytically about of my work. I would like to thank the Amazon Conservation Leadership Initiative and Tropical Conservation and Development Program at the University of Florida for funding my study at the University of Florida. My special thanks to Robert Buschbacher for receiving me as a professional and affording to my family the friendship that made our newcomer life in Gainesville a pleasure. I am grateful to the wonderful people who live in Anapú, Pacajá, and Xapuri, who have taken me into their homes and shared their knowledge with me. I owe them my commitment to make my professional life a constant search for answers to their questions. A special acknowledgment to all my friends that dedicate their lives to make rural communities a better place to live, especially Ana Paula de Souza , Marta, Bibiu, and Guilherme Brito from Fundação Viver Produzir e Preservar, Adair Duarte and Hilza Arcos from Grupo de Pesquisa e Extensão em Sistemas Agroflorestais do Acre: My deepest respect for them. I am also grateful to the Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia for the opportunity to work among the greatest team of professionals. I am 4 deeply thankful to the following colleagues from IPAM: Edivan Carvalho, Luzabeth Assunção, Rosana Gisele, Lucimar Lima, Marcos Rocha, Ane Alencar and Erika Pinto for their friendship, precious support in this research, and insights; I am also grateful to Dan Nepstad and Paulo Moutinho for their elaborated ideas about Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation. I also wish to thank my friends of University of Florida for their support in the academy and in my daily life. Especially to Patricia Sampaio and Jessica Caciedo for their facilitation through the university bureaucracy; Wendy-Lin Bartels, Iran Rodrigues, Rutecleia Zarin, Rosana Resende, Paula Pinheiro, and anonymous reviewers for accepting the challenge of reviewing my English in this thesis, and for sharing part of your life with my family making Gainesville the greatest place to study. Last but definitely not least, I would like to manifest all my love to my family for fulfilling me with love and kindness. Denyse, my sweetest partner in the journey of life, I share this moment with you. I wish to express my deepest gratitude from the bottom of my heart. I also would like to mention the special participation of my sons Gabriel, Naue, and Guto for comprehending my moments of absence. Thanks for the gift that is having Joaquim and Deque as part of my family. Finally, thanks my parents and my Sister Adriana for always supporting my decisions, even the strangest one that was move away from their company to work in the Amazon. ―Mãe! Aonde quer que esteja agora saiba que eu sempre segui... e seguirei, seus ideais de vida‖. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 8 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... 9 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 12 Research Objectives ............................................................................................... 16 Research Sites ....................................................................................................... 16 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 17 Organization of the Thesis ...................................................................................... 18 2 ARE FOREST DWELLERS IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON A ―SOCIAL ISSUE‖ TO BE ADDRESSED IN CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENTS? ............................ 20 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 20 The Role Played by the Brazilian Amazon Forest in Climate Change .................... 21 The Inclusion of Forests in the Carbon Market ....................................................... 23 Who is Driving or Advancing Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? .................... 25 Main Deforestation Drivers ............................................................................... 25 Linking Deforestation to the Actors through Land Tenure ................................ 27 The Protected Areas Allowing Human Occupation ........................................... 28 Deforestation and Land Use Strategies among Actors ..................................... 29 The Actors‘ Readiness to Implement Forest Carbon Deals .................................... 32 Four Reasons to Include Extractivists, Small Farmers, and Indigenous Groups .... 36 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 40 3 A TOOL TO ENGAGE THE AMAZONIAN SMALLHOLDER PRODUCTION SYSTEM WITH THE POST 2012 CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENT ................. 46 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 46 Smallholder Occupation in the Brazilian Amazon ................................................... 47 Land Use Strategies of Amazonian Smallholders ................................................... 50 Factors Affecting Traditional Land Use Strategy ..................................................... 52 Methodology and the Study Sites ........................................................................... 57 Current Land Use in Acre and Pará ................................................................. 59 Understanding Family Land Use Decisions: Typology Based on Source of Income .......................................................................................................... 63 6 Simulating Land Use Decisions in the Acre and Pará Sites Using Ethnographic Linear Programming ................................................................ 66 Validating the Model: The Business-as-Usual Scenario ......................................... 71 Extractivist Production ...................................................................................... 71 Annual Crop Production ................................................................................... 73 Livestock Production ........................................................................................ 74 Perennial Crop Production ............................................................................... 76 First Scenario: Increased Prices of Extractive and Perennial Products .................. 78 Second Scenario: Increased Prices of Annual Crop and Livestock Products ......... 79 Conclusions about the Potential of the Ethnographic Linear Program Models to Understand and Predict Land Use Change ......................................................... 80 Smallholder Heterogeneity ............................................................................... 81 Smallholder Decisions Linked to Market........................................................... 83 4 MODELING EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ON SMALLHOLDERS ................................................................................................. 101 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 101 Importance of the Brazilian Tropical Forest to Global Climate Change .......... 101 Forest-Based Carbon Trade for Smallholders ................................................ 103 Methods ................................................................................................................ 106 Study Area ...................................................................................................... 107 Economic Analyses of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Project Using Ethnographic Linear Programming ........ 108 Data Collection ............................................................................................... 110 Five-Year Model
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