Conservation in an Amazonian tri-national frontier: patterns and drivers of land cover change in community-managed forests Amy E. Duchelle1,2,3, Angelica Almeyda4, Natalia Hoyos5, Matthew Marsik6, Eben Broadbent7, Karen A. Kainer1,8 1School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA 2Universidade Federal do Acre, Brazil 3Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Brazil 4Department of Anthropology, Stanford University, USA 5Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama 6Department of Geography, University of Washington, Seattle, USA 7Deparment of Biology, Stanford University, USA 8Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to compare patterns and drivers of land cover change in 11 Brazil nut-producing communities in the tri-national frontier region of Madre de Dios, Peru, Acre, Brazil, and Pando, Bolivia. Remotely-sensed images with high spatial resolution (Landsat) spanning 1986-2005, complemented by training sample data collected in 2006 and 2007, were used to define forest versus non-forested areas in three communities in Madre de Dios, four communities in Acre and four communities in Pando. The land cover classifications were used to detect areas of change in four paired image dates. Socio-economic data was collected in the communities through annual and quarterly surveys with 63 households in Pando, 59 in Acre, and 28 in Madre de Dios from June 2006 through August 2007. We found minimal deforestation and extremely high forest income dependency in sampled communities. In 2000– 2005, deforestation occurred in already fragmented areas and along roads, with most deforestation in Acre and least in Pando. From 2002 to 2007, higher agricultural income was positively correlated with reported forest clearing at the household level in Pando and Madre de Dios, whereas higher Brazil nut income was correlated with less forest cleared. In Acre, government aid, larger households, and higher value of livestock assets were correlated with forest clearing. These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of community-based forest management in tropical forest conservation and livelihood development. Key words: land use land cover change (LULCC), livelihoods, Amazonia INTRODUTION Community-based forest management is considered an important strategy for promoting conservation and livelihood development in the tropics. Rural communities now own or manage one-quarter of the world’s tropical forests due to recent devolution of formerly government-claimed lands and formal recognition of customary rights (White and Martin, 2002; Sunderlin et al., 2008a). The goals of community-based forest management on national and international levels are to promote ecologically- sustainable management practices, increase the socioeconomic benefits gleaned from tropical forests, and promote greater access to forest resources (Charnley and Poe, 2007). Recent studies have shown that different types of community-managed forests can be equally, if not more, effective in maintaining forest cover than strict protected areas (Nepstad et al., 2006; Ellis and Porter-Bolland, 2008; Bray et al., 2008). That said, many researchers have highlighted the tremendous challenges associated with community-based forest management, including the oversimplified definition of “community” (Agrawal and Gibson, 1999), discrepancies between formal and customary resource rights (Fortmann and Bruce, 1988; Meinzen-Dick and Mwangi, 2008), difficulties in linking communities to markets (Schmink, 2004; Scherr et al., 2005), and challenges in balancing conservation with livelihood development through forest-based activities (Kusters et al., 2006). Communities’ roles in tropical forest conservation are largely based on the social, political and economic contexts in which they are embedded. Much of the literature on deforestation by smallholders has focused on its multi-scalar and interacting drivers (e.g., Wood, 2002; Schmink, 1994). Proximate socioeconomic causes of deforestation include infrastructural development, agricultural expansion, and timber extraction; whereas underlying drivers include demographic, economic, technological, policy, institutional, and cultural factors (Geist and Lambin, 2002). Of 152 case studies on the drivers of tropical deforestation, economic factors were present in 81% (Geist and Lambin, 2002). Economic returns associated with different land uses often affect small producers’ decisions about whether to maintain standing forest or convert it for agricultural or pastoral uses (Angelsen 2006 in Chomitz 2007). Economic models of deforestation have shown that tropical deforestation is higher when land is more accessible, prices are higher for agricultural products and timber, off-farm income opportunities are lower, and long distance trade opportunities are higher (Kaimowitz and Angelsen, 1998; Pfaff, 1999; Lambin et al., 2001; Angelsen 2006 in Chomitz 2007). It is essential to understand the broader context in which forest- based communities are embedded, along with their diverse livelihood strategies, to appreciate their decision-making in regards to forest conservation. The Amazon is the largest tract of contiguous tropical forest in the world, alone containing half of global biological diversity and one-fourth of its primary productivity (Soares-Filho et al., 2004). In the approximately 300,000 km2 border region of Madre de Dios, Peru, Acre, Brazil, and Pando, Bolivia (MAP region) in Western Amazonia, communities own or manage nearly one-third of regional forests (ZEE, 2006; INRA, 2009; SPDA-INRENA, 2003). Many of these communities base their livelihoods on Brazil nuts (Bertholletia excelsa), the most important non-timber forest product (NTFP) in the region. These Brazil nut-producing communities share the landscape with recently settled colonist farmers, cattle ranchers, and loggers. Although the entire region is characterized by lowland wet tropical forest vegetation, settlement histories, patterns of deforestation, public policy, and socio-economic development vary considerably from one country to the next (www.map-amazonia.net). Construction of the Interoceanic Highway, an extension of the Brazilian BR-317 into Peru and Bolivia, is changing conditions in this formerly remote region, by providing regional access to Pacific ports (Figure 1). In Acre, forest conversion has been rapid, extensive, and largely driven by establishment of cattle ranches (Souza et al., 2006). In Madre de Dios, the deforestation process has been slower and patchier than in Acre, and dominated by small farms, although recent paving has concentrated land ownership and increased deforestation (Chavez, 2009). In Pando, deforestation has been minimal, with most land conversion occurring in close proximity to population centers and along the Brazilian border (Marsik et al., in review). 2 Our overall research question is: What is the relationship between forest clearing and sources of livelihood income in extractive communities of Brazil nut-rich forests in the MAP region? To address this question, we present a comparative land use land cover change (LULCC) analysis in community-managed forests along roads in Madre de Dios, Acre, and Pando. While these three adjacent areas have a similar natural resource base, we explore how historical processes, policy changes, and livelihood strategies have differentially affected forest conservation by these communities. Through combining spatial and socioeconomic analyses, the specific objectives of this study are: (1) to compare trends of deforestation and reforestation in extractive communities in the MAP region over a 20-year period (1986–2005); (2) to analyze the spatial patterns and causes of deforestation at the pixel level (i.e., 30 x 30 m) in these communities during the final time period (2000–2005); and, (3) to analyze the socioeconomic causes of reported forest clearing at the household level in 2002–2007. This study illustrates broader issues related to the role of rural communities in tropical forest conservation. Brief History of Settlement in the MAP Region The history of colonization and settlement by mostly non-indigenous extractive populations in the MAP region began in the late 19th century during the first boom of natural rubber (mostly Hevea brasiliensis, but also Castilla spp.). When the price of rubber fell in 1912 in response to the high productivity of established rubber plantations in Malaysia, Amazonian rubber tappers began to diversify their livelihood strategies to include Brazil nuts and agriculture (Fifer, 1970; Barham and Coomes, 1996; Stoian, 2000). In 1931, the Bolivian Suarez Company introduced Brazil nut shelling, supported by a labor force dominated by women as the Chaco War (1932-35) drained male labor in Bolivia (Fifer, 1970). In Acre, a small Brazil nut factory was established in the town of Xapuri in 1933 (Kainer et al., 2003). In Madre de Dios, in addition to Brazil nuts, gold was exploited along the Inambari River (Morcillo, 1982). During World War II, there was a second, smaller rubber boom in which the U.S. partnered with Brazil through the Washington Accords, and recruited a second wave of Brazilian “rubber soldiers” to Acre (Sobrinho, 1992). Although Pando and Acre were legally separated, the border was porous, and more than 2000 Brazilian rubber tappers were employed by Suarez and Hermanos, who at the time controlled 80% of rubber production in the Brazil-Bolivia border region