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The Concurrence of Atmospheric Rivers and Explosive Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Basins

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The Concurrence of Atmospheric Rivers and Explosive Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Basins Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. The concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins Jorge Eiras-Barca1, Alexandre M. Ramos2, Joaquim G. Pinto3, Ricardo M. Trigo2, Margarida L. R. Liberato2,4, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho1 1Non-Linear Physics Group, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Galicia, Spain 2Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal 3Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany 4Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal Correspondence: Alexandre M. Ramos ([email protected]) and Jorge Eiras-Barca ([email protected]) Received: 18 August 2017 – Discussion started: 22 August 2017 Revised: 27 November 2017 – Accepted: 4 December 2017 – Published: 22 January 2018 Abstract. The explosive cyclogenesis of extratropical cyclones and the occurrence of atmospheric rivers are characteristic features of a baroclinic atmosphere, and are both closely related to extreme hydrometeorological events in the mid-latitudes, particularly on coastal areas on the western side of the continents. The potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening has been previously analysed for selected case studies, but a general assessment from the climatological perspective is still missing. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM). Atmospheric rivers are identified for almost 80 % of explosive deepening cyclones. For non-explosive cyclones, atmospheric rivers are found only in roughly 40 % of the cases. The analysis of the time evolution of the high values of water vapour flux associated with the atmospheric river during the cyclone development phase leads us to hypothesize that the identified relationship is the fingerprint of a mechanism that raises the odds of an explosive cyclogenesis occurrence and not merely a statistical relationship. These new insights on the relationship between explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers may be helpful to a better understanding of the associated high-impact weather events. 1 Introduction literature as “bombs”. According to Shapiro et al. (1998), ex- plosive cyclogenesis result from different mechanisms that Intense extratropical cyclones are one of the major natural include upper-level cyclonic vorticity advection, low-level threats in mid-latitudes and are often responsible for large so- warm air advection, and latent heat release. This may be sup- cioeconomic impacts (Munich Re, 2015). Their impacts in- ported by upper-tropospheric Rossby wave breaking, which clude strong winds, heavy precipitation, and in some cases constrains and intensifies the upper-level jet stream and thus storm surges (e.g. Lamb, 1991) In particular, cases asso- contributes to intense cyclone developments (e.g. Hanley and ciated with explosive cyclogenesis (Sanders and Gyakum, Caballero, 2012; Gómara et al., 2014). According to Aubert 1980; pressure decrease larger than 24 hPa in 24 h at 60◦ N, (1957), the latent heating influence is significant not only in or equivalent) are associated with particularly large impacts the pressure distribution but also in the vertical motion field. and often with low predictability (e.g. Wernli et al., 2002; In particular, Aubert (1957) states that this mechanism low- Fink et al., 2009). Such systems are often referred to in the ers the heights of isobaric surfaces in the lower troposphere, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 92 J. Eiras-Barca et al.: The concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis and raises them in the upper. In agreement, Tsou et al. (1987) et al., 2006; Lavers et al., 2012; Liberato et al., 2012; Ramos found that even for cases with strong vorticity advection and et al., 2015; Eiras-Barca et al., 2016; Brands et al., 2017) and the differential thermal advection, latent heat release is still other regions of the world (e.g. Viale and Nuñez, 2011; Ma- primary cause of the pressure falling below 900 hPa during honey et al., 2016; Blamey et al., 2018). the period of most abundant precipitation. The release of la- Given the role of latent heat release in the development of tent heat contributes to increase the storm’s available poten- explosive cyclogenesis, this suggests that explosive cycloge- tial energy, deepening the cyclone while decreasing the hor- nesis in the mid-latitudes may be influenced by the presence izontal scale of the region of ascent particularly in maritime of an AR. Additionally, the release of sensible heat in the cyclones (e.g. Emanuel, 1987; Snyder and Lindzen, 1991; vicinity of the cyclone will enhance the convective instability Davis, 1992). of the AR. Previous studies showed for selected case studies Several studies have confirmed the occurrence of a max- that explosive development can indeed be driven by the pres- imum of latent and sensible heat availability in the lower ence of an AR (Zhu and Newell, 1994; Ferreira et al., 2016). troposphere near the warm sector of the cyclone and docu- For example, Ferreira et al. (2016) have provided evidence mented the contribution of moist diabatic processes such as on the role of ARs over the western and central (sub)tropical latent heat release by cloud condensation processes to the Atlantic towards cyclone development, which converged into intensification of extratropical cyclones (Pinto et al., 2009; the cyclogenesis region and then moved along with the storm Liberato et al., 2012; Ludwig et al., 2014). However, the rel- towards Europe. However, to the best of our knowledge, no ative contribution of diabatic processes to the cyclone deep- ample assessments analysing the role of ARs in the explo- ening may differ considerably from case to case. For ex- sive deepening have been performed from the climatological ample, Fink et al. (2012) showed for selected explosive cy- perspective. The main objective of this study is to provide clogenesis cases that while diabatic processes played a key a comprehensive evaluation on the role of the ARs in the ex- role for storms such as Xynthia and Klaus, other storms are plosive deepening of North Atlantic and North Pacific extra- largely baroclinic driven (e.g. Kyrill and Martin). These re- tropical cyclones between 1979 and 2011 for the extended sults have recently been extended by Pirret et al. (2017), who winter months (ONDJFM), focusing on the spatial concur- provided evidence that baroclinic processes generally dom- rence and the timing of both features. inate the majority of storms. On the other hand, the contri- The manuscript is organized as follows: Sect. 2 describes butions from diabatic processes varies strongly from cases to the data and methods, while the results are presented in case, and are only dominant for 10 out of 58 cases. The role Sect. 3; finally, the conclusions are given and discussed in of the diabatic contribution is strongly related to the period of Sect. 4. time that a storm remains equatorward side of the jet, where warm, moist air is present. 2 Data and methods The higher moisture availability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic basins are controlled by so-called atmospheric We use ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis (Dee et al., 2011) rivers (ARs; e.g. Newell and Zhu, 1994; Zhu and Newell, between 1979 and 2011 for our study. For the cyclone de- 1998; Bao et al., 2006; Ralph and Dettinger, 2011; Gimeno tecting and tracking methodology (see Sect. 2.1), 6-hourly et al., 2016). ARs are relatively narrow (on average 500 km) instantaneous 1000 hPa geopotential height fields at a reso- corridors of enhanced water vapour (WV) transport in the lution of 0:75◦ × 0:75◦ are considered. For the detecting and lower troposphere that can extend for thousands of kilo- tracking of the ARs’ structures (see Sect. 2.2), we used mois- metres. According to the American Meteorological Society ture and wind values at multiple vertical pressure levels to glossary ARs are “a long, narrow, and transient corridor of compute the integrated water vapour column (IWV) and the strong horizontal water vapour transport that is typically as- vertically integrated horizontal water vapour transport (IVT) sociated with a low-level jet stream ahead of the cold front at the same resolution. of an extratropical cyclone”. The definition also states that the water vapour in ARs is supplied by sourced of tropi- 2.1 Cyclone detecting and tracking methodology cal and/or extratropical origin (e.g. Ramos et al.2016a; Eiras et al., 2017) and that ARs can lead to heavy precipitation We have applied an automatic procedure to identify and whenever these systems are forced upward – either by moun- track extratropical cyclones (Trigo, 2006). This particu- tains or by ascent in the warm conveyor belt. Horizontal wa- lar cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm was first de- ter vapour transport in the midlatitudes occurs primarily in at- veloped for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al., 1999, mospheric rivers and is focused in the lower troposphere. The 2002), later extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo, importance of ARs in extreme precipitation events and floods 2006) and finally generalized for both hemispheres (e.g. Neu has been analysed in detail for the west coast of the USA et al., 2013). The scheme is applied to the ERA-Interim (particularly for California) over the last decade (e.g. Ralph geopotential height at 1000 hPa (Z1000) fields. Cyclones are et al., 2004; Neiman et al., 2008; Dettinger et al., 2011). Sim- identified and tracked at a 6-hourly basis at the spatial resolu- ilar conclusions have been reached for Europe (e.g.
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