Revival of a Mid-Latitude Explosive Cyclone Calvin A
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Meteorology Senior Theses Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects 12-1-2017 Climatology of an Explosive Cyclone: Revival of a Mid-Latitude Explosive Cyclone Calvin A. Chaffin Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/mteor_stheses Part of the Meteorology Commons Recommended Citation Chaffin,alv C in A., "Climatology of an Explosive Cyclone: Revival of a Mid-Latitude Explosive Cyclone" (2017). Meteorology Senior Theses. 22. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/mteor_stheses/22 This Dissertation/Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Meteorology Senior Theses by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Climatology of an Explosive Cyclone: Revival of a Mid-Latitude Explosive Cyclone Calvin A. Chaffin Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa Dr. Mike Chen – Mentor Professor of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Dynamic Meteorology Amanda Black – Co-mentor Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa Abstract In 1980, Frederick Sanders and John Gyakum classified the maritime cold season rapidly deepening low pressure system as an explosive cyclone due in part to its intense “bombing” nature. Ever since this phenomenon has been discovered, there have been many, papers, books, and lectures covering the mysterious anomaly. Many scientists attribute the behavior of this weather anomaly to baroclinicity. Baroclinicity is most often conjuncted with vertical shear caused by horizontal temperature gradient leading to the thermal wind in the mean flow. Baroclinicity, coupled with the upper level trough will lead to cyclonic circulation, leading to further amplification of the aloft disturbance, which leads to further intensification. However, not all researchers agree with this theory and suggest that other mechanisms are the cause of this phenomenon. By manually tracking explosively developing low pressure systems through means of NCEP surface analysis charts and OPC products, we are able to determine the forcings behind the low. A key identifier in determining these forcings is whether or not they re-intensify after the initial cyclone decays, leaving behind a residual low that continues to propagate until it redevelops or dissipates entirely. This tells us that baroclinic instability is not involved here and that other forcings are the cause of this intensification. In this study 33 cases of explosive cyclogenesis were collected and analyzed, coming up with 2 cases of reintensification. A revival case and a dissipation case were compared in order to determine what exactly caused on case to dissipate and another to reintensify so long into its life. _____________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction & Background varies at latitudes between 12 mb/day at the In 1980, two researchers, Frederick lowest, towards the equator, and up to 28 Sanders and John R. Gyakum, defined a mb/day at the highest around the North Pole rapidly deepening cyclone that dropped 24 (Sanders and Gyakum 1980). Due to the mb over 24 hours (or an average rate of 1 behavior of this rapidly deepening low Bergeron) as an explosive cyclone. The rate pressure system, the phenomenon was at which this explosive deepening is defined properly named the meteorological “bomb” due to its sudden, explosive nature. 1 Seasonally, explosive cyclones are a baroclinicty near the coast of the Atlantic is primarily winter occurrence, however, there near the Gulf Stream. Sea level are other cases of explosive cyclogenesis temperatures were observed, measured, and occurring during other periods. compared to the colder air temperatures Additionally, this phenomena is an almost coming off the coast. These measurements exclusively maritime event, being found in were taken between 15 and 38 degrees many places around the globe at mid- latitude, which is around the Eastern United latitudes including the Northern Pacific States coast (Broccoli and Manabe 1992). Ocean (NPO), Northern Atlantic Ocean The results of this study revealed to us that (NAO), and the Norwegian Sea, just to the pre-storm baroclinic disturbance was name a few. Many researchers have linked to the formation of cyclones just off contributed this to baroclinicity, otherwise the coast of North Carolina and Virginia. known as baroclinic instability(Wang and This relationship doesnt mean that any Rogers 2000). Baroclinic waves are caused cyclones formed will be stronger (Cione et by a balance of static stability and tropical al. 1998). effect stability along with vertical wind Baroclinicity does not just here are shear. Regions of baroclinicity are defined other factors that lead to explosive by polar jets, frontal boundaries indicating cyclonegenesis. Fu et al. (2014) suggests temperature advections, and density that Latent Heat Release (LHR) played an gradients increasing with height important role in a case involving two stage (Pierrehumbert 1984). In order to look at explosive cyclonegenesis development. this we must first track an explosively During the first stage LHR acted against the convective cyclone as it propagates off of intensification of the low pressure system, the Northern Pacific Ocean and reaches its along with the characteristics of dissipation stage defined by Cyclolysis. precipitation such as the intensity, precip Cyclolysis is a process of decay that occurs center, etc. During the second stage when the cold air coming from behind a development, upper level potential vorticity cyclone has overtaken the inflow of warm, forcings were found to play an important moist air, leading it to deteriorate. The role in the development of the explosive process of cyclolysis is most often ignored cyclone. Similarly, in a separate study in most research regarding explosive conducted by Kuwano-Yushida and Asuma cyclones, however it has become an area of (2008), found that latent heat release played interest to some researchers (Grauman et al. an important role in the formation of 2001). cyclones as they affect upper level jets. This Formation was done by studying a control case then removing any latent heat release in the If we take a look over the Atlantic, atmosphere via a “dry run”, results showed we see that the likelihood of an explosively a significant decrease in the disturbance of deepening event increases with the presence upper level jets which led to a decrease in of pre-storm destabilization. Pre-storm the likelihood of formation. A study destabilization is when low level 2 conducted by Riviere and Joly (2005) set attempting to track the residual low of an out to explore the effect Low Frequency already explosively deepened mid-latitude Deformation field has on explosive cyclone to see if it re-intensifies after it has cyclones. Their study concluded that under decayed. If it does re-develop then we will specific spatial restraints, convergence can analyze it to determine whether or not be effected by deformation when upper level baroclinic instability is the primary jets exist over baroclinic regions. When this mechanism. occurs the surface cyclone can intensely 2.Data interact with the upper level disturbances leading to an explosive growth in the Region cyclone. For the focus of this research thesis, Hypothesis and Research Question the regions that will be focused on will be the North Pacific Ocean (NPO), the Despite the abundance of cases over Contiguous United States (CONUS), and the the many years of research, the mechanisms North Atlantic Ocean (NAO). These regions have been chosen for the frequent amount of that contributed to explosive deepening of cyclones and explosive cyclones they mid-latitude cyclones are still very much produce. The NPO was selected for the disputed today. Many researchers believe main region of focus due to its frequent that regions of baroclinicity were output of explosive cyclones, therefore, we responsible for the rapid deepening, used it as the origin for our cases we found. however, not all cases could be explained by This is because the Taiwanese lows this. Other explanations for this rapid propagating out of the South China sea are able to create these explosive lows that form deepening have been proposed, including over the NPO. Additionally, the interannual the location of upper and lower level jets variability of El Nino events, warm water coordinating with one another to create anomalies propogated up into the NPO cyclonic circulation. (Fu et al. (2014), where the colder Sea Surface Temperatures Kuwano and Yashida (2008)). Then, if (SST) resided and led to explosive cyclone baroclinic environments only account for a genesis during the cold season. The natural minority of the explosive cyclones oscillation of El Nino events over this region has led to the increased frequency of these developed, then there must be other forcings events (Chen et al. 1991). Some important responsible for this. In this research paper regions where cyclone genesis occurs are we will be looking to see if baroclinic from the east side of Japan, to just south of instability is the primary mechanism behind Alaska, however, explosive cyclone genesis the genesis of explosive cyclones. To look occurs primarily south of 50 degrees North into this we will be tracking, observing, and over the NPO (Gyakum