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Jsw Energy Companyname VISIT NOTE JSW ENERGY Riding consolidation wave; new business in focus India Equity Research| Power COMPANYNAME We met JSW Energy (JSWE) JMD & CEO Mr. Prashant Jain to size up the EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS evolving landscape in the power sector and the company’s new business Absolute Rating HOLD initiatives. Key takeaways: 1) JSWE is likely to benefit from consolidation Rating Relative to Sector Performer in the thermal power sector given its balance sheet (BS) strength. 2) Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium Higher merchant prices due to favourable power demand-supply Sector Relative to Market Underweight dynamics and rising fuel cost would force discoms to sign PPAs. 3) Management is long-term optimistic (but sees near-term pain) on renewables owing to the shift towards cleaner energy and expects tariffs MARKET DATA (R: JSWE.BO, B: JSW IN) to settle within INR3.25–4.0 in the medium term. 4) Management is CMP : INR 65 Target Price : INR 72 confident of a successful foray into the electric vehicle (EV) business given opportunity size, structural shift in mobility and potential commercial 52-week range (INR) : 98 / 61 Share in issue (mn) : 1,640.8 parity over the next five years. We like JSWE’s strong balance sheet, M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 106 / 1,461 which can spur growth once demand revives. Our cautious stance stems Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 5,556.6 from its expansion into a relatively unrelated space. Maintain ‘HOLD/SP’. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) JSWE likely to benefit from higher merchant prices, consolidation Current Q4FY18 Q3FY18 Only 20–25GW of stressed operational capacity is likely to be bid out with a change of Promoters * 75.0 75.0 75.0 capital structure and JSWE would play an important role. 6–7% power demand growth MF's, FI's & BK’s 8.1 8.1 6.9 would absorb the excess supply over the next two–three years. JSWE is likely to be a FII's 6.0 6.0 6.4 beneficiary of higher merchant prices (particularly coal’s and transportation costs) that Others 10.9 10.9 11.7 would force discoms into signing medium-/short-term PPAs. Management is also clear * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) about tying up the balance 25% open capacity via a mix of PPAs with discoms/group captive over medium to long term. Coal availability is the biggest challenge to growth. PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) EW Power Renewable an interest area; electric vehicle strategy awaited Stock Nifty Index JSWE is looking to diversify into businesses with better operating dynamics. JSWE is 1 month (3.4) (1.2) 2.9 hence eying renewables and EVs. Management highlighted there could be near-term 3 months (12.1) 4.6 (0.3) pain (aggressive bidding aggravated by depreciating INR and rising interest rates) in the 12 months (14.9) 12.8 (10.3) renewables space with uneconomical projects facing a squeeze. Once the transition is over, rapid capacity addition is likely. Besides, management expects a successful foray into EVs. Currently, China is among the key driver of EVs, and India, which faces similar issues of pollution and urban concentration, will have to tread the same path. Outlook and valuations: Wait and watch; maintain ‘HOLD’ We are keeping tabs on deployment of capital/surplus in new businesses such as EV and their profitability. Maintain ‘HOLD/SP’ with TP of INR72. Financials Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Revenues (INR mn) 82,634 80,490 89,375 97,281 EBITDA (INR mn) 33,244 27,625 31,064 33,389 Swarnim Maheshwari +91 22 4040 7418 Adjusted Profit (INR mn) 6,291 4,959 7,211 9,013 [email protected] Adjusted Diluted EPS (INR) 3.8 3.0 4.4 5.5 Diluted P/E (x) 16.9 21.5 14.8 11.8 ROAE (%) 6.2 4.7 6.5 7.8 September 25, 2018 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Power JSW betting big on EV Structural shift towards electric mobility JSW management highlighted that the policy is being increasingly directed towards tackling rapidly rising pollution and urban concentration in India and one such shift will be towards adopting electric mobility and shared mobility. Pollution levels in India are a cause for concern with nine Indian cities among the ten most polluted cities in the world according to WHO. The government‘s ambitious renewable energy and EV adoption plans highlight the marked shift towards embracing clean energy technologies. Management expects this will drive a structural shift towards EV adoption and reiterated its confidence about its proposed foray into EV business. Table 1: Nine Indian cities among ten most polluted cities of the world Pollution levels in PM2.5 (Annual PM2.5 (Annual India would force City City mean-ug/m3) mean-ug/m3) embracing clean Kanpur (India) 173 Faridabad (India) 172 energy technologies Gaya (India) 149 Varanasi (India) 146 Patna (India) 144 Delhi (India) 143 Lucknow (India) 138 Bamenda (Cameroon) 132 Agra (India) 131 Gurgaon (India) 120 Muzaffarpur (India) 120 Srinagar (India) 113 Peshawar (Pakistan) 111 Rawalpindi (Pakistan) 107 Jaipur (India) 105 Kampala (Uganda) 104 Patiala (India) 101 Jodhpur (India) 98 Narayangonj (Bangladesh) 94 Baoding (China) 93 Source: BBC, WHO database Chart 1: China and India focusing on adopting clean energy technologies 25 21 20 15 15 10 4 5 3 (Number of Cities) of (Number 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 India China Qatar Kuwait Uganda Pakistan Mongolia Cameroon Bangladesh Afghanistan Count of most polluted cities among top fifty Source: WHO Database Cost parity in EV to be an inflection point The Indian government’s ambitious plans for a mass-scale shift to EVs for all new vehicles – personal and commercial – by 2030 has caught the attention of various players in the auto and non-auto industry. The transformative push towards EV holds immense potential, but 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited JSW Energy not without numerous challenges. OEMs are likely to start planning capacities about two- three years before a breakthrough in battery technology. Penetration thereafter is likely to rise at a rapid pace once capacity is in place. We believe 2025 will be a year of rapid strides in EV penetration with 11% of new cars going electric. Two wheelers, given their affordability and ubiquity, should witness even faster penetration and will be a function of the pace of capacity addition. Given the scale of ambitions underlying the shift, our auto analyst envisages India will be at the forefront of the global shift towards electric mobility, and global majors are already sitting up and taking notice. Fig. 1: EV sales to surge post 2022 as they achieve price parity with ICE Source: Edelweiss research Breakthroughs in battery technologies and development of charging infrastructure will notably abate consumer apprehension on vehicle range and availability of the latter. Keeping that in mind, a number of automobile majors are already working on a significant pipeline of electric variants. With ‘range-anxiety’ diminishing, improved economics and a greater choice of vehicles, consumers will increasingly look at EV as their primary choice. Dipping battery costs powering EV viability Despite the plunge in costs, the battery pack still constitutes ~60% of the cost of an EV. We expect battery costs to fall by about 50% (implying a greater decline on per kwh basis) by 2025 driven by sustained improvement in battery in terms of density, size, technology, chemistry, etc. We also assume 3% inflation for an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle primarily due to stricter environmental compliance. Cars: The current breakeven for ICE cars is six years assuming annual mileage of 20,000km. For every 5,000km change in mileage, the breakeven changes by two years. An electric variant will be cheaper than an ICE if the battery cost plummets 50% from current levels 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Power Fig. 2: Breakthroughs in battery technology will drive EV competitiveness Source: Edelweiss research Bus: Breakeven plunges from around 11 to three years assuming annual mileage of 67,500km. A 75% fall in battery cost will make it cheaper than ICE. We expect breakthroughs in battery technology by 2022–23 to spur rapid adoption of EVs across the board. OEMs are expected to start planning their capacity about a year before the expected breakthroughs, and penetration would accordingly rise once the capacity is in place. Returns to be back-ended and a lot is desired to become profitable… JSW plans to bulk up capex to INR65bn over the next three–four years in the EV business. JSWE indicated it has earmarked capex of about INR10bn for FY19 for land acquisition, infrastructure and other backend work for its EV business that might spill over to FY20 as the strategy for rolling out EVs is being finalised. While we remain positive on EV technology, we continue to maintain the cautious stance on the company’s unrelated diversification. JSW is yet to release concrete plans with the EV rollout strategy likely to be adopted. We highlight following risks: 1) Existing OEMs are struggling as EV battery cost makes up 2–2.5x the cost of a conventional car battery, not to mention non-existent charging infrastructure in the country. 2) Diversification from B2B to B2C comes with its own set of risks: JSW Group has successfully diversified into power, cement and ports from the steel business. But so far, the group has primarily catered to B2B segments. The proposed venture is however in the B2C segment. Stepping into auto manufacturing requires: 1) a strong brand, 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited JSW Energy which could take years to build; and 2) a solid distribution network and franchisee.
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