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TATA POWER CO Tata Power 2.0: Realigning Business and Perception E India Equity Research| Power

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TATA POWER CO Tata Power 2.0: Realigning Business and Perception E India Equity Research| Power COMPANY UPDATE TATA POWER CO Tata Power 2.0: Realigning business and perception e India Equity Research| Power Tata Power (TPCL) today unveiled its long-term (FY25) business strategy EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS focusing on: a) Disentangling business operations (from 95 to 40 entities). Absolute Rating BUY b) Prudent capital allocation. c) Balance sheet heft–sustainable D/E of 1.5x and debt/EBITDA of 3.5x. d) Propelling revenue 2x and profit 3x. Rating Relative to Sector Performer Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium Moreover, leveraging its brand value, the company is eyeing consumer- Sector Relative to Market Underweight oriented businesses and planning to transition from a B2G to B2C enterprise (Going Green) as it accentuates offerings in solar rooftop, solar pumps, EC charging, Microgrids, among others. In our view, TPCL’s MARKET DATA (R: TTPW.BO, B: TPWR IN) significant business restructuring plan (including deleveraging) along with CMP : INR 57 rejig of its growth model is likely to have overarching implications from Target Price : INR 75 financial and ESG perspective–gradual re-rating will continue and the 52-week range (INR) : 69 / 27 perception will change to growth orientation. We revise up FY22E EPS by Share in issue (mn) : 2,704.8 10% and SOTP by 25% as we factor deleveraging and restructuring M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 153 / 2,046 Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 9,444.5 benefits. Maintain ‘BUY’ with revised TP of INR75 (earlier INR60). SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Changing perception: From restructuring to growth orientation Current Q4FY20 Q3FY20 TPCL unveiled “Tata Power 2.0 – the story of change”, delineating its next five years’ Promoters * 46.9 37.2 36.2 growth strategy (refer table 1). The company has identified five key focus areas: a) MF's, FI's & BK’s 26.6 27.8 26.7 Solving legacy issues (deleveraging, Mundra resolution). b) Securing financial fitness. c) FII's 10.9 18.6 21.0 Growth orientation. d) Sustainability. e) Creating shareholder value. With higher Others 15.6 16.3 16.1 probability of a successful renewable InvIT, we believe the narrative will gradually shift * Promoters pledged shares : 2.5 (% of share in issue) to TPCL being a growth-oriented company (refer, FY21 beckons turnaround). 3x PAT envisaged; renewable, T&D and new businesses in focus PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) EW Power Management’s FY25 target is to double revenue to ~INR600bn, triple profit to INR36bn Stock Nifty Index and 550bps accretion in RoE to 12% plus. To achieve this, management is training focus on new growth avenues which are less capital intensive, and are also gaining traction– 1 month 16.3 2.7 (4.9) solar EPC & pumps, T&D and renewable businesses. In our view, of the INR24bn 3 months 75.4 10.5 2.5 incremental PAT, INR18bn is from T&D/renewable and balance from new businesses. 12 months 1.8 (1.0) (21.2) Outlook and valuation: Turning investor friendly; maintain ‘BUY’ TPCL’s strategic intent—business restructuring and deleveraging—has started to crystalise and it will go a long way in enhancing investor confidence, in our view. Despite having run up 100% over the past three months, we remain constructive on the stock. We raise TP by INR15/share— INR7 on interest cost benefits, INR6 on CGPL tax synergies, and INR2 value assigned to CESU/Prayagraj. We maintain ‘BUY/SP’. Financials (INR mn) Swarnim Maheshwari FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E +91 22 4040 7418 RetainYear to “BUY March’. Revenues 298,811 291,364 325,239 341,885 [email protected] EBITDA 67,451 79,428 75,208 80,284 Ashutosh Mehta +91 22 6141 2748 Adjusted Profit 7,362 12,014 11,001 15,854 [email protected] Adjusted diluted EPS (INR) 2.7 4.4 3.4 5.0 Price/BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 ROAE (%) 5.1 7.1 5.3 6.8 August 19, 2020 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Edelweiss Securities Limited Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Power Table 1 : Segment wise opportunity and target over the next five years (without eliminations) Segment Unit FY20 FY25E Key drivers 1. Renewables INR bn 42.8 220.0 Capacity GW 4.2 15.0 Annual ordering - FY21-22 (10-15GW) and FY23-25 (15-20 GW). Capacities expected from Central agencies like SECI/NTPC and select state bids a) EPC Utility Revenue INR bn 15 120 Maintain a 20% m/s in 15-20GW annual market. Share of third party EPC projects - 60%, balance 40% self EPC Avg project size increasing from 50-100 MW to 200-300MW b) Rooftop solar Cumulative installation GW 4 20 Rooftop capacity MW 103 1,166 Growth to be driven by expansion in cities via channel partners Rooftop Market share % 5 33 c) Solar pumps Off grid market size INR bn 30 190 On grid market size INR bn 0 130 Solar pumps annual No's 91,000 1,138,000 Cost leadership, operational & collection efficiencies, after market Tata Power annual pumps No's 0 185,000 Tata Power m/s % 0 16 Revenue of rooftop and solar INR bn 6.9 100.0 combined 2. Transmission & Distribution INR bn 119.7 270.0 a) Distribution INR bn 111.9 250.0 Customer base (TPCL) Mn 2.6 20.0 Annual opportunity (avg) INR bn 5,000 NTP recommends privatization, open access, timely cost reflective tariff revisions, extensive metering, etc. Draft Electricity Amendment Bill & National Tariff Policy – Important to of which T&D (annual) INR bn 1,250 kick start investment cycle of which TBCB (annual) INR bn 96 Need for high capacity transmission corridors and dedicated corridors for Renewable Energy AT&C losses % 19.1 10.0 Private participation through PPP & DF in States and Union Territories ACS-ARR gap INR p.u 0.4 0.0 Bring down subsidies - Direct benefit transfer Smart metering % ~5 100.0 Improve efficiency of discoms – penalty for non-performance Private sector share % < 6 States & UT considering privatisation (> 36mn customers) - Odisha (4.8mn), UP (8.2mn), MP (10.2mn), Raj (8.4mn), Jharkhand (1.4mn), b) T&D service revenue INR bn 0.8 10.0 Union Territories (> 3mn) c) Microgrids INR bn 0.0 6.0 3. New business INR bn 0.0 35.0 a) Electric Vehicles Vehicles on road Mn 12.5-17.5 Comprehensive government policy framework to drive growth in EV segment TPCL EV charging points No's 170 > 100,000 Government has approved installation of 2600 EV charging station in 62 cities under FAME-2. TPCL presence in cities No's 20 100 b) Home Automation Market size INR bn 126 800 Rapid adoption of digitalisation and technology, given improved lifestyle and lower cost of connectivity 4. Thermal and Hydro TPCL revenues INR bn 120 130 Thermal no more a growth engine. Focus on improving operational efficiencies. Source: Company, Edelweiss research 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Tata Power Co Chart 1: FY25 target – doubling of revenues (business by business split) 650 12 Distribution - INR 135bn 34 595 Microgrid - INR 6bn 120 520 T&D Service - INR 9bn 140 390 289 Rooftop & Solar (INR bn) (INR 260 pumps - INR 90bn EPC - INR 30bn 130 0 T&D New Others energy FY20 FY25 Revenues Revenues Renewables Turning off thermal Chart 2: Tripling of PAT to be majorly led by T&D and renewables 40.0 and hydro growth Distribution - INR 8bn 2 36 4 engine, TPCL is now Microgrid - INR 1.2bn 7 focused on 32.0 T&D Service - INR 1.8bn Renewable, T&D and 11 new energy 24.0 businesses (INR bn) (INR 16.0 12 Rooftop & Solar pumps- INR5.5-6bn 8.0 EPC - INR 1-1.5bn 0.0 T&D PAT PAT FY20 FY25 Others Consumer Renewable Note 1) Segment wise PAT target is our estimates; 2) Renewable numbers are post eliminations Chart 3: Improving return ratio’s… Chart 4: …and balance sheet matrix 6.0 15.0 > 12.0 > 12.0 4.7 12.0 4.8 9.0 7.9 3.6 < 3.5 (%) (%) 5.6 6.0 2.4 2.2 < 1.5 3.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 RoE RoCE FY20 FY25 FY20 FY25 Net Debt/Equity Net Debt/EBITDA Source: Company, Edelweiss research 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Power Chart 5: Regulated equity to jump by INR 60bn to INR 135bn over FY25 Regulated Equity - FY20 Regulated Equity - FY25 Distribution , Generation, INR 24.7bn INR 42.0bn Distribution, Generation, INR 60.0bn INR 37.7bn Transmissio Transmissio n, INR n, INR 15.7bn 33.0bn Chart 6: Shift in capital allocation : Thermal & Hydro no more a growth engine Capital allocation FY20 Capital allocation FY25 Customer Service Renewable CGPL & Business CGPL & 29% Coal 17% 2% Coal Renewable 39% 32% Reg Thermal & Hydro Reg Reg T&D 18% Thermal & 18% Reg T&D Hydro 31% 14% Source: Company, Edelweiss research Table 2: SoTP valuation (Post dilution) Equity/ Valuation Tata Tata Share Per share Businesses Method RoE CoE Multiple Reserves (INR mn) Share (%) (INR mn) (INR) Regulated biz P/B 44,801 17.0% 12.0% 1.5 69,150 100 69,150 22 Delhi Distribution P/B 15,410 17.0% 12.0% 1.5 23,785 51 12,130 4 Other business (Maithon, P/B 36,083 18.0% 12.0% 1.7 59,616 74 44,116 14 IEL, Power links etc) Renewable business EV/EBITDA 120,354 6.5 24,295 100 37,562 12 Mundra UMPP NPV at COE of 14% (23,442) 100 (23,442) (7) KPC & Bumi NPV at WACC of 8% 167,321 30 50,196 16 Prayagraj NPV at COE of 13% 8,859 26 2,303 1 Restructuring benefits NPV of tax synergies 19,277 100 19,277 6 Cash & Investments FY20 27,937 1.0 27,937 100 27,937 9 Total 217,650 75 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited Tata Power Co Company Description Tata Power is India’s largest integrated power company with a significant international presence.
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