Super Cyclone PHAILIN Across India in October 2013 Dr

Super Cyclone PHAILIN across India in October 2013 Dr. Susanne Haeseler, updated: 18 October 2013

Introduction

On 12 October 2013, cyclone PHAILIN made landfall at India’s east coast in the area of the states of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, formerly Orissa (Fig. 1). Facing the approaching dan- ger, hundreds and thousands of people were evacuated. However, several dozen individuals lost their lives. The caused damage was serious. There was flooding and havoc. As media reports, about 230 000 houses were damaged or destroyed, cars were turned over and trees uprooted.

Fig. 1: Tracks of cyclone 04 and cyclone 05 (Orissa cyclone) in October 1999 as well as of PHAILIN in October 2013. The map section shows the position of the three in the text mentioned weather stations.

But the same region was more affected in late autumn 1999 (Fig. 1). At that time, two cyclones raged in quick succession: cyclone 04 in mid-October and cyclone 05 at the end of October. Cyclone 05, also known as Orissa cyclone or Paradip cyclone, was one of the most intense ever observed in the Bay of Bengal. With winds of up to 250 km/h and flooding, ex- acerbated by a storm surge, it took a toll of about 10 000 lives and left millions of people homeless and without food (WMO, 2000). Further information about the Orissa cyclone is

1 given, among others, by Kalsi (2006) and on the FAQ-page (Frequently Asked Questions) of the India Meteorological Department.

Mass evacuations (in 2013 much more people were evacuated than in 1999) and an im- proved warning system have contributed to a much lower number of fatalities by cyclone PHAILIN in 2013 compared to the cyclones 14 years ago.

Development of PHAILIN

Cyclone PHAILIN originated from an upper low across the Gulf of Thailand on 5 October 2013. On the 8th it became apparent as a depression in the surface pressure field across the Bay of Bengal, and overnight 8th/9th at approximately 13.2 °N, 93.4 °E with wind speeds of more than 34 kn (63 km/h) it was designated as “tropical storm” (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: Observed (black) and predicted (red) track of cyclone PHAILIN across the Bay of Bengal and India from 8 to 14 October 2013. [Source: India Meteorological Department]

PHAILIN moved with about 6 kn (11 km/h) in west-northwest direction yielding sustained winds speeds up to 40 kn (74 km/h) and gusts up to 50 kn (93 km/h). Apart from a temporary weakening during the crossing of the Andaman Islands, PHAILIN strengthened steadily and was declared as “cyclone” on the 10th (Fig. 3).

2 Fig. 3: Satellite image of cyclone PHAILIN across the Bay of Bengal by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the polar-orbiting, sun-synchronous earth observation satellite “Aqua” acquired on 10 October 2013, 07:15 UTC. [Source: NASA]

PHAILIN reached its maximum 1-minute average wind speeds on 11th/12th with 140 kn (260 km/h). This is comparable to a category 5 hurricane. According to an analysis of the Satellite and Information Service, the central pressure of PHAILIN was only 883.5 hPa on 11 October 2013, 18 UTC (Fig. 4).

For comparison: The global record of the lowest central pressure of a tropical cyclone holds typhoon TIP with 870 hPa, recorded in the Northwest Pacific Ocean on 12 October 1979 (WMO). Regarding the 1999 Orissa cyclone, a value of 912 hPa is mentioned as lowest es- timated central pressure, reached on 29 October 1999 at 03 UTC.

Fig. 4: Wind analysis of 11 October 2013, 18 UTC. [Source: NOAA Satellite and Information Service]

The cyclone slightly weakened as it approached the Indian east coast. On 12 October 2013 at 06:00 UTC, PHAILIN had a diameter of approximately 500 km, being within the average size of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. At 12 UTC, strong winds with wind speeds of more than 35 kn (65 km/h) already affected large coastal areas (Fig. 5), though the centre of the storm had not reached the Indian coast.

Fig. 5: Wind analysis of 12 October 2013, 12 UTC. [Source: NOAA Satellite and Information Service]

A satellite image acquired on 12 October, 13 UTC, shows the extent of PHAILIN being locat- ed across the Indian east coast at that time (Fig. 6, right). In comparison to this, a satellite image of the Orissa cyclone of 1999 is shown (Fig. 6, left).

Fig. 6: Orissa cyclone 1999 (left) and cyclone PHAILIN 2013 (right), each across the east Indian coast. Left: INSAT image, acquired on 29 October 1999, 04:00 UTC (0930 IST). [Source: India Meteorological Department, FAQ] Right: Infrared satellite image, acquired on 12 October 2013, 13:00 UTC. [Source: India Meteorological Department, Satellite Images and Products].

According to the Indian weather service, PHAILIN made landfall at the east coast of India in the border area between the states of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha near the city of Gopalpur on 12 October at about 20:30 to 21:30 local time (15 to 16 UTC). Already hours before the landfall, the coastal regions were affected by storm and heavy rains (Fig. 7).

6 a

Fig. 7: Real-time data at Gopalpur (state of Odisha, India) from 11 and 12 October 2013. Time data: local time = UTC + 05:30. [Source: CSIR – National Institute of Oceanography] a) wind speed (in m/s) b) air pressure (in mbar = hPa; blue line) c) air temperature (in °C; blue line) and relative humidity (in %; red line)

At Gopalpur, the air pressure fell to about 938 hPa on 12 October 2013. The wind speed reached up to 25 m/s (90 km/h), and gusts of about 36 m/s (130 km/h).

For comparison: At the weather station of Paradip, being close to the storm centre of the Orissa cyclone in 1999, the wind speed recorders became unserviceable at that time after recording 80 kn (148 km/h) winds around 02 UTC on 29 October.

Figure 8 shows the water levels at the station of Paradeep (= Paradip). The difference between observed water level and predicted tidal water level is called the height of the storm surge.

Fig. 8: Water levels (in metre) at the station of Paradeep (= Paradip) from 9 to 14 October 2013. [Source: Indian Nation Centre for Ocean Information Services] Top: Observed water level (red) and predicted tidal water level (brown). Bottom: Difference between observed water level and predicted tidal water level.

From 11 to 13 October, Paradeep (= Paradip) recorded a noticeable storm surge. There, as well as in other coastal regions, the water exceeded the predicted tidal water level by 1 to 1.5 m.

For comparison: The Orissa cyclone in 1999 caused a much higher storm surge of 5 to 6 m, i.e. the water level exceeded the normal tide by 5 to 6 m.

Besides the storm surge, heavy rains caused extensive floods. At the weather station of Bhubaneswar, a 24-hour precipitation total of 169 mm was recorded on 13 October 2013 at 03 UTC, of which 74 mm fell within the 3 hours from 12 to 15 UTC on 12 October alone.

For comparison: On 30 October 1999 at 08:30 local time (03 UTC), a 24-hour precipitation total of about 520 mm was recorded at the weather station of Paradip. At Bhubaneswar, 426 mm fell during that period. At that time, the soil was already saturated by the torrential rains of the preceding cyclone 04. For example, 267 mm fell at Bhubaneswar in the period from 17 to 19 October 1999.

Frequency of severe cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in October

The Indian weather service classifies tropical cyclones with maximum wind speeds of 48 kn (89 km/h) or more as “severe cyclones”. In the period from 1891 to 2012, the Bay of Bengal saw at most two of these severe cyclones in one year during October; in all it were 39. This implies that people can expect a severe cyclone across the Bay of Bengal in October on average all 3 years.

Sources and further links . CSIR – National Institute of Oceanography. http://inet.nio.org/ . Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): Data archive. . Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): Thema des Tages vom 09.10.2013, 11.10.2013, 12.10.2013 und 14.10.2013. . Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS): Red Tropical Cyclone Alert for PHAILIN-13 in India from 09/10/2013 18:00 UTC to 12/10/2013 18:00 UTC. http://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventid=40489&episodeid=16&eventtype=TC . India Meteorological Department (IMD). http://www.imd.gov.in/ . India Meteorological Department, AWS LAB, Pune. http://www.imdaws.com/ . India Meteorological Department: Frequency of Cyclone Disturbances over North Indian Ocean. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/freq_cyclone.htm . India Meteorological Department: Frequently Asked Questions on Tropical Cyclones. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/faq/FAQP.htm . India Meteorological Department: Satellite Images and Products. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone_fdp/CycloneFDP.htm . Indian Nation Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Indian Tsunami Early Warning System. http://tsunami.incois.gov.in/ITEWS/HomePage.do . Kalsi, S.R. (2006): Orissa super cyclone – A Synopsis. Mausam, 57, 1, 1-20. http://metnet.imd.gov.in/mausamdocs/15711_F.pdf . NOAA Satellite and Information Service, Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA): Archive Data & Imagery. ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/MTCSWA/IO022013/ . Unisys: 1999 Hurricane / Tropical Data for Northern Indian Ocean. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/n_indian/1999/index.php . Unisys: 2013 Hurricane / Tropical Data for Northern Indian Ocean. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/n_indian/2013/index.php . Unisys: Tropical Advisory Archive. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/archive/ . World Meteorological Organization: World Weather / Climate Extremes Archive. http://wmo.asu.edu/ . World Meteorological Organization (2000): WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 1999. WMO-No. 913. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/913_en.pdf