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Singapore Retail Q2/2020

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Singapore Retail Q2/2020 Singapore – August 2020 MARKET IN MINUTES Retail Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information SINGAPORE Marcus Loo CEO, Singapore +65 6415 3893 [email protected] Sulian Claire Executive Director Retail & Lifestyle +65 6415 3880 [email protected] Retail market reels as rents tumble RESEARCH The market is unlikely to witness a major recovery soon as rents and demand Alan Cheong Executive Director are set to soften further. Singapore +65 6415 3641 • Retail sales (excluding motor vehicles) plummeted by a • It is dawning on landlords that the previous market practice [email protected] record 46.3% year-on-year (YoY) in May as receipts for of charging a high fi xed and a low percentage turnover rent Simon Smith categories such as watches & jewellery and departmental has to be recalibrated by increasing the latter component. Senior Director stores saw the worst YoY decline of over 90%. This plus the uncertainties facing tenants may bring Asia Pacifi c Orchard and Suburban mall rents in 2020 down 10% to 20% +852 2842 4573 • Food and beverage (F&B) revenue also declined sharply by and 10% to 15% respectively. [email protected] over 50% YoY in April and May because of the ban on dine-in MCI (P) No. 009/08/2019 with restaurants and eateries being only be able to provide Company Reg No. 198703410D takeaway and delivery. Savills plc “ So long as social distancing Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on • Coupled with a contraction of net demand and addition of the London Stock Exchange. The measures are in place, even company established in 1855, has new retail space, overall retail vacancy rate soared to an all- a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads time high of 9.6% in Q2/2020. suburban malls will be rather than follows, and now has over 600 offi ces and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, negatively aff ected.” Asia Pacifi c, Africa and the Middle • While Savills monthly prime rents in Orchard Area declined East. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may 5.0% QoQ to S$27.40 psf, that in Suburban Area fell by 3.0% ALAN CHEONG, SAVILLS RESEARCH not be published, reproduced or QoQ to S$27.70 psf in Q2/2020. quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior • This tightened the rental gap between Orchard and consent. Whilst every eff ort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Suburban malls, marking the fi rst time where Orchard rents Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or are below Suburban rents since the data was constituted. consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.com.sg/research 1 Retail MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW malls, the shopper traffi c along main shopping GRAPH 1: Retail Sales And F&B Sales Growth, January From advance estimates released by the belts like Orchard Area and Marina Bay Sands 2015 to May 2020 Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), thinned visibly, further weakening the retail F&B Sales Retail Sales (excluding motor vehicles) Singapore’s economy fell into recession in and F&B sales in those areas. As a result, 20% Q2/2020 with a contraction of 41.2% from the vacancy level especially in Central Region 10% previous quarter. Compared with the same escalated in the reviewed quarter as more period last year, the economy shrank 12.6% businesses which have no fi nancial cushion to 0% in Q2, extending the 0.3% decline in Q1. The weather the coronavirus storm left the retail economic slowdown was largely due to the -10% scene. Besides, new leasing of retail spaces implementation of the Circuit Breaker (CB) also took a hit from the lockdown measures, -20% measures beginning on April 7 which halted aff ecting the take-up of new retail space. The non-essential economic activities. In the light leasing of retail space was at a standstill as -30% YOY CHANGE YOY of the lockdown measures, the construction retailers suspended decision-making due in -40% sector and services-producing industries part to their inability to make site visits and shrank in Q2 along with lower construction also in part their eff orts to try to contain cost. -50% output as well as weaker domestic demand in While some tenants and potential occupiers food and retail businesses. -60% may be re-negotiating for lower rents, most Coupled with the sluggish local spending Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul leasing decisions are on hold or pending for Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr amid economic slowdown and job insecurity, re-evaluation. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 visitor arrivals to Singapore also hit historic Source Singapore Department of Statistics, Although there were no notable leasing low levels in April and May, further aggravating Savills Research & Consultancy activities or new deals signed during the the already poor retail sales prior to the lock lockdown period in Q2/2020, the overall down. Despite an uptick in online sales, overall sentiments and rental expectations weakened takings continued to weaken in Q2, falling GRAPH 2: Vacancy Rates, 2011 to Q2/2020 as retailers struggled with anemic sales. The at a faster pace in April and May when most rental index for Central Area fell 4.9% QoQ retail shops were closed due to the lockdown Island-wide Downtown Core Orchard Suburban Area to its lowest point since the data series was measures. Retail sales (excluding motor 12% constituted in 2011. This is in line with the vehicles)1 plummeted by a record 46.3% YoY in rental trend in Orchard Area where most May as receipts for categories such as watches 10% businesses switched over to survival mode in an & jewellery and departmental stores saw the eff ort to stay afl oat amid the travel restrictions. worst decline of over 90% from May last year. 8% In Q2/2020, Savills monthly prime rents3 F&B revenue2 also showed a sharp decline of in Orchard Area was down by 5.0% QoQ to over 50% YoY in April and May because of the 6% S$27.40 psf, marking its second consecutive ban in dine-in with restaurants and eateries quarter of decline. Even though Suburban malls only being able to provide takeaway and are generally more resilient with the nearby 4% delivery. (Graph 1) local catchment and necessity shopping, Savills monthly prime rents in Suburban Area dropped 2% OCCUPANCY AND RENTS TUMBLE 3.0% QoQ to S$27.70 psf in Q2/2020 alongside AS MORE RETAILERS EXIT lower footfall and shift towards online grocery 0% Compared with the early outbreak phase at shopping. This tightened the rental gap the start of the year, the retail market felt between Orchard and Suburban malls, and this full impact of the pandemic in Q2/2020. The was the fi rst time that Orchard rents fell below Source URA, Savills Research & Consultancy eff ects were the result of the CB and social Suburban rents since the data was constituted. distancing measures. With the increasing (Graph 3) number of retail and F&B closures as well as business consolidation which left more MORE MASSIVE CLOSURES AND GRAPH 3: Prime Retail Rents, 2008 to Q2/2020 retail units vacant, island-wide net demand CONSOLIDATION of retail space shrunk by over 1.0 million sq ft As the pandemic hit the global retail industry, Orchard Area Suburban Area 37 (nett), reaching the highest contraction since some long-established brands such as fashion the data was constituted in 2011. Coupled label Esprit, have shut all their stores. Esprit 35 with an addition of 43,000 sq ft of new retail has closed all its stores in Asia, including all space in Q2/2020, overall retail vacancy rate the 12 outlets in Singapore. Home-grown soared to an all-time high of 9.6%. (Graph 2) sports retailer has also closed all the nine 33 Notably, vacancy level in Central Region rose outlets in Singapore after 37 years. by 1.7 percentage point (ppt) QoQ to its highest Some retailers have also started to 31 level of 10.3% in Q2/2020. As the pandemic consolidate to manage their manpower and S$ PSF PM forced more companies to adopt fl exible and rental costs. In June, Muji did not renew their 29 remote working arrangements, the offi ce crowd lease at its Marina Square store, which will in the Central Business District (CBD) has be taken over Eccellente by HAO mart later 27 reduced signifi cantly over the recent months. this year. Lifestyle and design retailer Naiise Owing to the sharp decline in visitor arrivals continued with their cost-cutting measures and 25 and closure of non-essential businesses in ceased the operations at its Paya Lebar Quarter 1 Retail Sales Index at Constant Prices, Monthly (exclude any store when its lease expired in July. The brand online orders which are sent from foreign addresses). Updated as at 20 July 2020. now has a last outlet at Jewel Changi Airport. Source Savills Research & Consultancy 2 Food & Beverage Services Index at Constant Prices, 3 Savills estimated rent for a 1,000-sq ft prime ground fl oor Monthly. Updated as at 20 July 2020. unit let to a fashion retailer.
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