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Singapore-Retail-Briefing-Q3-2020.Pdf Singapore – November 2020 MARKET IN MINUTES Retail Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information SINGAPORE Marcus Loo CEO, Singapore +65 6415 3893 [email protected] Sulian Claire Executive Director Retail & Lifestyle +65 6415 3880 [email protected] A polarized market RESEARCH Rents generally continue to trend downwards alongside weak occupier Alan Cheong Executive Director demand. Singapore +65 6415 3641 • With the reopening of shops and the resumption of dine-in • Notwithstanding a stronger pick-up in shopper traffi c and [email protected] services in the second phase of the post-Circuit Breaker spending in most suburban malls, Savills monthly prime rents Simon Smith (CB), retail (excluding motor vehicles) and food and in Suburban Area dipped by 4.9% QoQ to S$26.30 psf in Q3. Senior Director beverage (F&B) revenue in Q3 showed a slower pace of Asia Pacifi c decline compared to a year ago. • We expect rents in general to fall island-wide with Orchard +852 2842 4573 Road malls the hardest hit. As incomes have taken a hit [email protected] • Even though retail vacancy did not worsen further from Q2 through salary cuts and retrenchments, we expect 2021 MCI (P) No. 009/08/2019 because of supply withdrawal from the market, it remained rents to be biased downwards. Company Reg No. 198703410D at an historic high of 9.6% in Q3 as net demand contracted Savills plc Savills is a leading global real further. estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has • As vacancy levels in Suburban Area eased to 7.1% on the back a rich heritage with unrivalled “ The retail and F&B landscape growth. It is a company that leads of tightened supply, Orchard Area also edged down from last rather than follows, and now has over 600 offi ces and associates quarter’s record high to 9.1%. is evolving quickly with some throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacifi c, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general sectors doing exceedingly informative purposes only. It may • Savills monthly prime rents in Orchard Area fell by 6.9% not be published, reproduced or quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to S$25.50 psf in Q3. This could quoted in part or in whole, nor may well, for now.” it be used as a basis for any be due to a move towards more fl exible and shorter-term contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior leases from landlords who consent to rental discounts to ALAN CHEONG, SAVILLS RESEARCH consent. Whilst every eff ort has been made to ensure its accuracy, curb rising vacancies. Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.com.sg 1 Retail MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW Orchard Road such as Hang Heung, Joy Luck GRAPH 1: Retail Sales And F&B Sales Growth, January Advance estimates released by the Ministry Teahouse and Luke’s Lobster. 2015 to September 2020 of Trade and Industry (MTI) show that Meanwhile, retail vacancy across the F&B Sales Retail Sales (excluding motor vehicles) Singapore’s economic growth in Q3/2020 Central Region, with the exception of Orchard 20% has recovered from the sharp contraction in Area, continued to rise in Q3. This could be 10% Q2. Even though the economic performance attributed to the Work-from-Home (WFH) improved on the back of the gradual culture which reduced the spending mobility 0% resumption of most business activity, the of consumers, resulting in shops facing a Year-on-Year (YoY) growth in Q3 remained reduced catchment. This was particular felt in -10% negative at -7.9%. The retail and food services the Central Business District (CBD). -20% industries are still weighed down by a weak Consequently, rents fell, a trend which labour market and safe-distancing measures began early this year, with our rental index -30% for Central Region falling at a faster pace of YOY CHANGE YOY and this dragged down the performance -40% of the overall services sector. Total 4.5% QoQ in Q3. For the quarter in review, employment continued to shrink in Q3 while Savills monthly prime rents3 for Orchard -50% retrenchment levels were only surpassed by Area fell for a third consecutive quarter to the period during the Global Financial Crisis. S$25.50 psf, down 6.9% from the previous -60% Meanwhile, tourism remains in the quarter. This could be due to a move towards Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr doldrums as the borders remained largely more fl exible and shorter-term leases from 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 shut to foreign visitors. Despite the gradual landlords who consented to rental discounts Source Singapore Department of Statistics, Savills Research & Consultancy relaxation of border controls and quarantine to curb rising vacancies. Notwithstanding requirements, which helped to lift visitor the stronger pick-up in shopper traffi c and arrivals from 3,801 in Q2 to 25,255 in Q3, spending in most suburban malls on the back of larger residential catchment and WFH GRAPH 2: Vacancy Rates, 2011 to Q3/2020 these numbers are still a far cry from the fi ve million visitors recorded in Q3/2019. arrangements, Savills monthly prime rents in 1 Retail sales (excluding motor vehicles) Suburban Area also dipped by 4.9% QoQ to Island-wide Downtown Core Orchard Suburban Area 2 12% and F&B revenue in Q3 also showed a S$26.30 psf in Q3, marking a decline for three slower pace of decline from a year ago as straight quarters (Graph 3). 10% shops began to reopen and dine-in services for F&B establishments resumed in late THE CULLING OF PASSE RETAIL Q2. Nonetheless, discretionary spending MODELS ELIMINATED MAJOR 8% remained muted compared with pre- TENANTS pandemic levels, especially for categories Anchor tenants such as department stores 6% including food & alcohol, department stores have been common in most malls, especially and restaurants (Graph 1). in larger-format shopping centres which have 4% a signifi cant amount of non-prime space RENTS CONTINUE TO SLIDE AMID with minimal visibility. While some serve as 2% SOFT OCCUPIER DEMAND crowd-pullers to help draw traffi c, the exit As more stores reopened and dine-in of such anchor tenants can also backfi re, 0% services resumed, footfall and tenant sales leaving substantial space vacant and aff ecting in most malls saw a gradual recovery from rental revenue if the landlord fails to fi nd a the previous quarter in Q3. Nonetheless, replacement in time. occupier demand did not see a similar Department stores have been generally Source URA, Savills Research & Consultancy recovery, with retail take-up contracting suff ering from declining sales since 2015, further by 538,000 sq ft (nett) in Q3. resulting in some closures and consolidations Although retail vacancy did not worsen since last year. Following the shutdown of GRAPH 3: Prime Retail Rents, 2008 to Q3/2020 further from Q2 because of supply Metro’s fl agship store at The Centrepoint in withdrawal of 570,000 sq ft (nett) from September last year, Isetan ceased operations Orchard Area Suburban Area the market, retail vacancy remained at an at its Westgate outlet in March 2020. 37 historical high of 9.6% in Q3 (Graph 2). Although some operators such as Isetan While retail vacancy in Suburban Area and BHG have no further downsizing plans, 35 fell 1.0 percentage point (ppt) QoQ to 7.1% malls which are largely occupied by such on the back of tightened supply, Orchard anchor tenants may be at risk of a sudden 33 Area remained stable in Q3, edging down surge in vacancies if they were to vacate by 0.2 of a ppt from last quarter’s record their premises in the light of falling sales 31 high to 9.1%. Despite the protracted travel and footfall. This is the case for Robinsons bans which continue to drag on crowd levels which shut their four-storey Jurong outlet S$ PSF PM at JEM in August and will soon exit the local 29 and sales takings in tourist-centric retail destinations, retail occupancy in Orchard scene with the upcoming closure of their last two stores at Raffl es City and The Heeren. 27 Area was supported by recent major openings including Decathlon, Harvey Norman Although most of the vacated space in JEM and JustCo at The Centrepoint, as well as will be taken up by IKEA by next year, it will 25 the debut of some new F&B players along be challenging to fi ll up three and six levels of retail space in Raffl es City and The Heeren 1 Retail Sales Index at Constant Prices, Monthly (exclude any online orders which are sent from foreign addresses). respectively with alternative traffi c drivers Updated as at 20 October 2020. Source Savills Research & Consultancy 2 Food & Beverage Services Index at Constant Prices, 3 Savills estimated rent for a 1,000-sq ft prime ground fl oor Monthly. Updated as at 20 October 2020. unit let to a fashion retailer. savills.com.sg 2 Retail after they move out. Meanwhile, lockdown and year, the total annual supply pipeline4 in 2020 is Coupled with sluggish tourist infl ow, a slow and safe distancing measures for major entertainment expected to be at a low of 329,400 sq ft, below uneven recovery in the labor market weighing on tenants, like Cool De Sac and SuperPark at Suntec the fi ve-year (2015 to 2019) quarterly average of wages and consumer sentiment will continue to City, represented a fi nal blow and forced them out 384,800 sq ft.
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