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Independent Market Overview | by Cbre Pte Ltd

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Independent Market Overview | by Cbre Pte Ltd INDEPENDENT MARKET OVERVIEW | BY CBRE PTE LTD 1. THE SINGAPORE ECONOMY 2. THE OFFICE MARKET 1.1 Economic Overview 2.1 Existing Office Supply According to the Ministry of Trade & Industry (“MTI”), In 1Q 2019, the total islandwide office stock tracked by Singapore’s economy grew by 3.1% in 2018, easing CBRE rose by 2.2% year-on-year to 60.8 million sf. This from the 3.7% expansion recorded in the previous year. was largely due to the completions of Paya Lebar Quarter Growth was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector. (870,170 sf) and Frasers Tower (663,000 sf). Supported by the electronics, transport engineering and biomedical manufacturing clusters, the manufacturing Core CBD (made up of Raffles Place, Shenton Way, sector expanded by 7.0% in 2018. The services sector Marina Centre and Marina Bay), the most sought-after expanded by 2.9% with strong performance from the prominent location for large corporate office occupiers information & communications, finance & insurance and to house their businesses’ front office functions and business services sectors. In contrast, the construction headquarters, accounted for close to half (49.9% or sector shrank by 3.7% in 2018, weighed down by public 30.3 million sf) of the islandwide stock. The remaining sector construction activities. 26.9% and 23.2% of the total islandwide office stock is distributed in the Fringe CBD and Decentralised Headline inflation eased from 0.6% in 2017 to 0.4% in submarkets respectively. 2018. Meanwhile, core inflation averaged at 1.7% in 2018. The latest Monetary Authority of Singapore Economic Tanjong Pagar and HarbourFront/Alexandra Micro-markets Survey expects core inflation to be 1.4% in 2019. The office stock in the Tanjong Pagar1 and HarbourFront/ Alexandra2 micro-markets stood at 5.6 million sf and Economic growth is projected to moderate in 2019 3.6 million sf respectively as at 1Q 2019. The Tanjong due to a weaker external demand outlook and ongoing Pagar micro-market commands 9.2% of the overall market trade tensions. According to official forecasts, the 2019 while the HarbourFront/Alexandra micro-market occupies economic growth is likely to come in between 1.5% to 2.5%. 5.9% market share of the islandwide office stock. Both the Tanjong Pagar and HarbourFront/Alexandra Chart 1: Singapore GDP Growth Rate in Chained micro-markets are characterised by a diverse set of assets (2015) Prices with a wide range of age and specifications. 2.2 Future Office Supply 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% The office pipeline supply for the next three years (2Q 2019 to 2021 inclusive) is approximately 3.4 million 3.1% 3.0% sf. Around 49.4% of the future office supply is in the 3.0% 2.9% Core CBD submarket. By contrast, the Fringe CBD and Decentralised submarkets accounted for 20.8% and 29.8% of the pipeline supply. 2.0% An estimated 1.2 million sf of office space is scheduled to be completed for the remaining of 2019. HD 139 (83,958 sf) is the only notable new supply in the Core CBD 1.0% submarket. On the other hand, the two redevelopment projects (9 Penang Road and Funan) will inject a combined 585,000 sf of new office space to the Fringe CBD 0% submarket. Woods Square will add approximately 534,400 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 sf of office space to the Decentralised stock in 2019. Sources: MTI & CBRE 1 For confidentiality reasons, CBRE cannot provide the full list of buildings in the particular basket. The key projects in the Tanjong Pagar basket are Guoco Tower, 79 Anson Road, AXA Tower, Mapletree Anson and Twenty Anson among others. 2 For confidentiality reasons, CBRE cannot provide the full list of buildings in the particular basket. The key projects in the HarbourFront/Alexandra basket are HarbourFront Tower 1 and 2, HarbourFront Centre, MLHF, Keppel Bay Tower, the office component of MBC I, PSA Building, and Fragrance Empire Building among others. ANNUAL REPORT 2018/19 43 INDEPENDENT MARKET OVERVIEW | BY CBRE PTE LTD The 2020 office pipeline is expected to increase slightly Chart 2: Islandwide Future Office Supply from the previous year. Majority (73.5%) of the 2020 office supply is in Core CBD submarket. This includes ASB Tower (514,000 sf), Oxley@Raffles (312,853 sf) and Afro- 1.4 Asia I-Mark (153,526 sf). Other new office completions 1.2 0.2 include Centrium Square (107,041 sf) and St James Power 0.1 1.0 Station (118,392 sf) in the Decentralised submarket. 0.5 0.8 New office supply is projected to taper to just under 0.3 900,000 sf in 2021. This includes the expected 0.6 1.0 completion of CapitaSpring (635,000 sf) in the Core CBD NLA (million sf) 0.4 0.6 submarket and Rochester Commons in the Decentralised 0.6 submarket. Dubbed to be the first shared Executive 0.2 0.1 Learning Centre in Singapore with a mix of office, F&B 0.0 and hospitality components, Rochester Commons 2Q-4Q 2019 2020 2021 provides approximately 264,781 sf of new office space. Core CBD Fringe CBD Decentralised Tanjong Pagar and HarbourFront/Alexandra Micro-markets The redevelopment of Hub Synergy Point is the only Sources: CBRE enbloc office development scheduled for completion in the Tanjong Pagar micro-market. It will add around 128,456 sf of office space to the micro-market when completed in 2020. and insurance, information and technology, shipping, as well as business services sectors. Demand for office Furthermore, the scheduled completion of St James space in 2018 has been largely spearheaded by firms in Power Station in 2020 will contribute 118,392 sf of office the finance, technology and co-working sectors. The space in the HarbourFront/Alexandra micro-market. islandwide net absorption for 1Q 2019 was 137,936 sf. 2.3 Demand & Occupancy The appetite for growth among agile space operators Total islandwide office net absorption continued to exhibit remained strong in 2018 and into 1Q 2019. WeWork growth in 2018, coming in at 1.6 million sf. The islandwide announced its launch of three new offices in Suntec City office leasing activities were well supported by strong Tower, City House and 8 Cross Street. This translates to office demand from various sectors including financial approximately 2,500 desks in total for the three offices. Chart 3: Islandwide Office Supply, Demand & Vacancy 1.6 8.0% 1.4 7.0% 1.2 6.0% 1.0 5.0% 0.8 4.0% 0.6 3.0% 0.4 2.0% 0.2 1.0% Vacancy Rate Rate Vacancy 0.0 0.0% Islandwide (million sf) -0.2 -1.0% -0.4 -2.0% -0.6 -3.0% 1Q 2017 1Q 2015 1Q 2014 1Q 2016 1Q 2019 1Q 2018 3Q 2017 2Q 2017 4Q 2017 3Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2014 2Q 2014 4Q 2015 3Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2018 2Q 2018 4Q 2014 4Q 2016 4Q 2018 Net New Supply (LHS) Net Absorption (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) Sources: CBRE 44 MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST Meanwhile, JustCo will open its latest space at China Square The recently unveiled URA Draft Master Plan 2019 Central in 4Q 2019. Competition is set to intensify further envisaged the central area to be a vibrant lifestyle with the entrance of Campfire Collective, a Hong Kong- destination with a wider diversity of land uses. Furthermore, based co-working firm. Based on CBRE estimates, the total the HarbourFront/Alexandra micro-market will be the key amount of office space occupied by co-working operators business node within the Greater Southern Waterfront. has doubled over the year to 1.4 million sf in 2018. 2.4 Office Vacancy Tanjong Pagar and HarbourFront/Alexandra Micro-markets The islandwide office vacancy rate compressed by The introduction of Guoco Tower in 2016 to the Tanjong 0.6%-point over the year to 5.3% in 1Q 2019 following a Pagar micro-market has helped to bring up the area’s steady decline over the preceding few quarters amid a overall branding and positioning, contributing positively to broad recovery in the office market. the overall appeal of the micro-market. Tanjong Pagar and HarbourFront/Alexandra Micro-markets The HarbourFront/Alexandra micro-market is located Vacancy rate in the Tanjong Pagar micro-market rose by in the city fringe and offers an attractive alternative for 0.7%-point from 1Q 2018 to 7.9% in 1Q 2019. Over the occupiers. The introduction of the office component at same period, vacancy rate in the HarbourFront/Alexandra MBC I and MLHF has increased the quality of offices in the micro-market tightened by 1.8%-point to 6.2% in 1Q 2019 area and attracted demand by tenants who are drawn to due to stronger take-up of office space at Fragrance the relatively reasonable pricing and large floor plates. Empire Building. Chart 4: Office Vacancy Rate 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Vacancy Rate Rate Vacancy 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0% 1Q 2017 1Q 2015 1Q 2014 1Q 2016 1Q 2019 1Q 2018 3Q 2017 2Q 2017 4Q 2017 3Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2014 2Q 2014 4Q 2015 3Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2018 2Q 2018 4Q 2014 4Q 2016 4Q 2018 Islandwide Vacancy Rate Tanjong Pagar Vacancy Rate Alexandra/HarbourFront Vacancy Rate Sources: CBRE 2.5 Office Rents Office rents have risen in tandem with improving office rents grew by 11.3% year-on-year to S$7.90 psf/ occupancy. Rents of Grade A (Core CBD) office grew for month in 1Q 2019.
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