A Probabilistic Approach to Risk Mapping for Mt. Etna 1 2 2 3 3 VENA PEARL BOÑGOLAN , ROCCO RONGO , VALERIA LUPIANO ,DONATO D‟AMBROSIO , WILLIAM SPATARO 4 AND GIULIO IOVINE 1 Department of Computer Science,College of Engineering University of the Philippines Diliman
[email protected] 2 Department of Biology, Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Calabria 3 Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Calabria 4 CNR-IRPI, Cosenza, Italy In preparation for CMES modelling approach for the evaluation of lava-flows hazard at ABSTRACT Mount Etna (Italy). In their studies, simulated lava flows started from the nodes of regular grids of vents uniformly We evaluate susceptibility to lava flows on Mt. Etna based on covering the study areas. A probability of occurrence could be specially designed die-toss experiments using probabilities for assigned to each simulation, based on statistics of historical type of activation, time and place culled from the volcano‟s events: the spatial hazard was then obtained by simply 400-year recorded history and current studies on its known considering the summation of the probabilities associated to the factures and fissures. The types of activations were forecast simulated flows affecting each point of the study area. In such using a table of probabilities for events, typed by duration and examples, a huge number (over 100.000) of simulations had to volume of ejecta. Lengths of time were represented by the be performed, thus requiring long-running computations for the number of activations to expect within the time-frame, assessment of the hazard. calculated assuming Poisson-distributed inter-arrival times for activations.