IE

Extracted from Economic Trends^ No. 104, .

The index of retail prices, January 1956 to January 1962

Introduction items and of important changes in import prices. The This article is an expansion of an article in the May grouping, which is the same as in the previous article, I960 issue of this publication and reviews the move­ is of necessity arbitary and is based on actual move­ ments in the index of retail prices during the period ments in retail prices. January 1956 to January 1962. During this time the The ‘seasonal’ items are fresh milk, eggs, potatoes index rose by 17^ points. The rise did not occur uni­ and other fresh vegetables, apples and pears, fish and formly; taking 12 months’ periods, mid-January to home-killed mutton and lamb, which together had a mid-January, the index rose by nearly 4-i points in 1956, weight of 93(1). over points in 1957, nearly 2 \ points in 1958, fell by The second category—items for which retail prices half a point in 1959, rose by nearly points in 1960 changed markedly following changes in import prices— and then by over 5 points in 1961. comprises bacon, cooked ham, butter, cheese and The rise was the result of many component move­ chilled and frozen beef, with a total weight of 47. It will ments which were not all similar. Thus the housing be seen from Chart A that over the whole of the six group showed an increase of about 40 per cent, over years 1956-61, apart from a few months in 1959, the the six years and fuel and light, services, and miscel­ index for items affected by changes in import prices laneous goods rises of about 30 per cent. On the other was lower, usually appreciably lower, than the index hand, durable household goods rose by only 2 per cent, for the food group as a whole. and clothing and footwear by 6 | per cent. It is note­ The remaining food items are home-produced foods worthy that the index for food rose by almost exactly which show no important seasonal movement, home- half as much as that for all groups other than food produced manufactured foods and those imported combined, that is by lOj^ per cent, compared with foods (both manufactured and other) which have not 21 per cent. The movements in the all-items and group been subject to any marked change in price in the indices are irregular, resulting from the operation of period covered by the review. This group has a weight various factors. of 210(2). mi) In the last section of the article the annual changes Potatoes, milk and eggs are important contributors I in the all-items index are analysed into changes in the to the movement of the seasonal group. The price 91 sections of which it is composed. It will be seen that 'l>^ trends of potatoes are influenced by two main factors: « \ prices were constantly changing and that movements in the size and keeping quality of the crop and, at the a •1' 5 i t the all-items index were the results of many changes, end of the crop year, whether the next crop is earlier J" some up and some down. or later than usual. The highest prices usually occur in 1*^. The index is calculated monthly, normally in respect the period of replacement of old crop supplies by new, jl^ 'Mr: of the Tuesday nearest to the 15th of each month. and the incidence and amplitude of the seasonal peak During the period covered by this review it had 17 varies from one year to another. The price of milk is r January 1956 as its base date and its weighting pattern usually reduced during the summer, but the period of n;• %- was derived from the average pattern of expenditure in reduction varies; in 1958, 1959 and 1960 it lasted for ' i - 1953 (revalued at January 1956 prices) representative six months, but there was no reduction in 1961. The i | : of the great majority of households in the United price of eggs usually falls in the spring and later rises

i . Kingdom, including practically all wage earners and to a higher level which persists from about August most small and medium salary earners. Although the until the end of the year, but here too the incidence of exact movements between index dates are not known the seasonal pattern varies appreciably from year to the charts in this article use the normal convention of year. The average price movements of the seasonal •4 If 'M joining the points plotted for the various index dates items group is therefore sometimes the result of con­ fr^l by a continuous line. The weights of the components flicting movements in its components. The peaks in S5- SV&: of the index total 1,000 and the weight of each group is , July 1957, June 1958, and June U rXi, Vj_=4.-Sr:^;.•ic-*" given at the beginning of the commentary. 1961 were associated with relatively high prices for potatoes, while the low point in March 1957 reflects The main groups of the index ■ unusually low prices for potatoes and eggs and a drop in the prices of other vegetables, particularly tomatoes. Food {weight 350) High egg prices contributed to the peak in December For this review, the items in the food group have 1957. The relative stability from October 1958 to May been divided into three categories, in order to show the 1959 was due largely to potato prices which were at a effects of the considerable fluctuation of the ‘seasonal’ comparatively high level during most of this period.

(’) The total weight of this group varied slightly according to which vegetables were in season. (*) The exact weight varied slightly according to the distribution of the weight for vegetables between fresh vegetables in season (see footnote (') ) and canned and frozen vegetables. 74

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^tome-produced foods easonal movement, hom^ those imported f other) which have not 0 change in price in the '’• This group has a weight

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In most years there is a low point in September. The Housing {weight 87) fact that the seasonal pattern varies considerably from The rents of most privately-owned dwellings let year to year both in timing and degree of fluctuation unfurnished to the types of household covered by the makes it particularly difficult to estimate a normal index were subject to control throughout the six years seasonal movement. 1956-1961, although some dwellings were decontrolled The pattern of price changes for the second group of and others are becoming decontrolled under the items was quite different. Throughout the period provisions of the Rent Act, 1957. Before October 1957 covered by this review apart from the months October the only changes in rents permitted for most of these 1959 to , the- average price of butter was dwellings were in respect of local rates, although the lower (and usually substantially lower), than at the Housing Repairs and Rents Acts which came into effect base date in January 1956, the lowest levels being in 1954 permitted increases in the net rents of some recorded in May and June 1958. During 1957 and dwellings in certain circumstances. However, relatively most of 1958, the average price of cheese also was lower few increases resulting from this legislation were than in January 1956, reaching its lowest level about reported in 1956 and 1957. The general increases the end of 1957. However, by the end of 1958, it was permitted by the Rent Act, 1957, in the net rents of well above the base level and rose further during 1959. privately-owned dwellings let unfurnished, began to take The average price fell again in the spring of 1960 to effect in October 1957, but by January 1962 few new just below the January 1956 level and subsequently increases in controlled rents under this Act were being remained relatively stable. The average price of im­ reported, although increases were still occurring as ported beef rose markedly between March and October dwellings became decontrolled through change of 1958 and continued fairly stable at the higher level tenancy. during the remainder of the period covered by this review. The rises in the index for the group between The rents of dwellings owned by local authorities are not subject to the Rent Restrictions Acts, and the April and June 1957 and between June and September average net rents of these dwellings rose in each of the 1960 and the falls between January and and years 1956-1961. between June and were due largely to changes in the price of bacon. The average amount of local rates and water charges As will be seen from Chart A the index for the other payable on dwellings rose from April 1956 when the new rates and water charges were levied on the basis food group rose sharply in 1956, was relatively stable I from March 1957 to , but thereafter con­ of the revised rateable values resulting from the tinued to rise throughout the period under review. general revaluation of properties in and The rises in March and were largely due Wales. The average level of rates and water charges to increases in the prices of bread following a reduction in England and Wales rose sharply in April 1957 and *J. *. less sharply in April in each of the years 1958 to 1961. I*tV'- ^ * ' !i in the bread subsidy in February, and the withdrawal \] ’1 of the remaining subsidy and the removal of price The average level of rates and water charges in Scotland control at the end of September. The rise between also rose in each of the years covered by this review, December 1956 and January 1957 was due mainly to except 1959. increases in the prices of tea and sugar. Since March Costs of repairs and maintenance of dwellings rose 1960 the increases have been fairly general. in each year, the largest changes occurring in 1956 and 1961. After rising in 1956 and 1957, the costs of Alcoholic drink and tobacco {weight 151) materials for home repairs, decorations, etc., were o:^ The largest movements in the index for alcoholic relatively stable in 1958 and 1959, but rose again in drink and tobacco have resulted from changes in cus­ I960 and 1961. (Q toms and excise duties. Prices of cigarettes and pipe Fuel and light {weight 55) tobacco rose by about 5 per cent., about per cent, and nearly 8 per cent, following increases in duty in The regular fluctuation of this group reflects the April 1956, and , respectively. The seasonal movements in the prices of household coal reduction in beer duty in April 1959 lowered the and coke. There was also an upward movement which was most marked in , July 1957 and October V .* • :i alcoholic drink component by about 1 \ per cent., while the increases in duties on beer and spirits at the I960 when pithead prices of coal were increased. The end of July 1961 raised the component by about 6 per August 1957 index also reflects some further increase cent. Other changes included increases in the average in coal prices because of higher freight charges. The prices of beer in the summer of 1956, in March and decontrol of retail coal and coke prices in July 1958 had August 1957, and between mid-May and mid-July 1961, little immediate effect on prices. The average levels of and rises in the average price of spirits in October 1957 charges for gas and electricity rose in most years, the and July 1961. Increases in the prices of cigarettes and largest rises occurring in 1956, 1957 and 1961 in the tobacco raised the index in September 1957 and June case of gas and in 1957 and 1961 in the case of electricity. 1961, and increases in the prices of tobacco in September After rising appreciably towards the end of 1956, the 1959. average price of paraffin fell during the years 1957-1959,

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’bed*11^4 through change “of wied by local authonijes K etnctions Acts, and the ^'elluigs rose in each of the

^ rates and ft’ater charges roni April 1956 when the s were levied on the basis alues resulting from the Dperties in England and f rates and water charges sharply in April 1957 and of the yean 1958 to 1961. j water charges in Scotland irs covered by this review,

77

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f II9 CHART C Index of retail prices - Transport 111 CllS' 17 Ja n . 1956 = 100

fgdiO’ uc<\j’2 pottery’< ^tax,rr^ - K purcb^ coDtnbut® The Apr ol floors

lax purchaser^ lowered t ances „ 5 9 figure sho' o n tnany i t ^ . v r , television sets, resulted in a n Excluding pure lively stable in I in 1959. but ros Clothing and L-O Si Apart from t 1959 when prii Kr**fiT the index for tb out the six yeai

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•V but rose again in 1961, partly on account of an increase The rise of over two points between August and in customs and excise duties. October 1956 reflected increases in cinema prices and in charges for some telephone calls. The rise of points Durable household goods {weight 66) between August and October 1957 resulted from in­ Articles in the durable household goods group creases in cinema prices and postal and telephone charges. Increases in charges for admission to football Hs include furniture, floor coverings and soft furnishings, radio, television, and other household appliances, matches were largely responsible for the rises in the pottery, glassware, hardware, etc. Changes in rates of index in and . The dip purchase tax, nearly all of which have been downwards, shown by the chart early in most years reflects a tem­ have contributed to the stability of the index for this porary seasonal reduction in charges for dry cleaning. l« group. The April 1957 index reflected reductions in the Transport and vehicles {weight 68) chiriej prices of floor coverings and many articles of hardware, chinaware, etc., resulting from reductions in the rates of The transport and vehicles group is divided into two tax. Purchase tax reductions on some household appli­ sub-groups covering motoring and cycling, and fares ances lowered the index in May 1958, while the April and other transport. The fares and other transport 1959 figure showed the effect of purchase tax reductions index rose in the first half of 1956 because of increases on many items in this group, particularly radio and in the average level of road passenger transport fares. television sets. Increases in the rates of purchase tax Both indices rose sharply at the end of 1956 as a con­ resulted in a rise in the group index in . sequence of the ‘Suez’ increase in the duty on petrol Excluding purchase tax changes, this index was rela­ and diesel motor fuel and both indices fell as a result l» tively stable in 1958, showed a slight downward tendency of the withdrawal of that increase in April 1957. in 1959, but rose in other years. Subsequently the two indices diverged. That for motor­ ing and cycling remained fairly stable over the rest of Clothing and footwear {weight 106) the period, a fall in the average level of prices of Apart from the period between March 1958 and May second-hand cars offsetting increases in the rates of 125 1959 when prices were either stable or falling slightly excise duty on motor vehicle licences and duty on the index for the group rose slowly but steadily through­ petrol, and increases in maintenance charges and out the six years. insurance. The index for fares and other transport • « charges rose sharply under the influence of increases in I Miscellaneous goods {weight 59) railway fares in September 1957 and in the average 120 This group covers a wide range of commodities level of road passenger transport fares later in that including books, newspapers and periodicals, medicines year. Further increases in both road and rail fares and toilet requisites, soap, detergents and household caused the index to continue to rise during the remainder polishes, and various articles such as tennis rackets, of the period covered by this survey. I gramophone records and camera film. Price increases IIS for most of these commodities took place, but rises Changes in the 91 sections of the index in the prices of newspapers and periodicals have been The charts above show the movement of the main responsible for over two-fifths of the increase in the groups of the index, but within each group there were group index. Prices of nearly all national daily, Sunday many divergent price movements and it is illuminating and London evening newspapers were raised in October to analyse the distribution of price movements in various 110 1957; prices of London evening newspapers were periods. The index comprises 91 different section indices raised again in and those o f national and the effect of a price change in any section on the Sunday and of national daily newspapers in January all-items figure depends both on the magnitude of the and , respectively. Part of the rise in the price movement and on the weight o f the section group index in March 1961 was due to increases in concerned. Table 1 shows for each of the six years 105 k'- / the charges for medicines, etc., supplied under the under review the number of section indices which I national health service. Some items included in this changed by various percentage ranges in each year, group are subject to purchase tax and the prices of the total weight of the sections in each range and the r these items reflected reductions in the rates of tax in effect of the changes in each range on the all-items May 1958 and April 1959 and increases in July 1961. figure. It will be seen that the period of relative stability l(fi Services {weight 5S) of the all-items figure in 1959 was not characterised by a large reduction in the number of section indices This group covers a wide range of services, and the which changed, but rather by a more even balance of price indicators used include various postal and the increases and decreases which took place. r telephone charges, radio and television licences, cinema Thus the total number of section indices which and football match admission prices, and charges for changed ranged from 79 in 1958/1959 to 88 in 1961/1962. 0 domestic help, hairdressing, boot and shoe repairing, The number of section indices which rose was at its laundering, dry cleaning, etc. Rises in prices occurred lowest, 44, in 1958/1959 and at its highest in 1956/1957 fairly uniformly over practically all the items priced. and 1961/1962 when it was 77 and 74, respectively. 7 9

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• K \ 71-?hU- <■- I. 4 Another approach to this type of analysis is to con­ weight of over 1 per cent, of the total index, has a sider the distribution of price changes according to the significant effect on the all-items figure. The Table magnitude of their effects on the index. This is shown shows that the relative stability of the index in 1959/1960 in Table 2. It will be clear that a marked change was largely dependent on marked price decreases in a in the price of a commodity or service which, by virtue very few items which carried important weights. of its importance in the pattern of consumption has a Ministry o f Labour

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1957 'll: rtift*'' JuneMn '•* APPENDIX htJSLJab * 5e^ffbef Percentage change in section index T A B L E I Oeesw^ Aggregate effect of Number of sections Aggregate base dace changes on index 1958 Percentage change in febnary section index. weight of sections ('alMtems* poincs) Mifdi mid-January to mid-January 195^ 1957/ 1958/ 1959/ 1960/ 1961/ 1956/ 1957/ 1958/ 1959/ 1960/ 1961/ 1956/ 1957/ 1958/ 1959/ 1960/ 1961/ April 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 June Per cent July ft* or more ... 1 1 3 27 15 7 39 l-l 0 6 0 3 12 AuptfC 1,, Septeniber but /ess than 30 • • • 1 2 \ 3 31 12 0*1 0 7 0-3 but /ess than 20 It 4 3 6 123 J39 60 31 87 1*7 2 2 1 2 0 5 1 0 October b*TT'*r-jL***^ but /ess than • • 10 4 6 10 25 294 134 21 49 134 285 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 1*3 2 5 No*reinber but /ess than 3 2 3 8 7 27 19 44 20 138 93 0*1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 7 0 6 December i but iess than 8 4 5 7 5 99 93 47 94 90 31 0*3 0 4 0*2 0*4 0 4 0-1 but /ess than 12 5 6 9 15 69 232 81 82 92 135 0*2 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 1959 January but /ess chan 14 8 II 10 9 83 114 76 100 96 76 0 1 0 2 0*1 0*2 0*1 0 1 February ;>'>j /ess than I •. 7 14 18 It 4 131 81 165 194 136 29 0 1 0*1 0 1 0 1 Hardi Apnl All increases 67 44 50 58 74 853 830 552 551 717 775 5 6 5 2 3 2 16 3 3 5 6 May ■ # | ’ i N o change <. • 5 12 9 9 3 12 14 153 48 43 35 — June All decreases 19 35 32 24 14 135 156 295 401 240 190 1 2 1 5 0 9 2-1 0 9 0 6 July Aufutt !• n; /ess than I «• • 3 IS 9 8 5 10 37 129 170 67 70 0 1 September 1 but /ess chan 2 8 7 8 4 — 75 42 88 44 — 0-1 0 1 0 1 Octobtf 2 but /ess than 3 3 2 4 1 1 48 14 7 32 II 25 0 1 0*1 0 1 Nowmber 3 but /ess than 4 2 3 4 1 24 17 23 25 4 0-1 0-1 0*1 0*1 Deamber 0 1 0 1 0 1 4 but /ess than S • • * 2 4 2 16 24 18 0 2 1^.' 5 but /ess chan 10 5 2 5 2 3 II 33 18 55 33 35 0 1 0 2 0*1 0-5 0-2 i860 January 0 4 0 7 0-2 0 2 10 but /ess chan 20 2 1 2 1 1 15 24 19 62 7 16 0 2 0 6 Ftbnary 20 but /ess than 30 1 1 27 8 w 12 0 7 0-3 0 3 March... 7 15 — 0 2 0 7 30 o r more • • • • > > 1 1 April M^r . June inly ... Abfust September Effect on index of change in section index OoDber Movember D ean b er T A B L E 2 1861 Aggregate effect of ^bnurv Effect on index of change Number of sections Aggregate base dace changes on index MinJj. in section index. weight of sections (*all-icems* points) April mid-January to mid-January / 1961/ ('all-items' points) 1956/ 1957/ 1958/ 1959/ 1960/ 1961/ 1956/ 1957/ 1956/ 1959/ 1960/ 1961/ 1956/ 1957/ 1958/ 1959/ June 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 July + 0*5 or more JPiember + 0*4 but /ess chan 0*5 + 0*3 but /ess than 0*4 ^ember + 0*2 but /ess than 0*3 + 0*1 but /ess than 0*2 + 0*05 but /ess than 0 I + /ess than 0*05 ...

All increases N o change • • > All decreases • • • • > I

/ess than 0*05 ... 14 102 0 3 0*05 buc /ess than 0* 1 0* I buc /ess than 0*2 0*2 but /ess chan 0*3 0 4 0 3 0*3 but /ess chan 0*4 19 12 0*4 buc /ess than 0*5 I 3 o r more 66

80

V' . . '“lal Index of retail prices: Analysis of the food group ^ ^dex i« e T A B L E 3 (17 January 1956 a 100) Items the prices «ia of which have A ll item s A ll food Seasonal items been affected Other food (•) considerably item s by changes in import prices (•)

Weights 1,000 350 92^94^ 47 2 l0 {-2 0 8 i

1956 January 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 February ... 100 0 99 6 101 2 98 7 99-1 March ... 101 3 102 9 110-3 99 1 100 4 A p ril ... ».' )02-7 106 0 121 1 97 9 101 1 May >. • 102 5 104-2 115 5 9S-3 lO M June *•. . *« 102 4 102 9 109 0 97-7 101 3 July )02 0 101 1 101 8 99 2 101 2 August * •« 102 3 101 7 104 2 98 2 101 3 September • *. 102 1 100 8 99 4 101 0 101 3 O ctober •« I 102 7 101 8 97 8 10) 6 .J03-7 N ovem ber 103 1 t02-5 100 8 99 8 103-9 Decem ber 103 4 102 3 97 9 99 7 104 9

1957 January ••» 104 4 104 0 100 4 97 7 107 0 February ««• 104 3 103 S 97 9 96 0 107 6 March ... «•. 104 1 102 ( 94 6 91 4 107*9 A p ril I.. 104 5 102 7 97 9 87 3 108 3 May «•• 104 6 103 9 100 8 89 5 108 5 June ••. «•» 105*7 106-7 110-5 95 2 107 7 July •«. * • • 106-6 108 4 117 1 95-8 107-3 August 106-4 106 9 115 4 92*9 106 2 Septem ber * *s 106 1 104 8 107 2 93 8 106 1 O ctober • * . 107-1 104 7 109-3 89 4 106*1 N ovem ber • • « «• 107 7 104 8 112-0 86 0 105-8 Decem ber . •• . . I 106 2 106 0 116 5 8S-8 105 9

1958 January «•» ••• 108 1 105 4 114-8 85 0 105 7 February . •' 107-6 103 9 n o 8 83 1 105 5 March ... 108 4 105 7 114 8 85 2 106-2 A p ril ... • *. • m\ 109 6 108 7 123-9 86 8 106 9 May 109 2 108-5 123 3 86 4 106 9 June « •• 110-2 no 9 128 7 88 3 108 1 July ... 108 5 106 0 110-6 89 3 107 7 August 108 3 105 2 107-1 89 9 107*8 September 108 4 105 6 106 0 94 2 107 9 O ctober • • « 109 4 108-1 113 9 9 6 0 108-2 N ovem ber 109 8 108 4 112 9 100 7 108-1 Decem ber . •• • • • 110 2 109-2 114-1 104 0 108 2 ' - m . 1959 January *.« n o 4 109 8 115-4 105 1 108 3 February • *. *«• 110*3 109 1 113-1 104-9 108 3 March «*« ««• ••» NO 3 108 9 114-6 100 6 108 3 A p ril ... . •. 109 5 ioa 6 114 3 98 4 108 4 May •. > ... 109 1 108 1 112-2 100 1 108-2 June ... .. > 109 3 108 4 112-8 99 6 108-4 July 109 0 107 4 108 2 102 1 108-3 August 109 3 108-1 107-7 108 2 108-3 September .. • ... 108 7 106 1 99 8 109 7 108 2 O ctober 109 2 107-4 105-0 M O O 107 9 Novem ber no 0 108 2 107-2 1121 107 8 Decem ber ... NO 2 108-7 109 5 110 1 108 0

I960 January ...... 109 9 107 8 106 9 108 2 108 1 February ....«.... 109 9 107-4 107 3 104 3 108 1 March ...... 109 7 106 8 107 2 100 7 107-9 A p ril ... NO 3 106 6 108 1 97 0 108-1 May 110-3 107-3 109-7 96 6 108 6 June ... *«. 110-9 108 9 115-4 96 6 108 7 July ... ••• I I I -1 108 8 114-1 98 4 108 8 August n o 4 106 4 103-7 fOI 4 108-7 September • t . ...# 110 5 106-1 102-1 101 6 108-9 O ctober i n 4 107-4 107 3 101 0 108 9 Novem ber 1 1 1 9 107 6 107 8 101 8 108 9 Decem ber ... >.. 112 2 108-1 108-0 103 4 109 2

1961 January ... H2-3 107 7 107-4 101 2 109 4 February 112-3 107-5 107 5 99 0 109 3 March ... • *« 112 7 107 4 108 3 96 7 109 4 A p ril ... 113-3 108 0 109 4 98 3 109-6 May ... 113 6 109-5 114 4 99 8 109-5 June ... 114 6 1 1 1 4 121 8 99 6 109 4 July ... . . * •»» . .1 114 6 110-7 119 8 97 2 109 6 August 115-7 109 9 117 4 95 7 109 7 September I.. 115 5 108-5 113 4 94*3 109 6 O ctober «•« 115 7 108 0 113 2 91 0 109-5 Novem ber «•« 116 9 109 8 1 IB 4 93 2 109-6 December ... 117*1 n o 2 118-5 95 6 109 8 114 5 n o 7 119 3 97 1 n o 0

81

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