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Review of environmental multi- hazards research and risk assessments ENGINEERING GEOLOGY & INFRASTRUCTURE Programme Open Report OR/18/057 BRITISH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ENGINEERING GEOLOGY & INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMME OPEN REPORT OR/18/057 The National Grid and other Ordnance Survey data © Crown Copyright and database rights Review of multi-hazards research 2018. Ordnance Survey Licence No. 100021290 EUL. and risk assessments Keywords Multi-hazards, risk assessment, NERC. R Ciurean, J Gill, H J Reeves, S O'Grady, T Aldridge Front cover Multi-hazard word cloud. Contributor/editor Bibliographical reference K Donald, V Banks, R Dankers & S Cole CIUREAN, R; GILL, J; REEVES, H J; O'GRADY, S; ALDRIDGE, T 2018. Review of environmental multi- hazards research and risk assessments. British Geological Survey Open Report, OR/18/057. 86pp. Copyright in materials derived from the British Geological Survey’s work is owned by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and/or the authority that commissioned the work. You may not copy or adapt this publication without first obtaining permission. Contact the BGS Intellectual Property Rights Section, British Geological Survey, Keyworth, e-mail [email protected]. You may quote extracts of a reasonable length without prior permission, provided a full acknowledgement is given of the source of the extract. Maps and diagrams in this book use topography based on Ordnance Survey mapping. © UKRI 2018. All rights reserved Keyworth, Nottingham British Geological Survey 2018 BRITISH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY The full range of our publications is available from BGS British Geological Survey offices shops at Nottingham, Edinburgh, London and Cardiff (Welsh publications only) see contact details below or shop online at Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham www.geologyshop.com NG12 5GG The London Information Office also maintains a reference Tel 0115 936 3100 collection of BGS publications, including maps, for consultation. BGS Central Enquiries Desk We publish an annual catalogue of our maps and other publications; this catalogue is available online or from any of the BGS shops. Tel 0115 936 3143 email [email protected] The British Geological Survey carries out the geological survey of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (the latter as an agency service BGS Sales for the government of Northern Ireland), and of the surrounding continental shelf, as well as basic research projects. It also Tel 0115 936 3241 undertakes programmes of technical aid in geology in developing email [email protected] countries. The Lyell Centre, Research Avenue South, Edinburgh The British Geological Survey is a component body of UK Research EH14 4AP and Innovation. Tel 0131 667 1000 email [email protected] Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD Tel 020 7589 4090 Tel 020 7942 5344/45 email [email protected] Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3AT Tel 029 2167 4280 Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB Tel 01491 838800 Geological Survey of Northern Ireland, Department of Enterprise, Trade & Investment, Dundonald House, Upper Newtownards Road, Ballymiscaw, Belfast, BT4 3SB Tel 01232 666595 www.bgs.ac.uk/gsni/ Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon SN2 1EU Tel 01793 411500 Fax 01793 411501 www.nerc.ac.uk UK Research and Innovation, Polaris House, Swindon SN2 1FL Tel 01793 444000 www.ukri.org Website www.bgs.ac.uk Shop online at www.geologyshop.com Foreword The work described in this report is a “Review of environmental multi-hazards research and risk assessment approaches” for the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through a UKRI contract for services (CR18075) and was compiled and led by a BGS consortium, supported by Natural Hazard Partnership (NHP) partners (HSE, CEH, and Met Office). Multi-hazard research is in its infancy, despite the growing attention it has received in the last years. Climate change, natural and anthropogenic hazards result in multi-hazard environments characterized by complex, interacting processes that generate impacts on the built environment and people, which are different to those incurred from the individual hazards happening in isolation. The recently developed methodologies for multi-hazard risk assessment processes represent an advancement in our understanding of these complexities, but they also pose specific challenges to policy makers and practitioners due to the cross-disciplinary nature required to undertake these assessments. This review strives to present an impartial and well-evidenced report of current developments in research, policy and industry with respect to multi-hazard processes and risk assessments. The need for such studies is now more apparent than ever, given the expected effects of climate change on the frequency and magnitude of weather-related hazards. Acknowledgements It is important to acknowledge that this report is a collaborative achievement. We express here our appreciation of all those who have contributed to its compilation. In particular, this report was only possible because of the hard work and dedication of our NHP partners: HSE, CEH and the Met Office. In addition to the project partners, key staff have helped to review draft chapters of this report. Of the many individuals who have contributed to the project, we would particularly like to thank Vanessa Banks (BGS) and Ruth Hughes (NERC) for the support offered throughout all stages of this study. In addition, Flavia Villarroel (BGS) has also contributed to the production of this report. Their assistance is much appreciated. A large number of individuals from academia, NGO, policy and industry representatives have contributed to the outcome of this project. In addition to offering their time to directly contribute to the stakeholder survey, many have freely given their advice, and provided specific knowledge and information so important for achieving the project objectives. i Contents FOREWORD ............................................................................................................................................... I ACKNOWLEDGMENTS........................................................................................................................... I CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................ II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... IV 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 2 1.1 Aims, objectives and methodological approach .................................................................... 3 1.2 Work package management and outputs ............................................................................... 3 2 STATE-OF-THE-ART MULTI-HAZARD REVIEW AND MAPPING OF THE PAST/CURRENT/PLANNED RESEARCH (ACADEMIA, INDUSTRY & POLICY) .................... 7 2.1 Summary of past and current projects, research and approaches in multi-hazard processes, impact and risk assessment ........................................................................................................ 7 2.2 Summary of case study evidence of the societal and economic consequences of multi- hazard events ............................................................................................................................ 19 3 INDUSTRY & POLICY PRACTITIONER’S VIEWS ON MULTI-HAZARDS ......................... 24 3.1 Stakeholder identification and mapping ................................................................. 24 3.2 Stakeholder survey .................................................................................................. 29 4 OUTCOMES FROM MULTI-HAZARD REVIEW ....................................................................... 43 4.1 Conclusions............................................................................................................. 43 4.2 Gaps (Knowledge/Skills) ........................................................................................ 45 4.3 Recommendations ................................................................................................... 46 APPENDIX 1 PROJECT OUTCOMES ............................................................................................. 48 APPENDIX 2 DEFINITION OF MULTI-HAZARD & ASSOCIATED TERMINOLOGY .......... 49 APPENDIX 3 DATABASE OF EXISTING ACADEMIC LITERATURE AND PAST/CURRENT EVIDENCE FROM PRACTICE (INDUSTRY & POLICY)............................................................. 58 APPENDIX 4 DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ECONOMIC COSTS FRAMEWORK USED FOR CASE STUDIES ................................................................................................................ 59 APPENDIX 5 THREE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC CASE STUDIES .................................................... 60 APPENDIX 6 STAKEHOLDER DATABASE ................................................................................... 70 APPENDIX 7 ETHICS POLICY ........................................................................................................ 71 APPENDIX 8 QUESTIONNAIRE ...................................................................................................... 76 APPENDIX 9 DISCIPLINES WHICH COULD INFORM MULTI-HAZARD RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...........................................................................................................................
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