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Climate Risks and Opportunities for Glasgow City Region: Methods and Approach Cosgrove, P., Watt, J., Hastie, L., Sime, I., Shields, D., Cosgrove, C., … Bao, M

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Climate Risks and Opportunities for Glasgow City Region: Methods and Approach Cosgrove, P., Watt, J., Hastie, L., Sime, I., Shields, D., Cosgrove, C., … Bao, M TOWARDS A CLIMATE READY CLYDE: CLIMATE RISKS AND TECHNICAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR REPORT GLASGOW CITY REGION DECEMBER 2018 a Glasgow City Region Climate Change Risk and Opportunity Assessment Report Citation This report should be cited as: England, K., Morris, M., Wolstenholme, R. Allen., K. and Macpherson, D. (2018) Towards a Climate Ready Clyde: A climate change risk and opportunity assessment for Glasgow City Region Acknowledgements The Climate Ready Clyde Secretariat are grateful to a large number of organisations and individuals for their advice, input and support in the development of this assessment. Whilst it is not possible to name each contributor individually, the Secretariat wishes to express thanks to all who made this assessment possible. However, special thanks should go to Joseph Hagg at Adaptation Scotland and Gemma Holmes and Kathryn Brown of the Committee on Climate Change for their support in designing the methods which underpin this approach, as well as the funders of Climate Ready Clyde and the Scottish Government for their support to both the companion economic implications study and the broader aspirations of Climate Ready Clyde. Any errors that remain in this report are the responsibility of the lead author. Disclaimer This report summarises the work undertaken by Sniffer in their role as Secretariat to Climate Ready Clyde, in the context of broader scientific literature. Therefore, the views contained in this assessment are the collective view of Climate Ready Clyde partners. They do not necessarily represent the views of individual agencies, Glasgow City Region or Scottish Government. Sniffer take no responsibility for losses incurred as a result of information used in this report. UK Climate Projections 2018 and second National Flood Risk Assessment This report was produced prior to the launch of both the updated UK Climate Projections, and SEPA’s second National Flood Risk Assessment. Whilst there has not been the resources available to consider their implications as part of the Climate Risk and Opportunity Assessment they will be used by the Climate Ready Clyde Secretariat to inform the preparation of the Glasgow City Region Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. Cover image © Photographic Unit, University of Glasgow b Technical Report CONTENTS Chair’s foreword 2 About Climate Ready Clyde 3 Introduction and approach 4 Summary of findings 7 Theme 1 – Infrastructure 9 Theme 2 – Built Environment 25 Theme 3 – Society and Human Health 39 Theme 4 – Natural Environment and Natural Assets 55 Theme 5 – Economy, Business and Industry 86 Theme 6 – International risks and opportunities, and cross cutting and adaptive capacity issues 99 References 110 Appendix 1 – Climate risk and opportunity register for Glasgow City Region 124 1 Glasgow City Region Climate Change Risk and Opportunity Assessment CHAIR’S FOREWORD The Board of Climate Ready Clyde is delighted to present its Climate Change Risk and Opportunity Assessment for the Glasgow City Region. This comprehensive assessment places the city region This assessment, of course, also serves to reinforce as the first in the UK to systematically assess and the case for deep and rapid emissions cuts – since disclose its climate risks and opportunities, and to meeting the commitment of the Paris Agreement offer an estimate of the economic implications. is the best way to ensure that many of the impacts outlined here are not experienced, or that their effects While it’s a sobering picture, there are many reasons are at least less severe. for optimism. Much action is already underway, and the city region has a strong commitment from Glasgow City Region has always benefited from its stakeholders to ensure its economy and people innovation and resourcefulness, and in doing so has continue to flourish in the face of a changing climate. led the way on some of the world’s most challenging issues – from rapid industrialisation, through to post- Completing the assessment offers us a unique industrial decline and associated social and health opportunity. Adapting the region to climate inequalities. And because of this I have no doubt of change requires us to do things differently, and to our ability to ensure that the city region prospers in make decisions that take a long view and involve the face of global climate change. There are already complexity. We now have a starting point for a good number of positive examples where action is conversations about how we address our future underway, but we must scale up and accelerate this challenges. This will be the focus over the next year work. and a half as we move on to prepare the city region’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. There is a great opportunity to be seized. Adapting to a changing climate will help protect existing jobs, But it’s not just Glasgow City Region partners who enhance economic prosperity, deliver improved benefit from this assessment. Our city region joins wellbeing, and ensure that Glasgow City Region many other municipalities and authorities around remains a great place to live and work for generations the world setting out their climate challenges to come. and, collectively, this process is already beginning to effect systemic change. For example, the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Dislosures now recommends companies assess and manage physical climate risks to reassure shareholders and investors, James Curran and in turn this benefits every one of us. Chair, Climate Ready Clyde 2 Technical Report ABOUT CLIMATE READY CLYDE Climate Ready Clyde is a three-year initiative to develop an Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan for the Glasgow City Region. It is funded by thirteen partners, in recognition that a strategic, collaborative approach to adaptation is essential for the economic, social and environmental success of the city region. Products from this assessment • Adaptation Economy of Glasgow City Region – a report on the potential for Glasgow City Region In producing this Risk and Opportunity assessment and wider Scotland to develop and sell goods and Climate Ready Clyde has developed a suite of services in support of adaptation. resources, including: • Methods, supporting data and maps – • Summary tables of risks and opportunities – a description of the process for the risk setting out the range of risks and opportunities by assessment, and a range of downloadable data urgency score, hazard and type. from each of the thematic briefings for Glasgow City Region. • Thematic briefings – on Infrastructure, Built Environment, Society and Health, Economy, This information is available on the Climate Business and Industry Natural Environment and Ready Clyde’s Risk and Opportunity website: International risks and Cross Cutting and Adaptive www.climatereadyclyde.org.uk/riskassessment Capacity issues. • Economic Implications of Climate Change Study – an assessment of the economic implications of the climate risks and opportunities. © NORTH LANARKSHIRE COUNCIL 3 Glasgow City Region Climate Change Risk and Opportunity Assessment INTRODUCTION AND APPROACH The benefits of developing this local-level risk and The context opportunity assessment include: Glasgow City Region is home to one third of • Generating consensus for action on the key Scotland’s population and comprises £40bn of gross climate change risks and opportunities. value added (GVA) – a third of Scotland’s economic The assessment will ensure decision makers and activity. It comprises eight local authorities who work the public recognise the specific challenges arising collaboratively with a wide range of partners to allow from the interaction of local climate impacts and the city region to flourish and prosper. the socio-economic characteristics of the city region. The city region’s infrastructure and built environment, economy, communities and environment will all be • Identifying how climate change will be affected to a greater or lesser degree by climate experienced locally as the risks and opportunities change. Impacts include more extreme weather, play out differently compared to other parts of changes in temperature and precipitation, wildfires Scotland and the UK due to local factors. Glasgow and flooding – from surface water, rivers and the sea, City Region is considerably colder and wetter than coastal erosion, landslides, spread of diseases, water other parts of the UK, with particularly high levels scarcity. The separate methods document sets out of social inequality. The risks and opportunities the full range of hazards included in scope, based on may also be modified by demographics, the C40 Cities Climate Hazard Taxonomy (Climate topography, infrastructure, the built environment, Ready Clyde, 2019). land use patterns, and natural heritage. A local assessment helps account for these variations. To adapt effectively and efficiently to the impacts of climate change, Glasgow City Region needs This assessment is aimed at: a strategic approach that sets out which risks to address, and identifies how and when this needs to • Managers, senior policy officers and decision happen. makers to increase understanding of how climate change will be experienced within the city region, and to provide resources for specific risks and Purpose of the assessment sectors. This information will provide a foundation for considering how climate change will impact This assessment identifies and prioritises the risks and their organisations, and what action can be taken opportunities from climate change to Glasgow City internally and in partnership across
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