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Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses (PDF) Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses Caley Johnson, Erin Nobler, Leslie Eudy, and Matthew Jeffers National Renewable Energy Laboratory NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Technical Report Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy NREL/TP-5400-74832 Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC June 2020 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses Caley Johnson, Erin Nobler, Leslie Eudy, and Matthew Jeffers National Renewable Energy Laboratory Suggested Citation Johnson, Caley, Erin Nobler, Leslie Eudy, and Matthew Jeffers. 2020. Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-74832. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/74832.pdf NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Technical Report Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy NREL/TP-5400-74832 Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC June 2020 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden, CO 80401 Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov NOTICE This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Vehicle Technologies Office. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via www.OSTI.gov. Cover Photos by Dennis Schroeder: (clockwise, left to right) NREL 51934, NREL 45897, NREL 42160, NREL 45891, NREL 48097, NREL 46526. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office, Technology Integration Program for funding this project and providing connections with numerous transit agencies that led to key data and insight. We would like to thank the transit agencies that generously shared their electric load data, operational data, and technological insight. This project would not have been possible without data from the Transportation Cooperative Research Committee’s 130 report and the shared vision from Meredith Linscott and Erik Bigelow. Likewise, we would like to thank our colleague at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Josh Eichman, who’s field work with electric bus fleets proved invaluable. Other NREL colleagues, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt, Joyce McLaren, and Emma Elgqvist, helped us navigate the Utility Rate Database and better address the complex relationship between electric utility and bus fleet. Lisa Jerram of the American Public Transit Association and Andy Eiden of Portland General Electric shared perspectives that greatly benefited this study. Despite the large amount of help that we have received when writing this report, any potential errors are the fault of the authors. iii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. List of Acronyms AFDC Alternative Fuels Data Center AFLEET Alternative Fuel Life-Cycle Environmental and Economic Transportation tool APTA American Public Transit Association BEB battery electric bus BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics CARB California Air Resources Board CNG compressed natural gas DCA discounted cashflow analysis EIA Energy Information Agency EV electric vehicle FTA Federal Transit Administration HVIP Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Program kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour MTA Metropolitan Transit Authority NPV net present value NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory O&M operations and maintenance PTI Pennsylvania Transportation Institute ROI return on investment RPM revolutions per minute RRR required rate of return URDB Utility Rate Database TCRP Transit Cooperative Research Program TOU Time of use VICE Vehicle and Infrastructure Cash-Flow Evaluation model VICE-BEB Vehicle and Infrastructure Cash-Flow Evaluation for battery electric buses VMT vehicle miles traveled iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Executive Summary Transit buses are well positioned to be the next heavy-duty vehicle market segment to significantly electrify. However, most fleet managers will only purchase battery electric buses (BEBs) if they are cost-effective when compared to traditional diesel buses over their lifetime. In this report, this comparison is done through the Vehicle and Infrastructure Cash-Flow Evaluation for BEB (VICE-BEB) model. This model determines the net present value (NPV) and the payback period for investment in BEBs and charging infrastructure. Numerous economic analyses have been done for specific fleets, but this analysis strives to help all transit bus fleets determine if BEBs would be cost-effective. It does this by establishing a baseline fleet with typical or average values for the parameters of interest and then addressing variations to these parameters in a simplified way that allows specific fleets to place themselves on a spectrum based on key parameters. The baseline fleet was determined through an extensive literature search and fleet survey. The baseline scenario invested in four BEBs and four depot chargers, received a grant of $1,500,000 (or $375,000 per bus with charger), and saw an NPV of $785,000 over the 12-year bus life. When determining if BEB investment would be cost-effective (meaning lower total cost of ownership than diesel bus), fleet managers and grant administrators need to know which fleet parameters to prioritize. The most important parameters are the ones that are highly influential to NPV and highly volatile. The relative influence of parameters was determined by independently swinging 33 key VICE-BEB inputs ±50% and recording the corresponding swing in project NPV. The volatility of each parameter was determined by dividing the range of inputs found in a literature search by the baseline value. The most influential and volatile project parameters are represented in Table ES-1. Table ES-1. Most Influential and Volatile Project Parameters Influence Parameter Volatility Rating (NPV Swing) Purchase price of BEB $3,200,968 Medium Purchase price of foregone diesel bus $1,731,602 Low Grant amount $1,500,000 Medium Diesel vehicle maintenance $1,129,599 Medium Annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) $1,033,894 Medium Number of BEBs obtained (depot)a $771,923 High BEB vehicle maintenance costs $698,440 High Charger price (fast) a $495,636 High Number of BEBs obtained (fast) a $429,500 High Electricity demand charges (fast) a $49,282 High a Parameters with parentheses behind them apply specifically to fast- or depot-charge projects. Many of the parameters vary based upon temporal and geographical factors. Knowing the trends in variance can help a fleet determine beforehand if a BEB investment is likely to be cost- effective for them. There are also a number of choices a fleet can make in order to make these parameters more favorable. Choosing between a fast and depot charger is implicated in many of these parameters, and charger power, electricity demand charges, and facility electric load patterns need to be considered when making this decision. BEB range is an intermediary factor v This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. that is impacted by important parameters (e.g., battery size, efficiency, duty cycle, temperature) and impacts important parameters (e.g., number of chargers and BEBs). This report serves as a first screen to determine which fleets may be the most suitable for BEB investment. Next steps could include fleet-specific modeling with VICE-BEB; route profiling to help determine the real-world BEB efficiency, range, and equipment requirements; and discussions with the electric utility to determine if their rate structure and contract can be conducive to cost effective BEB projects. vi This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Baseline Scenario and Parameters ........................................................................................................... 4 General Costs ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Diesel Bus Costs ..................................................................................................................................... 7 BEB Costs .............................................................................................................................................
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