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June 18, 2014 June 18, 2014 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Hyundai Department Store (069960/Buy/TP: W161,000) KOSPI 1,990.04 -5.44 -0.27 Patience will be rewarded KOSPI 200 259.68 -0.88 -0.34 KOSDAQ 524.03 0.91 0.17 Hyundai Glovis (086280/Trading Buy/TP: W270,000) 3PL expansion needs to be more aggressive Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 207,205 4,514 KOSPI 200 63,771 3,680 KOSDAQ 229,234 1,320 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,188,827 KOSDAQ 126,706 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,502 1,482 20 Institutional 1,137 1,140 -3 Retail 1,841 1,860 -19 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 113 105 8 Institutional 85 97 -11 Retail 1,118 1,115 3 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,110 790 320 KOSDAQ 20 22 -2 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 463 361 62 KOSDAQ 488 444 65 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,409,000 -48,000 629 KODEX LEVERAGE 11,780 0 231 Samsung Corp. 72,900 -5,900 202 Hynix 46,100 -350 187 Samsung SDI 168,000 -500 157 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Diostech 15,350 150 52 Com2us 45,300 2,600 41 Daum Communications 92,700 600 37 Medy-tox 118,900 -9,300 29 Keayeast 3,940 -200 22 Note: As of June 18, 2014 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Hyundai Department Store (069960 KS) Patience will be rewarded Retail Another weak quarter expected Retailers’ earnings remain lackluster overall. We estimate Hyundai Department Store’s Company Update (HDS) same-store sales (SSS) grew just 2% in April-May due to depressed consumer June 18, 2014 sentiment in the wake of the ferry tragedy. We expect the company to post another weak quarter, with gross merchandise sales ( GMS) of W1.11tr (+1.6% YoY) and operating profit of W99.2bn (-8.2% YoY), in 2Q. Fixed cost burden should also weigh on (Maintain) Buy earnings , as sales at existing stores have not been strong enough to offset the depreciation costs of the Coex branch (which was expanded in 2013). Target Price (12M, W) 161,000 The bright side is that consumer spending has recently been showing some signs of improvement, and the heavy fixed cost burden from the Coex branch is likely to ease Share Price (6/17/14, W) 131,500 from 3Q. However, the near-term earnings outlook still remains muted, as 3Q is typically a weak season. Expected Return 22% Seeking growth through new store openings OP (14F, Wbn) 382 In addition to the Gasan High Hill outlet, which opened in May (operated under a Consensus OP (14F, Wbn) 402 management contract), HDS is set to open three new outlets (Gimpo, Songdo, and Garden Five). The retailer’s more aggressive store expansion efforts should assuage EPS Growth (14F, %) -2.8 investor concerns over its relatively late entry into the discount outlet market. For t he Market EPS Growth (14F, %) 22.9 Gasan High Hill store, the retailer has blended the high-end image of its department P/E (14F, x) 10.6 stores with the traditional outlet format, setting the store apart from other adjacent Market P/E (14F, x) 11.1 outlets. While it is too soon to tell if this strategy will work, we believe the Gasan outlet KOSPI 2,001.55 will serve as a good benchmark for the opening of the company’s future outlets. Market Cap (Wbn) 3,077 Pangyo Alphadom City, which is set to open in 2H15, is widely expected to become a Shares Outstanding (mn) 23 local landmark. The company expects annual revenue of W700bn from the shopping Free Float (%) 62.3 arcade, but our estimates are more bullish at around W1tr within two to three years of Foreign Ownership (%) 36.3 opening. HDS’s outlet and shopping arcade expansion efforts should make it s growth Beta (12M) 0.95 52-Week Low 124,500 story the most compelling in the brick-and-mortar retail segment in 2015. 52-Week High 174,000 Maintain Buy and TP of W161,000 (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M We keep our Buy rating on HDS with a target price of W161,000. The stock’s current Absolute -1.1 -17.8 -14.3 valuation looks attractive (2014F and 2015F P/Es of 10.6x and 9.6x), given the expected Relative -0.5 -19.3 -19.4 momentum from new store openings (which should begin in December 2014 or January 120 Hyundai Department Store 2015). However, the clouded outlook for private consumption, as well as continued KOSPI 110 earnings weakness, point to limited upside momentum in the near term. We expect the stock to remain range-bound on poor earnings for the time being. However, we believe 100 HDS is more appealing than other major retailers, as it has the highest g rowth potential 90 for 2015. We continue to recommend buying on weakness from a medium- to long-term 80 view. 70 6.13 10.13 2.14 6.14 Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14F 12/15F 12/16F Revenue (Wbn) 1,439 1,520 1,534 1,570 1,765 1,958 [Retail] OP (Wbn) 437 426 393 382 422 506 Young Ryu OP margin (%) 30.4 28.0 25.6 24.3 23.9 25.8 +822-768-4138 NP (Wbn) 346 322 299 291 319 374 [email protected] EPS (W) 15,027 13,755 12,771 12,417 13,635 15,992 ROE (%) 15.4 12.4 10.4 9.2 9.3 9.9 P/E (x) 10.8 11.6 12.6 10.6 9.6 8.2 P/B (x) 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Hyundai Glovis (086280 KS) 3PL expansion needs to be more aggressive Logistics 2Q14 preview: Likely to fall short of consensus We forecast Hyundai Glovis to post 2Q revenue of W3.44tr (+4.8% YoY). We project 2Q Earnings Preview operating profit to come in at W175.1bn (-2.2% YoY), 0.8% shy of our previous estimate June 18, 2014 (W176.6bn), and 4.9% below the market consensus (W183.7bn, +2.5% YoY ). At current F/X levels, it appears unlikely operating profit will come in above consensus. We trimmed our 2014F-15F operating profit by 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively. (Maintain) Trading Buy International logistics revenue should grow 7.7% YoY in 2Q, supported by growth in finished car transportation, iron ore transportation, and overseas subsidiaries . Domestic Target Price (12M, W) 270,000 logistics, on the other hand, is likely to suffer negative growth (-7.3% YoY) due to inter- affiliate deal regulations. CKD revenue is also likely to contract (-4.5 % YoY) on won Share Price (06/17/14, W) 266,000 appreciation and weak output (-1.9% YoY excl. China). As such, we see 2Q OP margin declining to 5.1% (from 5.5% in 2Q13). Expected Return 2% Lack of near-term momentum: Solution lies in aggressive 3PL expansion OP (14F, Wbn) 688 Hyundai Glovis has been struggling with the double whammy of Hyundai Motor Group’s Consensus OP (14F, Wbn) 690 (HMG) slowing output and the strengthening won. The solution to this problem lies in the expansion of the 3PL business (third-party logistics: logistics services for non- EPS Growth (14F, %) 12.7 affiliated parties). The share of non-affiliates has increased to 40% of the company’s Market EPS Growth (14F, %) 22.9 logistics revenue and to 29% of overall revenue (up from 22% in 1Q13). P/E (14F, x) 18.4 Market P/E (14F, x) 11.1 But if this share is to rise further, Glovis needs to speed up the expansion of its bulk KOSPI 2,001.55 shipping business. The company currently has around 25 bulk carriers (three owned, and 20-25 chartered), but operation has been minimal. The company acquired one VLCC in Market Cap (Wbn) 9,975 April and another in June to beef up its crude carrier business.
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