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Teliasonera (TLSN.ST) 22 March 2016 Europe/Sweden Equity Research Wireline TeliaSonera (TLSN.ST) Rating NEUTRAL Price (17 Mar 16, Skr) 41.92 COMPANY UPDATE Target price (Skr) 39.00 Market Cap (Skr m) 181,517.2 Enterprise value (Skr m) 239,294.2 What next? *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. ■ We reiterate our Neutral rating and SEK39 PT. We raise our 2016-18E ¹Target price is for 12 months. EBITDA forecasts by 2% but are 2-3% below consensus 2017-18E EBITDA Research Analysts due to Sweden. Henrik Herbst 44 20 7888 0286 ■ Telia's decision to exit Eurasia marks a big shift in strategy after 15 years of [email protected] expansion into EM. After a sale of Eurasia Telia is likely to focus its strategy Jakob Bluestone on becoming the champion of the Nordic region. Telia has a strong position 44 20 7883 0834 [email protected] (#1 or #2) in Sweden and Finland in fixed and mobile, but is only the #3 Justin Funnell mobile player in Denmark, and it lacks access to fixed NGN infrastructure in 44 20 7888 0268 Denmark and Norway something the company highlighted as key. Buying [email protected] TDC would be the easiest way for Telia to address these issues. A sale of Telia DK to 3DK may also be easier from an anti-trust perspective. Buying TDC would be 8-15% FCF per share accretive to Telia over 2018-2020E, on our estimates, improving dividend cover. ■ We raise Swedish EBITDA forecasts 4% (for higher fibre installation revenues) for 2016-18E but are still 1-4% below consensus estimates. Voice line loss remains the main issue and with c.800k of Telia's 1.9m PSTN lines voice-only, we expect line loss to remain high. Telia's fibre installation revenues are set grow in 2016E but then flatten out in 2017E and decline from 2018E, as Telia's fibre roll-out slows. Meanwhile the outlook for mobile remains challenging with pressure on B2B and 4G uptake maturing. ■ Valuation: Telia trades on a 5.4x 2016E proportionate EV/EBITDA before a sale of its Eurasia assets and 6.4x post a sale and settlement of Uzbekistan. 6.4x 2016E EV/EBITDA is in line with the sector (6.4x). Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Revenue (Skr m) 86,569.4 85,978.7 85,455.4 85,457.1 EBITDA (Skr m) 23,991.5 24,543.5 25,020.6 25,548.5 Adjusted net income (Skr m) 7,878.28 10,443.17 11,212.11 12,103.30 CS EPS (adj.) (Skr) 2.71 3.98 4.05 4.12 Prev. EPS (Skr) 5.41 3.15 3.16 3.20 ROIC (%) 4.8 5.6 5.8 6.0 P/E (adj.) (x) 15.5 10.5 10.4 10.2 P/E rel. (%) 107.0 73.3 78.0 82.3 The price relative chart measures performance against the EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 9.7 9.4 9.0 OMX AFFARSVARLDENS GENERAL INDEX which closed Dividend (12/16E, Skr) 2.00 Net debt (12/16E, Skr m) 57,777.1 at 469.9 on 17/03/16 Dividend yield (12/16E,%) 4.8 Net debt/equity (12/16E,%) 42.8 On 17/03/16 the spot exchange rate was Skr9.25/Eu 1.- BV/share (12/16E, Skr) 30.2 IC (12/16E, Skr m) 192,699.0 Eu.88/US$1 Current WACC (%) 6.2 EV/IC (12/16E, (x) 1.4 Performance 1M 3M 12M Free float (%) 59.5 Number of shares (m) 4,330.1 Absolute (%) 4.6 0.3 -22.6 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Relative (%) 2.6 2.7 -10.8 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 22 March 2016 TeliaSonera (TLSN.ST) Price (17 Mar 2016): Skr41.92; Rating: NEUTRAL; Target Price: Skr39 Income statement (Skr m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Per share 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Revenue 86,569 85,979 85,455 85,457 No. of shares (wtd avg.) 4,330 4,330 4,330 4,330 EBITDA 23,992 24,543 25,021 25,548 (mn)CS EPS (adj.) (Skr) 2.71 3.98 4.05 4.12 Depr. & amort. (12,780) (11,177) (11,109) (11,109) Prev. EPS (Skr) 5.41 3.15 3.16 3.20 EBIT 11,212 13,366 13,911 14,439 Dividend (Skr) 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Net interest exp. (2,917) (2,337) (2,210) (2,001) Dividend yield (%) 7.16 4.77 4.77 4.77 Associates 3,394 3,716 3,992 4,356 Dividend payout (%) 110.82 50.20 49.40 48.53 Other adj. 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow per share 3.82 2.52 3.17 3.24 PBT 11,689 14,745 15,694 16,794 Key(Skr) ratios and valuation 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Income taxes (2,157) (2,801) (2,982) (3,191) Growth (%) Profit after tax 9,532 11,943 12,712 13,603 Sales growth (%) 6.7 (0.7) (0.6) 0.0 Minorities (1,654) (1,500) (1,500) (1,500) EBIT growth (%) (14.9) 19.2 4.1 3.8 Preferred dividends - - - - Net income growth (%) (29.2) 32.6 7.4 7.9 Associates & other 0 0 0 0 EPS growth (%) (24.8) 47.2 1.6 1.8 Net profit 7,878 10,443 11,212 12,103 Margins (%) Other NPAT adjustments 0 0 0 0 EBITDA margin (%) 27.7 28.5 29.3 29.9 Reported net income 7,878 10,443 11,212 12,103 EBIT margin (%) 13.0 15.5 16.3 16.9 Cash flow (Skr m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Pretax profit margin (%) 13.5 17.1 18.4 19.7 EBIT 11,212 13,366 13,911 14,439 Net income margin (%) 9.1 12.1 13.1 14.2 Net interest (1,653) (2,246) (2,251) (2,214) Valuation 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Cash taxes paid (3,166) (3,765) (3,863) (4,011) EV/Sales (x) 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 Change in working capital (1,721) 0 0 0 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 9.7 9.4 9.0 Other cash and non-cash items 30,576 20,744 20,470 20,171 EV/EBIT (x) 23.9 17.9 16.8 15.8 Cash flow from operations 35,249 28,100 28,268 28,386 P/E (x) 15.5 10.5 10.4 10.2 CAPEX (18,699) (17,170) (14,542) (14,345) Price to book (x) 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 Free cash flow adj. - - - - Asset turnover 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Free cashflow to the firm 16,550 10,930 13,725 14,040 ROE analysis (%) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Acquisitions - - - - Divestments - - - - Return on equity stated 7.5 9.1 8.4 8.6 ROIC (%) 4.8 5.6 5.8 6.0 Other investment/(outflows) (10,285) 0 0 0 (%) Cash flow from investments (28,985) (17,170) (14,542) (14,345) Interest burden (x) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 Net share issue/(repurchase) 0 0 0 0 Tax rate (%) 18.5 19.0 19.0 19.0 Financial leverage 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 Dividends paid (12,990) (12,990) (8,660) (8,660) Issuance (retirement) of debt - - - - Credit ratios (%) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Others (6,856) 30,619 (0) 0 Net debt/equity (%) 84.5 42.8 37.4 32.1 Cashflow from financing (19,846) 17,629 (8,660) (8,660) Net debt to EBITDA (x) 3.6 2.4 2.1 1.9 Effect of exchange rates - - - - Interest coverage ratio (x) 3.8 5.7 6.3 7.2 Changes in net cash/debt (13,582) 28,559 5,065 5,380 Share price performance Net debt at start 72,754 86,336 57,777 52,712 Change in net debt 13,582 (28,559) (5,065) (5,380) Net debt at end 86,336 57,777 52,712 47,332 Balance sheet (Skr m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Assets Cash & equivalents 14,647 14,647 14,647 14,647 Accounts receivable 27,837 27,590 27,487 27,487 Inventory 1,871 1,844 1,833 1,833 Other current assets 35,812 35,812 35,812 35,812 Total current assets 80,167 79,893 79,779 79,779 Total fixed assets 55,093 58,356 59,415 60,464 Intangible assets and goodwill 67,933 67,933 67,933 67,933 Investment securities 29,401 29,401 29,401 29,401 Other assets 21,422 21,422 21,292 21,292 Total assets 254,016 257,005 257,819 258,869 The price relative chart measures performance against the OMX Liabilities AFFARSVARLDENS GENERAL INDEX which closed at 469.9 on 17/03/16 Accounts payables 21,706 20,534 20,262 20,185 On 17/03/16 the spot exchange rate was Skr9.25/Eu 1.- Eu.88/US$1 Short term debt 9,337 9,337 9,337 9,337 Other short term liabilities 11,597 11,597 11,597 11,597 Total current liabilities 42,640 41,468 41,196 41,119 Long term debt 91,646 63,087 58,022 52,642 Other liabilities 17,528 17,528 17,528 17,528 Total liabilities 151,814 122,083 116,746 111,289 Shareholders' equity 97,884 130,604 136,755 143,262 Minority interests 4,318 4,318 4,318 4,318 Total equity and liabilities 254,016 257,005 257,819 258,869 Net debt 86,336 57,777 52,712 47,332 Source: FTI, Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Securities (EUROPE) LTD.
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