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4.7. Potential Social and Economic Impact

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4.7. Potential Social and Economic Impact The National Institute of Research and Development for Environmental Protection - ICIM Bucharest 4.7. Potential Social and Economic Impact 4.7.1. Demography The data on population distribution presented in this study were prepared by Project SA Constanta (Ref 4.7-1) at the level of the year 2000 and estimated for the future period until the year 2030 (see Tables 4.7.1-1 ÷ 4.7.1-4 and Figure 4.7-1). Analyzing the distribution of the population with permanent residence in the 30 km radius area, it is found that the sectors with most inhabitants are those of Medgidia, Cernavoda and Fetesti. The ESE sector had 57570 inhabitants at the level of the year 2000 and it will have about 58945 inhabitants at the level of the year 2030. This sector includes Medgidia Town, at 18 km ESE from the site, a town having 46457 inhabitants at the level of the year 2000 and an estimated population of 47000 inhabitants in 2030 (Ref 4.7-1). This sector is not located on the direction of dominant winds. Another sector with many inhabitants is located on WNW direction and its population concentration reaches about 41598 inhabitants at the level of the year 2000 and it is to be about 41370 inhabitants in the year 2030. This sector includes Fetesti Town, located at 18 km distance from the Cernavoda NPP site, with a population of 36684 inhabitants, that is to reach 36000 inhabitants at the level of the year 2030. The town is not on the dominant winds direction. Cernavoda Town, the greatest concentration of population in the vicinity of the Cernavoda NPP site, is located at about 2 km distance on WNW, NW, and NNW sectors. The town had 20384 inhabitants at the level of the year 2000 and is to reach about 23000 inhabitants in 2030. Around Cernavoda NPP, in the 1 km radius area (exclusion zone), there is no settlement or population with permanent residence. Transient Population Tables 4.7.1-5 and 4.7.1-6 show an analysis of the distribution of the transitory population that stays in the area a short period of time (Ref. 4.7-1). Environmental Impact Assessment Report for Cernavoda NPP Units 3 and 4 Contract 203/2006 Chapter 4.7 Page 1 The National Institute of Research and Development for Environmental Protection - ICIM Bucharest There is seasonal work in wine yards and orchards, in spring (February, March), and then in autumn for harvesting, when the number of employees and the work time period is longer (August, September, October). A small number of people is employed for seasonal work in most of the farms (cereals, animal breeding) for the period February-October, but the number of this people is small (2-6 employees) and they have not been recorded. The case of Cernavoda Town is an exception due to the relatively high number of commute people reaching about 800 persons. Tourism do not generate long-time stay in the analyzed area (30 km area). Population Density Within the area in the vicinity of Cernavoda NPP, the distribution of the urban and rural settlements on unit area is not uniform since it has been influenced by the natural conditions and economic factors. So, the settlements within the 30 km radius, that concentrate a lot of population, i.e Cernavoda, Medgidia and Fetesti, are located along the Bucharest – Constanta main railway. The rural settlements with most inhabitants (between 2000 – 9000 inhabitants) are located along the Danube River and the Borcea Branch. The average density of the population in the 30 km radius area is 63.5 inhabitants/km 2. The structure of the Cernavoda, Fetesti, Medgidia population, according to age and sectors, is presented in Table 4.7.1-7. Environmental Impact Assessment Report for Cernavoda NPP Units 3 and 4 Contract 203/2006 Chapter 4.7 Page 2 The National Institute of Research and Development for Environmental Protection - ICIM Bucharest Table 4.7.1-1. Distribution of the population - year 2000 Radius-(km) N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW TOTAL 0-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 4383 0 8 4427 2-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 202 205 0 0 0 30 0 124 8483 1026 10070 3-4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 2879 3298 6207 4-5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 354 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 113 477 5-6 816 0 0 0 0 0 1138 345 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2299 6-7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1227 0 0 0 0 0 1227 7-8 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 8-9 489 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 689 9-10 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 509 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 529 10-15 0 731 630 0 1771 3726 263 0 420 0 2689 0 0 0 0 0 10239 15-20 94 0 741 0 3075 44968 0 1846 0 26 0 0 0 12059 1963 0 64772 20-25 1865 378 206 1608 0 3969 0 680 968 119 1299 1595 11072 25002 3990 0 52751 25-30 0 2046 332 3272 0 4907 2773 1598 345 2225 1606 0 1720 0 0 6018 26842 TOTAL 0-30 3264 3155 1909 4880 4966 57570 4576 5064 2242 2380 6821 1625 12792 41598 17315 10463 180620 Environmental Impact Assessment Report for Cernavoda NPP Units 3 and 4 Contract 203/2006 Chapter 4.7 Page 3 The National Institute of Research and Development for Environmental Protection - ICIM Bucharest Table 4.7.1-2. Distribution of the population - year 2010 Radius-(km) N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW TOTAL 0-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 4385 0 8 4430 2-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 208 210 0 0 0 30 0 125 8492 1025 10090 3-4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 2880 3300 6210 4-5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 365 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 115 490 5-6 800 0 0 0 0 0 1170 350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2320 4640 6-7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1215 0 0 0 0 0 1215 7-8 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 8-9 480 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 680 9-10 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 540 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 540 10-15 0 720 650 0 1790 3840 260 0 420 0 2685 0 0 0 0 0 10365 15-20 50 0 750 0 3160 44525 0 1875 0 25 0 0 0 11770 1910 0 64065 20-25 1850 360 185 1630 0 4090 0 685 965 115 1290 1590 10920 24475 3925 0 52080 25-30 0 2030 325 3370 0 5120 2810 1630 345 2220 1590 0 1680 0 0 5900 27020 TOTAL 0-30 km 3180 3110 1910 5000 5070 57575 4648 5152 2270 2370 6780 1620 12600 40785 17207 12668 181925 Environmental Impact Assessment Report for Cernavoda NPP Units 3 and 4 Contract 203/2006 Chapter 4.7 Page 4 The National Institute of Research and Development for Environmental Protection - ICIM Bucharest Table 4.7.1-3. Distribution of population - year 2020 Radius -(km) N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW TOTAL 0-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 4685 0 8 4730 2-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 208 210 0 0 0 30 0 135 9082 1095 10760 3-4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 3080 3525 6635 4-5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 365 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 120 495 5-6 800 0 0 0 0 0 1170 350 0 0 1185 0 0 0 0 0 2320 6-7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1185 7-8 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 8-9 480 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 680 9-10 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 520 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 540 10 -15 0 720 630 0 1790 3840 265 0 420 0 2615 0 0 0 0 0 10280 15 -20 45 0 720 0 3235 45495 0 1875 0 25 0 0 0 11770 1860 0 65025 20 -25 1805 350 180 1565 0 4195 0 685 885 110 1245 1540 10835 24490 3855 0 51730 25 -30 0 1970 310 3235 0 5330 2820 1610 320 2110 1475 0 1625 0 0 5900 26705 TOTAL 0-30 km 3130 3040 1840 1545 5145 53530 1843 5132 2145 2255 5335 1570 12450 41110 17877 10648 181185 Environmental Impact Assessment Report for Cernavoda NPP Units 3 and 4 Contract 203/2006 Chapter 4.7 Page 5 The National Institute of Research and Development for Environmental Protection - ICIM Bucharest Table 4.7.1-4.
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