water Article Analysis of the Arbovirosis Potential Occurrence in Dobrogea, Romania Carmen Maftei 1,* , Alina Bărbulescu 1,* , Sorin Rugina 2, Cristian Dorin Nastac 1 and Irina Magdalena Dumitru 2 1 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Transilvania University of Bras, ov, 5, Turnului Str., 500152 Bras, ov, Romania; [email protected] 2 Faculty of Medicine, Ovidius University of Constanta, 124, Mamaia Av., 900527 Constanta, Romania; [email protected] (S.R.); [email protected] (I.M.D.) * Correspondence: [email protected] (C.M.); [email protected] (A.B.) Abstract: Climate change creates new challenges for preventing and protecting human health against different diseases that could appear and propagate. The Aedes albopictus mosquito species is an important vector for different diseases like dengue fever or zika. Although this species is not “indigenous” in Europe, its presence is noticed in many countries on the continent. The Ae. albopictus establishment is conditioned by the species’ characteristics and environmental factors. To assess the possible spread of Ae. albopictus in the Dobrogea region (situated in the Southeast of Romania), we conducted the following analysis: (1) Investigation of the current distribution and climatic factors favoring Ae. albopictus’ establishment in Europe; (2) Analysis of climate dynamics in Dobrogea in terms of the parameters identified at stage (1); (3) Testing the hypothesis that the climate from Dobrogea favors Ae. albopictus’ establishment in the region; (4) Building a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based model of the potential geographic distribution of Ae. albopictus in Dobrogea. Results show that the climate of Dobrogea favors the apparition of the investigated species and its proliferation. Citation: Maftei, C.; B˘arbulescu,A.; Rugina, S.; Nastac, C.D.; Dumitru, Keywords: hydro-climate factors; statistical analysis; GIS analysis; arbovirosis I.M. Analysis of the Arbovirosis Potential Occurrence in Dobrogea, Romania. Water 2021, 13, 374. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030374 1. Introduction During the last years, weather and climate changes have a notable impact on human Academic Editor: Guy Howard health [1–4]. According to the CDC data recently published, climate change has led to Received: 5 December 2020 an augmentation of the incidence of emerging and re-emerging diseases, out of which Accepted: 27 January 2021 Published: 31 January 2021 vector-borne, food- and water-borne disease are the most important [5]. According to the WHO [6], vector-borne diseases (whose most common vectors Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral are mosquitos) account for more than 17% of all infectious illnesses, causing more than with regard to jurisdictional claims in 700,000 deaths annually. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one published maps and institutional affil- arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one arboviral disease, in many iations. cases, local outbreaks [7–9]. For instance, dengue fever (caused by mosquito bites, like Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1895)) is common in many countries from tropical and subtropical areas. The Invasive Species Specialist Group considers that Ae. albopictus is one of the worst 100 invasive species due to its adaptability [10,11]. Thus it comes as no surprise that autochthonous dengue cases were Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. documented in southern France in 2010, 2013, 2014, and 2015 [12–14]. In Spain, the first This article is an open access article local outbreak of Dengue was registered in 2018. The second one was reported in September distributed under the terms and 2019, when the local health authorities announced a laboratory-confirmed autochthonous conditions of the Creative Commons dengue case in Barcelona. The presence of Ae. albopictus in the same country has been Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// reported since 2004 [15]. Autochthonous dengue cases have been reported in Europe creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ (Croatia, France, Madeira Islands) and the United States (Hawaii, Florida, and Texas) [12,13], 4.0/). as well. The number of imported cases has also increased in Germany, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Water 2021, 13, 374. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030374 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/water WaterWater2021 2021,,13 13,, 374x FOR PEER REVIEW 22 ofof 1516 46 andcreased the Unitedin Germany, Kingdom, Belgium, due toItaly, the tourismSpain, and intensification the United Kingdom, in endemic due countries to the tourism [14–18]. 47 Importedintensification dengue in endemic fever cases countries have been [14–18]. notified Imported in Romania dengue since fever 2008 cases [16], have their been number no- 48 significantlytified in Romania increasing since in2008 2019 [16], (Figure their 1number). significantly increasing in 2019 (Figure 1). 49 50 Figure 1. The number of imported cases of denguedengue fever reported inin Romania.Romania. 51 Following thethe outbreaksoutbreaks of of dengue dengue and and chikungunya chikungunya virus virus in Europe, in Europe, European European Cen- 52 treCentre for Disease for Disease Prevention Prevention and Control and Control (ECDC) (ECDC) attempted attempted to achieve to achieve a current a distributioncurrent dis- 53 maptribution and providemap and a historicalprovide a spread historical of these spread mosquito of these species mosquito in Europe. species According in Europe. to Ac- the 54 reportcording published to the report in 2009 published [19], the in North 2009 Mediterranean[19], the North coast Mediterranean was already coast infested. was already At that 55 time,infested. there At was that no time, information there was concerning no information the Ae. concerning albopictus thespreading Ae. albopictus in Romania. spreading in 56 Romania.Scientists proposed different approaches to investigate the Ae. albopictus spatial 57 distributionScientists in proposed Europe. different Fisher et approaches al. [20] published to investigate a review the containingAe. albopictus the spatial principal dis- 58 modelstribution used in Europe. to predict Fisher this et species’al. [20] published future distribution a review containing and classified the principal them into models two 59 categoriesused to predict—mechanist this species’and correlative. future distribution Since none and of themclassi isfied better them than into the two other catego- one, ECDC utilized the Random Forest model (correlative approach) and Multi-Criteria Deci- 60 ries—mechanist and correlative. Since none of them is better than the other one, ECDC sion Analyses (MDCA—mechanist approach) in its technical report [16]. It was shown that 61 utilized the Random Forest model (correlative approach) and Multi-Criteria Decision the Random Forest is suitable to describe mosquitos’ spread in the Mediterranean area 62 Analyses (MDCA—mechanist approach) in its technical report [16]. It was shown that the or similar zones. According to both the maximum impact short- and long-term scenarios, 63 Random Forest is suitable to describe mosquitos’ spread in the Mediterranean area or entire Europe is suitable for Ae. albopictus establishment. The MDCA result (based on 64 similar zones. According to both the maximum impact short- and long-term scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—IPPC’s long-term climate change scenario 65 entire Europe is suitable for Ae. albopictus establishment. The MDCA result (based on for 2030 with minimal impact) shows that Romania becomes unsuitable for Ae. albopictus 66 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—IPPC’s long-term climate change scenario spreading [19]. 67 for 2030 with minimal impact) shows that Romania becomes unsuitable for Ae. albopictus Recently, Kraemer et al. [21,22] and Kamal et al. [23] mapped the spreading zones of 68 spreading [19]. the Ae. albopictus vectors responsible for transmitting the major human arboviral diseases. 69 Recently, Kraemer et al. [21,22] and Kamal et al. [23] mapped the spreading zones of According to [23], the Southern part of Romania is 50% suitable for the existence of this 70 the Ae. albopictus vectors responsible for transmitting the major human arboviral diseases. species, but the situation from Dobrogea (southeastern part of Romania) has yet to be re- 71 According to [23], the Southern part of Romania is 50% suitable for the existence of this ported. The reconstructed global distribution of Ae. albopictus [22] provides 50% suitability 72 species, but the situation from Dobrogea (southeastern part of Romania) has yet to be for the establishment of this mosquito species in Romania. 73 reported.Prioteasa The reconstructed et al. [24] reported global for distribution the first time of theAe. existencealbopictus of [22]Ae. provides albopictus 50%in Roma- suita- 74 nia,bility in for Bucharest, the establishment in 2012. Since of this then, mosquito its presence species has in beenRomania. noticed every year. Recently, 75 Fălcu¸tPrioteasaă et al. [25 et] al.investigated [24] reported the existencefor the first of timeAe. albopictusthe existencein 53 of localities Ae. albopictus from Roma-in Ro- 76 niamania, for thein Bucharest, period 2017–2018. in 2012. TheirSince resultsthen, its confirm presence the has presence been noticed of this invasiveevery year. Aedes Re- 77 mosquitocently, Fălcu species,ţă et al. especially [25] investigated in the Bucharest the existence metropolitan of Ae. albopictus zone. ECDC in 53 2020localities map from [26] 78 showsRomania the for current the period distribution 2017–2018.