Regaining the High Ground at Sea Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition Study outline

• Key operational challenges for naval forces

• Naval strategy and posture

• New carrier air wing operational concepts

• Proposed aircraft and air wing composition

• Recommendations and implementation Long-range sensors & weapons provide escalation dominance

NOTE: Range arcs are illustrative Northern Military District of possible threats rather than an actual force laydown.

SS-N-27A (500 km)

Central Military District

H-6K (1800 km) Western Military District OTH-R Receivers CJ-10 (2,200 km)

Eastern Military District DF-11A/ CSS-7 Mod 1 OTH-R (350 km) Receiver Southern Military District DDG (3 days, 1200 km) OTH-R Receivers SS-N-22 (240 km) S-300PMU (90 km) S-300PMU1 (150 km) Oahu S-300PMU2/ HQ-9 (200 km) 7000 km S-400 (400 km) CONUS 7500+ km

SSK (18 days, 1730 km)

SS-N-27A (350km)

500 km Adversary able to mount attacks all along escalation ladder; U.S. and allies SSNneed (75 days, 3250 km) YJ-82 (33km) to be survivable and effective at various scales to provide options 3 Threat inside 1000 nm may prevent effective CVW or air base operations

200 nm 400 nm 600 nm 800 nm 1,000 nm 1,200 nm 1,400 nm 1,600 nm 1,800 nm 2,000 nm 2,200 nm

1 Day of PLAAF Air Raids Rocket Forces Conventional Missiles • 2 x JH-7A Fighter-Bomber Brigades (of 4 in PLAAF, Range Payload ASM 2,000 60/120 JH-7As as given in IISS) System Missiles Launchers (nm) (lbs) Variant? Assumptions: • Ranges measured from China coastline DF-11A 270 1,100 - ~890 108 • Assumes 4 hr turnaround time, 70% Ao, multiple crews DF-15B 430 1,100 Yes ~425 81 • Stairsteps represent switch to drop tanks • Constant rate of fuel burn assumed DF-16 540 ? - ~30 12 • No aerial refueling DF-21A 1,350 1,320 - 80

1,500 DF-21C 945 1,320 - ~300 36 DF-21D 1,080 1,320 Yes 18 DF-26 2,160 ? Yes ~30 16 DH-10 1,190 1,100 - ~375 54 Source: IHS Jane’s (range, payload, CEP, variants), IISS (launchers), missile inventories estimated using DoD and Jane's information. DF-26 and DF-16 payloads assumed to be equal to DF-21 and DF-15, respectively, for illustrative purposes. 1,000 Beyond 1000-1200 nm, maximum PLA salvo lowers to DF-11A SRBM Total Payload Deliverable (tons) Deliverable Payload Total ~600 1000 lb weapons

500 DF-15B SRBM DF-16 MRBM DF-21C MRBM DF-21D ASBM

DH-10 GLCM

DF-21A MRBM DF-26 IRBM Hanoi Taipei Manila Tokyo Tokyo Guam (via north) (via east) Okinawa 4 New air defenses could enable CSGs to counter aggression in contested areas

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200 Number of engagements 2 inminutes engagements ofNumber 100

0 Today 100 nm Today 10-30 nm Proposed 100 nm Proposed 10-30 nm

SM-2/6 ESSM EW HPRF Laser Mk45 gun w/HVP 4 aircraft CAP

Could enable CSG to withstand a single PLA salvo at 1000 nm; goal is to cause PLA to wait for a better opportunity, creating a window for CVW operations 5 CVW ops focus on regional powers and periphery of great power conflict

Hawaii Wake Island

Guam

Marshall Islands

Diego Garcia CVW needs to be able to: • Clear adversary forces around edge of conflict area (islands, ships) • Conduct small-scale attacks on or near CVW can support all operations adversary territory against regional powers, and may be needed to deter opportunistic aggression

1000 nm CSGs best suited for small-scale ops at long-range; large-scale ops at edge of great power confrontations; & full range of ops against regional powers 6 Strategy and CVW Posture CSBA architecture aligns with NDS posture of “contact” & “blunt” forces

Arctic CVN CVL Destroyer DDG-1000 Norwegian Sea / Frigate North Atlantic SSN Small Deck Amphib Patrol Ship North Sea / Baltic Sea East China Sea CONUS Extra Mediterranean / Rotation Base Black Sea Persian Gulf Western Pacific

South China Arabian Sea Sea

West Latin Africa America

Maneuver Force

8 Surface/sub forces for rapid, high-volume response; CVW sustains operations

Force Composition Weapons delivered at 800 nm

70.0 1400.00

60.0 1200.00

50.0 1000.00

40.0 800.00

30.0 600.00

20.0 400.00

10.0 200.00

0.0 0.00 Western Pacific Deterrence Maneuver Force Deterrence Forces (one salvo) Maneuver Force (First Salvo) Maneuver Force (subsequent Forces salvos; up to 3 per day)

CVN CVL DDG-1000 DDG-51 and CG FFG Patrol ship XLDUSV SSN XLDUUV Large Deck Amphib Small Deck Amphib CVW can deliver relatively large salvos multiple times a day, whereas Deterrence Forces can deliver a large salvo once before withdrawing to reload 9 Evolution of the CVW Battle of Midway– USS Yorktown (CV-5) in June 1942

79 Aircraft 36 x SBD Dauntless (2 sq)

16 x TBD Devastator (1 sq)

27 x F4F Wildcat (1 sq)

= Added to USS Yorktown after the Battle of the Coral Sea 34.1%

65.8%

Attack – Strike Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Attack Air Defense

Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)

Multi-role Aerial Refueling

Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR)

Electronic Warfare (EW) 11 Atomic Mission Era – USS Forrestal (CV-59) in 1960

83 Aircraft 10 x A-3 Skywarriors (1 sq)

12 x A-1 Skyraiders (1 sq)

24 x A-4 Skyhawks (2 sq)

13 x F-6 Skyray (1 sq)

14 x F-8 Crusader (1 sq)

7 x A-1 AEW/ASW variants (1 det.) 3 x F-8 ISR variants (1 det.)

8.4% 3.6% Attack Attack – Strike Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Air Defense 32.5% Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) 55.4% ISR

Multi-role Aerial Refueling ASW/AEW

Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR)

Electronic Warfare (EW) 12 Vietnam War Era – USS Forrestal (CV-59) in 1972

73 Aircraft

24 x A-7 Corsair IIs (2 sq)

8 x A-6 Intruders (1 sq)

4 x A-6 refueling variants (part of A-6 sq)

24 x F-4 Phantom IIs (1 sq)

7 x SH-3 Sea Kings (1 sq)

2 x A-3 EW/refueling variants (1 det.)

4 x E-2B Hawkeyes (1 sq)

2.7% 5.5% 5.5% Attack Multi-role Attack – Strike Airborne Early Warning (AEW) 9.6% 43.8% ASW Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) AEW&C Multi-role Aerial Refueling 32.9% EW/Refueling

Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) Refueling

Electronic Warfare (EW) 13 Late Cold War – USS Eisenhower (CVN-69) in 1988 73 Aircraft

20 x A-7 Corsair IIs (2 sq)

3 x EA-6B Prowlers (1 sq)

10 x A-6 Intruders (1 sq)

20 x F-14A Tomcats (2 sq)

7 x SH-3 Sea Kings (1 sq)

3 x E-2C Hawkeyes (1 sq)

3 x A-6 refueling variants (part of A-6 sq)

7 x S-3 Vikings (1 sq)

4.1%4.1% 4.1% Attack – Strike Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Attack Air Defense Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) ASW 19.2% 41.1% Multi-role Aerial Refueling AEW&C EW Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) 27.4% Refueling Electronic Warfare (EW) 14 Current CVW - USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) in 2018

69 Aircraft

48 x F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets (4 sq)

5 x E-2D Hawkeyes (1 sq)

5 x EA-18G Growlers (1 sq) 6 x MH-60S Seahawks (1 sq) 5 x MH-60R Seahawks (1 sq)

8.8% 7.4% Multi-role Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Attack – Strike 5.9% ASW Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) 7.4% AEW&C

Multi-role Aerial Refueling 70.6% EW CSAR/MCM Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR)

Electronic Warfare (EW) 15 CVW Operational Concepts 21st Century Outer Air Battle uses distributed air defense at 800-1000 nm

DCA CAPs at 1000 w/ LR AAM 300 nm orbits (X3 for 60 degree arc)

ISR&T CAPs direct ground-launched SAMs to engage aircraft in other sectors ASCM CAPs at 200 nm to engage ASCMs w/SR AAM or laser

ISR&T CAPs direct ship-launched SAMs LHA/D can provide to engage aircraft in ISR&T CAPs engage additional ASCM other sectors aircraft with small CAP aircraft number of on-board AAMs ISR&T CAP outer layer E-2D to direct counter- orbits at 800-1000 nm of ASCM in inner layer 300 nm diameter; Shore base defended by FOV of 360 nm naval forces (X8 for 300 degree arc)

17 Future EMW relies on survivable platforms and expendable payloads

Passive IADS Active IADS Early warning S-band radar and C2 radar

Expendable sensors find targets for strike platforms

Decoys attract early warning Expendable EW missiles radars jam active IADS and decoy passive sensors Collaborative weapons engage targets

CVW AEA aircraft jam enemy aircraft sensors and communication links

Long-range bombers or CVW attack aircraft CVW attack aircraft strike targets deploy expendables ASW uses distributed unmanned sensors and CVW pouncers

“Pouncer” aircraft “Pouncer” aircraft

XLUSV w/ Variable Depth Sonar Glider USV w/ towed array Moored Gateway receiver Buoy

Enemy submarine

Sub-Surface Repeater Deep Sound Channel Communications Transformational Reliable Acoustic Path System (TRAPS)

Distributed sensors could be deployed by CVW attack aircraft, unmanned surface or undersea vessels, or submarines 19 ASW efforts can succeed by suppressing sub ops, vice killing them

900000 120

800000 Shipping losses (tons) 100 U-boats at sea in Atlantic 700000 U-boats sunk per month

600000 80

500000 60 400000

300000 40

200000 20 100000

0 0

Jul-40 Jul-41 Jul-42 Jul-43 Jul-44

Jan-43 Jan-45 Jan-40 Jan-41 Jan-42 Jan-44

Sep-43 Sep-39 Sep-40 Sep-41 Sep-42 Sep-44

Nov-39 Nov-40 Nov-41 Nov-42 Nov-43 Nov-44

Mar-40 Mar-41 Mar-42 Mar-43 Mar-44 Mar-45

May-44 May-40 May-41 May-42 May-43 May-45

CVW attack aircraft could use inexpensive weapons to alert enemy submarine to that is was detected and compel it to break of operations and evade 20 SUW, ASW by surface combatants and CAPs; C3 & targeting by ISR&T CAPs

TRAPS sensors ASW CAP ISR&T CAP outer layer orbits at 800-1000 nm (up to 8)

DDG w/MFTA (w/ passive and LFA detection ranges)

ASW CAP USV w/LFA sonar ARG ships can host ASW CAP UAVs

ASUW CAP MAC UUV field

21 Today’s CVW poorly suited for operating environment & U.S. strategy

20000 F-35C Lightning II F-4 Phantom A-6 Intruder 18000 F/A-18 E/F Future UCAV 16000 Super Hornet A-7 Corsair II

F/A-18 C/D Hornet 14000 F-14 Tomcat A-3 Skywarrior

12000

) Modern fighters and lbs strike-fighters Attack aircraft

10000 Payload Payload ( 8000 A-1 Skyraider A-4 Skyhawk 6000 TBD Devastator Early fighters TBM Avenger and attack 4000 F-6 Skyray aircraft F3H Demon 2000 F6F Hellcat SBD Dauntless F4F Wildcat 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Range (nm) Proposed CVW Aircraft and Composition New aircraft proposed for 2040 Navy CVWs

• UCAV − Survivable − 3000 nm range − UCAV AEA aircraft

• Refueling Aircraft − MQ-25 to start − Multi-mission capability needed − UCAV-based in future

• FA-XX − Derivative of existing aircraft − Survivable − Longer range than today’s strike-fighters Proposed 2040 CVW

Three V(U)AE squadrons: Each with 6 long-range, unmanned multi-missionattack aircraft (strike, SUW, ASW, EW)

One V(F)A squadron: 10 x F-35 aircraft

One VF squadron: 10 F/A-XX One V(U)AQ squadron: 6 EMW UCAVs

One VAW squadron: 6 E-2D AEW/C2 aircraft

Two VRC squadrons: Each with 6 unmanned multi- mission refueling aircraft

Two HSM/HSC squadrons: 11 MH-60R/S helicopters 25 2 MUX UAVs Strike-fighter focused 2040 CVW

One V(F)A squadron: 8 F/A-18 E/F aircraft

Two V(F)A squadrons: Each with 10 F-35C aircraft

One VF squadron: 10 FA-XX aircraft

One VAQ squadron: 6 E/A-18G aircraft

One VAW squadron: 6 E-2D AEW&C aircraft

Two VRC detachments: Each with 6 unmanned utility/tanker aircraft

Two HSM/HSC squadrons: 11 MH-60R/S helicopters 26 Balanced 2040 CVW

One VF squadron: 6 FA-XX or F/A-18 E/F aircraft

Two V(U)AE squadrons: Each with 6 long-range, unmanned multi- missionattack aircraft (strike, SUW, ASW)

Two VFA squadrons: Each with 10 x F-35C aircraft

One VAQ squadron: 6 E/A-18G aircraft

One VAW squadron: 6 E-2D AEW&C aircraft

Two VRC squadrons: Each with 6 unmanned utility/tanker aircraft

Two HSM/HSC squadrons: 11 MH-60R/S helicopters 27 Capacity of CVWs decrease and diverge with increasing range

300 Strike capacity with external refueling 250

200 F/A-18 E/F

F/A-18 E/F UCAV 150 UCAV

100

50 F-35C F-35C

type Weapons Strike/SUW Delivered - F-35C

JASSM 0 Proposed 2040 CVW Strike Capacity @700 nm Strike-fighter focused 2040 CVW Strike Capacity @ Balanced 2040 CVW Strike Capacity @ 700 nm 700 nm Analysis for strike mission using all strike-capable aircraft except 4 fighters that sweep for enemy air 300 defense aircraft; attacks occur from 300 nm using standoff weapons, which allows external carriage 250

200

150

100 Strike-Fighter Focused Balanced Proposed 50

0 NumberWeapons of Delivered CVW by 500 700 1100 1300 Range to Weapons Launch Point Beyond 700 nm, all available F/A-18 E/Fs or FA-XX are needed for tanking

240

220 DEAD Capacity with External Refueling

200 Analysis for offensive counterair (OCA) 180 or destruction of enemy air defenses (DEAD) mission using all air 160 warfare/strike-capable aircraft; attacks occur from 100 nm range, requiring 140 internal weapons 120

100

80 UCAV UCAV 60 40 F-35C DEAD/OCA DEAD/OCA Weapons Delivered atnm 1000 F-35C 20 F-35C 0 Proposed 2040 CVW Strike Capacity @1000 nm Strike-fighter focused 2040 CVW Strike Capacity @ Balanced 2040 CVW Strike Capacity @ 1000 nm 1000 nm

F-35C UCAV F/A-18 E/F Block III or FA-XX MQ-25

Although F/A-18 does not have internal weapons needed for this mission (yet), its use as a tanker enables CVWs to fully employ their stealthy strike capacity CVWs include more specialized aircraft when threat environment worsens Proportion of Missions in CVW Over Time 100.0% 90.0% Specialized 80.0% Air Defense - 70.0% Interceptor 60.0% Air Defense - Fighter 50.0% Multi-role 40.0%

30.0% Attack - Strike 20.0% 10.0% Attack - ASUW 0.0% 1938 1942 1945 1950 1953 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1988 1991 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2018 2021 2040

Breakdown of Specialized Aircraft on CVW by Mission Type 45.0% USMC CAS 40.0% USMC Airlift 35.0% Refueling ISR 30.0% EW/Refueling 25.0% EW CSAR/MCM 20.0% CSAR/Utility 15.0% CSAR ASW/Refueling 10.0% ASW 5.0% AEW&C/ASW

0.0% AEW&C Proposed CVW significantly increases strike efficiency

Combat Range x Max Payload per Spot Factor (Factors of 1991 CVW)

3.750

3.500

3.250

3.000

2.750

2.500

2.250

2.000

1.750

1.500

1.250

1.000

0.750

0.500

0.250

0.000 1938 1942 1945 1950 1953 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1988 1991 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2018 2021 2040

UCAV could provide longer range with similar payload to F-35C in a more efficient form factor; enables increases to CVW size without changing CVN Implementation Recommendations

• Sustain procurement of F/A-18 E/Fs as planned through 2023 • Sustain F-35C procurement as planned through 2024 – First half of production, resulting in 10F-35C per CVW • Develop the FA-XX fighter during 2020–2024 – Derivative of an existing aircraft, with production starting in 2025 • Develop a low-observable UCAV attack aircraft during 2020–2024 – Production starting in 2025 • Continue development of the MQ-25 – Transition program to a UCAV-based refueling aircraft • Retire E/A-18Gs as they reach their end of service life starting in the late 2020s – Replacing capability with UCAVs and UAV and missile-expendable EMW payloads • Field a MALE rotary-wing UAV – In concert with the U.S. Marine Corps – Such as the Tactically Exploitable Reconnaissance Node (TERN) Although the proposed CVW takes decades, it is a marked transformation

1200

1000

800

600

400 Total CVW Fixed Wing Aircraft Inventory 200

0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 FA-XX UCAV Refueling Aircraft F/A-18E/F E/A-18G F-35C E-2D

About 1/3 of carrier fixed wing aviation is unmanned when the proposed CVW is implemented; significant implications for organization, personnel, & readiness Proposed CVW costs less overall than alternative CVWs

40

35

30

25

20 Proposed Strike-Fighter Balanced

15 Total CVW Cost in $B FY18 $B in Cost CVW Total 10

5

0

Proposed CVW replaces strike-fighters with smaller number of UCAVs during first 10 years; other CVWs need to recapitalize manned aircraft during 2030s Questions?