Regaining the High Ground at Sea Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition Study outline • Key operational challenges for naval forces • Naval strategy and posture • New carrier air wing operational concepts • Proposed aircraft and air wing composition • Recommendations and implementation Long-range sensors & weapons provide escalation dominance NOTE: Range arcs are illustrative Northern Military District of possible threats rather than an actual force laydown. SS-N-27A (500 km) Central Military District H-6K (1800 km) Western Military District OTH-R Receivers CJ-10 (2,200 km) Eastern Military District DF-11A/ CSS-7 Mod 1 OTH-R (350 km) Receiver Southern Military District DDG (3 days, 1200 km) OTH-R Receivers SS-N-22 (240 km) S-300PMU (90 km) S-300PMU1 (150 km) Oahu S-300PMU2/ HQ-9 (200 km) 7000 km S-400 (400 km) CONUS 7500+ km SSK (18 days, 1730 km) SS-N-27A (350km) 500 km Adversary able to mount attacks all along escalation ladder; U.S. and allies SSNneed (75 days, 3250 km) YJ-82 (33km) to be survivable and effective at various scales to provide options 3 Threat inside 1000 nm may prevent effective CVW or air base operations 200 nm 400 nm 600 nm 800 nm 1,000 nm 1,200 nm 1,400 nm 1,600 nm 1,800 nm 2,000 nm 2,200 nm 1 Day of PLAAF Air Raids Rocket Forces Conventional Missiles • 2 x JH-7A Fighter-Bomber Brigades (of 4 in PLAAF, Range Payload ASM 2,000 60/120 JH-7As as given in IISS) System Missiles Launchers (nm) (lbs) Variant? Assumptions: • Ranges measured from China coastline DF-11A 270 1,100 - ~890 108 • Assumes 4 hr turnaround time, 70% Ao, multiple crews DF-15B 430 1,100 Yes ~425 81 • Stairsteps represent switch to drop tanks • Constant rate of fuel burn assumed DF-16 540 ? - ~30 12 • No aerial refueling DF-21A 1,350 1,320 - 80 1,500 DF-21C 945 1,320 - ~300 36 DF-21D 1,080 1,320 Yes 18 DF-26 2,160 ? Yes ~30 16 DH-10 1,190 1,100 - ~375 54 Source: IHS Jane’s (range, payload, CEP, variants), IISS (launchers), missile inventories estimated using DoD and Jane's information. DF-26 and DF-16 payloads assumed to be equal to DF-21 and DF-15, respectively, for illustrative purposes. 1,000 Beyond 1000-1200 nm, maximum PLA salvo lowers to DF-11A SRBM Total Payload Deliverable (tons) Deliverable Payload Total ~600 1000 lb weapons 500 DF-15B SRBM DF-16 MRBM DF-21C MRBM DF-21D ASBM DH-10 GLCM DF-21A MRBM DF-26 IRBM Hanoi Taipei Manila Tokyo Tokyo Guam (via north) (via east) Okinawa 4 New air defenses could enable CSGs to counter aggression in contested areas 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Number of engagements 2 in minutes engagements ofNumber 100 0 Today 100 nm Today 10-30 nm Proposed 100 nm Proposed 10-30 nm SM-2/6 ESSM EW HPRF Laser Mk45 gun w/HVP 4 aircraft CAP Could enable CSG to withstand a single PLA salvo at 1000 nm; goal is to cause PLA to wait for a better opportunity, creating a window for CVW operations 5 CVW ops focus on regional powers and periphery of great power conflict Hawaii Wake Island Guam Marshall Islands Diego Garcia CVW needs to be able to: • Clear adversary forces around edge of conflict area (islands, ships) • Conduct small-scale attacks on or near CVW can support all operations adversary territory against regional powers, and may be needed to deter opportunistic aggression 1000 nm CSGs best suited for small-scale ops at long-range; large-scale ops at edge of great power confrontations; & full range of ops against regional powers 6 Strategy and CVW Posture CSBA architecture aligns with NDS posture of “contact” & “blunt” forces Arctic CVN CVL Destroyer DDG-1000 Norwegian Sea / Frigate North Atlantic SSN Small Deck Amphib Patrol Ship North Sea / Baltic Sea East China Sea CONUS Extra Mediterranean / Rotation Base Black Sea Persian Gulf Western Pacific South China Arabian Sea Sea West Latin Africa America Maneuver Force 8 Surface/sub forces for rapid, high-volume response; CVW sustains operations Force Composition Weapons delivered at 800 nm 70.0 1400.00 60.0 1200.00 50.0 1000.00 40.0 800.00 30.0 600.00 20.0 400.00 10.0 200.00 0.0 0.00 Western Pacific Deterrence Maneuver Force Deterrence Forces (one salvo) Maneuver Force (First Salvo) Maneuver Force (subsequent Forces salvos; up to 3 per day) CVN CVL DDG-1000 DDG-51 and CG FFG Patrol ship XLDUSV SSN XLDUUV Large Deck Amphib Small Deck Amphib CVW can deliver relatively large salvos multiple times a day, whereas Deterrence Forces can deliver a large salvo once before withdrawing to reload 9 Evolution of the CVW Battle of Midway– USS Yorktown (CV-5) in June 1942 79 Aircraft 36 x SBD Dauntless (2 sq) 16 x TBD Devastator (1 sq) 27 x F4F Wildcat (1 sq) = Added to USS Yorktown after the Battle of the Coral Sea 34.1% 65.8% Attack – Strike Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Attack Air Defense Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Multi-role Aerial Refueling Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) Electronic Warfare (EW) 11 Atomic Mission Era – USS Forrestal (CV-59) in 1960 83 Aircraft 10 x A-3 Skywarriors (1 sq) 12 x A-1 Skyraiders (1 sq) 24 x A-4 Skyhawks (2 sq) 13 x F-6 Skyray (1 sq) 14 x F-8 Crusader (1 sq) 7 x A-1 AEW/ASW variants (1 det.) 3 x F-8 ISR variants (1 det.) 8.4% 3.6% Attack Attack – Strike Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Air Defense 32.5% Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) 55.4% ISR Multi-role Aerial Refueling ASW/AEW Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) Electronic Warfare (EW) 12 Vietnam War Era – USS Forrestal (CV-59) in 1972 73 Aircraft 24 x A-7 Corsair IIs (2 sq) 8 x A-6 Intruders (1 sq) 4 x A-6 refueling variants (part of A-6 sq) 24 x F-4 Phantom IIs (1 sq) 7 x SH-3 Sea Kings (1 sq) 2 x A-3 EW/refueling variants (1 det.) 4 x E-2B Hawkeyes (1 sq) 2.7% 5.5% 5.5% Attack Multi-role Attack – Strike Airborne Early Warning (AEW) 9.6% 43.8% ASW Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) AEW&C Multi-role Aerial Refueling 32.9% EW/Refueling Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) Refueling Electronic Warfare (EW) 13 Late Cold War – USS Eisenhower (CVN-69) in 1988 73 Aircraft 20 x A-7 Corsair IIs (2 sq) 3 x EA-6B Prowlers (1 sq) 10 x A-6 Intruders (1 sq) 20 x F-14A Tomcats (2 sq) 7 x SH-3 Sea Kings (1 sq) 3 x E-2C Hawkeyes (1 sq) 3 x A-6 refueling variants (part of A-6 sq) 7 x S-3 Vikings (1 sq) 4.1%4.1% 4.1% Attack – Strike Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Attack Air Defense Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) ASW 19.2% 41.1% Multi-role Aerial Refueling AEW&C EW Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) 27.4% Refueling Electronic Warfare (EW) 14 Current CVW - USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) in 2018 69 Aircraft 48 x F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets (4 sq) 5 x E-2D Hawkeyes (1 sq) 5 x EA-18G Growlers (1 sq) 6 x MH-60S Seahawks (1 sq) 5 x MH-60R Seahawks (1 sq) 8.8% 7.4% Multi-role Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Attack – Strike 5.9% ASW Attack – Surface Warfare (SUW) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) 7.4% AEW&C Multi-role Aerial Refueling 70.6% EW CSAR/MCM Air Defense - Fighter/Interceptor Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) Electronic Warfare (EW) 15 CVW Operational Concepts 21st Century Outer Air Battle uses distributed air defense at 800-1000 nm DCA CAPs at 1000 w/ LR AAM 300 nm orbits (X3 for 60 degree arc) ISR&T CAPs direct ground-launched SAMs to engage aircraft in other sectors ASCM CAPs at 200 nm to engage ASCMs w/SR AAM or laser ISR&T CAPs direct ship-launched SAMs LHA/D can provide to engage aircraft in ISR&T CAPs engage additional ASCM other sectors aircraft with small CAP aircraft number of on-board AAMs ISR&T CAP outer layer E-2D to direct counter- orbits at 800-1000 nm of ASCM in inner layer 300 nm diameter; Shore base defended by FOV of 360 nm naval forces (X8 for 300 degree arc) 17 Future EMW relies on survivable platforms and expendable payloads Passive IADS Active IADS Early warning S-band radar and C2 radar Expendable sensors find targets for strike platforms Decoys attract early warning Expendable EW missiles radars jam active IADS and decoy passive sensors Collaborative weapons engage targets CVW AEA aircraft jam enemy aircraft sensors and communication links Long-range bombers or CVW attack aircraft CVW attack aircraft strike targets deploy expendables ASW uses distributed unmanned sensors and CVW pouncers “Pouncer” aircraft “Pouncer” aircraft XLUSV w/ Variable Depth Sonar Glider USV w/ towed array Moored Gateway receiver Buoy Enemy submarine Sub-Surface Repeater Deep Sound Channel Communications Transformational Reliable Acoustic Path System (TRAPS) Distributed sensors could be deployed by CVW attack aircraft, unmanned surface or undersea vessels, or submarines 19 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 suppressing sub ops, vice killing suppressing sub ops, vicekilling them by succeed can ASW efforts CVW attack aircraft could use inexpensive weapons to alert enemy submarine to to submarine enemy alert to weapons inexpensive use could aircraft attack CVW 0 Sep-39 that is was detected and compel it to break of operations and evade evade and operationsof break to it compel and detected was is that Nov-39 Jan-40 Mar-40 May-40 Jul-40 Sep-40 Nov-40 Jan-41 Mar-41 May-41 Jul-41 Sep-41 Nov-41 Jan-42 Mar-42 May-42 Jul-42 Sep-42 Nov-42 Jan-43 Mar-43 May-43 Jul-43 Sep-43 Nov-43 Jan-44 U-boats sunk month per U-boats at in Atlanticsea Shipping losses (tons) Mar-44 May-44 Jul-44 Sep-44 Nov-44 Jan-45 Mar-45 May-45 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 20 SUW, ASW by surface combatants and CAPs; C3 & targeting by ISR&T CAPs TRAPS sensors ASW CAP ISR&T CAP outer layer orbits at 800-1000 nm (up to 8) DDG w/MFTA (w/ passive and LFA detection ranges) ASW CAP USV w/LFA sonar ARG ships can host ASW CAP UAVs ASUW CAP MAC UUV field 21 Today’s CVW poorly suited for operating environment & U.S.