Belarus: Danger Ahead – EU Response Needed by John Lough Libmod Policy Paper October 2019
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LibMod Policy Paper October 2019 Belarus: Danger ahead – EU response needed by John Lough LibMod Policy Paper October 2019 Contents Foreword – Why we should be paying attention to Belarus 3 Executive summary 4 Belarus: Danger ahead – EU response needed 5 Geopolitical context 8 Political situation 10 Economy 12 Human rights 15 Relations with Russia 17 The EU’s relations with Belarus 19 Conclusions 20 Recommendations Policy issues 21 Economy 21 Civil society 22 Education 22 About the author 23 Titel image: Wikimedia, „LukParad9maj“ by Gruszecki, CC-BY-SA 3.0 2 Foreword Why we should be paying attention The disparity in the political, economic and military to Belarus power of the two states will make it nearly impossible for Lukashenka to continue resisting the pressure from Belarus fell largely off the radar European public after the Kremlin indefinitely, unless, that is, the West creates the pro-democracy movement foundered there in 2010. some alternative breathing space for him. Possible options It shouldn’t have. The country has become the latest include a partnership agreement, improved access to stage for Russia’s great-power ambitions. Putin has the European internal market, energy-sector coopera- ratcheted up the pressure on Belarus to integrate into tion and the promotion of medium-sized enterprises. a state union. This would put an end to Belarusian Membership in the Council of Europe should also be independence and would have serious consequences considered, provided that Lukashenka is willing to eli- for the strategic situation in Central and Eastern Europe. minate the death penalty and recognise the jurisdiction As it happens, a union of states might well open a con- of the European Court of Human Rights. venient path to a new presidency for Putin when his The EU must find a way to strengthen Belarusian inde- current term runs out. pendence without lending legitimacy to Lukashenka’s Moscow’s most powerful leverage over the Belarusian dictatorial reign. It cannot and must not guarantee regime lies in the economic dependency of the latter. him lifelong rule. But it could offer him the prospect of The message: the preferential terms for its oil and natural improved relations with the West that are not tied to gas supplies and loans will only continue if Belarus conditions that would lead straight to his resignation. sacrifices its sovereignty. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is At a minimum, the EU would have to insist that Luka ramping up the activities of its political networks in shenka allow civil society to breathe. Democracy grows Belarus as well. from the bottom up. Dragging his feet, Lukashenka has managed to resist We should not treat Belarus like a forecourt of the so far. While he has not called the union treaty into Kremlin. There are many there who see themselves as question, he nonetheless insists on Belarus sovereignty. Europeans. Visa-free travel, scholarship programmes Lukashenka has no desire to become a governor serving and cultural exchange would be oxygen for democratic at Putin’s pleasure, and he wants to keep Belarus well civil society in Belarus. The promotion of small- and out of Russia’s conflict with the West. medium-sized enterprises would reduce dependency on a too-powerful state. The EU should concentrate on The aim of fending off the Kremlin’s embrace is one these catalysts for change in its policy towards Belarus. on which the interests of the regime and the country’s national interests coincide. A large majority of the Bel- This policy paper by John Lough, a British expert on arusian population wants an independent Belarusian Eastern Europe, analyses the tensions between Belarus, state with good relations with both Russia and the EU. Russia and the EU and discusses political measures that might help to strengthen Belarusian independence. In An independent Belarus lies in the EU’s strategic interest view of the pressure being exerted Russia, it is high time as well. Should Putin succeed in gobbling up this little that the EU pursued an active policy towards Belarus. neighbour, this would be a serious blow to all hopes for democratic change. The extension of the deployment zone of the Russian military – including for the deploy- Berlin, in October 2019 ment of nuclear missiles – right up to the borders of Poland and Lithuania would be another consequence, Marieluise Beck, Ralf Fücks, of no minor importance. Center for Liberal Modernity (LibMod) Belarus: Danger ahead – EU response needed 3 From 2005 to 2015, this was worth nearly $10bn a year. Executive summary The IMF forecasts medium-term growth of the Belarusian economy of around 2%. • Belarus is a textbook authoritarian state with power • Many EU capitals regard Belarus as an extension of concentrated in the hands of a single individual who Russia and take little interest in it. EU leaders are also ensures that the state’s law enforcement agencies and uncomfortable dealing with its long-time autocratic judicial system function as instruments of repression leader, Alexander Lukashenka. Such attitudes make to suppress dissent. The death penalty is still in force. it hard for the EU to see the danger from Moscow’s Around 400 executions have reportedly taken place efforts to pull the country into a closer embrace. These since 1991. could easily de-stabilise the situation in Belarus with • There are signs that some non-political NGOs may serious consequences for European security. be able to play a more prominent role in helping to • Belarus is Russia’s closest and most important ally address, for example, social and environmental issues after the ‘loss’ of Ukraine and the Kremlin appears • The warming of relations between the EU and Belarus determined to stop it gravitating towards Europe beyond since 2014 has so far brought few tangible results. The Russia’s control. Different constituencies in Moscow two sides have still not signed off on the EU-Belarus appear to agree that Belarus has to give more in return Partnership Priorities, a roadmap for cooperation in for receiving generous levels of subsidies from Rus- 2019 and 2020. The Partnership and Cooperation sia that sustain its unreformed economy and social Agreement concluded with Belarus in 1995 still awaits welfare system. ratification. However, the two sides recently completed • Belarus is currently facing unprecedented pressure negotiations on a Visa Facilitation and Readmission from Moscow as uncertainty increases about what Agreement. One bright spot in the relationship is the will happen in Russia after 2024 when Putin is due EU’s support for Belarusian companies seeking to to leave office. A ‘Crimean’ scenario leading to full access new markets. In addition, the European Bank incorporation of the country into the Russian Federation for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the is very unlikely. Although Moscow is seeking greater European Investment Bank (EIB) are increasingly active integration between the two countries as part of their in Belarus. People to people contacts remain relatively ‘Union State’ project begun in the 1990s, it faces clear limited. constraints because of its own stagnating economy. • The outlook over the next five years is for Belarus to • Over 25 years, Lukashenka has learned to play a weak become poorer and social discontent to grow. At the hand in relations with Moscow with considerable skill. same time, Russia is likely to remain distracted by its He has closed down the space for political opposition, own internal problems and trapped in a confrontational depriving Russia of alternative options. He has also relationship with the West. This situation carries serious occasionally put down markers of Belarusian sovereignty dangers for the stability of Belarus and the surrounding that have irritated Moscow. region. The EU needs to recognise that it could face a potentially explosive situation in Belarus if an outbreak • Lukashenka has stated that he will run for a sixth of unrest persuades Moscow to abandon Lukashenka presidential term in 2020. Presidential elections held while blaming the West for destabilising the country. after 1994 when Lukashenka was first elected have been neither free nor fair. In 2006 and again in 2010, • To guard against these scenarios, the EU needs to put the authorities clamped down hard on protests against in place a set of policies that can support Belarusian vote-rigging. The EU’s principled policy position of sovereignty by reducing its economic dependence calling on the Belarusian authorities to ensure freedom on Russia, diversifying its relations and preparing the of assembly and create space for civil society poses a ground for inevitable reforms. Without determined direct challenge to Lukashenka’s authority. engagement by the EU, Belarus could implode because of the brittle nature of the current system. • The structure of the Belarusian economy reflects Lukas- henka’s efforts to protect his rule. He scrupulously • The EU must look beyond its values agenda to see the avoided the ‘oligarch’ privatisations seen across most issues at stake in Belarus and the forces at play. With a of the rest of the former Soviet Union because they carefully calibrated approach, the EU can help Belarus would have created interest groups that would have avoid the implosion scenario and set it on a track of undercut his power. State-owned companies account internal renewal. In the process, it can contribute to for nearly 75% of GDP and employ the bulk of the consolidating Belarus as a sovereign, independent work force. The economy remains heavily dependent country that can find an identity and role for itself in on cheap Russian energy supplies and other largesse. the international community. LibMod Policy Paper 1, October 2019 4 Belarus: Danger ahead – EU response needed by John Lough Bordering three EU states, Ukraine and Russia, Belarus straddles one of Europe’s civilisational fault lines.