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Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Vietnam

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Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Vietnam Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific Vietnam Derek Grossman C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4412z6 For more information on this series, visit www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0520-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: globe: jcrosemann/GettyImages; flags: luzitanija/Adobe Stock Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface As part of the project Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition, this country-level report explores Vietnam’s perspective on rising U.S.-China competition and potential implications. This research provides findings and recommendations for the sponsor, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF), as well as other military and civilian decisionmakers focused on the future of the Indo-Pacific region. The report should also be of interest to the national security community and members of the general public, especially those with an interest in U.S.-China competition in the Indo-Pacific. The other reports in this series are available at www.rand.org/US-PRC- influence. The research reported here was sponsored by Brig Gen Michael P. Winkler (PACAF/A5/8) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2019 project titled “Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo- Pacific” that assists the Air Force in evaluating U.S. and Chinese influence and assessing possible Air Force, joint force, and U.S. government options. Research was completed in September 2019. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Department of the Air Force’s (DAF’s) federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses, supporting both the United States Air Force and the United States Space Force. PAF provides the DAF with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with the DAF in September 2019. The draft report, issued in January 2020, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................. v Tables ............................................................................................................................................. vi Summary ....................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... ix Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................. x 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 A Note on Sources .................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Vietnam’s Goals, Regional Outlook, and Military Modernization ............................................. 7 The New Situation with China ............................................................................................................... 11 Vietnam’s Military Modernization ......................................................................................................... 14 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 17 3. Key Drivers of Vietnam’s Foreign Policy ................................................................................ 18 Vietnam and China, Forever Comrades-in-Arms ................................................................................... 19 Vietnamese Society’s Extreme Anti-China Sentiment ........................................................................... 21 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 23 4. Vietnam’s Ties to China and the United States ........................................................................ 24 China: The Unavoidable Partner ............................................................................................................ 24 U.S.-Vietnam Progress Limited by China .............................................................................................. 34 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 41 5. Vietnam’s Partners Beyond China and the United States ......................................................... 43 Vietnam’s Other Partners Mostly Help Balance China .......................................................................... 45 Implications for Vietnam’s Participation in the Quad and Trilateral Exchanges ................................... 54 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 56 6. Vietnam Responds to Intensifying U.S.-China Competition .................................................... 57 Vietnam’s Deteriorating Security and Economic Environment ............................................................. 57 Vietnam Blames China for Deteriorating Security Environment: Time to Upgrade U.S. Ties ............. 61 Vietnam Likely to Remain in Hedging Mode in the Coming Years ...................................................... 64 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 65 7. Assessing U.S.-China Influence in Vietnam and Implications ................................................. 66 Framework for Grading Relative Influence ............................................................................................ 66 Implications for the U.S. Department of Defense’s Indo-Pacific Strategy ............................................ 71 Implications for the U.S. Air Force ........................................................................................................ 75 Findings and Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 77 Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 79 References ..................................................................................................................................... 88 iv Figures Figure 1.1. Map of the Indo-Pacific Region ................................................................................... 2 Figure 7.1. Relative U.S. and Chinese Influence in Vietnam ....................................................... 72 v Tables Table 1.1. Variables for Assessing Relative U.S.-China Influence ................................................ 5 Table 5.1. Hierarchy of Vietnam’s Partnerships, with Selected Examples .................................. 44 Table 7.1. Variables for Assessing Relative U.S.-China Influence .............................................. 67 Table A.1. Color Coding of Framework Variables ....................................................................... 79 vi Summary Issue This report focuses on two questions: What is the current state of U.S. versus Chinese influence in Vietnam? And to what extent can the United States increase
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