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Ai, Politics and Security in the Asia Pacific Program

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Ai, Politics and Security in the Asia Pacific Program AI, POLITICS AND SECURITY IN THE ASIA PACIFIC PROGRAM Thursday 14 March - Friday 15 March 2019 Mills Room, Chancelry Building, 10 East Road, ANU Co-convened by: In partnership with: Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs (ANU) Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence (Cambridge) CONTENTS Welcome 1 Conference Program 2 - 3 Session 1: What is AI? 4 Session 2: AI, International Norms and Challenges to the Ethics and Laws of War 5 - 6 Session 3: AI and the Changing Nature of Security, Strategy and War 7 - 8 Session 4: The Future of AI and Associated Risks 8 Session 5: Understanding the Science Behind Targeted Messaging 9 Session 6: AI, Big Data Analytics, the Citizen and the State 10 - 11 Session 7: The Case of Cambridge Analytica: Revelations and Lessons Learned 12 Session 8: AI Impacts: Building Effective Networks in the Asia Pacific 13 - 15 Participant List 16 - 17 The ANU Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs CFI is an interdisciplinary research centre committed (Bell School) is a world-leading centre for research, to exploring the impacts of AI, both short and long education, and policy analysis on international term; it is based at the University of Cambridge, with and Asia Pacific politics, security, diplomacy, and ‘spokes’ at Oxford, Imperial College London, and strategic affairs. UC Berkeley. WELCOME FROM WORKSHOP CO-CONVENORS The existing and potential impact of AI is impossible to ignore. AI already influences every aspect of our lives, sometimes in seemingly unremarkable ways. Yet, we are also seeing signs of how it may radically alter international politics and security. From the use of AI by Cambridge Analytica to send targeted messages to voters through social media in the context of Brexit and the 2016 US presidential election, to on-going debates in the European Parliament and the UN about lethal autonomous weapons, the far-reaching political and security implications of AI demand our attention. The Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs (The Australian National University) and the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence (University of Cambridge) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in September 2018. The aim of this MoU is to foster research collaboration on the impact of AI on the politics and security of the Asia Pacific. This workshop is our first joint endeavour. We hope that it will do the following: > Bring together outstanding scholars and practitioners working on the political and security implications of AI to establish a network of people making important contributions in this area; > Introduce those with expertise in politics and security (who may not have previously focused on AI) to those with specific expertise in AI in order to open up new possibilities for collaboration - and, importantly; > Provide a forum for discussion and debate about some of the most significant and challenging problems that we currently face in international politics. We are very grateful to you for joining us and look forward to two days of learning and lively discussion! Professor Huw Price Professor Toni Erskine Academic Director Director Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs University of Cambridge The Australian National University Huw Price and Toni Erskine signing a ‘memorandum of understanding’, Singapore in 2018. AI, Politics and Security in the Asia Pacific 1 THURSDAY 14 MARCH 2019 8.30-9.00am Registration, tea and coffee 9.00-9.30am Welcome and Introduction Professor Toni Erskine, Director, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, ANU Professor Huw Price, Academic Director, Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence, Cambridge Professor Mike Calford, Provost, ANU 9.30-10.30am SESSION 1: WHAT IS AI? Dr Karina Vold (CFI, Cambridge) > What is AI? Reflections from Philosophy Professor Lexing Xie (Research School of Computer Science, ANU) > Explaining AI to Political Scientists and Policy Makers: Insights from Computer Science Chair: Professor Huw Price (CFI, Cambridge) 10.30-11.00am Morning tea 11.00am-1.00pm SESSION 2: AI, INTERNATIONAL NORMS AND CHALLENGES TO THE ETHICS AND LAWS OF WAR Professor Toby Walsh via Skype (Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, UNSW) > Technical Concerns around “Killer Robots” Professor Toni Erskine (Bell School, ANU) > AI and the Problem of Misplaced Responsibility in War Jake Lucchi (Head of Content and AI - Public Policy, Google Asia Pacific) > Google’s ‘AI Principles’: How Can Google Contribute to Developing International Norms on Issues such as Lethal Autonomous Weapons? Chair: Associate Professor Bina D’Costa (Dept. of International Relations, Bell School, ANU) Discussant: Associate Professor Seth Lazar (School of Philosophy, ANU) 1.00-2.00pm Lunch 2.00-3.30pm SESSION 3: AI AND THE CHANGING NATURE OF SECURITY, STRATEGY AND WAR Major General Mick Ryan (Australian War College) > Strategic Competition, War and AI Dr Shashi Jayakumar (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU) > AI and Security: A Perspective from Singapore Chair: Dr Meighen McCrae (Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, Bell School, ANU) Discussant: Professor Evelyn Goh (Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, Bell School, ANU) 3.30-4.00pm Afternoon tea 4.00-6.30pm SESSION 4: THE FUTURE OF AI AND ASSOCIATED RISKS Dr Shahar Avin (Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, Cambridge) In this interactive exercise, participants will assume the roles of key stakeholders in the future of AI, from tech companies, through governments and militaries, to other industries (including defence) and NGOs. Together we will create a single, rich narrative of one possible way the relevant technologies could develop and be deployed. We will use this narrative to explore open questions about the future of AI, its poitential impacts and risks, and key decision points in the present and the near future, touching on themes from the entire workshop agenda. 2 Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs FRIDAY 15 MARCH 2019 8.30-9.00am Registration, tea and coffee 9.00-10.30am SESSION 5: UNDERSTANDING THE SCIENCE BEHIND TARGETED MESSAGING Vesselin Popov (Psychometrics Centre, Cambridge) > Predicting Psychological Traits from Digital Footprints > Microtargeting and Tailoring Chair: Dr George Carter (Dept. of Pacific Affairs, Bell School, ANU) Discussant: Dr Jenny Davis (School of Sociology, ANU) 10.30-10.45am Morning tea 10.45am-12.45pm SESSION 6: AI, BIG DATA ANALYTICS, THE CITIZEN AND THE STATE Bing Song (Director, Berggruen Institute China Center) > China’s Social Credit System Dr Karina Vold (CFI, Cambridge) > Privacy, Autonomy and Personalised Targeting: Rethinking How Personal Data Is Used Katherine Mansted (Belfer Center, Harvard; National Security College, ANU) > The Coming AI Wave: Can Democracy Survive? Chair: Hon Professor Brendan Sargeant (Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, Bell School, ANU) Discussant: Dr Sarah Logan (Dept. of International Relations, Bell School, ANU) 12.45-1.45pm Lunch 1.45-3.15pm SESSION 7: THE CASE OF CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA: REVELATIONS AND LESSONS LEARNED Vesselin Popov (Psychometrics Centre, Cambridge) Chair: Professor Toni Erskine (Bell School, ANU) Discussant: Dr Paul Kenny (Dept. of Political and Social Change, Bell School, ANU) 3.15-3.30pm Afternoon Tea 3.30-4.30pm SESSION 8: AI IMPACTS: BUILDING EFFECTIVE NETWORKS IN THE ASIA PACIFIC Roundtable with: - Bing Song (Vice President, Berggruen Institute China Center), co-chair - Professor Huw Price (CFI, Cambridge), co-chair - Sakuntala Akmeemana (Principal Sector Specialist - Development Policy Division, DFAT) - Jake Lucchi (Head of Content and AI - Public Policy, Google Asia Pacific) - Delia Pembrey (Augmented Intelligence Centre of Excellence, Department of Human Services) - Christina Parolin (Executive Director, Australian Academy of the Humanities) - Professor Duncan Ivison (Deputy Vice Chancellor, Research, University of Sydney) - Dr Yang Liu (CFI, Cambridge) 4.30-5.30pm Cocktail Reception AI, Politics and Security in the Asia Pacific 3 SESSION 1: WHAT IS AI? Dr Karina Vold Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence, University of Cambridge Karina Vold specialises in philosophy of mind and cognition. She received her Bachelor’s degree in philosophy and political science from the University of Toronto and her PhD in Philosophy from McGill University. She has been a visiting scholar at Ruhr University, a fellow at Duke University, and a lecturer at Carleton and McGill Universities. Vold is interested in the extent to which our minds are inseparable from our bodies and our wider social, cultural, and physical environments. Her recent work focuses on theories of cognitive extension, intelligence augmentation, neuroethics, and decision-making. At CFI she is exploring the topics of personalised targeting, the use of non-autonomous AI systems to aid human cognition, and ethical questions about the use of AI. Professor Lexing Xie Research School of Computer Science, The Australian National University Lexing Xie is Professor in the Research School of Computer Science at The Australian National University where she leads the ANU Computational Media lab (http://cm.cecs.anu.edu.au). Her research interests are in machine learning, optimisation and social media. Of particular recent interest are stochastic time series models, neural networks for sequences and languages, the intersection of prediction and planning, applied to diverse problems such as multimedia knowledge graphs and popularity in social media. Her research is supported by the US Air Force Office
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