CLIMATE CHANGE and ADAPTATION in the CARPATHIANS Produced by GRID-Arendal Teaterplassen 3 N-4836 Arendal Norway
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FUTURE IMPERFECT CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION IN THE CARPATHIANS Produced by GRID-Arendal Teaterplassen 3 N-4836 Arendal Norway A Centre Collaborating with UNEP Authors and contributors Saskia Werners Sándor Szalai Éva Kőpataki Attila Csaba Kondor Eleonora Musco DISCLAIMER This synthesis publication builds on the main findings of Hagen Koch three projects – CARPATCLIM, CARPIVIA and CarpathCC István Zsuffa – funded under the preparatory action “Climate of the Jiří Trombik Carpathian Basin” approved by the European Parliament. The development of this publication has been co-support- Klaudia Kuras ed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Mathilde Koeck through its inter-regional climate change project “Climate Monika Lakatos change action in developing countries with fragile moun- tainous ecosystems from a sub-regional perspective”, Richard Peters financed by the Government of Austria. Stijn Lambert Tomáš Hlásny Veronique Adriaenssens GRID-Arendal Editorial team Matthias Jurek Ownership, title and intellectual property rights of this vol- John Crump ume belong to the CARPATCLIM, CARPIVIA and CarpathCC Judith Maréchal projects. This volume is made available to the public free of charge. It may be reproduced in whole or in part for edu- cational or non-profit purposes without special permission Printed September 2014 from the copyright holder, if the acknowledgement of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale of for any other commercial purpose whatsoever Photos: without prior permission of the copyright holders. Cover photo: © iStock/1Tomm Back photo: © Miroslav Kazmierczak The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and contributors and do not necessarily reflect the view or policies of the institutions with which they are ISBN 978-82-7701-145-5 affiliated. 2 FUTURE IMPERFECT FUTURE IMPERFECT FUTURE IMPERFECT CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION IN THE CARPATHIANS FUTURE IMPERFECT 3 Duna-Ipoly National Park, Hungary Park, Duna-Ipoly National Contents Foreword 5 Executive Summary 7 The Carpathian Region 12 Geography 12 © Herczeg Zoltan Herczeg The Carpathian Convention: Cooperation and Sustainable Development 14 The Changing Carpathian Climate 15 Vulnerability and Adaptation in Six Important Sectors 20 Water resources 21 Forests and Forestry 24 Wetlands 26 Grasslands 28 Agriculture 30 Tourism 32 Conclusions and Recommendations 36 References and Further reading 38 Partners 39 4 FUTURE IMPERFECT FUTURE IMPERFECT Foreword The Carpathian region, forming an integrative part of human well-being. It is important to strengthen the level - facilitated by the Interim Secretariat in Vienna the wider Danube region, is a mountainous area of sustainable use of natural resources in the mountain - Parties to the Carpathian Convention have succeed- outstanding natural and cultural heritage shared by areas and adopt integrated, multi-sectoral ecosystem ed in developing the “Strategic Agenda on adaptation seven Carpathian countries, the majority of them be- management approaches including climate change to climate change in the Carpathian Region”. This will ing members of the European Union. adaptation which will benefit not only mountain com- be adopted by Ministers at the Fourth Meeting of the munities but also people downstream. Building on Conference of the Parties to the Carpathian Conven- Like many other mountain regions in Europe and a sound scientific basis, a strategic approach to cli- tion (COP4), in Mikulov, Czech Republic, from 23 to around the globe, the Carpathian mountain region pro- mate change adaptation across different sectors and 26 September 2014 and will provide the framework vides a multitude of essential ecosystem goods and levels of governance – in line with the EU Strategy on for further strategic action. services such as water provision, food and agriculture adaptation to climate change, adopted by the Euro- products, forest products, tourism and energy provi- pean Commission in April 2013 – is necessary. This report presents the major findings and outcomes sion that are important not only for local people, but of the three EU projects – CARPIVIA, CarpathCC and also for downstream communities. But these ecosys- Following an initiative by the European Parliament CARPATCLIM – funded under the preparatory action tem services – as well as the mountain communities and funded by the European Union, important re- “Climate of the Carpathian Basin” approved by the that are their custodians and beneficiaries – are par- search by several teams of experts has been under- European Parliament. Results from these projects are ticularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. taken in recent years in order to further investigate being integrated to the European Climate Adaptation climate change and adaptation in the Carpathians: Platform (Climate-ADAPT). With this report we hope to Regional climate change projections suggest more ir- from climate change projections to in-depth assess- further raise awareness about the Carpathian region – regular rainfall and a warmer climate in the Carpath- ments of the vulnerability to climate change of eco- a unique region in the heart of Europe which faces the ian basin. According to recent findings, the Carpathi- systems and their services in the Carpathian region. challenge of the impacts of climate change. We also an mountains will experience an increase of between This has led to the establishment of a diversified hope to stimulate further debate on climate change 3.0˚C and 4.5˚C during this century. Precipitation portfolio of sustainable adaptation measures with and adaptation in the Carpathians leading to concrete patterns will also change, leading to profound conse- the active and valuable cooperation of internation- follow-up actions that may also serve as inspiration for quences on the environment, on the economy and on al environmental experts. At the intergovernmental other mountain regions in Europe and beyond. HE János Áder HE Peter Žiga Janez Potočnik President of Hungary Minister of Environment of the Slovak Republic European Commissioner for the Environment Former member of the European Parliament (Presidency of Carpathian Convention 2011–2014) FUTURE IMPERFECT 5 The Carpathian Region t Lódz a Wieprz y p y r P a c i l r i Kovel Sty P Lublin Kielce Sluch Korosten Lutsk W is Rivne Bytom POLAND la Zhytomyr Gliwice Katowice Kraków Rzeszow Haryn CZE C H Lviv REPUBL I C Ternopil Khmelnytskyy Drohobych UKR AIN E h Zilina Va Gerlach Vinnytsya Banska Presov Ivano-Frankivsk Bystrica S L O V AKIA Kosice Kamyanets-Podilskyy Zvolen Uzhgorod rut H P Chernivtsi Gora Goverla Si ro ret n Ipel Salgotarjan Miskolc Nyiregyhaza Eger Satu Mare Botosani Vac Kékes Tatabanya Suceava Debrecen Baia Mare M Budapest old ova Szekesfehervar Szolnok Zalau Bistrita Iasi Kecskemet Oradea Piatra-Neamt H UNGAR Y Bekescsaba Cluj-Napoca Vaslui Tirgu Mures Bacau Crisu Szekszard l Alb Tr Szeged Miercurea-Cuic otus Arad R O M A N I A Pecs Subotica Alba Lulia Deva Timisoara Sibiu Moldoveanu Brasov Focsani Sir et Zrenjanin au Izmayil Novi Sad uz Braila Resita Buzau B Tulcea Targu Jiu Rimnicu Vilcea Ploiesti Belgrade Pitesti BUL GARIA A Drobeta-Turnu Severin rg es Slobozia S E RBIA Slatina Bucharest Craiova Calarasi Constanta Kragujevac Figure 1: The Carpathian region covers territory in seven countries. (GRID-Arendal) 6 FUTURE IMPERFECT FUTURE IMPERFECT Executive summary © This synthesis report is directed at policy makers and Saskia Werners the public in the Carpathian region. It brings together important findings and recommendations about cli- mate change impacts and adaptation from three linked research studies funded by the European Commission: • Climate of the Carpathian Region (CARPATCLIM), led by the Hungarian Meteorological Service, har- monized historic climate data from 1961–2010. Its main aim was to improve climate data to inves- tigate how the regional climate has changed over this period. It produced a high-resolution database for the Larger Carpathian Region, freely available at www.carpatclim-eu.org. • Carpathian Integrated Assessment of Vulnera- bility to Climate Change and Ecosystem-based Adaptation Measures (CARPIVIA) assessed the vulnerability to climate change of the Carpathian region’s main ecosystems. The project produced an inventory of climate change effects and ecosys- tem-based adaptation measures. For further infor- mation see www.carpivia.eu. • Climate change in the Carpathian Region (C arpathC C) The studies show that temperature and precipitation average temperature will increase by between 3ºC and examined the vulnerability of water, soil, forests, are changing throughout the Carpathians. 4.5ºC by the end of this century. ecosystems and related production systems. It pro- posed concrete ecosystem-based adaptation mea- Increasing winter and summer temperatures threaten Precipitation changes show even higher spatial variabil- sures, and it assessed their costs and benefits. For local and national policy objectives for agriculture, win- ity. Annual precipitation has increased in most of the further information see www.carpathcc.eu. ter tourism, and rural development, and raise a host of Carpathian region in the last 50 years with the exception economic and social issues. The average annual tem- of the western and south-eastern areas where there has Together these studies raise awareness about the ex- perature has increased by 0.6ºC to 1.6ºC, particularly been a decrease. In contrast, the north-east part of the tent and impacts of climate