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The Long-Term Impact of Restricted Access to Abortion on Children's Socioeconomic Outcomes

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The Long-Term Impact of Restricted Access to Abortion on Children's Socioeconomic Outcomes A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Hajdu, Gábor; Hajdu, Tamás Working Paper The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children's socioeconomic outcomes CERS-IE Working Papers, No. CERS-IE WP - 2020/31 Provided in Cooperation with: Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences Suggested Citation: Hajdu, Gábor; Hajdu, Tamás (2020) : The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children's socioeconomic outcomes, CERS-IE Working Papers, No. CERS-IE WP - 2020/31, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Budapest This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/237521 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS | KRTK-KTI MŰHELYTANULMÁNYOK The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children’s socioeconomic outcomes GÁBOR HAJDU – TAMÁS HAJDU CERS-IE WP – 2020/31 July 2020 https://www.mtakti.hu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CERSIEWP202031.pdf CERS-IE Working Papers are circulated to promote discussion and provoque comments, they have not been peer-reviewed. Any references to discussion papers should clearly state that the paper is preliminary. Materials published in this series may be subject to further publication. INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS, CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL STUDIES, BUDAPEST, 2020 ABSTRACT We examine the long-term consequences of restricted access to abortion following a change in the Hungarian abortion law in 1974. Due to a change that restricted access to legal abortions, the number of induced abortions decreased from 169,650 to 102,022 between 1973 and 1974, whereas the number of live births increased from 156,224 to 186,288. We analyze the effects on the adult outcomes of the affected newborns (educational attainment, labor market participation, teen fertility). We use matched large-scale, individual-level administrative datasets of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (population census 2011; live birth register), and we estimate the effects by comparing children born within a short timespan around the law change. We apply a difference-in-differences approach, building on the special rules of the new law that, despite the severe restriction, still made abortion permissible for selected groups of women. We control for the compositional change in the population of parents, rule out the effect of (unobserved) time trends and other potential behavioral responses to the law change, and draw causal inferences. We find that restricted access to abortion had, on average, a negative impact on the socioeconomic outcomes of the affected children. Children born after the law change have had worse educational outcomes, a greater likelihood of being unemployed at age 37, and a higher probability of being a teen parent. JEL codes: J13, J18, I18 Keywords: abortion; long-term effects; socioeconomic outcomes; education and labor outcomes; policy change; Hungary Gábor Hajdu Institute for Sociology, Centre for Social Sciences, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4, Hungary e-mail: [email protected] Tamás Hajdu Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4, Hungary e-mail: [email protected] Az terhességmegszakításhoz való hozzáférés korlátozásának hosszú távú hatása a gyermekek társadalmi-gazdasági jellemzőire HAJDU GÁBOR – HAJDU TAMÁS ÖSSZEFOGLALÓ Tanulmányunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy milyen hosszú távú következményei voltak a terhességmegszakításhoz való hozzáférés 1974-ben történő korlátozásának. A jogszabályváltozást követően a terhességmegszakítások száma 1973 és 1974 között 169 650- ről 102 022-re csökkent, míg az élveszületések száma 156 224-ről 186 288-ra nőtt. Elemzésünkben a terhességmegszakításhoz való hozzáférés korlátozásának az érintett újszülöttek felnőttkori jellemzőire (iskolai végzettség, munkaerő-piaci részvétel, fiatalkori gyerekvállalás) gyakorolt hatását vizsgáljuk. Az elemzéshez a Központi Statisztikai Hivatal egyéni szintű adminisztratív adatbázisait használjuk (2011. évi népszámlálás; élveszületési adatbázis), és a hatásokat a jogszabályváltozás előtt és után született gyermek összehasonlítása alapján becsüljük. Különbségek különbsége becslést alkalmazunk azt kihasználva, hogy a nők egyes csoportjainak a művi abortuszhoz való hozzáférését a jogszabályváltozás eltérően érintette. A szülők összetételének változására kontrolálva kiszűrjük a (nem megfigyelt) időbeli változások és a lehetséges viselkedési változások hatását, így eredményeinket oksági kapcsolatként értelmezzük. Eredményeink azt mutatják, hogy a terhességmegszakításhoz való hozzáférés korlátozása negatív hatással volt az érintett gyermekek átlagos társadalmi-gazdasági jellemzőire. Az érintett gyermekeknek alacsonyabb volt az iskolai végzettsége, nagyobb valószínűséggel voltak 37 éves korukban munkanélküliek, és nagyobb valószínűséggel váltak felnőttkoruk előtt szülővé. JEL: J13, J18, I18 Kulcsszavak: terhességmegszakítás; hosszú távú hatások; társadalmi-gazdasági jellemzők; iskolázottság és munkaerőpiaci jellemzők; policy változás, Magyarország The Long-Term Impact of Restricted Access to Abortion on Children’s Socioeconomic Outcomes Gábor Hajdua,*, Tamás Hajdub a Institute for Sociology, Centre for Social Sciences, Hungary b Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungary * corresponding author ([email protected]) Abstract We examine the long-term consequences of restricted access to abortion following a change in the Hungarian abortion law in 1974. Due to a change that restricted access to legal abortions, the number of induced abortions decreased from 169,650 to 102,022 between 1973 and 1974, whereas the number of live births increased from 156,224 to 186,288. We analyze the effects on the adult outcomes of the affected newborns (educational attainment, labor market participation, teen fertility). We use matched large-scale, individual-level administrative datasets of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (population census 2011; live birth register), and we estimate the effects by comparing children born within a short timespan around the law change. We apply a difference-in-differences approach, building on the special rules of the new law that, despite the severe restriction, still made abortion permissible for selected groups of women. We control for the compositional change in the population of parents, rule out the effect of (unobserved) time trends and other potential behavioral responses to the law change, and draw causal inferences. We find that restricted access to abortion had, on average, a negative impact on the socioeconomic outcomes of the affected children. Children born after the law change have had worse educational outcomes, a greater likelihood of being unemployed at age 37, and a higher probability of being a teen parent. Keywords: abortion, long-term effects, socioeconomic outcomes, education and labor outcomes, policy change, Hungary JEL codes: J13, J18, I18 Acknowledgment The work uses individual-level registry data of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (live births, population census 2011). The calculations and the conclusions within the paper are the intellectual product of the author. The source of funding and the HSCO had no role in the study design, the analysis, and interpretation of data or the writing of the article. Funding This work was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office – NKFIH (grant no. FK 124384). Tamás Hajdu was supported by the "Lendület" program of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (grant no. LP2018–2/2018). Data availability In this research, administrative registries of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (live births and census of 2011) were used. The deidentified microdata sets are available only for research purposes in a secure research room of the HCSO. Ethics approval and consent to participate No ethical approval was needed for this study because it was based on secondary analysis of the data obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO). The study used completely anonymized data with no identifiable information. We accessed the deidentified datasets in the secure data environment of the HCSO (HCSO-CERS research room) after an accreditation process. The researchers were required to sign a contract and a confidentiality commitment. 1
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