Congressional Program

CONGRESSIONAL PROGRAM

Africa’s Emergence: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S.

August 13-19, 2013

Vol. 28, No. 3

Dan Glickman Vice President, The Aspen Institute Executive Director, Congressional Program Washington, DC This project was made possible by grants from the Ford Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Henry Luce Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and the Rockefeller Foundation.

Pub #13/029 1954/CP/BK Table of Contents

Rapporteur’s Summary ...... 1 Connie Veillette

Sub-Saharan Africa and U.S. Security...... 9 Carol Lancaster

Emerging Africa: The Economic and Political Transformation in Half of Sub-Saharan Africa . . . 17 Steven Radelet

Food Security for Africa in the 21st Century: The Role of Science, Trade and Business ...... 23 Gebisa Ejeta

Competition for Africa’s Natural Resources: Who Wins? ...... 29 Jennifer Cooke

Democracy and Human Rights in Africa ...... 33 Sarah Margon

A Forklift in the Road: A Snapshot of Economic Choice and African Governance ...... 39 Mark Green

Food Security: Implications for Africa and the World ...... 45 Gordon Conway

Food Security: Implications for Africa and the World ...... 49 Khalid Bomba

U.S. Health Engagement in Africa: A Decade of Remarkable Achievement. Now What? ...... 55 Stephen Morrison

Conference Participants ...... 67

Conference Agenda ...... 69

Rapporteur’s Summary

Connie Veillette, Ph.D. Senior Fellow, The Lugar Center

The Aspen Institute’s Congressional Program commercial interests in many of the continent’s convened a conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia growing economies; threats relating to health and to consider the topic of Africa’s Emergence: Challenges disease outbreaks; and security concerns relating and Opportunities for the United States. Meeting from to political instability, weak democratic institutions, August 13-19, 2013, 23 members of Congress and terrorist groups taking advantage of poorly engaged with 14 American and African scholars governed and ungoverned areas. The case of Mali on a number of issues affecting Sub-Saharan Africa was used to demonstrate how even countries that and U.S. security, economic and humanitarian seem firmly on track to develop both economically interests. Both the U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia and politically can be prone to threats from militant and the Ethiopian Foreign Minister addressed the groups. conference. Participants also traveled to the town of From Boko Haram in Nigeria to Al-Shabaab Ambo to visit Peace Corps sites and to the USAID- in Somalia and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb supported Ethiopian Commodity Exchange. (AQIM), the threats are real and have consequences The conference began with a general discus- for African governments and U.S. interests. Isolated sion on Africa’s strategic importance to the United incidents, such as the bombings of U.S. embas- States and its political and economic development. sies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, were offered As the week progressed, members were able to as examples of tangible threats but so too is the discuss a variety of topics including human rights political instability that often accompanies radical- and religious freedom, food security, health, and ized group activity. Militant groups find amenable China’s interest in the continent. Scholars noted environments in weak states in which governments that the United States could affect these issues are unable to provide security or basic services. The through its policies relating to foreign assistance, creation of a U.S. African Command, AFRICOM, trade, and private sector investments but that, ulti- in 2008 was meant to be a platform for military-to- military partnerships. There were differing opin- mately, advances in these areas must be embraced ions on the merits of AFRICOM operations with by African leaders. some lauding its focus on building African military capacity and responding to humanitarian crises U.S. Interests in Sub-Saharan Africa. During while others expressed concern with possible mis- the opening session, scholars noted that U.S. inter- sion creep into areas in which the Department of ests in Africa are diverse but related including: Defense does not have expertise. Still others were humanitarian concerns with poverty and hunger; troubled by U.S. military operations, particularly

1 the use of drones, as potentially counter-productive corruption so that businesses will be more willing to the goal of strengthening U.S.-Africa relations. to make the investments that are fundamental to Despite these security concerns, there was some economic growth. Another scholar countered that thought among members that U.S. policies toward governments need to provide a regulatory environ- the continent had been too security-driven rather ment that is conducive to business activity. As the than focusing on more humanitarian, develop- economy and individuals’ wealth grows, a rising ment or commercial concerns. One African scholar middle class will make demands on government proposed that the security lens can limit a deeper for deeper democratization, transparency, and understanding of African challenges and opportu- accountability. Some participants cited Ethiopia as nities. Most participants agreed that poverty and an expanding economy in a country with relatively inequality were the root causes, or at least signifi- few democratic credentials and some consideration cantly contributed to political instability. was given as to the implications of this type of development model. Many members expressed support for investments A Diverse and Emerging Continent. in higher education as a way to help African coun- Throughout the conference scholars emphasized tries build their capacity to develop. Innovations in that Africa is politically, economically, and cultur- scientific research, building faculties and university ally diverse and that U.S. policies need to reflect facilities, and more scientific collaboration among and recognize this diversity. While popular views of African and American scientists were offered as a the continent are of poverty, disease, and conflict, few areas for possible partnerships. Several mem- it should be noted that seven out of ten of the fast- bers expressed concern with U.S. immigration pol- est growing economies in the world are African. icy and the scarcity of F-1 student visas as a hurdle Seventeen emerging countries have consistently to expanded educational opportunities. been growing at about 5% each year. Most of these are also democratic, demonstrating a strong link between democracy and economic growth. Over Aid, Trade and Business. In considering the the last ten years, there have been significant number of African countries that have posted con- improvements in child mortality and HIV/AIDS sistently positive growth rates, one scholar noted prevalence rates. Democratic governments are the that about 17 have experienced a dramatic turn- norm even while their consolidation is still ongoing. around since the mid-1990s. All but 3 are democra- Technology, especially in the form of cell phone cies. He attributed the turnaround to: new leader- usage and internet access has exploded and presents ship, an explosion in the use of technology, the end new opportunities for economic growth and politi- of the Cold War, and debt relief. cal processes. He argued that much of their progress is due Many participants noted that a goal of U.S. primarily to African leadership but it has been policies should be to build the capacity of African helped by U.S. policies and programs, including governments and provide an enabling environ- debt relief, trade, and health and agriculture pro- ment for the private sector to fuel development. But grams. Debt relief was provided to 30 countries. there was considerable debate centered on whether The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief efforts should be public or led by the private sector. (PEPFAR) has reached nearly 7 million people. Speakers pointed to the need for good governance Malaria deaths are one third lower than just 9 years in the form of transparency, accountability, and ago. Immunizations have quadrupled since 1980. rule of law as well as government policies that Feed the Future, the U.S. food security initiative, support a thriving business environment. On the has reached 9 million households with agriculture governance front, participants discussed the role of and nutrition assistance. The African Growth and corruption as a significant hurdle to development. Opportunity Act (AGOA) has improved trade rela- One scholar argued that more attention needs to tions with a number of countries that qualify for its be paid to improving governance especially around benefits.

2 These successes prompted a number of scholars lack of electrical power, infrastructure, access to to assert the benefits of foreign assistance when finance for small and medium enterprises and the done well, and to suggest a number of ways to make need for better governance in which laws are con- aid more effective. A focus on the capacity needs of sistently enforced and property rights are respected. developing countries as determined by their own The transfer of American technology was discussed development strategies was a key point. This line as a means to both develop business opportunities of reasoning suggests that development tends to and to help build capacity on the continent. occur with the greatest sustainability when there is country ownership of development strategies and Ethiopia. The theme of the conference was devot- when governments are committed and working ed to Sub-Saharan Africa but Ethiopia proved to be in partnership with donor nations. Public-private an interesting venue with its own development and partnerships were also offered as a necessary component, particularly in periods of austerity in which political challenges. The U.S. Ambassador and the international donors are under domestic pressure Ethiopian Foreign Minister spoke on the first day of to scale back assistance budgets. Further, U.S. pro- the conference on U.S. relations with Ethiopia. The grams should be more focused and selective around country is a major regional player with which the effectiveness and efficiency with decisions driven United States has a cooperative relationship despite by evidence produced in evaluation frameworks. disagreements on some issues. Since 1991, Ethiopia Improving flexibility was urged in designing and has been dominated by one political party. An oppo- funding U.S. programs given Congress’s role in sition party won a considerable number of seats in directing foreign assistance funds. 2005 and post-election protests resulted in passage of an anti-terrorist law that has since then limited A number of members turned to the Millennium political space for government critics and journal- Challenge Corporation (MCC) as an agency that ists. A number of activists and reporters have been embodies many of these recommendations. While arrested and convicted under this anti-terrorist law. some members wondered if all U.S. aid should be administered via the MCC, several scholars reflect- The U.S. relationship is built on three pillars ed that the MCC is designed to help countries at a relating to: regional peace and security; democ- certain level of development but that it would not racy, governance, and human rights; and economic work in most countries. Instead, members suggested development and growth. The United States sup- the need for better agency collaboration. ports these pillars through military and economic assistance that averages between $700 million to $1 Members also discussed non-aid options such as increased educational exchanges and changes billion each year. A large part of this assistance is in immigration and trade policies. Many noted the food aid and PEPFAR. There are more than 100 value of U.S. business engagement for development American companies working in Ethiopia, many and as trade partners. One participant pointed out of which are owned by returning Ethiopian expa- that Ethiopian Airlines was created and managed triates. The country is a hub for regional security, by a U.S. airline and is now one of the largest on trade, and commercial activities with the African the continent and a significant Boeing customer. Union’s headquarters located in the capital. However, examples of success were counterbal- Ethiopia’s dominant political party has a Marxist anced by the particular challenges facing greater background that is often reflected in how it governs. business investments. One scholar suggested that At the same time, the government has taken appro- negative perceptions relating to risk are greater than priate steps to revitalize its agricultural productiv- reality particularly for large corporations. Medium- ity and entice private investments. As the country size businesses are more risk averse and have more transitions to middle-income status some observers difficulties entering African markets. expect greater openness in the political space. Conference members discussed barriers to fur- An afternoon visit at two Peace Corps sites in ther growth and private investment, identifying the Ethiopia was highlighted by accompanying vol-

3 unteers. In Ethiopia, the Peace Corps works in strengthening related sectors and helped many the sectors of health, agriculture, and education African states avoid the negative consequences of with 205 volunteers, the third largest of Peace the global economic downturn. On the other hand, Corps programs globally. Members were able to the way in which China invests does not contribute visit with English-language students at the Ambo to capacity building since many of its concessional Addis Katama Primary School and learn about loans are conditioned on the use of Chinese mate- nutrition and rehabilitation services at the Vision rials and labor. Scholars and members suggested Community-Based Rehabilitation Association that African governments need better regulatory health clinic. At the school, members were intro- tools and should more effectively monitor and duced to a number of elementary students who are enforce environmental and labor laws in order to studying English under the direction of a Peace ensure that these investments fit within a country’s Corps volunteer. While elementary school is taught own development strategies. A couple of African in local languages, upper grades are all taught in scholars provided examples of African governments English in the Ethiopian education system. This implementing some limits on these investments, means that students who want to advance their edu- from moratoriums to better management tools. cation must have strong English skills to progress. China also does not condition its assistance on The visit to a local health clinic was highlighted by democracy, anti-corruption, or transparency issues a discussion on the lack of access to wheelchairs, as do most international donors. One scholar sug- prosthetics and other devices that can help people gested that the effect is a privileging of business lead healthier and productive lives. A model garden concerns over human rights, civil liberties and that teaches growing techniques for healthier diets democracy. Chinese companies are either state- was also a component of the clinic. HIV/AIDS owned or state-supported. China often negotiates patients, who need a highly nutritious diet, can use exemptions from local labor and other laws that low-technology strategies for growing food. U.S. companies must follow. It was suggested that the United States needs to help level the playing Global Competition for Africa’s Resources. field by making it easier for American companies One scholar leading this session’s discussion noted to compete. Several members suggested that the the growing interest of China and some Gulf states Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) in the mineral, oil, land and water resources of is well suited to assist U.S. companies, particu- the continent. The theme of the discussion largely larly medium-size enterprises that may not have centered on whether one should see the Chinese as the resources to operate overseas. One participant partners or competitors with American business. noted that OPIC is unable to operate in all coun- Since the late 1990s, China began a renewed surge tries and is barred from working in Ethiopia at in African investments. The press coverage of these Congress’s direction. investments often has alarmist overtones within a zero-sum framework. And while China has received Democracy, Human Rights and Religious the most press attention, scholars observed that Freedom. While one scholar noted that trends in many countries—Gulf states, Russia, Brazil and human rights and democracy have been generally Korea—have also explored African opportunities. positive over the last twenty years, there are also Chinese investments are often overstated. In the autocratic tendencies in a number of countries, energy sector, it was pointed out that many compa- such as Uganda, Cameroon and Zimbabwe. While nies, including Shell, Chevron and BP, have been it may take decades for democratic institutions to on the continent much longer and are continuing be consolidated, worrisome trends were noted with to invest in new oil discoveries. regard to freedom of the press, freedom of assem- One scholar observed that while the Chinese bly, and the security sector. A Freedom House are interested in energy and mineral resources, report was cited that notes democratic setbacks far their investments still can have positive effects by outpacing gains since 2005. Some countries are

4 using counter-terrorism laws to jail and intimidate case for working with legislators and parliaments to journalists. Cases were noted in Ethiopia, Burundi strengthen policy making processes around these and South Sudan. These laws can have a chilling issues. Others suggested that strengthening civil soci- effect on how civil society functions. Part and parcel ety is a powerful check on repressive governments. of limitations on press and assembly is the role of Scholars and members discussed the appropriate security forces to enforce laws. A number of schol- role of U.S. embassies in monitoring human rights, ars noted that repressive government tactics can religious freedoms, and democracy. Working with and have produced societal tensions and increased host governments, it was suggested that embassies anti-government sentiment. should develop strong country-driven strategies and Another scholar pointed out that there is a youth ambassadors should be held accountable for their bulge that is contributing to popular dissatisfaction implementation. with government. The growing number of young people combined with recent and rapid economic development and their easier access to traditional Food Security Challenges in Africa. Two and social media empowers them to counter govern- scholars of global agriculture and food security pre- ment leaders and policies. According to this scholar, sented the conference with the looming challenges the United States can provide the most assistance facing the world, Africa and Ethiopia. Global mar- in shoring up the public sector by strengthening kets have been burdened with food price volatility the rule of law, making institutions transparent and in recent years with spikes rarely returning to their accountable, and creating an environment that is previous levels. There are approximately 1 billion conducive to private enterprise and job creation to people suffering from hunger in the world and absorb the growing number of unemployed youth. this number could increase if production does not keep pace with projected population growth rates The role of technology and social media was expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. Some experts further explored with regard to its effects on gov- estimate that food production will need to increase ernance. One scholar argued that cell phones and by 70% to 100% by then. Reaching those produc- twitter make it virtually impossible for autocrats tion levels will be challenging given the effects of to rule freely and to abuse power. It limits their climate change on crop productivity and growing monopoly of media and provides openings for chal- demand for more protein-rich diets. lengers to contest abusive policies. Agricultural production in Africa has stagnated The debate transitioned to those cases where but it also shows the most potential for increased the economy is thriving even while governments are non-democratic. Rwanda has turned around its productivity. The continent could very well be able economy since its genocide nearly 20 years ago. Life to largely feed itself if certain hurdles are overcome. expectancy has increased by 20 years; its economy Currently Africa produces only one ton per hectare has enjoyed 8% growth rates; corruption rates are of grain on average while the rate in the United low; and it is one of the easiest countries in which to States and Europe is 4 to 5 times that amount. set up a business. On the other side, however, the Eighty percent of Africa’s farmers are small land- Rwandan government is authoritarian with signifi- holders working on less than 2 hectares of land. cant human rights abuses. To be more productive, farmers will need to The appropriate role of the United States in employ sustainable intensification in which exist- promoting both economic growth and American ing land is made more productive through a range values of democratic freedoms was discussed with a of traditional and modern farming techniques. variety of views on how best to alleviate poverty and Increasing the nutritional value of crops is an foster greater respect for human rights. At least one important component. member cautioned not to ignore governance and An expert on agriculture in Ethiopia pointed out human rights and noted that “the termites eventu- how critical the sector is for the overall economy. It ally eat the house.” Some members made a strong accounts for 45% of GDP, 90% of its exports, and

5 85% of employment. The country has 16 diverse Ethiopian Commodity Exchange Visit. A ecological zones that make one-size-fits-all solu- visit to Ethiopia’s Commodity Exchange (ECX) tions difficult. He suggested that Ethiopia is putting underscored the discussion on agriculture and food resources into the availability of better inputs (seeds security. ECX was established in 2008 as a platform and fertilizers), better information especially for for buyers and sellers to address the fundamentals small landholders through extension services, bet- of commodity transactions relating to quality, quan- ter storage to reduce post-harvest loss, and better tity, payment and delivery. Supported with USAID working markets including the country’s commod- Feed the Future funding, the exchange handles ity exchange and financial services. transactions of coffee, sesame, maize, and some One participant reminded the conference of the legumes. Cash crops, such as coffee and sesame, are close association between the U.S. Congress and important sources of income for Ethiopian farmers. Ethiopia. It was 24 years ago that Rep. Mickey Coffee exports account for a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) or about $860 Leland died in a plane crash while attempting to million in 2012, supplying U.S. businesses such deliver food aid to Ethiopian communities. as Starbucks, Whole Foods, and Green Mountain Members discussed various tools for increasing Coffee. Up to 20% of the country’s population African productivity including risk management directly or indirectly depends on coffee production and crop insurance, the value of genetically modi- and trading for their incomes. fied technologies, conservation farming and land The exchange helps to overcome problems fac- tenure, and water resources. Some members raised ing farmers such as inadequate storage facilities, concerns with large agricultural enterprises dislocat- inaccessible markets, inconsistent quality grading, ing local populations even though Ethiopia has a and lack of access to information on the effective- current moratorium on large land leases. ness of inputs. The ECX model is now being used Both scholars pointed to the value of the U.S. by other African nations in establishing their own Feed the Future program of which Ethiopia is a focus commodity exchanges. country. The African Growth and Opportunity Act, which will expire in 2015 unless reauthorized Health Priorities in Africa. Health gains have by Congress, is an appropriate vehicle to help been exceptional in the last decade, largely due to strengthen trade in agricultural products. It cur- programs such as PEPFAR, the President’s Malaria rently does not have a focus on agriculture but Initiative (PMI) and resources focused on maternal members discussed the merits of adding this com- and child health. The bipartisan partnership of ponent in its reauthorization. Congress and the White House on global health Other hurdles include the lack of infrastructure issues was credited for much of the success because that allows food to be easily moved from areas of it kept funding levels consistent and it mobilized surplus to those of deficits. Poor roads and port public opinion around these issues. facilities make it difficult to support regional and The question was posed as to whether or not this international trading of commodities. Scholars and bipartisan partnership will be maintained in order members discussed the value of improving sci- to develop an updated global health agenda around entific capacity in Africa in the form of National a coherent vision. Scholars and members discussed Agricultural Research centers and agricultural uni- the need for a more workable inter-agency collabo- versities. ration strategy that identifies which government Some members expressed concerns with how agencies can contribute and which agency should U.S. food aid is managed with possibly negative con- lead U.S. efforts as represented in its Global Health sequences for local farmers. Others were concerned Initiative (GHI). Some felt that there were too with delays and cost efficiencies in moving U.S. food many “silos” among U.S. health programs and that assistance to areas of humanitarian disaster. greater flexibility is needed in how the U.S. designs

6 and manages programs. There was no consensus ibility and inter-agency collaboration if they are on which U.S. government agency was capable of interested in doing so. Increased training programs leading the GHI with the merits of the Centers for on inter-agency management have helped to some Disease Control, the State Department, the U.S. degree. In the final analysis, ambassadors need to Agency for International Development, and the be in charge in the field. White House discussed as possibilities. The link between health and nutrition was Members raised the issue of U.S. family plan- also explored. One scholar noted that there is not ning activities as one that has not enjoyed bipar- enough work being done among government agen- tisan or consistent support even as there has been cies on the value of nutrition for health. This is growing concern with women’s health issues. One particularly important during the first 1,000 days scholar noted the link among girls’ education, fam- of life when a lack of nutrients can produce lasting ily planning and a reduction in child mortality disabilities. Agriculture can also play a role with rates. Another pointed out that Ethiopia has 35,000 scientific advances in the bio-fortification of food health extension workers mostly working at the items, such as cassava and golden rice. These foods community level who are able to provide informa- have been genetically modified to provide higher tion and interventions. levels of certain vitamins and minerals but are often The spread of disease across borders and reach- opposed by organizations that discredit genetically ing the United States was a theme that underscored modified organisms (GMO) technology. the importance of surveillance systems and in At the conference’s end, members reflected on strengthening African national health systems. The the complexity and challenges of Sub-Saharan United States has pre-positioned some vaccines Africa but also recognized the opportunities for in areas of Africa to respond to disease outbreaks, better relations with the United States, for U.S. such as the worrisome polio outbreak in Somalia. business engagement, and for advances in political With disease outbreaks just a plane ride away from stability and poverty alleviation. Many noted that the United States, members were interested in how the issues raised during the conference were all ones U.S. agencies work to prevent disasters. that Congress would have to consider, particularly One scholar with diplomatic experience argued on upcoming reauthorizations of AGOA, PEPFAR, that U.S. ambassadors have ways to impose flex- and annual appropriations bills.

Sub-Saharan Africa and U.S. Security1

Carol Lancaster, Ph.D. Dean, School of Foreign Service Georgetown University

The role of Sub-Saharan Africa in U.S. security the USSR and, to a lesser extent, China but also concerns worldwide has seldom bulked large. That between the USSR and China, East and West may be about to change, with the recent upheaval Germany, North and South Korea, the Arabs and in Mali a wake-up call for that change. the Israelis—and some said, even between the U.S. and France! A Little History In the early 1960s, the U.S., concerned with the potential for a Communist takeover in the Congo In the early years of African independence in (potentially rich in minerals and strategically located the 1960s and 1970s, the region was regarded as in the center of Africa), became involved in ousting one where former colonial powers had primary Patrice Lumumba and installing Mobutu Sese Seko; responsibility for security issues there, including who, during his 30 years in power, proved to be political stability as well as incursions of communist the poster child of kleptocratic rule that just barely influence. The French remained actively involved kept the country intact but at least—to the relief of in the politics and security concerns of their former Washington—away from communist temptations. colonies; the British somewhat less so. Other former The U.S. also sought to maintain a close relation- colonial powers counted for little in local security ship with Emperor Haile Selassie of Ethiopia during issues. The Belgians proved incapable of engaging the 1960s and early 1970s, given the strategic posi- effectively with their three former colonies—Congo tion of that country (and Moscow’s flirtation with (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo), the Emperor), especially as neighboring Somalia Rwanda and Burundi (transferred to Belgium from leaned towards Moscow. (Selassie was overthrown Germany after World War I). The Italians longed by a communist leaning Haile Mariam Menghistu for a role in Ethiopia and Somalia but proved in 1974 after which the U.S. established closer rela- unwelcome and unable to seize that role. The tions with Somalia as Ethiopia leaned more toward Portuguese withdrew from their African colonies Moscow). (Angola, Mozambique, Guinea Bissau, Sao Tome In the 1970s, another region of Africa became and Principe) in the mid-1970s in the face of chal- worrisome from a Cold War perspective—the for- lenges by independence movements they could not mer resource rich territories of Mozambique and overcome. Angola, both led by left wing governments fac- With independence, Sub-Saharan Africa became ing domestic insurgencies contesting for power a focus of Cold War competition for influence and (and weakening those governments). These were strategic position—not just between the U.S. and in some ways proxy wars with the insurgents in

9 Mozambique supported by the Republic of South al organizations such as the Economic Community Africa (still under apartheid rule) and with Zaire of West African States (ECOWAS) was able to act (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo) help- quickly or effectively enough to stop the advance of ing out insurgents in Angola. the Islamists. Fortunately, France stepped in and With the end of the Cold War, the never-very- drove the insurgents back into the mountains of the large U.S. strategic concerns in Africa greatly north, where they remain, albeit diminished. diminished. One additional security-related con- That Islamic radicals are operating in Sub- cern has also diminished: the ongoing U.S. inter- Saharan Africa is not new. They burst onto the est in securing petroleum imports, especially from African scene in their bombings of U.S. embassies Nigeria—at one time Nigeria supplied just over a in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. But these proved fifth of U.S. oil imports. But these imports are now to be isolated acts. The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) decreasing with rising U.S. production of petroleum gained control of much of Somalia but were driven products. out by the Ethiopian army. In their wake, the youth Other mineral imports from SSA to the U.S. component of the ICU—called Al Shabaab— have also diminished. In general, the security regained considerable control of Somalia and importance of SSA to the U.S. based on imported imposed strict (and often brutal) versions of Sharia raw materials—never large—has declined in recent law. Shabaab has reportedly declared its allegiance years.2 to Al Qaeda. They have now been pushed out of key areas of Somalia by UN-backed African troops. The ICU and Shabaab were early wake-up calls to Security Concerns Today the possibilities of a radical takeover of an African state. But that alarm was not as compelling as the It is the argument of this essay that we now face a incident in Mali. The infrastructure of the state— potentially serious security challenge in Africa that albeit weak in Mali—is not collapsed as it has been could demand considerably more attention from for two decades in Somalia.5 And Somalia is less the U.S. and its allies. This is the threat of Islamic centrally located in Africa (and so is more limited radical insurgent groups seizing control of part in its ability to export a radical ideology) than Mali. or all of one or more of Africa’s weak states and Another potentially dangerous radical group turning them into bases for training and staging is Boko Haram, operating in northeast Nigeria. attacks on other states in Africa and beyond. Its goal is to impose Sharia law on all of (multi- A demonstration of the possibility that a well- religious) Nigeria—Africa’s most populous coun- armed radical group could take over an African try. The Nigerian government seems unable to country was the lesson of the incursion into Mali eliminate this movement—indeed, when it sends earlier this year when the Tuareg-led National its army to confront it, the brutality of the soldiers Movement for the Liberation of Azawad3 in effect to the local populations reportedly produce yet expelled the Malian army from the north of the greater support for Boko Haram in the northeast country. Joining with the Tuaregs was Ansar Din, of the country. While Boko Haram cannot seize an armed group with ties to Al Qaeda in the Islamic control of the Nigerian government, it can (and has Maghreb (AQIM) and the Movement for Oneness been) very disruptive in the north of the country and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO). These two and increased inter-ethnic and religious tension in groups led a successful takeover of northern Mali what has always been Africa’s most dynamic and and then moved south towards Bamako, the capital. fractious country. (Boko Haram is but one of the Had Ansar and MUJAO been successful, they troubling insurgencies in Nigeria; the other is in the could have spread their version of radical Islam Delta region of the south, one of the country’s poor- throughout the region (where there are other radi- est, where much of the petroleum is extracted and cal Islamic groups and large, ‘ungoverned’ spaces) stolen by local groups but, in the view of the many and beyond.4 Neither the Malian army nor region- residents of this area, with little economic benefit to

10 them and a lot of environmental damage—hence Southern Sudan (recently independent with both an almost disabling set of armed militias disrupting oil and water resources and still disputed borders); the production of oil in the region, a problem the within the Central African Republic as a rebel group Nigerian government has been unable to resolve). has upset the sitting government there; in Guinea The two cases of almost-radical Islamic takeovers and Guinea Bissau (and Mali which reportedly of African states and other radical movements pres- may have involved elements of the Malian army) ent another potential threat—linking up among where drug traffickers have created a hub of drug them—(Boko Haram, AQIM and Shabaab)—for transfers from Latin America to European markets; coordinated action. Former United States Africa ongoing tensions between Eritrea, Ethiopia and, on Command (AFRICOM) Commander General occasion, Sudan; and growing piracy in the Gulf of Carter Ham recently remarked that his “biggest Guinea. worry is a growing linkage and network of collabo- Not all the news is bad. A number of states ration and synchronization among them. That, he have emerged from devastating internal conflicts: added, “poses the greatest threat to regional stabil- Liberia, Sierra Leone, the Ivory Coast as well as ity more broadly across Africa, into Europe and the Mozambique and Angola. All of these conflicts United States as well.”6 have had terrible human costs and have demanded The emergence of these radical Islamic organi- humanitarian responses from the U.S. and the zations carry a message for the U.S.: it is possible West. These countries and others emerging from that in coming decades, the key challenges to the conflicts remain especially vulnerable to a resump- U.S. of active and successful terrorist movements tion of conflicts as well. However, the threat of will not be in Afghanistan, Pakistan or the Middle radical Islam, while a subset of problems of insecu- East but in the far more fragile countries of Sub- rity in Africa, is the one that poses the most serious Saharan Africa where radical movements can find potential threats to the security of the U.S. and its not just training and staging areas but may prove allies. able to take over entire states—and create networks of radical groups and regimes—and thereby create What has produced the conditions that make a major security challenge to Africa, Europe and African states vulnerable to seizure by radical the rest of the world. groups? It is important to note here that far from all civil One part of the answer is that these states are conflicts or failing states are related to the activi- ‘weak,’ ‘fragile,’ ‘failing’ or even ‘failed.’ A weak ties of radical Islamic groups. The prolonged and state is typically characterized by a limited ability bloody conflict in the Democratic Republic of the to deliver the basic services throughout its terri- Congo is a result of decades—even centuries—of tory expected from a state by its citizens: security brutal mismanagement and exploitation of the (personal and national), education, health, property Congolese people, first by the Belgians and then by rights and economic progress. These characteris- President Mobuto that left the Congo desperately tics can derive from the incapacity of governments poor, divided and without an effective state infra- (lack of human and material resources) and/or structure. But it did have valuable minerals which, corruption and mismanagement on the part of together with the weakness of the Congolese state, political elites. Many of these states have what is attracted the involvement of neighboring countries known as the ‘resource curse’—attractive mineral, (e.g., Rwanda at present) that had an interest in timber, land and fishery reserves that can relieve extracting minerals while contributing to internal governments of the accountability of collecting violence and incapacity of the state. taxes from their citizens to finance government Other brewing conflicts can be found in the activities. In Africa, there is another element in the Sudan—and within Sudan (Darfur remains fragile ‘resource curse’: valuable resources can attract the and there are ongoing conflicts in Blue Nile State intervention of neighboring countries to steal those and South Kordofan) and between the Sudan and resources or criminal networks to do so as well.

11 Governments are often too weak or too corrupt to It is this combination of weak states—often stop this kind of exploitation. poorly governed (whether democracies or not) Efforts have been made to identify the factors with limited capacities to manage or implement leading to weak states and to rank states according their own programs and policies—in a region of to their relative weaknesses. By most accounts, the considerable poverty and instability, many with a bulk of the weakest states internationally are in Sub- common religious identity; and large numbers of Saharan Africa. Conditions leading to state weak- youth with limited prospects for prosperous lives ness typically include ethnic, religious or regional and numerous and possibly growing radical Islamic fragmentation, poverty, poor governance, human groups that present the principal security challenge rights violations, demographic pressures, group to the U.S. in Sub-Saharan Africa going forward. grievance and others.7 These ranking exercises are useful as possible What is to be done? preconditions but do not tell us much about which What are the implications for U.S. policies states are most vulnerable to threats or seizure by regarding Sub-Saharan Africa of the foregoing radical groups—and these are the ones that should analysis? The obvious answer is for the U.S. to be of most concern to U.S. security planners. Two work towards strengthening weak African states additional factors can help in this regard. The first vulnerable to internal conflict, collapse or seizure by one involves regional conditions. Weak states can radical movements. Easily said; not so easily done. often continue to function if they are not threat- The ‘Iraq’ or ‘Afghan’ option of military occupa- ened by external pressures such as interference by tion and attempts through the expenditure quickly neighboring states directly or through proxy groups; of large amounts of military and economic assis- armed, radical groups from abroad linking up with tance appear to be (a) ineffective and (b) politically radical groups inside weak states; funding from and economically unrealistic in today’s world. Not abroad of radical movements; or civil conflict in only have the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan nearby states that spills over and creates instabilities proven that the U.S. is limited in its abilities to do in vulnerable societies. effective nation and state building in other countries The second factor is ideology. Many policy (notwithstanding the post-World War II experi- makers and analysts have assumed that the age of ences in Japan and Germany),11 but also the much ideology is over.8 But that fails to see radical Islam earlier experiences of U.S. military occupations and (or any radical religious movement) as an ideology state building efforts in the Western Hemisphere that it is—a set of beliefs which explain important (e.g., Nicaragua 1912-1933; Haiti 1915-1934; and elements of reality to which individuals adhere and Cuba 1906-1922)12 all suggest that it is very difficult can motivate them to action—sometimes violent— for one government, even with the best of inten- that is intended to protect or further those beliefs.9 tions and with considerable military and economic Radical Islam provides a lens through which to resources at its disposal, to effectively bring about interpret realities, a set of values to guide behavior significant and sustained changes in political institu- and for some, a justification for action—in many tions, social formations, public capacities and habits cases, against U.S. and Western interests. It is this and the political culture—at least not in any time ideology that unites and motivates individuals from frame that is politically feasible from the point of many countries and across many borders and may view of American politics and the patience of the explain its attraction in particular to restless and dis- American public. contented youth. This element of ideology, poten- If state or nation building are not options, what tially spread across many countries, differentiates remains for the U.S. to do? There are short-run the security threat to the U.S. of radical Islam from and long-run answers to this question, based on such movements as the Lord’s Resistance Army10 one’s interpretations of the root causes of weak which can never have the reach of a more universal- states and radical Islamic movements in Africa. ist ideology or create a threat to U.S. security. The essence of the short-run answer is to (1) help

12 African governments strengthen the capacities and rorism in their respective regions. WARSI focuses effectiveness of their security forces; (b) help African on enhancing rule of law, promoting security sector regional organizations to respond more quickly and reform, and building partner nations’ capacity to effectively to security threats in individual countries; counter transnational threats, including narcotics and (c) ensure that the UK and France in particular trafficking.”13 And under the Africa command, are ready to assist or take the lead in responding to drones are now located and operating in parts of such security threats. France did so in Mali and the Africa to keep an eye on radical groups’ activities. UK did so in Sierra Leone to ensure the sustainabil- These programs, like TSCTP, remain rela- ity of the peace agreement there in the early 1990s. tively small in annual dollar terms; their impact was Should there be more regularized collaboration and unclear from available documents. planning among these countries and the U.S. on The longer-term options confronting the U.S. African security issues? involve addressing the more basic factors feeding the Isn’t AFRICOM one vehicle to achieve some of attractions of radical ideologies in Africa. Among these goals? To some extent it is—but it has yet to those factors is surely access to a sense shared by fulfill the goals of its creators. This newest U.S. mil- many ethnic minorities (e.g., the Tuaregs in Mali) itary combatant command was announced in 2007. of exclusion from national political and economic The roll out of AFRICOM was a disaster—it was life. Perhaps also is the factor of education (beyond done with little prior consultation with Africans or the primary level) for more than a handful of lucky with others—e.g., the U.S. and other development or well-positioned individuals and employment for communities—whose support was important for the youngsters who have benefitted from quality educa- success of the Command. As a result, it provoked tion (and who, presumably, will be the future lead- widespread resistance and suspicion that (a) the ers of their countries). This approach to furthering U.S. was militarizing its engagement in Africa; and education in Africa and elsewhere (e.g., with the (b) that DOD was seizing leadership of U.S. Africa use of foreign assistance) deviates from the tradi- policy—a prospect that made the Department of tional one among development experts who have State and other U.S. government agencies decid- tended over the past several decades to concentrate edly uncomfortable. To address some of these on getting all children in primary school. That is concerns, AFRICOM has a Department of State an understandable policy (where children actually officer as one of its deputy commanders. But the learn in school—and that is a contested outcome damage was done. Initially, African countries were in much of Africa) but probably does not do much reluctant to accept the location of AFRICOM and to diminish the attraction of radical ideologies for its headquarters remain in Stuttgart, Germany. youth with minimal education and few employment AFRICOM, along with the Department of State prospects. and U.S. Agency for International Development It seems quite likely that radicalization in the (USAID), is associated with several U.S. govern- future in Africa will occur mainly in the large and ment programs aimed at potential terrorist activi- growing cities of the region. Is there a combina- ties in vulnerable parts of Africa: Trans-Sahara tion of policies involving education and training Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), Combined as well as jobs that would address the burgeoning Joint Task Force Horn of Africa, the Partnership number of young people in Africa’s urban areas? for Regional East African Counter Terrorism And should not the U.S. government bring all of (PREACT), and the West Africa Regional Initiative its policy instruments to bear not only on helping (WARSI). These programs combine military train- countries susceptible to radical ideologies be able ing and elements of development aid in the coun- to resist the temptations of such ideologies among tries where they operate. The USAID congressio- their own populations but incursions from external nal presentation for 2014 states that “both TSCTP sources of groups fomenting those ideologies—but and PREACT focus on enhancing the capabilities also help those countries facing internal conflicts of partner nations to prevent and respond to ter- (with or without such ideologies involved) or recov-

13 ering from such conflicts because evidence shows institutions have avoided over recent decades. clearly that countries that have endured such con- These approaches are different from those of flicts are very susceptible to their recurrence—and Western governments but not necessarily threaten- these countries can also be the sources of instabilities ing to Western interests. Financial pressures on for entire regions (as well as producing their own governments, like that of the Sudan or Zimbabwe, humanitarian disasters). not popular with the West because of their policies, And if radical Islam is in fact at the core of future have undoubtedly been eased by the Chinese. There security threats to the U.S. from Africa, that would have also been concerns (including by Chinese offi- argue for a greater focus on long-term engagement cials themselves, about corrupt Chinese business- and assistance to countries and communities most men in Africa). But these practices do not constitute vulnerable to those ideologies and the development threats to important U.S. interests. Efforts by the of a comprehensive U.S. strategy to address these USG and other Western governments to engage the threats—a ‘whole of government’ approach. This Chinese in mutually supportive activities in Africa engagement would likely involve a rather differ- are worthwhile and worth continuing. ent distribution of U.S. expertise, personnel and It is quite possible that the Chinese will in time resources than presently exists in SSA. In the best of confront serious resistance to their assistance by times, a greater security focus in U.S. engagement African officials. There have also been criticisms in the region would not call for trade-offs among and occasionally violent incidents aimed at the programs and resource commitments. That this is Chinese based on their practice of bringing their not the best of times in budgetary terms, some dif- entire workforce on projects from China and so, ficult decisions and delicate negotiations could well adding little to the local economy or employment lie ahead. levels. Other criticisms involve rough treatment by Chinese managers of African employees. It is A Final Word—about China in Africa quite possible that eventually the Chinese will learn that ignoring problems of governance and national After four decades of on and off attention to Sub- aspirations of their African partners will create Saharan Africa, the People’s Republic of China higher costs politically and in human terms than the began in the 1990s to engage more broadly and Chinese are willing to bear. actively with governments in Africa. The principle goals of this engagement are three: to gain access It may also prove to be the case that China could to needed raw materials (e.g., minerals and food become a partner in U.S. efforts to contain or elimi- and fiber) necessary for China’s continued growth; nate security threats from radical Islamic groups. increased trade with Africa; and increased political These groups can threaten Chinese interests in influence in the region (with political goals of per- Africa as well as those of the U.S. (though they are suading African countries to vote against Japanese unlikely to use African spaces as staging grounds for membership in the Security Council and non- terrorist attacks in China itself). It is in short impor- recognition of Taiwan as an independent country). tant to engage with the Chinese in Africa and not regard them as either enemies or security threats on It is difficult to estimate the extent of Chinese the continent. financial engagement in Africa since the Chinese do not keep their books the same way most other countries do and do not publish comprehensive data on Endnotes their annual expenditures in Africa.14 Nor do the Chinese condition their support to African govern- 1 This paper focuses primarily on security issues cur- ments on human rights and good governance poli- rently and potentially confronting the United States in Sub-Saharan Africa—by definition, issues that can cies—they take a more ‘hands off’ approach to the affect the well-being of Americans and American allies provision of their aid. Finally, the Chinese support and interests. It recognizes that the U.S. has multiple large infrastructure projects—the types of projects interests in the region—some based on American Western aid-giving governments or international

14 democratic values, human rights and humanitarian are not confined to Islam—they are evident today aspirations for all peoples; others involving economic in all major world religions—Christianity, Judaism, and commercial opportunities. U.S. policies towards Hinduism and even Buddhism (e.g., in Myanmar Sub-Saharan Africa typically reflect a mix of these vari- recently where Buddhist fundamentalists attacked ous interests. Muslims). Furthermore, radical Islamists are by no 2 http://www.agoa.gov/build/groups/public/@agoa_ means representative of a significant percentage of main/documents/webcontent/agoa_main_003964. Muslims or of the traditional and widely embraced pdf interpretations of Islam which at its core involve beliefs based on peace, community and compassion. Indeed, 3 The Tuareg peoples inhabit the north of Mali and many devout Muslims today begin their public presen- have long been a discontented minority in that coun- tations by invoking “…In the name of God, the merci- try, largely living in refugee camps for decades. The ful, the compassionate…” independent, Tuareg country they support is called by them “Azawad.” 10 The Lord’s Resistance Army, led by Joseph Kony, is a small, dispersed armed group in central Africa that 4 There are reports of insurgent attacks near the capital of Niger, a neighbor of Mali by The Movement originated 24 years ago in Uganda. for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (Mujao). See 11 Japan and Germany are arguably sui generis. They were http://www.charismanews.com/world/39901-climate- defeated countries and the U.S. and its allies were fully of-terror-rising-as-islamists-continue-attacking-in-niger in control of rebuilding not only the infrastructure but 5 It is worth noting that “Somaliland,” the former British the political and social institutions of the country, with part in the north of Somalia, has organized itself into a the military and financial resources to back up that functioning state and is seeking recognition as an inde- state-building. These cases were rare occurrences and pendent country separate from the rest of Somalia. provide poor guides to policy-making today involving state building. 6 http://www.africom.mil/Newsroom/Article/10117/ collaborating-extremist-groups-worry-africom-comma. 12 These interventions were intended mainly to protect 7 The best known effort at ranking weak and failing U.S. properties in these countries but they were often states is the Fund for Peace’s Failed States Index. For accompanied by efforts to reform the health sector and the 2013 index and indicators, see http://ffp.statesin- to implement democratic governance. Unfortunately, dex.org/rankings-2013-sortable. The Index finds that the sustainability of these efforts proved limited. of the 35 highest ranked countries in terms of state 13 http://m.state.gov/md185679.htm failure, 20 of them are in Sub-Saharan Africa. 14 Please see my 2007 essay on The Chinese Aid System, 8 This was in effect the argument of Frank Fukuyama in Center for Global Development, http://www.cgdev.org/ his popular book, The End of History. files/13953_file_Chinese_aid.pdf and other CGD 9 To be absolutely clear, radical religious ideologies essays on Chinese aid.

Emerging Africa: The Economic and Political Transformation in Half of Sub-Saharan Africa

Steven Radelet, Ph.D. Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Development Georgetown University

For more than 30 years beginning in the mid- region since the mid-1990s is sharp divergence in 1970s, it seemed that just about all the news out of economic performance and political systems. Some Africa was bad. Newspapers reported endless civil countries are doing better—much better. But others wars, repeated coups, gross misrule, famine, disease, are still stuck with economic stagnation and misrule. and poverty across the continent. In May 2000, The The failure to appreciate these differences—and Economist newsmagazine published a famous cover their implications—is a major stumbling block story dubbing Africa “The Hopeless Continent.” for understanding and working with the countries Even today, many people agree with that sentiment, across the continent. and discount any good news as short-term blips on In Emerging Africa,1 I divide the sub-continent into the screen. The Afro-pessimists are hard to move. four sets of countries: More recently, a new view has emerged that 1. The Emerging Countries, comprising 17 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is in the midst of a renais- countries2—none of them oil exporters—that sance. Africa has turned around, they say, and is have turned the corner economically since enjoying an economic resurgence based on higher the mid-1990s, many of which have also commodity prices. The Afro-optimists are gaining become democracies; ground. 2. The Threshold Countries, including six Both are wrong. countries that are on the verge of a turn- For too long, researchers, the media, politicians, around, but haven’t quite achieved it yet;3 and casual commentators have blended together 3. The Oil Exporters, including nine countries all of the countries of SSA and treated them as a whose economies (and politics) are heav- single entity, sometimes treating them like a single ily determined by oil markets and therefore country. This continent-wide approach might have follow very different dynamics than other made some sense when most of the countries in the countries;4 and, region were heading in the same direction. But it 4. The “Other” Countries, comprising 16 coun- doesn’t make any sense any more. It is not accurate tries that have made little change and remain to say “Sub-Saharan Africa is turning around” or economically stagnate with non-democratic “Sub-Saharan Africa is still stuck” because Sub- leadership.5 Saharan Africa is too complex to be captured by such singular phrases. In this short brief I will focus my attention primarily on the first group. Indeed, the biggest single pattern across the

17 The Emerging Countries of Africa Something deeper is at work. Emerging Africa Seventeen emerging African countries—home points to five fundamental changes underway in to more than 300 million people—have under- these countries. The first two ignited the turnaround gone dramatic changes in economic growth, pov- in the 1990s and helped sustain it over time; the erty reduction, and political accountability since next three took hold later and are helping sustain the mid-1990s. Another six “threshold” countries progress. have seen promising but less dramatic changes. The transformation in these countries has been 1. More democratic and accountable governments. little noticed by the outside world and is too often Africa’s troubles have been, in large part, a fail- overshadowed by negative news from other African ure of leadership. Too many leaders have ruled countries. But the break from the past is clear. by intimidation, violence, and brute force. But in Consider the economic turnaround in the 17 the 1980s, many authoritarian governments lost emerging countries: between 1975 and 1995, their their legitimacy and the economic and financial economic growth per capita was essentially zero. resources to maintain control. Protestors began to But between 1996 and 2010, they achieved growth call for change, and governments lost the backing of averaging 3.2 percent a year per capita, equivalent key supporters. With the end of the Cold War and to overall GDP growth exceeding 5 percent a year. apartheid in the early 1990s, authoritarian leaders That growth has powered a full 50 percent increase were forced to give way to democratic governments. in average incomes in just 15 years. By comparison, The number of democracies in Sub-Saharan Africa the other non-oil exporting countries of the region jumped from just 3 in 1989 to 23 in 2010, including have achieved essentially no growth in incomes over most of the 17 emerging countries. that period. Democracy means not only elections but greater And it is not just growth: trade and investment adherence to basic political and civil rights, more have doubled, school enrollments are rising, and freedom of the press, and stronger political insti- health indicators are improving. The share of tutions. Not all of the emerging countries are people living in poverty has declined from 58 per- democracies, but there has been a clear shift toward cent to 48 percent. Democracy, while still flawed, greater political accountability and improved gover- has become the norm rather than the exception. nance more broadly. Democratic progress has been Governance has slowly but steadily improved. To uneven and remains incomplete, but it has been— be sure, these countries are far from perfect. They and will continue to be—at the core of emerging face many challenges, and their continued success is Africa’s renaissance. far from certain. But deep changes are taking place in the emerging countries, and their future prospects 2. More sensible economic policies. look bright. Twenty years ago, nearly all African economies were effectively bankrupt, with large budget deficits, Five Fundamental Changes double-digit inflation, growing debt burdens, thriving The turnaround in emerging Africa is neither black markets, shortages of basic commodities, and temporary nor simply the result of favorable com- rising poverty. Economic mismanagement and the modity prices. While commodity prices have helped heavy hand of the state scared off investors, provoked sustain growth in some countries in recent years, capital flight, and led to stagnation and rising pover- commodity prices were working against them when ty. In the late 1980s, the emerging countries began to they started their growth turnaround in the late implement much stronger economic policies. Today, 1990s. The growth revival persisted through the black markets are but a distant memory. Budget and global recession of the late 1990s, and these coun- trade deficits are more sustainable. The role of the tries weathered the 2009 global economic crisis bet- state is smaller, the business environment is friendlier, ter than most developing countries. and trade and investment barriers are lower.

18 3. The end of the debt crisis and major changes in relation- 5. A new generation of policymakers, activists, and business ships with the international community. leaders. The 1980s debt crisis hit Africa particularly A new generation of savvy, sharp, and entrepre- hard. Stagnant economies and heavy borrowing neurial leaders is emerging across Africa. They are created huge debt burdens. As the crisis deepened, rising through the ranks of government, starting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) took on a up businesses, working as local representatives of much more prominent role, and IMF–World Bank multinational corporations, leading local nongov- “stabilization and structural adjustment” programs ernmental organizations and activist groups, and became central to economic policymaking and the taking an increasing role in political leadership. relationship between African countries and the They are fed up with the unaccountable govern- donor community. Some middle-income countries ments and economic stagnation of the past and are began to resolve their debt problems in the early bringing new ideas and new vision, often fortified 1990s, but it took another decade or more for by travel abroad and a globalized outlook. With the low-income countries to get out from under their new generation at the helm, Africa’s future looks debt burdens through the Heavily Indebted Poor increasingly bright. Country (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). Of the 40 countries The Road Ahead eligible for the HIPC program, 36 have received at The five changes described above provide the least the first stage of HIPC debt relief. foundation for continued success in the emerging Today, the debt crisis is finally winding down. countries, but the turnaround is young and remains Debt burdens are significantly lower, freeing up fragile. The emerging countries face several chal- financial resources and relieving the time burden lenges, including the need to deepen democracy on senior policymakers. But perhaps even more and strengthen governance, diversify their econo- important, relationships with donors have become mies to create new economic opportunities for a much healthier. Country-led Poverty Reduction growing workforce, manage the role of China and Strategies have replaced structural adjustment pro- other emerging actors to ensure that the benefits grams at the center of policymaking, providing a outweigh the risks, adapt to the effects of climate stronger basis for donor support to bolster future change, and build strong education and health development going forward. systems. Unleashing the power of girls and women will be central to maximizing the speed, equity, and sustainability of development. 4. New technologies that are creating new opportunities for business and political accountability. Meeting these challenges will not be easy. It will require difficult choices, effective leadership, and Cell phones are becoming ubiquitous across hard work by the citizens of the emerging countries. Africa, and Internet access is growing quickly. In Their future is primarily in their own hands: the the most remote corners of the countryside, cell decisions they make, the priorities they set, and the phones are relaying information on prices and institutions they establish. Their record since the shipments of goods in real time and facilitating the mid-1990s has been strong, and there is great prom- transfer of funds with simple text messages. The ise for the future, but it is hardly certain. Internet is opening new economic opportunities and creating jobs that did not exist before, such as data entry and other services. And both are widening Implications for the United States political involvement by enabling the debate and There are three main reasons why developments flow of information that are the backbone of politi- in SSA matter for the United States: cal accountability and transparency. 1. Strengthening National Security. Weak, failed, and failing states create opportuni-

19 ties for transnational criminals and terrorist late, facilitate, and leverage private invest- organizations. As countries in SSA become ment. One way is through creative risk-shar- economically and politically stronger, these ing or co-investing, such as through partial threats are reduced within their countries, in guarantees to local banks for new loans, or the region, and to the United States and the through expanding the operations of the U.S. rest of the world. Agency for International Development credit 2. Promoting American Values of authority, the Overseas Private Investment Openness, Prosperity, Freedom, and Corporation and the Export-Import Bank Democracy. The United States must lead in SSA. Another is to work with investors to in promoting its vision for a more prosperous encourage stronger supply change linkages, and democratic world—a vision shared by such as helping improve the quality of local most people around the world. Unfortunately, supplies to make foreign investment more many people in low-income countries see profitable. And a third is to work with gov- economic opportunity, escape from poverty ernments and investors to identify roadblocks and political freedom only as distant dreams. and obstacles to investment. The United States needs poor countries as 2. Make Bigger Distinctions Among Partner well as rich countries to support the values Countries. In an increasingly divergent we champion, and to believe that they, too, developing world, one-size-fits-all approach- can climb out of poverty and achieve eco- es no longer make sense. Partnerships should nomic and political freedom. It is directly in be much better tailored to the conditions on the U.S. national interest to help low-income the ground and the progress and commit- countries achieve rapid economic growth ments that countries are making. The new and strengthen democracy. And for most emerging democracies of SSA have shown Americans, helping the people of some of they are willing to make the tough decisions the poorest countries of the world succeed in to put their countries on a new path forward, building their economies, strengthening their and they deserve strong support. These political systems, and meeting the basic needs countries should receive larger and longer- of their people is simply the right thing to do. term commitments and have greater say in 3. Enhancing Business Opportunities. where funds are directed. By contrast, the American companies are increasingly look- countries that have not made these changes ing for new global business opportunities, should receive smaller commitments and less and the countries of SSA provide new and flexibility in how funds are used. expanding frontiers. Opportunities are grow- 3. Continue to Invest in Health and ing in power, agriculture, construction, man- Education. In the long run, a country’s ufacturing, hotels, tourism, and a wide vari- capabilities, capacities, and progress depend ety of other activities. Investors from China, significantly on its investments in people. India, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, The United States leads the way in investing and a variety of other countries are moving in health, especially fighting HIV/AIDS and fast, and so far U.S. investors have been less malaria, and also makes important invest- active. ments in education. 4. Invest in Technology. It is impossible to see So what can the United States do? how the emerging countries of SSA can meet 1. Develop innovative ways to work with the challenges of widespread disease, climate the private sector and encourage private change, and pressure on food supplies except investment. Instead of seeing foreign invest- through the development and dissemination ment solely as a substitute for missing private of new technologies. Aid agencies have a capital, increasingly it can be used to stimu- long history of such investments, includ-

20 ing the seeds and fertilizers of the Green ity, and the U.S. helped build and restock Revolution, Oral Rehydration Therapy, and equipment and supplies. As a result of this more recently for vaccines for meningitis A cooperation the facility is now able to effec- and other diseases. Meeting new challenges tively serve the local population. will require forging creative relationships Africa’s emerging countries will undoubtedly with universities, foundations, businesses, face challenges, but they have shown that nations and local entrepreneurs, with new kinds of once considered failures can turn around and climb supporting mechanisms. It will require a out of poverty. The renaissance in emerging Africa willingness to take risks and provide support, provides hope for some of the most challenged even when some investments fail. countries in the world that it is possible to combat 5. Create Trading Opportunities at Home. poverty, secure peace, increase prosperity, and The U.S. is an important trading destination widen the global circle of development. for the countries of SSA, although they are increasingly looking to other countries to forge new relationships. Expanding programs Endnotes like the African Growth and Opportunity 1 Steven Radelet (2010). Emerging Africa: How 17 Countries Act and reducing barriers created by agricul- Are Leading The Way (Washington: Center for Global tural subsidies and tariffs on finished prod- Development). ucts can help encourage new investment and expanded economic opportunities for the 2 The 17 emerging countries are: Botswana, Burkina countries of SSA. Faso, Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Ghana, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, São Tomé 6. Work More Closely with Other New and Principe, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Development Partners. New investors Uganda and Zambia. from China and India provide new competition, but also new opportunities to work 3 The six threshold countries are: Benin, Liberia, Kenya, together with local governments to solve Malawi, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. problems of mutual interest. These new 4 The nine oil exporting countries are: Angola, partners bring skills, new perspectives, expe- Cameroon, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial riences, ideas, and funding, and sometimes Guinea, Gabon, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Sudan. working together can bring huge benefits. 5 These non-oil exporting countries are: Burundi, In Liberia, for example, the U.S. and China Central African Republic, Comoros, Democratic worked closely together with the Liberian Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Eritrea, government on rehabilitating a hospital—the The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Chinese rebuilt the road leading to the facil- Niger, Somalia, Swaziland, Togo, and Zimbabwe.

Food Security for Africa in the 21st Century: The Role of Science, Trade and Business

Gebisa Ejeta, Ph.D. Distinguished Professor of Plant Breeding and Genetics and International Agriculture Purdue University

Introduction nomic opportunities, but also resulting in increas- Global food security has become a serious agenda ing pressure on our global land use and resource for humanity in the 21st century. We have entered a utilization. new era with concerns of feeding future generations We also recognize the additional dimensions of sustainably. The concern is driven by a steadily some of these changes. The recognition that hunger growing world population, currently projected to taking place in the far fringes of the world can cause stabilize at about 9 billion in 2050, the need for a an increasing demand in agriculture for food, feed, concomitant increase in global food production to and energy at home, resulting in an eerie emer- support the rapid growth in human population, as gence of a rare sense of food insecurity even in the well as the increasing recognition of the fragility of western world. our ecosystems and the enhanced need for greater It has now been made abundantly clear that pop- stewardship of our natural resource systems. ulation growth, lack of employment, and poverty It is shocking to some that a world of plenty of are aligned with hunger and political instability, as resources is challenged with supplying nutritious evidenced with the many riots in several countries food to a rapidly-growing global population. The in recent years that were linked to price spikes in recognition that there is an uneven distribution food commodities. of natural resources and other key materials for economic growth, such as land, labor, knowledge, Coupled with the imminent threat from climate and capital, and the implications of these shortages change, a looming global water crisis, and serious on our ability to feed the world and sustain global concerns about the growing demand for and deple- economic growth, is not widely felt. tion of non-renewable energy sources (in spite of We are aware that science, technology, and the the excitement that new technologies have recently commercial infrastructure that were laid out in the generated), we are left with only one choice. We 20th century have changed the way we produce and have to opt for sharpening our focus, restoring our use food, the way we take care of our health, the commitment to science and technology and the way we travel and communicate with each other; power of trade and business, and strengthening our and that the spread of this knowledge has literally public and private institutions with a 21st century shrunk the world into a small global village with vision and infrastructure to enhance our mitigation changed lifestyles and diets—adding greater eco- and adaptation capabilities.

23 These are serious challenges indeed. But as business to his own people, figured out a imminent as these dangers are, I believe we can rise way to take his own scientific discoveries to to the challenges and meet them head-on, provided the fight against hunger in Asia and Latin that there is the political will to galvanize the great America in the now famous Green Revolution opportunity that our vision, our creativity, and that is known to have fed and saved billions of our sciences can offer to grow our economies and people since. address the issues of food, agriculture, and natu- c) In the 1980s, building on the discoveries of the ral resource conservation and management in a double-helix structure of the DNA, American responsible and holistic way. scientists made a new discovery, made possible There is little doubt that science, business, inter- through ground-breaking molecular research, national trade, and effective policies will play key the advent of the science of biotechnology and roles in addressing global food security effectively the creation of genetically modified organ- and catalyze Africa’s emergence and Africa’s flour- isms (GMOs) through the transfer of single ish as the new and dynamic frontier in the global genes from other sources including simple economy. (single cell) organisms to complex (higher Both the developed and developing nations are level) organisms, such as crop plant cultivars, in this together, sharing the responsibility of tapping endowing them with favorable traits of disease into the resources of our shared planet for sustain- or insect resistance, and/or traits that add ing a prosperous global economy and sustaining nutritional value. these opportunities for future generations. With these three remarkable agricultural revolutions, the United States thrust itself as a global lead- America’s Leadership and Example er in advancing science, technology, and innovation to spur economic development for its people and, as The United States is widely recognized as the it turned out, for other nations as well. global leader in agricultural sciences and in advancing global economic development through agri- Fundamental to these successes is America’s culture. In the 20th century, U.S. leadership was early vision and commitment to building functional institutions, and its unshaking position to providing responsible for the three most important agricul- the right policy environments for innovating agri- tural revolutions that brought about transforma- cultural industries. tive changes in global economic development, improved human livelihoods, as well as global nutri- The United States, today, is the undisputed tion and health. global leader of successful agricultural enterprises through the legacy of science and technology work a) In the 1930s, scientific discoveries made at that stream out of its many universities and research U.S. universities in the new science of genet- institutions, and the innovations that continue to ics, created the hybrid-corn technology that emanate out of its agricultural and food business was followed by the ingenuity and innova- communities. tion of American rural communities, which The American experience is a compelling story spurred the development of an agro-industry on the power of science, trade, and business to complex, creating jobs and opportunities for achieve food security and to advance economic millions of people and changing the face of development. America has the comparative advan- rural America once and for all. tage and the capacity to continue to offer global b) In the 1960s, Norman Borlaug, a young leadership in global development for decades ahead. American scientist who grew up in the rural This American formula of science, technol- Midwest during the depression era witnessing ogy, and innovation—suffused in the right policy the exciting opportunities and impact brought environment as the basis of creating agricultural about by science, technology, innovation and business enterprises that create employment, grow

24 local economies, and offer a steady supply of food human capacity of poor nations, strengthening their for consumers—has succeeded everywhere it has public institutions, influencing local governance been given a chance; certainly in Europe and the and encouraging them to place the right policy Pacific, as well as, more recently, in the emerging environments in their own nations. economies. I recognize that this is a tall order. It may take America’s contribution to spreading its proven time and serious effort, and require greater com- approach of science-based economic development mitment to change stubborn traditions and corrupt in agriculture was not limited to just setting an political systems of many of these nations. But with example; it also included providing technical assis- a growing recognition, and the sense of urgency tance and rallying necessary resources in support of, created by the changing realities of the new global and in sustaining, the agricultural and food systems economic order and the ensuing competition for of the world. resources, there may be a new window of opportu- As a product of the American educational sys- nity for a concerted effort. tem, I can attest that this great success story and America does not have to do it alone, but in part- the legacy of American leadership in agricultural nerships with governments and other organizations revolutions is embedded in the magical formula of in both the rich and poor nations, such as what is public-private partnerships that was first discovered underway in the New Partnership for Food Security in the United States of America. and Nutrition recently advanced by the G8 (forum It started with a series of brilliant early laws that of eight of the world’s largest economies: Canada, established the U.S. Land Grant University system, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United with its tripartite functions of educating young Kingdom and the United States). men and woman from rural America at public col- Development assistance has proven to be the leges, establishment of the Agricultural Experiment Stations and the Cooperative Extension Services, most effective way to reduce food security chal- and perhaps as importantly, the recognition for the lenges. When implemented well, development assis- ingenuity of businesses to exploit scientific discover- tance increases food production, improves nutri- ies from public institutions toward building employ- tion, sparks economic development, reduces pov- ment and wealth, as well as economic opportunities erty, creates social stability, and it can also be good for local communities. for the global natural environment. The U.S. farm sector produces five times as The Challenge for America many crop and livestock products today, in the dawn of the 21st century, as it did at the turn of The challenge for America today is whether it the last century, just before the miracles of science, can continue to play this role again, and again. technology, and innovation were beginning to America has done this in the past, so it is only impact the economies and livelihoods of Americans. reasonable to believe that it can do it again in the last frontiers of Africa and Southeast Asia. Science- American assistance in building public institu- based economic development can work its miracle tions in developing countries, such as universities, one more time, lifting millions of smallholder farm- research organizations, regulatory agencies, as well ers in poor nations out of the misery and drudgery as the greater governance and policy arena, has that have shackled them for centuries. been universally successful in Africa, Asia, and in I hope that Americans will realize that their Latin America. nation can do it again. America can be the center of As past American investments have generated the next major scientific discovery, and be a game- so much opportunity for all, paying great dividends changer with its next technology and innovation. for America as well as for recipient nations, it is rea- America can also assist other nations, not through sonable to project that today’s investments will also handouts but hand-ups, through helping build the have far-reaching benefits for all in the near future.

25 The Power of Markets and Trade Public-Private Partnership Foreign direct investments, in resource as well We need to recognize that the challenges of meet- as in intellectual capital, and overall private-sector ing current and future food demands have grown to engagement in building hopes and opportunities, be infinitely more complex. The challenge of global are key to establishing real change and growth that food security demands that, as people, we learn to is likely to be more enduring and permanent. produce more food with less land and water, and It should perhaps be made clear that the call adopt prudent use of modern agricultural inputs, for America’s renewed leadership in advancing mitigating the growing weather variability and the the power of science, trade and business for global threatening agenda of the global climate challenge. development is an avenue of enlightened self-inter- Public investments in agricultural sciences should est for the United States as well. be increased to supplement the steady growth in In assisting poor nations to spur their agricultural the private sector. The science and business of agri- growth and develop their economies, America helps culture and food should receive the incentives and itself as well. It has been demonstrated that some of resources needed for deployment of existing tools of the fastest growing economies of the world are in modern agricultural sciences, as well as new invest- Southeast Asia and in Africa. Agriculture is the larg- ments and more funding for research to generate est sector of the economies of many of these nations, more powerful tools such as advanced biotechnol- and the most important vocation and livelihood for ogy to address the more intractable problems of 70-80% of the population of many of these nations. agriculture and food systems. As incomes grow, some of these economies raise These investments are essential to increase pro- their capacity as consumers of foreign products, duction, enhance nutrition and utilization, reduce providing new trade and investment opportunities food loss, improve storage and transportation, for the United States; a vision and goal not lost to as well as devise new processing and distribution many U.S. companies that have turned their atten- systems to encourage trade, business, and overall tion to Africa in the last few years. growth of entrepreneurial capacity in the new frontiers for commercial agriculture. In providing poor nations with the tools and skill set needed to get them on the path of prosperity To enhance the value and benefit from these through science, trade and business, the United investments, the complexities around global trade States would also create more American jobs, that work against poor developing nations should expand trade and investment, grow markets, and be relieved so as not to prevent these nations from increase U.S. influence globally, particularly in the advancing their economic growth and reducing new frontiers of Africa and Southeast Asia, which their food insecurity. are going to become increasingly important strate- Poor developing nations of the world are gener- gically in the not-too-distant future. ally not exporters of food, as they lack basic human Thanks to American leadership, it has been dem- capital, physical infrastructure such as storage and onstrated in many nations that modern agricultural transportation, and harmonized regulatory sys- science, when combined with the power of trade and tems—or they have government regulations or business, can generate dramatic increases in agricul- protectionist policies that discourage regional and tural productivity, meet the growing future demand global trade opportunities for many poor African for global food supply, increase profitability, and nations. catalyze growth in regional and global economies. The challenges of feeding a growing world popu- The challenge of growth in agricultural business lation are huge. To feed the world, we will need should include learning from the past, avoiding to earnestly encourage the effective engagement complacency, and sustaining focus on meeting both of smallholder farmers as well as large commercial current needs and future demands for food, feed, enterprises. and fiber. We will need smart investments and partnerships

26 from poor and rich nations that advance the science not been able to scale up existing scientific tech- and technology necessary to address the growing nologies to meet the challenges in national and complexity around the biophysical challenges and regional food security. shocks brought about by climate change. I am an agricultural scientist, and believe that Strategic public-private partnerships that take I know what is needed to develop Africa’s agricul- local realities of the developing countries into tural economy. There are so many issues to address, account will be badly needed. Meeting the future however. Key, basic interventions in science, tech- global demand of food and preserving the natural nology, and innovations, coupled with markets and resources for the future generation would require businesses that encourage the so-called value chains smallholder farmers in poor nations not only to feed of improved seeds, fertilizers, irrigation, finance, themselves, but also as major contributors in the agronomic and animal husbandry practices, and charge of feeding the world. access to services, property rights, and ownership of Trade and businesses are critical for growth land by all, particularly by women and the youth, of agriculture, as they generate a demand for are badly needed. The urgency to address these increased production derived from the investments issues needs to be felt. in science, technology, and innovation. An Africa that is not ready to address these Trade and business create the markets for agri- issues to meet today’s food production and natu- cultural inputs, as they do for the produce generated ral resource challenges with conventional sciences from farm commodities, as well as the end products would be in real danger with climate change and that emerge from the extended value chains of the the ensuing heat, moisture, pest and disease stresses production and processing systems that have been that would likely require advanced biotechnology, put in place. and other physical sciences to meet these challenges. Since the recent (2007-2008) food price spike It should be recognized that the emerging chal- that awakened the whole world from its compla- lenges make these problems very complex. These cency in believing that it can feed the world on food are not simple nuts to crack, and it will take time produced in a few pockets of remarkable success, to effectively address them. There is urgency for major commodities have continued to show trends increased commitment to the sciences of agricul- of sharp increases in prices, pinching the pockets of ture, health, and natural resource conservation and the poor all over the world. management, building the necessary human and institutional infrastructure today and now, and not The greater concerns have been in developing after the problems have worsened and gotten out countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, of hand. because these nations badly need science and technology, but they do not possess the capacity to Most fundamental to nations seeking food secu- access and adapt them. rity is building local human and institutional capacity in all spheres of their economy. Africa needs to rapidly build its human capacity, its scientific Africa: The New Frontier infrastructure, and its public and private institu- Focusing on Africa, this continent needs to rec- tions, including the institutions of governance and ognize that, like the nations of the developed world, policy. It needs to invest its own meager resources, it too cannot meet the grand challenges of food as well as aggressively pursue technical assistance security and economic development without the from friendly nations. powers of science and technology, trade and busi- I am a product of the Technical Assistance ness, in the right policy environment. program, with most of my educational programs Because of the lack of human and institutional supported by the United States government, I and capacity, and political will and leadership that has know fully well what education and knowledge can not always been exercised with alacrity, Africa has do for a person, a family, and a nation. Africa needs

27 to turn to the power of education, science, trade and opment to transform its agriculture and build its business to address the triad of the continent’s most economy without significant external assistance. I persistent enemies of illiteracy, hunger, and disease, am even more certain, however, that no amount and commit its due attention to growing economic of external funding will bring about transformative opportunities for its people. There is no substitute. change in Africa’s economy, unless it is locally-led Africa will need assistance from other nations by an inspired citizenry and driven by an unequivo- and development organizations. Africa may not cal support and commitment from African leaders be able to make the essential science-based devel- and policy makers.

28 Competition for Africa’s Natural Resources: Who Wins?

Jennifer Cooke Director, Africa Program Center for Strategic and International Studies

Global competition for Africa’s rich natural can afford to be more assertive and selective in their partner- resource base, long dominated by Western commer- ships. There is no question that Africa has become a cial interests, has expanded dramatically in the last more competitive environment in commercial and 15 years, with a host of new players seeking oil, min- diplomatic terms, and relative U.S. influence with erals, and other commodities to fuel their growing African governments is less than it was 15 or 20 economies. An array of emerging economic pow- years ago. This should not be surprising in a region ers has entered the fray—Malaysia, India, Brazil, where opportunities for investment and trade are Korea, and Turkey among them. China, through growing, where governments are becoming more the sheer scale and rapidity of its expansion, has strategic in pursuit of economic interests, and generated the most profile and reaction, both within where domestic African constituencies are gener- Africa and the West. ally more powerful vectors of change and reform In the United States, China’s assertive mix of than any external actor can be. Africa’s changing economic engagement and commercial diplomacy landscape calls for new forms of U.S. engagement, spurred fears that Western “values” and interests in but U.S. policymakers should not exaggerate the Africa would be undermined by China, that China threat that China poses to U.S. interests, nor frame would “gobble up” Africa’s resource base, and that U.S. engagement in Africa as counter to China or the U.S. and China were locked on a course to stra- other investors. Ultimately competition for African tegic confrontation. Some of the hyperbole around resources and commercial opportunities, if well the threat of Chinese engagement and the scramble managed by African leaders, will be a boon to for African resources has abated. But there is still a Africa and will challenge external partners—the common narrative in Washington policy circles—as United States, China, and others—to update their evidenced in media coverage of President Obama’s assumptions and their approaches to Africa to July 2013 Africa trip—that the United States and remain relevant and attractive to the up-and-com- the West are losing ground to Chinese firms, that ing generation. the U.S. has walked away from Africa as other play- Demand for African resources has had a transforma- ers are stepping in, and that China is monopolizing tive effect on Africa’s economic outlook and has opened new African resource opportunities. opportunities for investment. External demand for the In discussing U.S. interests vis à vis China, other continent’s resources has been the major driver investors, and the “scramble” for African resources, of Africa’s sustained growth surge over the last a few points are worth bearing in mind. decade. Persistent high demand from China and other Asian players allowed most African states to Africa’s landscape is changing and African governments

29 emerge from the global economic crisis of 2009 rela- services; and the large commodity traders, which tively unscathed. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy move oil to China, are largely European. In the has more than tripled since 2000 to some $1.33 mining sector, where China has invested heavily, trillion, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not Chinese companies, but multinational giants predicts continued growth of 5.4 and 5.8 in 2013 such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Glencore Xtrata, and 2014 respectively. The current commodity and ENRC remain the heavy hitters. surge has been accompanied in many cases by more African governments will determine whether the continent’s savvy economic management and technological natural resources are a blessing or a curse. Whatever the advances that speed transactions and lower costs. It intentions or practices of external investors, African has helped drive an expansion in banking, telecom- governments are ultimately responsible for maxi- munications, and construction and has accelerated mizing the benefits accruing from their countries’ the rise of an African consumer base that is opening natural resource endowments. opportunities in retail and small-scale local manu- First, African governments need to set and facturing. As these trends gain traction and momen- enforce the terms of engagement with external tum, it is not insatiable appetite for resources, but investors. A number of African countries are tak- a slowdown in Chinese demand that will test how ing a more strategic look at the costs and benefits qualitatively different the current growth trajectory of relations with big commercial partners. African will be from commodity booms of the past. The workers and civil-society groups have pushed back onus will fall on African governments to ensure that on poor labor relations, lax worker safety standards, the current boom is managed to support sustained, and inadequate environmental protection measures inclusive growth. by external investors. Increasingly, African govern- U.S. and Western firms are not out of the picture and in ments have pressed for more equitable trade pat- fact remain the major players in Africa’s most lucrative extrac- terns with China and other partners, for greater tive industries. Western companies remain the domi- local beneficiation of raw materials, increasingly nant players in African mineral and energy produc- stringent local content regulations, and adherence tion, even as China’s investments and imports grow. to tax and environmental codes. Long-term land China came late to the energy game in Africa; and acquisitions in Africa (“land grabbing”) are drawing international oil companies, with massive asset scrutiny—and controversy, and the costs and ben- bases, reserves that dwarf China’s holdings in efits of such deals are not always transparent or fully Africa, and major technological advantages, retain understood. The African Union has adopted a set an almost insurmountable lead over China’s state- of continental guidelines on best practices, but this owned oil companies, particularly in deep water is an area that warrants greater analysis and focus finds where the greatest development potential by African governments, African opinion leaders lies. China scholar Peter Nolan points out that in (like the African Progress Panel – see below) and the Angola, where China has made a concerted effort to international community. increase its oil assets, of 10 mega-projects slated to be Second, African governments must take steps to completed by 2015, Chevron is the leader on four; eliminate incentives and opportunities for corrup- BP on three; Total on two; and ExxonMobil on one. tion and mismanagement and strengthen mecha- China is not on the list. In Nigeria, of similar mega- nisms of oversight and accountability. The govern- projects, Shell is the lead on four; ExxonMobil on ment of Ghana, for example, publishes quarterly two, and Chevron, Total, and Repsol on one each.1 disclosures of petroleum production and payment. New oil finds in Ghana, Uganda, and Sierra Leone Liberia has made adherence to the voluntary and natural gas finds off the East Coast of Africa Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative prin- have been led by smaller western independents like ciples a legal requirement. Guinea and Liberia have Anadarko, Tullow, Cobalt, and Ophir; western committed to posting all mining contracts online engineering companies like Baker Hughes and KBR for public scrutiny. In instances where political will remain predominant in energy infrastructure and is lacking, collective pressure and standard setting

30 by other African government or regional organiza- es of the U.S. private sector can serve U.S. commer- tions may strengthen constituencies for reform. The cial interests and also spur economic growth and Africa Progress Panel, chaired by former Secretary- development in Africa. The U.S. has generally shied General of the United Nations Kofi Annan, has away from overt commercial diplomacy in Africa, brought much needed high-profile attention to the downplaying hard economic interests in its rheto- massive losses to African economies and citizens ric and assistance outreach. This squeamishness is from government undervaluation of assets, secret subsiding, as the development benefits of invest- deals, and mismanagement in the oil, gas, and ment are increasingly acknowledged in traditional mineral industries. The report singled out five min- development circles and among African publics. eral deals contracted in the Democratic Republic The U.S. government can help facilitate entry by of Congo between 2010 and 2012, and concluded a broader swath of the U.S. private sector, beyond that total losses from the five deals reviewed were the corporate giants and extractives, education “equivalent to more than double the combined annual budget for health and education in 2012.” on the opportunities and offering greater support to mitigate risk and uncertainty. The president’s Finally, to be ultimately successful, African gov- July trip was a much needed boost to this aspect of ernments will need to ensure that gains from U.S. engagement, and the Power Africa initiative a natural resource flows are reinvested in sectors and services—infrastructure, power generation, agri- promising opportunity for further expansion. culture, education, institutional capacity—that will But as the U.S. steps up its commercial game in ultimately drive long-term growth, employment, Africa, it should also help African governments step and inclusive development. up their capacity to manage. If the U.S. bolsters its Africa’s partners can support better management of natural economic engagement in Africa, it will also want to resources. ensure that the current commodity super-cycle gen- The United States has fairly stringent rules guid- erates longer-term opportunities, sustained growth, ing U.S. companies’ engagement, including the and an expanding market base. The Millennium Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, Dodd-Frank, and the Challenge Corporation, Power Africa and similar Foreign Account Transparency Act. The UK and programs can help African governments overcome other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and long-standing barriers to investment. Technical Development (OECD) countries have similar mod- assistance and training can focus on strengthening els. International efforts on the lines of the Extractive mechanisms of oversight and accountability in natu- Industries Transparency Initiative and the Kimberly ral resource management, including legislatures, Process, as well as efforts to improve global trans- regulatory and tax agencies, and civil society watch- parency and exchange of information to prevent dogs. The U.S. should encourage African regional tax evasion and aggressive avoidance—an initiative bodies and efforts to set norms and standards for that the UK has promoted in its leadership of the global investors, environmental stewardship, natu- G-8—all warrant exploration. Emerging economies ral resource management, and transparency. And and Africa’s newer investment partners should also it should work with global partners, both traditional be engaged, if possible in these debates, and active G-8 partners and the emerging economic powers, African buy-in and support will be critical. to strengthen global norms in transparency and What does Africa’s commodity boom and increased com- responsible investment. petition mean for the United States? First, the U.S. can get more skin in the game by bolstering U.S.-Africa economic and commercial 1 Peter Nolan, Is China Buying the World? Polity Press, Malden, engagement. Harnessing the capacities and resourc- Mass., 2012

Democracy and Human Rights in Africa

Sarah Margon1 Acting Washington Director Human Rights Watch

The Arab Spring has been a forceful reminder to have stymied reform, crippled development, and the international community that good governance institutionalized a culture of impunity and human and human rights are more than just aspirational rights violations. goals—they are the fundamental basis of societies The Arab Spring—with all its successes and fail- to which even those living under the most authori- ures—offers some important guidance for African tarian rulers seek access. As the last few years have nations undergoing political transitions as well as shown, no region—and no country—is immune for Africans seeking meaningful change. Ultimately, from reform. Even countries that long appeared creating effective governance institutions, indepen- resistant to change can see entrenched leaders dent judiciaries, and disciplined security forces won’t removed while political reform, however tricky, happen overnight. But the steps senior government takes root. While the Arab Spring has its roots in leaders take to bring them into existence are impor- North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has felt corre- tant indications of the intent to uphold the rule of sponding tremors. Many leaders are cognizant of the law and support human rights. They also provide links between governance and human rights and the opportunities for citizens to hold their government uprisings in North Africa have stimulated both hope to account—and enable donors, such as the United and anxiety throughout the continent. Indeed, many States, to engage directly in order to support and of the underlying issues are the same: large youth improve the process. population, high unemployment, rising food and fuel costs, persistent corruption, and limited political participation. Overarching Challenges But even prior to the Arab Spring, many Sub- Throughout much of Africa, one of the most Saharan African countries have been submerged overt threats to democracy and human rights is in a prolonged period of transition. Some countries widespread political oppression. Whether outright have seen forward movement while others have dictatorships or authoritarian rulers, these gov- gone backwards. Indeed, the struggle to develop ernments categorically deny citizens access to the viable democratic institutions and legal frameworks political process. Few regimes of this nature remain that enable the protection of human rights, account- as there is increasing international—and regional— ability, and the rule of law can be seen across the pressure not to maintain such centralized power. In continent—from Sierra Leone to South Africa. At some African countries, however, stark repression the same time, many repressive, authoritarian rul- continues and remains violent and direct. In other ers as well as ongoing conflicts across the continent countries there has been a steady decline in civic

33 participation through the passage of legislation that in Angola, security agents in civilian clothing have eviscerates fundamental freedoms through broadly- assaulted protesters with impunity; and police have defined provisions. For example, while Burundi arbitrarily arrested protesters, intimidated journal- saw the assassination of members of the National ists, and alleged that protests could restart civil Liberation Forces (FNL)—an armed group turned war in order to prevent future participation.8 In opposition party—and other opposition groups in Ethiopia, the prosecution of 29 Muslim community 2010 and 2011 and ongoing violent threats in 2012 protest leaders—charged under the deeply flawed and 2013,2 Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni anti-terrorism law—raises serious fair trial concerns has maintained power for 27 years, with threats to as the government has provided defendants with freedom of expression, assembly and association limited access to legal counsel and closed the hear- escalating over the last decade.3 ings to the defendants’ relatives and the public. In Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Party These are only two examples of measures taken maintains a monopoly over political power by out- across the continent that present challenges for effec- right prohibiting independent coverage of voting tive governance and have implications, over the long and offering employment opportunities to those who term, for development and stability. joined or allied with them.4 In Ethiopia, the death of While political violence is the most direct threat long-time Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has thus far and the suppression of civil society a major obstacle led to little change in a severely restrictive environ- to political participation and the protection of rights, ment that includes cases of government assistance these are both symptoms of a more serious and being offered only to farmers who support the ruling systemic underlying challenge: weak or nonexistent party, essentially tying economic security, long-term rule of law and unaccountable security forces. The livelihoods, and even basic survival of families to interlocking nature of these two obstacles means that support for the party.5 Such forms of oppression are in many cases cycles of violence and impunity con- far more insidious because they can be more difficult tinue. An example of such a challenge is in Kenya to detect than overt political violence and are some- where authorities have made no effort to investigate times overlooked as a violation of rights. or prosecute serious crimes committed by security Political violence and oppression are often tied to forces.9 the suppression of civil society, a growing problem Despite the positive turn towards growing judi- in many African countries. Indeed, the worrisome cial independence, most Kenyan authorities have limiting of freedom of speech, press and assembly taken similarly reluctant stances in the past when is often a tactic to stave off opposition. In some presented with such findings.10 Recent reports of cases, governments take steps to ensure that certain undisciplined security force behavior in Nigeria—in topics are off-limits: Angola, for instance, has press response to Boko Haram attacks—have also been laws regulating “abuse of press freedom,” which has met with rejection and dismissal. Insecurity cannot been broadly interpreted and used to restrict com- be addressed solely by security forces, particularly if mentary on government policy.6 Even South Africa, they are undisciplined—as such initiatives may serve recognized as a regional leader on human rights and to worsen the problem as opposed to mitigating it.11 which generally protects constitutional freedoms, is To be sure, some notable steps have been taken in the midst of debating a bill that could regulate to hold the worst offenders to account, including discussion and dissemination of information about through the conviction for war crimes and crimes “state security.”7 Vague wording and broad defini- against humanity of Liberia’s former president tions allow authorities to prosecute journalists and Charles Taylor in 2012 and Senegal’s recent arrest activists whose statements are critical of the govern- of former Chadian leader Hissene Habre to be ment, oppose the ruling party’s policies, or simply tried in a special court in Dakar, but the rule of law upset local authorities. remains restricted and accountability undermined in In some countries, when citizens seek to protest many countries. Unfortunately such examples still peacefully, authorities respond with excessive force: remain the exception—not the rule.

34 Positive Cases: Improvements in Human Rights The government has recognized that it still There are some positive developments worth has numerous challenges to address and is taking highlighting, including recent successes in Liberia impressive steps to do so. While the death penalty is and Ghana. Liberia, which ended its civil war still on the books, the government has accepted rec- almost a decade ago, has made significant improve- ommendations to abolish it. And, despite continuing to sentence people to death, no executions were car- ments in the area of freedom of speech. Since the 17 2010 passage of the Freedom of Information Act, ried out in 2012. In August 2012, the Ghanaian the government has been a regional leader for the government ratified the Convention on the Rights promotion of access to information. In 2012, libel of Persons with Disabilities and passed the Mental Health Act of 2012 in order to work towards was decriminalized, and the government has sup- improving protection of the rights and freedoms of ported a movement to decriminalize libel and insult those with mental disabilities.18 The passage of laws throughout Africa.12 While legal defense is still dif- is only a first step towards rectifying the inhumane ficult to obtain for the poor, access did improve in treatment of Ghanaians with disabilities, but it is 2010 with the deployment of public defenders, who certainly a positive one. While Ghana continues to were operating in each county by the end of 2012.13 face challenges with corruption and violence against Corruption remains endemic throughout Liberia, women and the LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and but there have been some positive developments, transgender) community, it remains a strong exam- particularly with the government admitting to fraud ple of democratic governance in the region. and agreeing to an external audit.14 Finally, Liberia’s military—once a violently abusive and predatory force—has seen large-scale improvements in recent Negative Cases: Backsliding on Human Rights years following a major initiative, led by the United While Liberia and Ghana are strong examples of States and the United Nations, to strengthen and an improved human rights situation, there are many professionalize the Liberian Armed Forces. The cases of governments backsliding, including Ethiopia U.S. took the lead in vetting, reforming, and training and Zimbabwe. Ethiopia has seen economic gains the national army, which has resulted in a force of and improvements in socioeconomic indicators, but 2,000 apparently more professional troops.15 Major it may be little more than a red herring given the challenges remain, but Liberia’s ongoing progress is inextricable link between human rights and long- noteworthy. term development. In Ethiopia, political avenues for Ghana similarly stands out for its successful tran- peaceful protest have been shut down. Opposition sition from a history of military rule and coups to leaders, civil society activists, and independent jour- a functioning democracy. The four elections since nalists have been jailed or forced to flee persecution Jerry Rawlings was forced to step down have been for exercising their right to freedom of expression. widely recognized as free and fair by the inter- Worse still are the abuses committed by Ethiopia’s national community. Despite fierce competition security forces throughout the country. between the two major political parties, the National The passage of the 2009 Charities and Societies Democratic Congress and New Patriotic Party, the Proclamation provides unfettered powers to the 2012 elections were largely peaceful. These elections Charities and Societies Agency and restricts free- followed a 2011 commitment by all major political dom of association and peaceful assembly—includ- parties to denounce intimidation tactics and cut ing by restricting the amount of foreign funds non- down on harsh rhetoric, signifying further embrace governmental organizations (NGOs) could acquire. of genuine democratic participation by all sides.16 Similarly, the overly broad language in the 2009 Equally important was the peaceful transfer of Anti-Terrorist Proclamation has been used to target power in 2011, when President Atta Mills died unex- journalists, members of the opposition, and dissent- pectedly and was immediately succeeded by Vice ers, with at least 30 individuals convicted in 2012 President John Dramani Mahama without conflict. alone.19 Forty-nine journalists have fled Ethiopia

35 over the last five years while others are forced to and Protection of Privacy Act and Public Order and choose between self-censorship and being charged Security Act have been used regularly to restrict with terrorist activity if they publish articles critical freedom of assembly and arrest and prosecute those of the government or prominent political figures.20 who speak out on human rights issues or criticize These laws have deeply affected the ability of indi- the government.24 Civil society groups and NGOs viduals and nongovernmental NGOs to address have faced increased harassment under these laws. human rights violations and participate in social One rights group, Women of Zimbabwe Arise, issues. saw more than 200 members arrested in 2013 25 In addition to severely restricting civil space, there alone. Independent and opposition media cover- are numerous cases of state-sponsored violence. age is also severely restricted and further limits Witness accusations of abuse such as torture during accountability of the government: the Zimbabwe interrogation and forced confessions from prisoners Broadcasting Authority has consistently refused have gone largely uninvestigated.21 In response to to grant licenses to private broadcasters in an protests by members of the Muslim community after attempt to stifle any independent lines of discussion the government sought to interfere in the religious and channel coverage through groups that support 26 sphere, the police used excessive force—includ- ZANU-PF. In September 2012, the Minister of ing beatings and the use of tear gas—to break Media, Information, and Publicity threatened to up the peaceful movement.22 This has generated begin revoking operating licenses of organizations 27 greater religious tensions, a problem that cannot that denounced the ZANU-PF leadership. be addressed militarily. Finally, the government The police have followed through on this threat has stepped up “villagization” programs: originally through raids of production studios of independent intended as voluntary relocation, numerous reports news groups, seizure of material, and attacks on indicate that the government is forcibly evicting citi- reporters, all of which have increased in advance of zens. In many cases, these forced evictions involved the 2013 elections.28 More generally, Zimbabwe’s intimidation by security forces, arbitrary arrest of security forces are tightly controlled by ZANU-PF dissenters, and beating those who questioned reloca- and exhibit a long history of partisanship on their tion.23 In the majority of these incidents, the govern- behalf. Zimbabwe’s security forces operate within ment forces have faced no investigation or liability a system that allows elements within their ranks to for their actions. arbitrarily arrest, torture and kill perceived oppo- Zimbabwe, once the continent’s bright spot, has nents with impunity. Worse still is their interfering been on the road to ruin over the last decade. More role in the nation’s political and electoral affairs in than four years after Zimbabwe’s violent and disput- ways that have adversely affected the ability of citi- ed 2008 presidential election, the Zimbabwe African zens to vote freely. The security forces are partisan National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the and abusive, particularly against opposition mem- Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party bers, their supporters and members of civil society. have yet to implement key reforms envisioned under their power-sharing agreement. Neither the ZANU- Conclusion PF-controlled security forces nor others responsible On a continent that continues to be in transition, for torture and killings during the 2008 election have human rights and democracy remain core compo- been held to account. This, combined with the lack nents that must be upheld if African governments of progress on institutional and legal reforms, means are to see sustainable progress in a range of areas. that many Zimbabweans fear a renewed cycle of With some successes and some setbacks on gover- violence, particularly with elections to be held in nance, the question for U.S. policymakers is how advance of any genuine reform. can the United States best make a lasting contribu- Political leaders have also failed to address restric- tion to good governance and human rights in Africa? tive laws on civil society: the Access to Information Is providing significant development assistance to a

36 government despite its troubled record on funda- 8 Human Rights Watch, “Angola,” World Report 2013: mental rights and governance a sensible decision Events of 2012, United States, 2013: 78-79. given the long-term implications? Should security 9 Human Rights Watch, Kenya: Taking Liberties, United interests in the Horn of Africa and increasingly in States, July 1, 1991; Human Rights Watch, Playing with the Sahel trump the importance of providing assis- Fire: Weapons Proliferation, Political Violence, and Human tance geared towards enhancing accountability and Rights in Kenya, May 2002: http://www.hrw.org/ transparency? Ultimately, the goal should be to pro- reports/2002/kenya/; Human Rights Watch, Ballots vide support not only to African governments but to Bullets: Organized Political Violence and Kenya’s Crisis of to African people as well. And to pass this test, the Governance, March 2008: 2. U.S. needs to craft a policy that goes beyond rheto- 10 Human Rights Watch, “You are All Terrorists’: Kenyan ric—and towards one that legitimately incorporates Police Abuse of Refugees in Nairobi, May 20, 2013: 3. security concerns, economic interests, and effective 11 Human Rights Watch, Spiraling Violence: Boko Haram governance. Until all three issues genuinely have an Attacks and Security Force Abuses in Nigeria, October equal place at the table, the potential for U.S. policy 11, 2012:http://www.hrw.org/reports/2012/10/11/ towards Africa to be weak and antiquated is high. spiraling-violence-0.

12 Freedom House, “Liberia,” Freedom in the World 2013, Endnotes http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom- world/2013/liberia. 1 Courtney Weatherby, a graduate student at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service, contrib- 13 Human Rights Watch, “Liberia,” World Report 2011: uted to this paper. Events of 2010, United States, 2011: 143; Amnesty International, “Annual Report: Liberia 2013,” May 23, 2 Human Rights Watch, World Report 2012: Events of 2011, 2013: http://www.amnestyusa.org/research/reports/ United States, 2012: 92; Human Rights Watch, World annual-report-liberia-2013. Report 2013: Events of 2012, United States, 2012: 83-84; Human Rights Watch, “You Will Not Have Peace While You 14 Freedom House, “Liberia,” Freedom in the World 2013, Are Living”: The Escalation of Political Violence in Burundi, http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom- May 2, 2012: 1. world/2013/liberia.

3 Human Rights Watch, A Media Minefield: Increased 15 Better World Campaign, “The UN Mission in Liberia,” Threats to Freedom of Expression in Uganda, May 2, 2010: UN Peacekeeping, December 2012: http://www.better- 2; Human Rights Watch, Curtailing Criticism: Intimidation worldcampaign.org/un-peacekeeping/missions/libe- and Obstruction of Civil Society in Uganda, August ria.html. 21, 2012: 1; Human Rights Watch, Uganda: Launch 16 Freedom House, “Ghana,” Freedom in the World 2013, Independent Inquiry into Killings, May 8, 2011, http:// http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom- www.hrw.org/news/2011/05/08/uganda-launch-inde- world/2013/ghana. pendent-inquiry-killings; Human Rights Watch, Uganda: 17 Amnesty International, “Annual Report: Ghana 2013,” Investigate Use of Lethal Force During Riots, October 1, May 23, 2013, http://www.amnestyusa.org/research/ 2009, http://www.hrw.org/news/2009/10/01/ugan- reports/annual-report-ghana-2013. da-troops-killed-unarmed-people-riot-period. 18 Human Rights Watch, “Ghana: Disability Rights 4 Human Rights Watch World Report 2013: Events of 2012, Convention Ratified,” August 22, 2012, http://www. United States, 2013: 106. hrw.org/news/2012/08/22/ghana-disability-rights- 5 Human Rights Watch, Development without Freedom: How convention-ratified. Aid Underwrites Repression in Ethiopia, 2010: 4. 19 Human Rights Watch, “Ethiopia,” World Report 2012: 6 Human Rights Watch, “Angola,” World Report 2013: Events of 2011, United States, 2012: 114-115. Events of 2012, United States, 2013: 77-78. 20 Committee to Protect Journalists, Ethiopia, http://www. 7 Human Rights Watch, “South Africa,” World Report 2013: cpj.org/2013/02/attacks-on-the-press-in-2012-ethio- Events of 2012, United States, 2013: 160. pia.php.

37 21 Amnesty International, “Annual Report: Ethiopia 2013,” 26 Committee to Protect Journalists, “Zimbabwean police May 23, 2013: http://www.amnestyusa.org/research/ raid news agency, seize equipment,” October 3, 2012: reports/annual-report-ethiopia-2013?page=show. http://www.cpj.org/2012/10/zimbabwean-police- 22 Human Rights Watch, “Ethiopia: Prominent Muslims raid-news-agency-seize-equipment.php. Detained in Crackdown,” August 15, 2012: http:// 27 MISA, “Minister threatens newspapers,” The www.hrw.org/news/2012/08/15/ethiopia-prominent- Zimbabwean, September 17, 2012: http://www.thezim- muslims-detained-crackdown. babwean.co/news/zimbabwe/60836/minister-threat- 23 Human Rights Watch, “Waiting Here for Death”: ens-newspapers.html. Displacement and “Villagization” in Ethiopia’s Gambella 28 Committee to Protect Journalists, “Zimbabwean police Region, January 17, 2012: 35. seize radios in run-up to election,” February 28, 2013: 24 Human Rights Watch, “Zimbabwe,” World Report 2013: http://www.cpj.org/2013/02/zimbabwean-police- Events of 2012, United States, 2013: 186-187. seize-radios-in-run-up-to-electi.php; Committee to 25 Amnesty International, “Annual Report: Zimbabwe Protect Journalists, “Zimbabwean journalists targeted 2013,” AmnestyUSA.org, May 30, 2013: http://www. amid pre-election tension,” June 18, 2013: http:// amnestyusa.org/research/reports/annual-report-zim- www.cpj.org/2013/06/zimbabwean-journalists-target- babwe-2013?page=show. ed-amid-pre-election.php.

38 A Forklift in the Road: A Snapshot of Economic Choices and African Governance

Mark Green President, Initiative for Global Development Former U.S. Ambassador to Tanzania

An acquaintance of mine recently talked his Africa) has gone up tenfold, reaching $340 billion in way onto an old cargo ship on East Africa’s Lake 2012 (Ernst and Young, 2013 Africa Attractiveness Victoria. Even though the vessel wasn’t much to Report). Just as importantly, Africans themselves look at it, he was impressed with how smoothly she are expressing their optimism by “talking with their sailed between ports. When they were safely tied feet.” As Jean-Louis Ekra, President of the African up at one stop, he found the captain up on deck, Export Import Bank, and an Initiative for Global leaning against a railing, looking at the pier below. Development (IGD) “Frontier Leader,” said in a Then he saw what the captain was watching—a recent interview with IGD, “Many Africans that long line of young African men, each stripped to the have been trained abroad are looking at returning waist, loading heavy sacks of grain, one at a time, on to Africa—that was not the case 7-10 years ago.” to the ship. Ten thousand sacks of grain, it turned Indeed, Africa’s growth is impressive and increas- out, which took more than a dozen hours to haul ingly broad-based. According to the International on board. Monetary Fund, six of the ten fastest growing After a while, my acquaintance turned to his host economies from 2001 to 2010 were in Africa and, and said in a sarcastic tone, “Did you ever think of looking forward through 2017, 11 of the 20 fastest using, say, a forklift?” The captain paused briefly, growing economies will be on the continent. African pointed to the line of working men, and said, “I’m economies have tripled in size since 2000 (IMF), all they’ve got. So, no, I won’t be using a forklift.” and according to the firm Renaissance Capital, an investment bank focused on emerging markets Everyone’s Talking About Africa (and cited in the Ernst & Young report), 11 African countries grew at an annual rate of at least 7 per- Africa is finally getting its economic “moment cent in the last decade. Contrary to conventional in the sun.” As President Barack Obama said dur- wisdom, this growth isn’t merely due to new dis- ing his July 2013 visit to Tanzania, “The world is coveries in the extractive sector. According to the investing in Africa like never before...So I see Africa IMF, “non-oil” economic growth on the continent as the world’s next major economic success story.” has averaged 5.4 percent over the last five years. International investors are showing their support World Bank figures show that 27 African countries by ramping up their dollars, euros and renminbi. have already attained “middle income” status and In the last ten years, Africa’s trade with the rest of a number of others are well on their way to doing the world has quadrupled, and its trade with the so in the next decade. In summary, in May 2000, “BRICS” (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South The Economist famously referred to Africa as the

39 “hopeless continent.” Just over ten years later, in protests in Egypt would be akin to avoiding Canada 2011, that same publication ran a cover story called because of drug-related crime in Mexico. “Africa Rising.” So What Can Go Wrong? American Business: Late to the Dance? Of course, Africa’s continued rise isn’t inevi- In many ways, U.S. business has been a step table—not by a long shot. The negative perceptions slow in recognizing Africa’s rise and the eco- that many have of the continent exist for a reason. nomic opportunity it represents. As the editors of As any honest observer of the continent will admit, Bloomberg.com put it recently, African leaders are facing a number of challenges and choices that will determine whether their coun- “Which continent is home to six of the tries are positioned to capture their economic desti- world’s ten fastest growing economies and is ny. In short, governance—from building the capac- projected to grow by 5 percent in 2013, more ity of democracies to respond to their citizens’ needs than twice the U.S. rate? And which one gets to fostering sustainable economic growth based only 1 percent of U.S. foreign direct invest- upon market principles—may be the single most ment? The answer, of course, is Africa…” important factor in shaping the continent’s future. (July 7, 2013) The European Union (EU) nations, if taken Demographic Challenges together, are well ahead of the U.S. in terms of Arguably, the most immediate challenge for trade with Africa. In 2009, China became Africa’s African elected leaders is finding effective ways to single largest trading partner, and in the last few meet the needs and demands of a rapidly-growing years, other nations have dramatically boosted younger generation. A “youth bulge” is emerging in their stake in Africa as well—nations like Brazil, much of the continent and quickly changing the face Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea, the of every region. According to African Union figures, United Arab Emirates and Iran (Center for Strategic half the continent’s population is under the age of and International Studies Global Forecast 2012). 20, and the 15 to 24 age group is growing faster in What has been holding American business Africa than any other place in the world. In places investment back? According to many observers, like Tanzania, some 70 percent of the population it’s a poorly balanced sense of risk and reward. is under the age of 30. In Liberia, 65 percent of the As Andrew Alli, President of the African Finance population is under 25 (African Business, June 2013). Corporation, and another IGD Frontier Leader, On one hand, the youth bulge represents a great puts it, opportunity for African economies to mobilize “Many investors’ perceptions of Africa are production and productivity. By 2020, according to somewhat distorted…People are focused on IMF estimates, Africa will have 122 million more things they hear in the press, violence, cor- young people ready to enter the workforce than ruption, not that these are not problems, but any other region of the world. By 2035, the con- they are often exaggerated because investors tinent will have the world’s largest workforce—at coming to Africa look at it as a high risk envi- a time when many regions of the world are facing ronment and expect high returns.” (Interview an aging population and rising labor costs. As jour- posted at IGDleaders.org) nalist Howard French puts it, “Africa has entered what experts call a demographic ‘sweet spot.’ For Alli and Jean-Louis Ekra are quick to point out the next few decades, the distribution of people by the obvious to American audiences: there are 54 age will be sharply skewed toward the young, who countries on the African continent, with different are energetic, eager to work and maximally produc- policies, cultures and conditions. Characterizing the tive.” (The China-Africa Convergence: Can America Catch continent as risky or dangerous because of violent Up? All Africa, June 15, 2013).

40 On the other hand, taking advantage of the youth ing expectations will inevitably put greater pressure demographic requires jobs and economic opportu- on elected leaders. On a continent long dominated nity sufficient to satisfy the aspirations of these by colonial governments or one-party regimes, young adults—opportunity that is currently lacking there are increasingly credible opposition parties in many areas. Young people make up 60 percent and strong political debate. From 1960-1989, only of Africa’s unemployed population (Agbor, Taiwo five African countries had regular democratic elec- and Smith, in Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for tions. Since 1990, over 30 leaders or ruling parties the Continent 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa’s Youth Bulge: have changed through democratic process (Ernst A Demographic Dividend or Disaster?). A 2012 analysis of & Young). As the Economist Intelligence Unit Africa’s changing workforce reports that of the con- puts it, “Elections have become a normal occur- tinent’s 40 million currently unemployed youths, rence in Sub-Saharan Africa…” (Democracy Index 22 million have given up on finding a job (African Report 2012). The United Nations Development Economic Outlook 2012, produced by the African Programme characterizes this trend as a “virtual sea Development Bank, OECD, UNECA and UNDP). change in governance.” (UNDP.org/Africa). While Of those working, World Bank figures suggest that this relative flowering of democracy is positive in much of their activity is in the “informal economy,” so many ways, it also creates new political realities. usually small-scale agriculture, which often brings Large numbers of unemployed or underemployed lower pay. In places like Mali and Ethiopia, for youth in Africa could prove a powerful voting example, 94 percent and 74 percent, respectively, bloc—and in some places, protest bloc—that will of youths are “self-employed in the informal and need attention. agricultural sectors.” (Agbor, Taiwo and Smith). The lure of “quick revenue” in the form of lucra- As young people become more connected to tive natural resource discoveries will only increase their counterparts in other regions and nations, and the pressure on some political leaders. In the case more aware of their comparative economic circum- of oil and gas development, as Brookings Visiting stances, unskilled manual labor seems less likely to Scholar and former World Bank official, Tamar satisfy them. Technology is dramatically chang- Atinc, recently put it, ing generational perceptions and expectations. As Zimbabwean-born Strive Masiyiwa, Founder and “So far, the track record for effectively man- Executive Chairman of Econet Wireless Group, aging natural resource wealth has been pretty points out, “In 1994, 70 percent of Africans had dismal with very few countries successfully never heard a phone ring. Today, 70 percent own a using their natural resource wealth to pro- telephone.” (Opportunity is Africa’s Middle Name, IGD mote sustained economic growth and poverty blog, November 8, 2012). The advent of afford- reduction. In fact, many countries have not able mobile phones and social media, access to the only squandered their resources but their eco- internet, long distance radio, and satellite television nomic performance has actually worsened in in gathering places like Internet cafes, means that many cases, leading to what is often referred young people are much more likely to realize what to as “the resource curse.” (Avoiding the Resource they don’t have. IPods, smart phones and tablet Curse: How to Manage Natural Resource Wealth for computers are no less exciting to young people in Human Development, Brookings Institution Up Nairobi than those in New York. Real economic Front, July 11, 2013). opportunity provides a hope—even far off—of Atinc suggests that such revenue sources can acquiring such products. A perceived lack of oppor- tempt policymakers to spend money without mak- tunity can lead to the opposite feeling: despair. ing either long-term investments in such needs as education and workforce training, or undertaking Stresses on Democracy optimal policy reforms. While Africa’s economies are growing faster than Natural resource discoveries are not the only elsewhere, the combination of a youth bulge and ris- form of “revenue temptation.” Chinese loans and

41 investments in Africa, accurately or not, are often A Few of the Ways the U.S. Can Help criticized for being “tied” or otherwise bearing U.S. policymakers should carefully examine conditions that can distort policymaking. Tied existing assistance programs to ensure that they loans, as described in a recent article in The emphasize (if not actually be built upon) the role Economist, provide that “the recipient must spend of private enterprise and market-based principles the money with Chinese companies….With no in development. As a recent report of the bipar- competition, favoured (sic) firms get away with tisan CSIS Executive Council on Development delivering bad roads and overpriced hospitals. concludes, the U.S. should “place broad-based Creditors and donors often set the wrong priori- economic growth and job creation in developing ties” (“Trying to pull together: Africans are asking countries at the center of U.S. development and whether China is making their lunch or eating it.” diplomatic policy.” (Our Shared Opportunity: A Vision The Economist, April 20 2011). Another frequent for Global Prosperity, CSIS, March 2013). charge is that Chinese investments are made in The clearest example of an assistance program exchange for long-term contracts that lock up rights that tries to meet this charge is the MCC. Countries to African natural reserves, limiting both competi- are only eligible for MCC grant compacts if they tion and long-term economic flexibility (Raymond are able to demonstrate a commitment to good Hu, Chinese Investment in Africa: A Dangerous governance, as reflected in three broad areas—rul- Game, American Foreign Policy, Princeton Student ing justly, investing in its people and economic Editorials on Global Politics, March 2011). While freedom—as measured by 20 objective indicators. efforts are underway to address these conditions Compacts are drawn up after conducting a thor- through, for example, newly announced “diplo- ough “binding constraints to growth analysis” that matic frameworks” between China and Africa, it is identifies policies and conditions that are restricting unlikely that there will be major changes in the near private sector growth. Most importantly, compact term (China’s New Leadership and Sino-Africa Relations, implementation relies on a “country ownership” 2013 Foresight Africa, The Brookings Institution). model that explicitly aims to build country capacity for leading sustainable economic development proj- Signs of Progress, Reasons for Optimism ects and partnering with the business community While the foregoing challenges are real, there even after the five-year compact itself has ended. are many signs that African leaders are embracing While the most visible compact outcomes—usually the continent’s economic potential. For example, the completion of infrastructure projects like roads, the Doing Business 2013 Report, a project of energy production, etc.—are what garner the most the International Finance Corporation and World public attention, in many ways the experience itself Bank which tracks the business environment across of administering complex projects, on time, under the globe, concludes that African governments are budget, through transparent means, partnering improving how they regulate and interact with pri- with business and according to international stan- vate businesses. As measured by the Doing Business dards, is the most important benefit in any compact. Index, while in 2005 only a third of Sub-Saharan In addition to ensuring that international assis- nations were reforming their business regulations to tance programs emphasize the role of private make them simpler and more investment-friendly, enterprise, U.S. assistance policies should priori- now two-thirds are (“Doing Business 2013: Getting tize investments and sectors that are most likely to Better,” The Economist, Oct. 27, 2012). More and catalyze business activity and private sector growth. more African nations are making progress on the President Obama’s recently announced “Power Millennium Challenge Corporation’s (MCC) “eco- Africa” initiative and the “Electrify Africa Act,” nomic freedom” standards—a cluster or “bucket” co-authored by Representatives Royce, Engel, C. of eight objective indicators (For an in-depth discus- Smith and Bass, have the potential to increase sion of these indicators and their application, see access to reliable electricity in the next decade. MCC.gov). There are obvious humanitarian reasons for want-

42 ing to increase access to power for the nearly 600 tough choices African leaders are facing in craft- million Africans without electricity, but there are ing economic policy and governance. Commerce also important economic development reasons as in Africa is clearly on the upswing. There are real well. As President Obama said in unveiling Power reasons to be optimistic about rising standards of Africa, “Our primary interest when it comes to living and long-term economic activity. But seizing working with Africa on energy issues has to do with those opportunities will require making investments how we power Africa so that it can be an effective market creating jobs and opportunity. We also then that may not satisfy some immediate needs, nor be have somebody to trade with and sell iPods to, and politically popular. Do we keep our focus on the airplanes, and all kinds of good stuff.” Increasing shirtless men toiling away in the hot sun—men who access to reliable, more affordable power can lower are working for very little, but working nonetheless? manufacturing costs and increase manufacturing Or do we focus on policies and investments that potential. This, in turn, should help leaders respond provide hope for the younger men behind them? to the younger generation’s growing demand for Do we only encourage men to carry those heavy economic opportunity. sacks, or do we bring in the forklifts and teach a few men to drive—knowing, hoping, that we give That “Forklift in the Road” younger men (and women) the tools and inspiration The picture my acquaintance painted in his story to one day buy their own forklifts? Tough choices of the old boat on Lake Victoria reminds me of the to go along with Africa’s “moment in the sun.”

Food Security: Implications for Africa and the World

Gordon Conway, Ph.D. Chair in International Development Imperial College

The challenges Progress to date Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is faced with three While some African countries are ‘stalled in daunting challenges: repeated food price spikes, a cycle of conflict and poverty,’ according to a over 200 million people who are chronically hun- report by One, a nonpartisan advocacy group that gry, and the need to feed a world of growing addresses extreme poverty, other African coun- demands by 2050. tries have particularly stood out as having the There have been three global food price spikes elements of success stories. Fourteen countries— since 2007, the latest peaking toward the end of Benin, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, 2012. Each has been devastating for the poor of Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritania, Mozambique, Africa who spend most of their income on food. Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo and Uganda— Since 2007, hunger has been rising by 2 percent have shown remarkable progress since 2005. Across per year. Today, over 200 million people, nearly these countries, gross domestic product (GDP) 23 percent, of the African population, are now growth averaged 6 percent between 2005 and 2011 classed as hungry. Most shocking of all, 40 percent and nine of these countries are on track to halve of children under age five in SSA are under-height extreme poverty by 2015. for their age due to malnutrition and are destined Nevertheless the proportion of Sub-Saharan to suffer from stunted growth, blindness and death. Africa’s population suffering from hunger has bare- This is not a transient crisis. In SSA the popula- ly decreased over the past eight years (since G8 tion is growing at about 2.5 percent per annum and leaders announced a new aid package of $50 billion will double by 2050, to close to two billion. This at the Gleneagles summit), and due to population population has to be fed, while at the same time growth, the absolute number of hungry people per capita incomes are beginning to rise and some has actually risen during this time. While only one African countries are seeing growing demands for country in SSA—Ghana—has met and exceeded dairy, poultry and other meat products requir- the United Nations Millennium Development Goal ing increases in livestock feed production. Present (MDG) No. 1 to halve, between 1990 and 2015, and future supply is constrained by increasing the proportion of people who suffer from poverty energy and fertilizer prices, deteriorating soil and and hunger, 13 other countries in SSA are on track water resources, poor yield growth, and the varied to halve poverty, and 10 countries are on track to impacts of climate change. halve hunger.

45 According to the World Bank, food insecu- at least 6 percent per year, and increasing public rity may prove to be the biggest obstacle to the investment in agriculture to 10 percent of national developing world’s long-term economic growth. budgets per year. Agricultural growth directly stimulates overall After a slow start, CAADP progress has been national economic growth and poverty reduction: good. Most important, there is strong support for 1 percent growth in per capita agricultural GDP the CAADP process among European donors, has been shown to lead to 1.6 percent growth in the working together with other donors through chan- incomes of the poorest 20 percent of the popula- nels such as the Global Donor Platform for Rural tion. Moreover in SSA smallholders are key to this Development. As of 2012, 30 countries have com- growth: the approximately 33 million small farms, pleted the CAADP Roundtable process and signed i.e., those less than two hectares (hectare = 2.47 strategy documents, known as ‘compacts.’ acres), make up 80 percent of all farms and supply up to 90 percent of agricultural production in some SSA countries. In some countries, large-scale The Solutions estates have been developed especially for export A practical pathway toward the goal of universal crops such as cotton, oil palm and tea. We should food security is needed, one that has less impact expect this trend to continue and where appropri- on the environment, intensifying food produc- ate to expand to food crops such as maize, wheat tion while ensuring the natural resource base on and sorghum. But for the foreseeable future food which agriculture depends is sustained, and indeed security is going to have to rely on greater yields improved, for future generations. from the overwhelmingly smallholder population At the same time, because of the widespread and on ensuring they are better connected to input lack of good land and water in SSA and the high and output markets. cost of inputs, we must learn to do more with less. While Sub-Saharan Africa is a highly diverse Sustainable Intensification is a new paradigm that region, its agriculture is characterized by a relatively aims to produce more food on the same amount of common range of interacting, socioeconomic and land, with responsible use of water, fertilizers and biophysical strengths, weaknesses, opportunities pesticides, as well as achieving lower emissions of and threats. greenhouse gases. Moreover it tries to do this in a Today the strengths and opportunities outweigh way that is both efficient, resilient and contributes the weaknesses and threats. Appropriate solutions to the stock of natural environmental capital, for to the challenges exist and there are strong signs example cleaner water, carbon sequestration, flood of a new, distinctively African, agricultural renais- protection, groundwater recharge and landscape sance. Much of the acceleration in GDP growth in amenity value. SSA has been driven by faster agricultural growth Many of the farming systems in Africa are far and the potential for greater agricultural productiv- from their productive potential. Average cereal ity is very high. In many respects Africa is the last yields sit currently at a meager 1.3 tons per hectare, agricultural frontier and smallholder farming will whereas, for example, maize (corn) modern hybrids remain a leading sector for several decades to come. can produce 3-7 tons per hectare. Achieving higher In recent years there has been a step change yields will require intensification. This can take in the way African leaders, African regions and many forms. The current model has served us well African governments approach agriculture. Since for a hundred years or more, including its underpin- 2003, the African Union’s Comprehensive Africa ning of the Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP), that kept food production in pace with population has provided an official channel for developing growth. But the context has radically changed. regional and national agricultural sector policies, Conventional intensification is not a viable solution strategies, and investment programs. Key commit- if it comes at the expense of the environmental and ments include: raising agricultural productivity by social resources on which it depends.

46 Today many farmers in the industrialized world ed by highly productive intercropping that relies on are striving to ensure their inputs are much more reducing competition and increasing mutual bene- precisely targeted. Their goal is to reduce costs fits between crops, by Integrated Pest Management and optimize returns on inputs while preserving (IPM) that depends on natural enemies replacing resources. To this end they are increasingly relying pesticides and by conservation farming using no-till on new technologies like satellite imagery, informa- to encourage the build-up of organic matter in the tion technology and geospatial tools. Such precision soil. farming is not appropriate for the smallholder farm- Genetic intensification relies on the concentra- ers who predominate in SSA, but the same prin- tion of beneficial genes in crop varieties and live- ciples may apply. stock breeds. Since the cellular and molecular revo- For example, fertilizers are increasingly costly lution of the last century, conventional breeding has in SSA and often inefficiently used. One highly been augmented by forms of biotechnology—cell efficient and intrinsically sustainable approach is and tissue culture, marker-assisted selection and the technique of microdosing, developed to both genetic engineering—to further intensify the pro- minimize the application of inorganic fertilizer cess. Examples include the use of genetic inten- and to improve protection against drought. Each sification to increase crop yields, enable nitrogen microdose consists of a 6-gram mix of phosphorus uptake and fixation, improve nutrition and enhance and nitrogen fertilizer, which just fills the cap of a resilience to pests and diseases and climate change. soda bottle—an item that is easy to obtain. The cap Finally, socioeconomic intensification is the proof fertilizer is then poured into each hole before the cess of developing innovative and sustainable insti- seed is planted. It is somewhat more labor intensive tutions on the farm, in the community and across than broadcasting the fertilizer but very effective. regions and nations as a whole. Adoption of new This technique equates to using only four kilograms practices and technologies by farmers will only per hectare (kg/ha) of phosphorus, the key limit- happen and persist if an appropriate enabling ing nutrient, but is still very effective. Millet yields environment is supported that favors not only increase by over 50 percent and crops are better agricultural intensification but also its sustainabil- able to absorb water. ity. This encompasses innovation in the enabling environment and in the development of social and Precision farming human capital as well as the creation of sustainable Precision farming focuses on one aspect of livelihoods. Included are innovative ways of secur- Sustainable Intensification, namely the precise use of ing rights to land, of creating access to markets inputs. More generally, SI is a product of the applica- for seeds, fertilizers, microcredit and microinsur- tion of technological and socioeconomic approaches ance, and to sell produce at fair prices. Without to the task. There are two main technological secure rights to land, farmers will not invest in approaches—one is the application of agricultural improvements to their farms. New forms of farmer ecological processes (ecological intensification), the other association, including cooperatives and outgrower is to utilize modern plant and livestock breeding groups, are essential if smallholders are able to exert (genetic intensification). Concurrent to these approach- their bargaining power. In SSA, people—especially es is socioeconomic intensification, which provides an women smallholder farmers—are the key to suc- enabling environment to support technology adop- cessful innovation. tion and to ensure it is sustainably used. These, in turn, rely on innovation in science and technology The way forward and in socioeconomic institutions and processes. There are many examples of such innovation but often success is only achieved on a small scale—a The Components of Sustainable Intensification plot or a farm—and often with only one or two For example ecological intensification is illustrat- of the economic, social and environmental objec-

47 tives attained. The challenge lies in meeting all the Further Reading objectives and in scaling up success to a regional or 1. www. ag4impact.wordpress.com national production system. There are no magic bullets and no ‘one-size- 2. www. Canwefeedtheworld.org fits-all’ solutions. We also have to eschew dogmatic 3. Conway, G. 2012 One Billion Hungry: Can we assertions that one form of intervention, especially Feed the World? Ithaca: Cornell University Press one type of technology, is intrinsically best, whatever the circumstances. 4. Montpellier Panel 2012 Growth with Resilience: For the developed and emerging countries, such Opportunities for African Agriculture, London: as China and Brazil, there are considerable oppor- Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College tunities for transfer of technologies and processes 5. Montpellier Panel 2013 Sustainable Intensification: to SSA. The United States, in particular, has much A New Paradigm for African Agriculture. London: to offer from the experience and skills of both the Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the private sector. The U.S. Agency for International 6. Wiggins, S. and Yeats, S. 2013. Leaping and Development (USAID) is already playing a lead Learning: Linking Smallholders to Markets. London: role in this respect under Administrator Rajiv Shah. Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College and Food insecurity affects us all. We must act Overseas Development Institute. together on all fronts to tackle food insecurity: acting holistically to tackle the multiple causes and 7. Agriculture for Impact. 2013. 8 Views for the utilize multiple solutions, acting wisely to determine G8: Business solutions for African smallholder farmers to which solutions will be appropriate in different situ- address food security and nutrition. London: Agriculture ations and, most importantly, acting now. for Impact, Imperial College

48 Food Security: Implications for Africa and the World

Khalid Bomba Chief Executive Officer Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency

The issue of food insecurity in Sub-Saharan shrank considerably, from $6.2 billion in the 1980s Africa to $2.3 billion in 2002.3 Although these policy stances began to shift in the late 1990s, investments Food security exists when “all people, at all times, in the agricultural sector in SSA are still too low, have physical and economic access to sufficient, resulting in low uptake of improved inputs and safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs agronomic practices, low yields, and high post- and food preference for an active and healthy life.” harvest crop losses. For example, the application There are three pillars of food security: ‘food avail- of fertilizer in SSA is currently 10.5 kilograms per ability,’ referring to a country’s ability to supply hectare (hectare = 2.47 acres) compared to 230 sufficient quantities of food via domestic production kilograms per hectare in Asia. Similarly, only 6 and imports; ‘food access,’ referring to households’ percent of SSA’s arable land is irrigated, compared ability to get food in the marketplace or from other to 47 percent in Asia.4 Consequently, per-hectare sources; and ‘food utilization’ referring to individu- cereal yields for maize stood at 1.4 metric tons in als’ knowledge of basic nutrition and care as well as Eastern and Western Africa, compared to 5.2 and adequate water and sanitation.1 Each of these pil- 3.2 metric tons in Eastern Asia and South Eastern lars is required to ensure a healthy population. This Asia respectively.5 These yields are further reduced paper focuses on the two issues of food availability by post-harvest losses, due to farmers’ limited and food access. knowledge of and/or access to storage facilities and relevant harvesting, drying, threshing, and winnow- Insufficient food availability: focus on agricultural ing technologies.6 production Finally, it needs noting that for centuries, African An estimated 234 million people in Sub-Saharan farmers have focused primarily on food produc- Africa (SSA) suffer from chronic undernourishment, tion to directly meet their subsistence needs, with and as evidenced by its food imports and amount of any surplus food sold in the local market. Similar food aid it receives, particularly in contrast to its vast to other farmers across the world, African farmers available agricultural resources, the region is not must increasingly focus on their comparative advan- producing enough food to feed its people.2 tage to produce crops that will secure the highest In the late 20th century, many African govern- financial return from the market and use the rev- ments emphasized manufacturing over agriculture. enues from this production to purchase other foods In parallel, support from development partners to they require. the African agricultural sector during this period

49 Insufficient access: markets and infrastructure some of the interventions that Ethiopia has adopted One of the most glaring bottlenecks in small- to achieve these gains. These interventions could holder farmers’ access to input and output markets serve as examples for other countries in SSA as well is poor infrastructure, due to the region’s poorly as ideas for consideration by the U.S. and other developed road networks and lack of capacity in development partners supporting them. information and communication technologies. As a result, 76 percent of the crop production in the Snapshot of the Ethiopian economy and its agri- region is sourced from areas with more than 2.5 culture sector hours travel time to urban markets. Hence the shift Ethiopia is an agrarian country with the agri- from subsistence agriculture to market-led produc- culture sector contributing nearly 45 percent to tion must be coupled with investments in infrastruc- gross domestic product (GDP) and employing 83 ture development. percent of the population. With a population of 85 million and arable land mass of 74 million hectares, Insufficient focus on building resilience to handle Ethiopia has emerged to be the fifth fastest grow- shocks ing country in the SSA over 2000 to 2010. Over Given the vulnerability of smallholder farmers in the same period, the agriculture sector grew at an SSA to shocks, and the significant amount of land average of 8 percent and the country is projected to in the region that has been degraded due to erosion sustain this pace until at least 2015.9 In 2012-13, and nutrient mining, any discussion on food security Ethiopia produced nearly 20 million metric tons of in SSA must include solutions related to resilience. the five major cereals: tef, barley, wheat, maize, and For instance, until recently Ethiopia was estimated sorghum. This represents a 150 percent increase to be losing 1.9 billion metric tons of soil, equivalent from 1999 figures. During this same period, average to 30,000 hectares of arable land every year due to yield in cereals have also increased by 77 percent, soil erosion.7 Moreover, in many SSA countries, ranging from 3.1 tons/hectare for maize to 1.4 the lack of well-designed early warning systems, risk tons/hectare for tef. mitigation tools and proactive safety net programs However, nearly seven million people in Ethiopia result in national governments and the international are still chronically food insecure and rely on food community constantly dealing with expensive and and cash transfers for their survival. There is also difficult relief operations rather than more sustain- a persistent gap between agricultural production able and efficient preventative measures. and local demand in some parts of the country.10 Consequently, Ethiopia has embarked on a set of Progress in tackling food insecurity: the case of integrated interventions to ensure availability of Ethiopia and access to food for all, focusing on three broad areas: policy actions and investments to address For decades, Ethiopia has faced chronic food structural issues, interventions intended to increase insecurity. In particular, the country bears the scars the productivity of smallholder farmers to close the of the famine in the mid-1980s that took hundreds yield gap, and actions intended to improve the abil- of thousands of lives. However, through a compre- ity of farmers to access markets and become more hensive and integrated set of strategic interventions, resilient in the case of unforeseen circumstances. the country is increasingly able to respond to food security threats. These measures have enabled Ethiopia to make remarkable gains in improving Policy actions and investments to address struc- the livelihoods of the population. For instance, the tural issues number of Ethiopians living on less than $1.25 a Ethiopia’s agriculture related policy actions have day has fallen from 55 percent of the population in ranged from efforts to overcome broad structural 2000 to 29 percent in 2012.8 Although more still obstacles to narrower strategies to tackle issues in needs to be done, the following section highlights specific parts of the sector. Ethiopia put agriculture

50 at the heart of economic development two decades by implementing a series of coordinated interven- ago by launching its Agriculture Development tions to increase the productivity of smallholder Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy. This was farmers. The four interventions that act as pillars to further strengthened in the national Growth and this approach are described below: Transformation Plan (GTP) which covers 2010 to 2015, with ambitious targets for the agriculture Improved research and development: sector. Investments in the discovery, development, and Ethiopia has also developed a Policy and adaptation of improved seed varieties and other Investment Framework (PIF) under the technologies have been shown to yield average rates Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development of return of 80-100 percent.14 Over the past four 11 Program (CAADP) to enhance policy linkag- decades, Ethiopia’s agricultural research system has 12 es and highlight investment opportunities. The developed over 700 crop varieties. Unfortunately government has also addressed narrower policy many of these varieties have yet to be widely areas, such as re-writing the Seed Proclamation in adopted by local farmers. As such, a strong effort 2013, which provides guidelines for varietal release, is currently underway to more closely link the and quality production and distribution of seeds. research and extension system. Other efforts are Supporting these policy initiatives, Ethiopia has also underway to strengthen knowledge capac- made significant investments in agriculture related ity. For example, the Ethiopian Soil Information human, institutional and infrastructure capacity System project (EthioSIS) is a new project that uses development. Allocating an average of 14.7 per- remote sensing and satellite technology to create a cent of its budget to the agriculture sector since national soil map of the country. The digital soil 2004, Ethiopia is among eight African countries map will provide farmers and other stakeholders that have exceeded the 2003 Maputo declaration with up-to-date information on soil types for loca- that challenges African countries to invest at least tions across the country and allows the development 10 percent of their budget to the sector. More spe- of efficient and localized fertilizer application rates cifically, the establishment of 25 new agricultural and appropriate land management practices. Technical and Vocational Education and Training Centers (TVETs) has led to the training of 60,000 Development Agents (DAs) or agricultural exten- Timely access and use of high quality inputs sion workers. Employing these DAs at over 10,000 is among the most important factors for yield Farmer Training Centers (FTCs), Ethiopia current- improvements. A number of interventions are being ly has the highest density of agricultural extension undertaken aimed at solving challenges in the pro- workers in the world. duction, distribution and delivery of inputs. Furthermore, Ethiopia has invested heavily in • Demand-driven supply of fertilizer: improving its physical infrastructure. Since 2005, Leveraging the information generated by the road density has increased from 33.6 to 44.5 km per EthioSIS soil mapping project, Ethiopia is 1,000 people with plans to connect all kebele (small- constructing four fertilizer blending facilities est administration districts) with all-weather roads by in strategic locations around the country. the end of the 2015. Ethiopia also aims to increase These facilities will produce blended fertilizers irrigation coverage from 3 percent to 16 percent and for farmers that are tailored to the specific electricity coverage to 75 percent of the population soil nutrient qualities and crop needs for each during the Growth and Transformation Plan.13 agro-ecology in the country. • Seed production and marketing: Uncertified Interventions to increase production seeds from the informal sector with sub-optimal Leveraging the broader investments made in yield potential account for close to 94 percent human, institutional and infrastructure capacity, of the seed use in Ethiopia. As such, Ethiopia Ethiopia aims to improve its food security situation has been aggressively supporting the expan-

51 sion of certified seed production capacity of farmers documentation of collateral they can use to both private and public sector seed producers. secure immediate post-harvest financing. To improve marketing and distribution issues, Ethiopia is also exploring its own model of the Interventions expected to improve access Agro-Dealer programs that have been success- Given Ethiopia’s ambition to commercialize its ful in other parts of SSA. smallholder farmers, food security will rely increas- • Input credit—leveraging micro-finance ingly on the ability of farmers to access markets for institutions: Even when farmers are aware of their production as well as their demand for food the benefits of improved inputs, they may not need. In addition, given the margins at which most be able to access seeds and fertilizer due to low smallholder farmers operate, food security solutions access to credit. To address this, Ethiopia has must also consider resiliency strategies to account been strengthening the capacity of its com- for unforeseen shocks and circumstances such as mercially oriented micro-finance institutions droughts. and working to increase their efficiency by In terms of markets, Ethiopia has focused on leveraging innovations such as vouchers and three important areas: electronic transfer platforms. • Strengthening farmer associations and • Small-scale mechanization technologies: cooperatives: Though large in number, Traditional planting techniques contribute to small-scale farmers have limited bargain- low cereal yields. For instance, the technique ing power in agricultural markets owing to of broadcasting tef seeds by hand requires 30 their widely dispersed location and the very to 50 kg of seeds per hectare, 10 times larger small per-head contribution to market supply. than the recommended usage of 3 to 5 kilo- Farmer cooperatives can help to overcome grams per hectare. Small-scale mechanization this problem and reap the benefit of econo- technologies introduced to facilitate easier mies of scale which is of paramount impor- planting have led to yield increases of at least tance, especially given high transaction costs. 30 percent. To this end, Ethiopia has established 10,910 agricultural primary cooperatives and 179 More effective on-farm agronomic prac- multi-purpose cooperative unions. tices: Ethiopia’s diverse agro-ecologies require customized proportions of inputs, farming practices, • Bridging information gaps: Information and natural resource management techniques. As asymmetry is among the primary reasons such, the country’s extension system is providing behind smallholder farmer’s low profit margin recommendations that are customized at the crop in the lengthy supply chain of Ethiopian cereal and agro-ecological level. The effectiveness of the markets. Since its establishment in 2007, extension system is also being enhanced through the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange Market technologies such as participatory radio campaigns (ECX) has been working to enhance the per- that promote awareness as well as a collective formance of agricultural markets and build decision-making process. an efficient and transparent price discovery system.15 Improved warehousing: Storage facilities are • Creating opportunities for structured being improved and increased to reduce post- demand: Over the past few years, consider- harvest losses and increase the ability of farmers’ able work has been done in Ethiopia to link cooperatives/unions to decide on the timing and smallholder farmers to large commercial buy- volume of sales. Warehouses also serve as a plat- ers—both domestic (e.g., Mama Fresh Injera, form to link smallholder farmers with the financial the largest domestic producer of a traditional system, as the warehouse receipt framework gives Ethiopian flatbread) and international (e.g.,

52 Diageo, a major brewer). Ethiopia is also commercial agriculture. One such tool is the partnering with development organizations Rural Resilience Initiative (R4) launched such as the World Food Programme (WFP) to in 2010 by Oxfam America.17 R4 works catalyze such market opportunities. Through to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to weather its purchase for progress (P4P) project, in 2013 shocks through a four-legged comprehensive WFP expects to purchase ~25,000 metric risk management program; risk reduction tons of maize from Ethiopian cooperatives for (through improved resource management), its food aid operations. Although much care risk transfer (through micro insurance), pru- in design is needed, shifting in-kind food aid dent risk taking (though microcredit) and risk from other sources towards cash-based sys- reserves (savings). tems (as being done by WFP) could be a win- • The Productivity Safety Net Program win solution for all. It would create a demand (PSNP): The most important part of Ethiopia’s pull for local producers, and reduce the cost food security package is the PSNP, Africa’s of delivering food aid to beneficiaries. Most largest food security safety net program. The importantly, it would create market mecha- PSNP’s objective is to assist chronically food nisms that would strengthen rural economies insecure people by smoothing their food gap, and move communities away from a reliance protecting them from asset depletion and on food aid. developing resilience to minor shocks at the Given the fragile nature of most rural communi- household level. PSNP follows a three-legged ties emerging from traditional livelihoods and the implementation approach of transferring cash recurrence of droughts and more unpredictable and/or food for work to chronically food inse- weather patterns, food access solutions must include cure households, addressing transitory cash other tools besides merely access to markets. In and food needs and establishing community Ethiopia, these tools have included strategies to assets though the Household Asset Building make farmland more resilient to the elements, mar- Program. Also part of the PSNP is a Risk ket-based instruments designed to mitigate losses Financing Mechanism that is believed to have and well-designed safety net programs. minimized the impact of the 2011 Horn of • Developing strategies for a climate-resil- Africa food crisis in Ethiopia, as scenes of dev- ient economy: The World Bank estimated astation were seen in neighboring countries.18 that unless the negative impacts of climate change are abated in a timely fashion, they Conclusion will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth between 0.5 and 2.5 percent each year, possibly halv- The United States Department of Agriculture ing the potential GDP projections by 2025. (USDA) estimates that, by 2022, the world will Due to efforts on land restoration, organic have 840 million food insecure people, nearly half 19 farming, compost and manure, afforestation of which are expected to live in SSA. A combined and agroforestry, conditions in many parts effort of all concerned is essential to achieve food of Ethiopia have already begun to improve. security in this region. This paper suggests two com- For example, some of the most vulnerable prehensive approaches to food insecurity: woredas (districts) have registered up to a 40 • First is to support smallholder agricultural percent decline in soil erosion over the past development through an integrated set of two decades.16 systemic interventions intended to increase productivity, reduce post-harvest losses and • Market-based financial instruments to increase market access. mitigate risk: Ethiopia is also exploring market-based risk reduction tools to sup- • Second is to support rural communities, which port farmers transitioning from subsistence to are likely to be the most vulnerable to food

53 security issues, with the knowledge, tools and 12 The Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture and Rural products to become more resilient to unex- Development, 2010 pected shocks. 13 Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP): 2005/06-2009/10 and Growth Endnotes and Transformation Plan (GTP): 2010/11 – 2014/15 14 IFPRI - A meta-analysis of rates of return to agricultural 1 WFP, USAID, “Food Assistance Programming in the R&D, 2000 Context of HIV,” 2007 15 This is to be achieved through a combination of efforts 2 FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2012 ranging from development of modern warehouse sys- 3 OECD, 2004 tems to providing better access to market information, from promoting and implementing product grades 4 Fertilizer Market Information, IFPRI 2011 and standards to enforcing contracts and regulations.

5 Hengsdijk H and Langeveld, 2009 16 VLIR – Mekelle University IUC program, Zala-Daget project 6 AFDB, 2011 17 The Relief Society of Tigray (REST), Nyala Insurance 7 Mekonnen A. GTZ-Integrated Food Security Program Share Company, Dedebit Credit and Savings Institution 8 World Bank, 2012 (DECSI), Mekelle University, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Swiss 9 The Economist, 2012 Re, and eight other organizations. 10 Strategic Grain Reserve in Ethiopia, IFPRI 2012 18 Hobson H. and Campbell H. (www.theidlgroup.com) 11 CAADP was introduced in 2003, as part of a larg- 19 USDA, 2012. International Food Security Assessment er initiative, NEPAD (New Partnership for Africa’s 2012 to 2022. Development) with the objective of promoting agriculture

54 U.S. Health Engagement in Africa: A Decade of Remarkable Achievement. Now What?

J. Stephen Morrison, Ph.D. Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center Center for Strategic and International Studies

In the past decade, there has been a steep State Hillary Clinton’s determined efforts to cham- and historic expansion of U.S. health engage- pion women’s health and gender equality. ment in Africa, principally through the President’s Critical also has been an enduring and exception- Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the al bipartisan foundation in Congress, reinforced by a President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI). U.S. commit- relatively small, but vocal and resilient base of popu- ments to global health, of which over 70 percent is lar support in American society that encompasses directed to Africa, rose from $1.7 billion in FY2001 religious communities, universities, foundations, to $8.9 billion in FY2012.1 nongovernmental organizations, advocacy groups, This dramatic shift in U.S. foreign assistance— the private sector, and media. Congressional travel spurred by the “exceptionalism” of HIV/AIDS— to Africa to see firsthand the results of U.S. health has rested on a consensus that substantial U.S. partnerships has had powerful impacts on members investments in health in Africa do indeed advance personally and back home in discussions of U.S. U.S. interests. They fulfill American humanitarian policies and programs. values by saving and enhancing lives; they strength- A third vital factor has been the ability to mea- en health security against common and emerging sure and demonstrate significant concrete prog- threats; and they promote the stability and long- ress in improving the health status of millions of term development of vulnerable communities in individuals in Africa, and the surprising success in low-income countries.2 recent years in improving operational efficiencies, Over the past decade, several key factors account which made possible significant expansion of U.S. for the robust, sustained U.S. health engagement programs even as budgets flattened. To support 5.1 in Africa and the widely-held view that these U.S. million persons by early 2013 on life-sustaining anti- investments are a foreign assistance success story. retroviral treatment, the vast majority in Africa, up High-level U.S. leadership—by the president, from 50,000 a decade earlier; and to be on course most importantly—has been an essential ingredi- to reach 6 million by the end of 2013: these are ent. Witness the July 2013 appearances by both remarkable public health achievements. Similarly Presidents Obama and Bush in Tanzania, at which impressive claims can be made for the swift reduc- Obama lauded Bush’s landmark contributions to tions in malaria seen in Ethiopia, Zanzibar, Zambia, health in Africa; so too, the First Ladies’ Summit Tanzania and Rwanda. at which both Michelle Obama and Laura Bush There have of course been sharp critiques of the affirmed their commitments to advancing women’s U.S. approach: that it exaggerated, especially in the health in Africa, reinforcing former Secretary of early days of 2002-2003, the true threat HIV/AIDS

55 posed to the stability of nations; that U.S. programs third five-year reauthorization in 2013. Hence it are too vertical versus focused on essential health will be through alternative, more discrete actions— infrastructure; that the HIV/AIDS investments are appropriations language, congressional travel, tar- grossly outsized vis-à-vis other health priorities and geted resolutions—that Congress will address press- the financial capacities of partner countries; and ing policy challenges on health in Africa and help that they crowd out other worthy foreign assistance update the U.S. strategy for the future. concerns and create a long-term dependency— There are risks and uncertainties as we look a “mortgage” or “entitlement”—with no clear forward, but also opportunities for U.S. policy to end game. Debate has persisted over whether the continue to advance global health. United States is doing enough to reach with essential prevention services those highly marginalized It remains to be seen whether, in the midst of groups that are at high risk of HIV infection, e.g., budgetary austerity, a durable bipartisan congres- sex workers, men who have sex with men, and sional consensus can be successfully preserved in injection drug users. support of continued strong U.S. leadership on health and Africa. Congress made valuable contributions to U.S. leadership on health in Africa through two suc- Congress will also certainly be called upon to cessive five-year authorizations. The United States help define how—and with what level of long-term Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria resource commitments and what U.S. political Act of 2003 outlined a five-year, $15 billion emer- leverage—the United States can effectively build gency initiative focused on 14 (later 15) high- partner country capacities and facilitate real and burden countries, 12 in Africa, and established timely transitions to greater country ownership. It powerful authorities in a new Office of the Global remains to be seen whether in its interactions with AIDS Coordinator (OGAC). Appropriations from the more competent and able partner countries the Congress from 2003 to 2008 eventually reached United States can systematically scale back its high- $18.8 billion.3 cost delivery of services, without convulsive disrup- Congress subsequently passed the Tom Lantos and tions to the health of beneficiaries, and become Henry J. Hyde United States Global Leadership Against mainly a source of technical expertise; at the same HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Reauthorization time, it remains to be seen what transition strat- Act of 2008. This five-year $48 billion reauthori- egy the U.S. pursues with those partner countries zation called for a transition from an emergency which are poorer and have weaker capacities, and response to sustainable country programs. That in which the U.S. will be called upon for a longer shift, it was argued in the legislation, requires period to deliver programs and services. Progress in expanded efforts to strengthen partner government these critical areas depends of course on whether capacity—especially the training of skilled person- partner countries themselves can and will increas- nel—and a higher priority to winning greater coun- ingly take the lead in service delivery, financing, try ownership, e.g., higher political, financial and and managerial responsibility. At present, the pro- staff commitments. It requires expansion of preven- cess of transition, and how the United States is to tion, care and treatment programs; better integra- facilitate change, better manage its partnerships, tion and coordination of HIV/AIDS programs with and measure progress, are neither clearly under- other health and development programs; higher stood nor defined. There is a continued need for investments in innovation and operations research better data collection and evaluation; new, reliable to better evaluate impacts; and improvements in scorecards of country performance; and an updated service delivery to maximize outcomes.4 vision of U.S. goals, expectations and commitments Given the present acute polarization in Congress, for each of these transitions. which constrains action across countless fronts, In recent years, the United States has come there is a very low probability that there will be a to rely more and more on multilateral partners,

56 most importantly the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Additional detail by sector Tuberculosis and Malaria, but that change has happened with little discussion of what the desired specific balance should be between U.S. bilateral PEPFAR, HIV/AIDS, and the Global Fund programs like PEPFAR and PMI versus the Fund. The PEPFAR program, launched in 2003 by Similarly, in recent years the U.S. global health President George W. Bush, became the largest agenda in Africa has steadily broadened: there is and most successful U.S. global health initiative. today a far bigger emphasis on gender, maternal To date, the estimated cumulative U.S. spending health (including the often divisive issue of family overseas on HIV/AIDS is $44.3 billion, including planning), child survival, and polio (especially as contributions to the Global Fund. Outlays in 2012 regards Nigeria). But at present there is no coherent totaled $6.6 billion. delineation of U.S. priorities. Related to that, an The United States directly supports antiretrovi- important but quickly evolving debate has begun ral treatment for more than 5.1 million HIV posi- over noncommunicable diseases (diabetes, cancer, tive individuals as of September 30, 2012. This puts hypertension/heart disease, lung disorders), the the United States on track to reach a goal set by the behavioral, policy, and medical interventions to Obama administration to reach 6 million HIV posi- lower their rising incidence in Africa, and what the tive individuals by the end of 2013. In FY2012, the appropriate U.S. contribution in this area should be. United States also supported HIV counseling and One can argue, of course, that any revised, testing for more than 11 million pregnant women, updated global health strategy can and should 15 million people with care and support, and HIV rely heavily on executive branch leadership. But counseling and testing for 46.5 million people. experience to date has been disappointing and The International AIDS Conference— problematic. The Obama administration unveiled AIDS2012—returned to the United States, after a its Global Health Initiative (GHI) in the spring 22 year hiatus, in July 2012 in Washington D.C. of 2009 with a focus on seven valuable guiding A special session featuring Congressional lead- principles: a women- and girls-centered approach; ers—Senator Mike Enzi (R-WY), Senator Chris strategic coordination and integration of programs; Coons (D-DE), Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), and strengthening and leveraging key multilateral insti- Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA)—focused tutions and other partners; country-ownership; on the historical legacy and future trajectory of sustainability through health systems strengthen- Congressional involvement in addressing the global ing; improving metrics, monitoring and evalu- AIDS epidemic. ation; and promoting research and innovation. Operationally, GHI was charged with tackling At AIDS2012, there was considerable optimism fragmentation and tensions across competing U.S. surrounding recent scientific discoveries in the field agencies—most significantly, the U.S. Office of of HIV prevention: specifically, proof that early Global Aids Coordinator (OGAC) and the Centers antiretroviral treatment can significantly lower the for Disease Control (CDC) versus the U.S. Agency risks of new HIV infections, along with evidence that for International Development (USAID). In reality, male circumcision and prevention of transmission the GHI directorate never acquired the political from mothers to infants can also be highly effective sway, budgetary authority and staff capacity to ful- in reducing HIV incidence. In late November 2012, fill its mandate; interagency clashes often escalated the Obama administration released its Blueprint for in the first Obama term. The State Department’s an AIDS-Free Generation which laid out a detailed, Office of Global Health Diplomacy, established in impressive strategy for building systematically upon late 2012, is the designated heir to GHI. It remains these gains, but without budgeting costs or offering to be seen what its exact mission will be and if it is a game plan for financing the strategy. more successful than its predecessor.

57 The United States has entered a new phase of increased collaboration and coordination with the its global HIV/AIDS response where it has begun Global Fund. The United States remained a strong to transition PEPFAR support from direct service proponent of the Global Fund even as the Fund delivery to the provision of technical assistance. experienced considerable financial, managerial and Transitions will occur on a country-by-country governance adversity in 2011 and entered a period basis guided by framework agreements with partner of promising restructuring in 2012. 5 countries. This process has advanced in Botswana, The Fund operates on three-year funding cycles. 6 South Africa, and Namibia. However, there is no In 2010, the Obama administration announced a clear method to track progress and measure country three-year (FY2011-FY2013), $4 billion pledge to ownership. Part of this new phase also includes a the Global Fund which met with a mixed response transition to increased U.S. support to the Global from Congress. Current annual U.S. funding stands Fund. At present, how this shift will evolve into the at an all-time high of $1.65 billion. It remains to future has also not yet been clearly defined. be seen if the Obama administration commits to As part of the 2008 PEPFAR reauthorization, another formal three-year pledge, during the Fund’s the U.S. Congress tasked the Institute of Medicine 2013 replenishment cycle, or chooses instead to (IOM) to evaluate PEPFAR programs. Completed commit year-by-year. Given their budgetary woes, in February 2013, the IOM report was overwhelm- other major donors to the Fund (e.g., France, the ingly affirmative: “Since it was first authorized by UK, Japan, Germany, the Scandinavians, Canada, Congress in 2003, PEPFAR has saved and improved Australia) may not be able to reach twice the level of lives of millions; supported HIV prevention, care the U.S. contribution of $1.65 billion, which might and treatment; strengthened systems; and engaged perforce trigger a reduction of the U.S. contribution. with partner countries to facilitate HIV policy and planning. PEPFAR has expanded global expectations for what can be accomplished in partner coun- The President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) tries with resource constraints and limited infrastruc- PMI was launched in 2005 by President George ture.” The report also highlighted critical needs: to W. Bush as a 5-year $1.2 billion effort originally address unmet demand for HIV/AIDS services; targeting 15 African countries. Housed at USAID diversify financing; improve data collection and and co-implemented with CDC, in partnership with evaluation; improve access to prevention services by the Department of Defense (DOD), the National sex workers, injection drug users and men who have Institutes of Health (NIH) and other agencies, PMI sex with men; tackle HIV co-infection with TB; and aims to reduce malaria-related deaths by 50 percent.9 put in place a measurable gender strategy. U.S. bilateral funding for malaria totaled $3.6 The Global Fund began operations in January billion between FY2004-FY2011 and was approxi- 2002 as an independent, multilateral financing mately $806 million in FY2012. The Obama instrument to address HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis administration requested $775 million in FY2013, and malaria in low- and middle-income countries. a 4 percent decrease over the FY2012 level.10 To date, the Global Fund has approved more than The costs to Africa of malaria are steep. In 2010 $26 billion in grants to over 150 countries. The there were an estimated 660,000 malaria fatali- United States has played an integral role in the ties of which 91 percent occurred in Sub-Saharan Global Fund since its creation, providing the Fund Africa.11 Malaria is the third biggest killer of with its founding contribution and continuing to be children under five globally, with over 90 percent its single largest donor. U.S. contributions to the of malaria deaths occurring in Africa.12 Malaria Global Fund between FY2001 and FY2012 totaled imposes an estimated $12 billion in lost economic $8 billion.7 From the Fund’s inception, Congress output per year. Indirectly, Malaria is a leading has mandated that U.S. contributions be matched cause of school absence. A 2005 survey found that by other donors by at least a 2:1 ratio. nearly 75 percent of companies in Africa reported Over the last several years the United States has that malaria negatively affects their business.13

58 Increased funding and political support have to accelerate program implementation. In April resulted in big gains in malaria control. An external 2013, the IOM PEPFAR evaluation dedicated a evaluation conducted in 2011 detailed strong lead- section to PEPFAR’s gender-focused programs, ership, an effective integration of malaria control recommending the development of precise objec- interventions, solid procurement and host country tives with desired outcomes within gender-focused partnerships, and significant declines in malaria efforts. To ensure continued success of these pro- disease burden and child mortality.14 Delivered in grams the United States will need to maintain combination and on a dramatically expanded basis, high-level leadership and embed new policies into the principal tools for malaria control have brought USG agencies, better leverage the PEPFAR plat- about swift gains: investments in long-lasting insecti- form and existing funding to support research and cide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, intermit- programmatic investment in women and girls, shift tent prevention treatment for pregnant women, and to program implementation, and expand access to Artemisinin (antimalarial drug) combination thera- voluntary family planning and maternal health.16 pies delivered results in a relatively rapid fashion. Nonetheless, progress remains fragile; it can be Child Survival17 reversed swiftly if there is a loss of focus. In the During the first Obama administration, USAID meantime, several challenges are outstanding. For put child survival—in Africa and South Asia—at malaria control and elimination to succeed, bed the top of its health agenda. The importance of nets must be replaced every three years once insec- childhood vaccinations, the need to address neo- ticide loses potency and nets become worn, ripped, natal deaths, and the link between maternal health or torn. An inexpensive, rapid diagnostic to confirm and child survival came to the forefront. cases and prevent overuse of antimalarial drugs is needed. Drug and insecticide resistance need to In 2010, 7.6 million children died before the age be addressed. And there is need to better clarify of 5. This was a 35 percent reduction from the 12 the division of responsibility between PMI and the million children who died before the age of 5 in Global Fund. 1990. Much of this reduction can be attributed to progress in preventing pneumonia, diarrhea, and measles through vaccinations. Pneumonia, preterm Women’s Health birth complications, diarrhea, intrapartum-related Despite the often polarized atmosphere events, and malaria represent more than 50 percent in Washington, bipartisan successes have been of the global burden of under-5 mortality. Experts achieved in support of women’s health. The Bush stress the importance of addressing neo-natal com- administration’s PEPFAR program developed gen- plications which account for approximately 40 der strategies to reach women and girls, and the percent of child deaths globally. Progress has been Obama administration elevated women’s health unevenly distributed across regions, countries and and gender equality as a key foreign policy goal. population groups; and specific causes of mortality, New public-private partnerships are illustrating and national averages can mask important sub- innovative ways to maximize U.S. investments in national differences. women’s health and promote sustainability. The Ethiopia is an example of considerable recent Obama administration has participated in several progress in Africa. It launched its Health Extension such partnerships, including Together for Girls; the Program in 2004. Salaried health extension work- Alliance for Reproductive, Maternal and Newborn ers promote health education at household and Health; Pink Ribbon Red Ribbon (PRRR); and village levels, including preventive services in water Saving Mothers Giving Life (SMGL).15 and sanitation, child health, and family planning. With policies and strategies largely in place, the The program has reached significant scale since next step is to ensure that these policies are support- 2004, having trained 35,000 health workers and ed by political commitment and financial resources built 15,000 health posts. In this period, Ethiopia

59 has seen a decline in under-5 mortality from 123 Polio and Africa deaths/1,000 live births in 2005 to 88/1,000 in Nigeria is the last African country to harbor 2011, which constitutes an average annual rate of endemic polio. While polio cases globally were at decline of 5.4 percent. The percentage of under- a historic low in 2012, eliminating the virus from 5 stunting also was reduced by 14 percent during the country’s northern states, as well as in remain- the same period, while the percentage of married ing strongholds in Afghanistan and Pakistan, will women who use a modern contraception increased be a challenge.20 As long as the virus continues to by 93 percent.18 circulate anywhere, outbreaks are possible where The Child Survival Call to Action was convened immunization rates are low. This year, for example, in Washington, D.C., by Ethiopia, India, and the both Somalia and Kenya, previously polio-free, are grappling with new cases. In addition, poliovirus United States in collaboration with UNICEF in has been detected in sewer systems in Egypt and June 2012. At this conference, the United States Israel. launched its Commitment to Child Survival: A Promise Renewed. Eighty countries were rep- The presidents of Nigeria, Afghanistan, and resented at the conference by governments and Pakistan, along with the international community, are rallying behind a major push to finally eradicate partners. The conference set out a goal to reduce the disease. The World Health Organization-led child mortality to 20 or fewer child deaths per Global Polio Eradication Initiative, also spearhead- 1,000 live births by 2035. Fifty-six governments ed by UNICEF, CDC, and Rotary International, and over 100 civil society partners signed the pledge with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates and the first iteration of a global roadmap was Foundation, recently launched a six-year strategy to unveiled. Congressional participation at the Call end poliovirus transmission and plan the program’s to Action included Senator Johnny Isakson (R-GA) legacy. The $5.5 billion “Eradication and Endgame and Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA). Ethiopia and Strategic Plan” outlines responses to the initia- India hosted their own Calls to Action in January tive’s enduring challenges: intensified engagement and February 2013, respectively. with religious and community leaders to overcome Recognizing the importance of childhood vac- resistance to vaccination, facilitating provision of cination and the high return on investments in needed health services beyond polio immunization, vaccines, the United States has increased collabora- and using polio program resources to better support immunization for other childhood diseases. It also tion and engagement with the Global Alliance for begins laying the groundwork for a global switch Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI). GAVI began to a more appropriate vaccine for the later stages operations in January 2000 and by the end of 2010 of the eradication effort. Shorter, low-profile cam- had received over $5 billion in donor financing paigns and better risk analysis are being employed and disbursed $2.8 billion to support immunization to ward against further lethal extremist attacks on programs in 76 low- and middle-income countries. polio vaccinators in Nigeria and Pakistan. The United States is one of GAVI’s largest donors The U.S. government, along with Rotary providing 12.5 percent of all contributions through International and the Bill & Melinda Gates 2010. Obama has cited GAVI as an important Foundation, have been major supporters of polio multilateral partner for the United States, and in eradication, together providing nearly half of the 2011, the Obama administration made the first ever $10.8 billion pledged to the program through 2013. multiyear funding commitment to GAVI, pledging They also have contributed critical technical assis- $450 million over 3 years. The United States sits on tance, advocacy, and personnel. Without continued the GAVI Board and multiple advisory committees focus, a hard-fought opportunity to permanently and provides technical support and expertise.19 eliminate polio could be lost.

60 Aggregate Funding for Global Health

61 U.S. Funding for Global Health (FY 2001-FY 2014)

The President’s Global Health Budget Request by Sector, FY 2014

62 U.S. Global Health Funding, Percent Change by Sector (FY2012-FY2014)

U.S. Global Health Funding for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) (FY2004-FY2013*)

63 Total U.S. Bilateral Funding for Malaria (FY2001-FY2013*)

U.S. Funding for Global Maternal, Newborn & Child Health (MNCH) and Nutrition (FY2004-FY2013*)

64 Endnotes 10 Kaiser Family Foundation. “The Global Malaria Epidemic.” March 2013. Online: http://kff.org/glob- 1 In this same period, aggregate investments in global al-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-global-malaria-epidem- health—from all sources—rose from $10 billion in ic-4/. 2001 to $28 billion in 2010. 11 World Health Organization. “10 facts on malaria.” 2 Morrison, J. Stephen et al. Global Health Policy in the March 2013. Online: http://www.who.int/features/ Second Obama Term. Washington, D.C.: Center for factfiles/malaria/en/. Strategic and International Studies. February 2013. 12 The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). Print and online: https://csis.org/files/publica- “Malaria Prevention.” 2013. Online: http://www. tion/130214_Morrison_GHTransitionVolume_Web_ unicefusa.org/work/malaria/ FINAL.pdf 13 Roll Back Malaria. “Business Investing in Malaria 3 Kaiser Family Foundation. “Fact Sheet: The U.S. Control: Economic Returns and a Healthy Workforce President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).” for Africa.” May 2011. Online: http://www.rbm.who. March 2013. Online: http://kaiserfamilyfoundation. int/ProgressImpactSeries/report6.html. files.wordpress.com/2013/04/8002-05.pdf . 14 Jonathan Simon, Kojo Yeboa-Antwi, Allan Schapira, 4 Office of the U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator. “About Mohammadou Kabir Cham., Rosemary Barber- PEPFAR.” 2011. Accessed: July 2013. Online: http:// Madden, and Mohamad Ibrahim Brooks, External www.pepfar.gov/about/. Evaluation of the President’s Malaria Initiative Final Report, 5 Stash, Sharon et al. Competing Pressures for U.S. Washington, D.C.: USAID, 2011. PEPFAR in Botswana: Rising Ambitions, Declining 15 CSIS led a delegation of congressional staff to Zambia Resources. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and in March 2013 to examine the successes and chal- International Studies. November 2012. Print and lenges of two of these partnerships—SMGL and PRRR. online: http://csis.org/files/publication/121128_ A trip report outlines recommendations to engage Stash_PEPFARBotswana_Web.pdf. high-level leadership from congressional leaders from 6 Morrison, J. Stephen et al. The Future of the U.S.-South both political parties and from the Obama administra- Africa HIV/AIDS Partnership: Trip Report of the CSIS tion to prioritize women’s health, protect and expand Delegation to South Africa, January 2013. Washington, U.S. investments in this area, measure the impact of D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies. new partnerships, invest where progress is being made, March 2013. Print and online: https://csis.org/files/ and plan for scale and sustainability of programs. See: publication/130313_Morrison_SouthAfricaHIV_Web. Fleischman, Janet and Alisha Kramer. Strengthening pdf. Investments in Women’s Global Health: A Trip Report of the CSIS Delegation to Zambia, March 2013. Washington, 7 Kaiser Family Foundation. “Fact Sheet: The U.S. & The D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.” May 2013. Print and online: https://csis.org/files/ March 2013. Online: http://kff.org/global-health- publication/130521_Fleischman_ZambiaDelegation_ policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-the-global-fund-to-fight-aids- Web.pdf. tuberculosis-and-malaria/. 16 On a global scale, women’s health issues have received 8 Morrison, J. Stephen, and Todd Summers. Righting growing attention. The July 2012 London Summit on the Global Fund. February 2012. Print and online: Family Planning convened more than 150 leaders from https://csis.org/files/publication/120227_Morrison_ developing and donor countries, international agen- RightingGlobalFund_Web.pdf. cies, civil society, foundations and the private sector. Donors made new financial commitments totaling $2.6 9 Kaiser Family Foundation. “The Global Malaria billion with a goal to provide an additional 120 mil- Epidemic.” March 2013. Online: http://kff.org/glob- lion women and girls in the world’s poorest countries al-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-global-malaria-epidem- access to voluntary family planning services, informa- ic-4/. tion, and supplies by 2020. http://www.londonfamily- planningsummit.co.uk/fp2020more.php.

65 17 United States Agency for International Development 19 Kaiser Family Foundation. “The U.S. & the GAVI (USAID) et al. Child Survival Call to Action: Ending Alliance.” December 2011. Online: http://kff.org/ Preventable Child Deaths Summary Roadmap Version 1. global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-and-the-gavi- June 2012. Online: http://5thbday.usaid.gov/pages/ alliance/. responsesub/roadmap.pdf. 20 Bristol, Nellie. The U.S. Role in Global Polio Eradication. 18 Morrison, J. Stephen and Suzanne Brundage. Advancing Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and Health in Ethiopia. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic International Studies. December 2012. Print and and International Studies. June 2012. Print and online: online: https://csis.org/files/publication/121217_ https://csis.org/files/publication/120605_Morrison_ Bristol_USRolePolio_Web.pdf AdvancingHealthEthiopia_Web.pdf.

66 Africa’s Emergence: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S.

PARTICIPANTS

August 13-19, 2013 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Members of Congress Representative Erik Paulsen and Cassandra Paulsen Representative Karen Bass Representative Thomas Petri and Yvette Lechuga Representative David Price Representative Earl Blumenauer and Lisa Price and Margaret Kirkpatrick Representative Bobby Rush Representative Jim Cooper Representative Loretta Sanchez and Martha Cooper and Martha Cannady Representative Susan Davis Representative Janice Schakowsky and Steven Davis and Robert Creamer Representative Diana DeGette Representative John Tierney and Francesca Lipinsky and Patrice Tierney Representative Charles Dent and Pamela Dent Representative Lloyd Doggett Guest Speakers and Elizabeth Doggett Donald Booth Representative Anna Eshoo U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia and Celine Purcell Representative Sam Farr Tedros Ghebreyesus and Sharon Farr Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs Representative John Garamendi and Patricia Garamendi Representative Scott Garrett Scholars/Experts and MaryEllen Garrett Khalid Bomba Senator Thomas Harkin Chief Executive Officer and Ruth Harkin Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency Representative Barbara Lee Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Memuna Lee Representative Zoe Lofgren Gordon Conway and John Collins Chair, International Development Representative Carolyn Maloney Imperial College, London and Christina Bosher Representative George Miller Jennifer Cooke and Cynthia Miller Director, Africa Program Center for Strategic and International Studies

67 Mark Green Katy Button President, Initiative for Global Development Policy and External Relations Officer Former U.S. Ambassador to Tanzania Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Carrie Hessler-Radelet Barry Lowenkron Acting Director Vice President, International Programs Peace Corps John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

Carol Lancaster Haddis Tadesse Dean, School of Foreign Service Country Representative for Ethiopia Georgetown University Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Sarah Margon Aspen Institute Staff Acting Washington Director Human Rights Watch Dan Glickman Vice President Stephen Morrison Executive Director, Congressional Program Senior Vice President Director, Global Health Policy Center Bill Nell Center for Strategic and International Studies Deputy Director, Congressional Program

Ali Mufuruki Carrie Rowell Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Conference Director, Congressional Program Infotech Investment Group Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Doug Farrar Congressional Associate, Congressional Program Dele Olojede Publisher Pat Walton NEXT newspaper Program Coordinator, Congressional Program Lagos, Nigeria Adele Simmons Steven Radelet Congressional Program Advisory Committee Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Development Peace Corps Volunteers Georgetown University Brendan Boland Connie Veillette Joshua Cook Senior Fellow Yata Doe The Lugar Center Justin Donnelley Ronny Escobar Andrew Gamble Foundation Representatives Karen Hendrickson Kelly Born Seth Kammer Fellow, Special Projects Jennifer Klein The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation DT Simmon Alicia Smith Berdette Wymer

68 Africa’s Emergence: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S.

AGENDA

August 13-19, 2013 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

U.S. Strategic Interests in Africa and Political Developments Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) comprises 49 diverse countries with their own histories, levels of economic and political development, cultures and languages. The region is viewed as one of growing strategic interest by the United States, Europe, China, Russia, and numerous other countries for its oil, mineral resources, and land. On security issues, SSA poses a number of challenges in the form of civil wars, border conflicts, terrorist activities, and pirating, that has prompted the United States to form a new military command—AFRICOM. • What are the United States’ strategic interests in Africa? • What is the role of AFRICOM and what has been its reception? • What are the current conflicts and possible outcomes/consequences for the United States? • How severe is the threat of extremist Islamic movements and what is the international or U.S. role? • What are the interests of China, Russia, and others in SSA and how are they manifested either in conflict or in cooperation with U.S. goals? • How significant are conflicts in the Congo and movements such as the Lord’s Resistance Army; and what responsibility, if any, does the international community have? • What level of involvement does the U.S. have in multilateral peacekeeping operations based in Africa? • How does AFRICOM work with civilian, diplomatic, and development agencies to support U.S. foreign policy objectives? Carol Lancaster, Dean, School of Foreign Service Georgetown University

U.S. Relations with Ethiopia Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa with a population of 86 million people in 2013. It is a federal parliamentary republic although it is criticized for having democracy deficits in the form of limitations on press freedoms, human rights, and the level of government control of the private sector. Nonetheless, its economy is one of the fastest growing on the continent and it has been a key U.S. ally in the Horn of Africa. The country faces a number of challenges in the form of low agricultural productivity and frequent droughts that affect food security, health issues including HIV/AIDS, and poverty. Addis is a major African hub with a number of headquarters for international companies and regional political organizations. Remarks by Donald Booth, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia

69 Policy Concerns in Africa: An Ethiopian Perspective Remarks by Tedros Ghebreyesus, Foreign Minister of Ethiopia

Africa’s Economic Development: The Role of Aid, Trade and Business Despite a faltering global economy over the last several years, SSA has experienced record annual growth rates exceeding 5%. Many major U.S. companies see the continent as a growth market and are making significant developments there. Yet, hurdles to building a robust business climate remain—largely in the form of corruption, infrastructure deficits, regulatory burdens and a poorly-educated workforce. The United States allocates approximately $8 billion each year throughout Africa for programs focused on health, food security, and governance. (The largest recipients of aid are Kenya, Ethiopia, and Nigeria.) The United States is currently discussing a trade partnership agreement with the East Africa Community that some see as a model for future U.S.-Africa trade relations. Several countries are on track to meet the Millennium Development Goals of halving rates of poverty and hunger by 2015. • With impressive growth rates, how necessary is U.S. foreign assistance? • To what extent, or when, can other forms of cooperation—in the form of trade and investment—sup- plant assistance? • What has been the role of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in supporting development in Africa? What are its current limitations? • How does the United States support political and economic environments that are conducive to U.S. business investments? • Despite the noted progress and promising signs for the future, what are the current bottlenecks in Africa’s development? Steven Radelet, Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Development Georgetown University

The Future of the Peace Corps in Africa in the 21st Century and Introduction of Peace Corps Volunteers Posted in Ethiopia Carrie Hessler-Radelet, Acting Director, Peace Corps

Global Competition from China and Others for Africa’s Resources Press reports and other analyses point to the growing interest of China, Gulf States, and other countries in Africa’s varied resources. In some instances this manifests itself in so-called “land grabs” in which foreign enti- ties seek to purchase or rent on a long-term basis vast tracks of land (and its water resources) for agricultural production to be exported back to the investing country. Such arrangements are believed to include minimal benefits to citizens of the hosting country and are vulnerable to corrupt practices. Other nations see the continent as an important source of oil and minerals and are making investments accordingly. China has been particularly active in recent years—at least one report estimates development assistance at approximately $75 billion from 2000 to 2011—with investments focused in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Sudan.

70 • What are China’s objectives in Africa, and what is the relevance to the U.S.? • How do land grabs affect agricultural development? What are their impacts on smallholder farmers and their access to land and water? How extensive is this practice and what are the implications for the continent? • To what extent does Africa’s abundance of certain minerals drive the interests of some foreign countries? Do these activities reinforce a “resource curse”? Jennifer Cooke, Director, Africa Program Center for Strategic and International Studies Ali Mufuruki, Chairman, Infotech Investment Group, Dar es Salaam

The State of Democracy, Human Rights and Religious Freedom in Africa Democracy has become the norm in SSA, with the majority of African governments being fully or nominally democratic. Just two decades ago, perhaps only three African countries could be considered democracies. Despite this progress, a number of governments score poorly on Freedom House’s index of political freedoms. These democracy deficits include limitations on the press, political organizations, and electoral transparency. Ethnic and religious tensions form part of the African landscape with its diversity of tribes, religions and Islamic movements. The 2013 report by the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) identified three countries—Nigeria, Eritrea and Sudan—in SSA on its Tier 1, representing “systemic, ongoing and egregious violations.” It identified Ethiopia as a country being closely monitored but not on its Tier 1 or 2 lists. • To what extent should U.S. assistance be tied to the forms of governance, standards of human rights and religious freedom? • What types of programs does the United States conduct that promote democracy and good governance in SSA? • How does the African Union and Africa’s regional economic communities support the movement toward stronger democracies and respect for human rights and religious freedoms? • To what extent are elections in most African countries considered free and fair? • What types of sanctions have the United States imposed as a result of USCIRF designations? • What should U.S. policy be in countries that lack democratic principles, or rank low in regard to human rights and tolerance of religious freedom? Sarah Margon, Acting Washington Director, Human Rights Watch Mark Green, former U.S. Ambassador to Tanzania President, Initiative for Global Development Dele Olojede, Publisher, NEXT newspaper, Lagos

Food Security: Implications for Africa and the World It is estimated that the global population will grow to more than nine billion people by 2050, putting increasingly difficult demands on farmers to meet growing and changing demands of wealthier consumers. Africa’s agricultural development has been stagnant for several decades. Severe weather events, soil erosion, deforestation, pressures on water resources, and bad governance have produced some of the world’s worst

71 humanitarian crises and high levels of chronic hunger. The United States has committed significant resources to promote food security and agricultural development in Africa, and African countries have made similar commitments to raising productivity. The United States also provides the World Food Program with significant assistance to respond to humanitarian crises. • What is the extent of food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa and what are the trends for the future? • Is the era of African famines a plague of the past? • With the current rate of investments by donors and African governments, when will significant progress begin to be seen with regard to food security? • What is sustainable intensification? What is the relationship between agricultural and economic growth? • Does Africa export commodities to the United States? What are barriers to agricultural exports to the United States, Europe, and within the continent? • What are African attitudes toward genetically modified technology and why is this relevant to U.S. interests or to global food security? • How does U.S. food aid help to alleviate acute and chronic hunger in Africa? Gordon Conway, Chair in International Development, Imperial College, London Khalid Bomba, Chief Executive Officer, Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency

Health Priorities in Africa and the U.S. Role At the height of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, SSA was considered the poster child of bad practices with regard to disease management and treatment. Since the President’s Emergency Plan for HIV/AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), prevalence rates have stabilized and declined in some areas, and effective treatment has extended lives. African countries are increasingly taking on a greater role in prevention and treatment with some observers urging wealthier countries, such as South Africa, to be transitioned off PEPFAR funds. Other diseases, such as malaria, continue to pose considerable problems. Malnutrition plagues many parts of the country that suffer from food insecurity, and the prevention of stunting through better nutrition in the first 1,000 days of life has become a major focus of efforts. At the same time, obesity is becoming more prevalent as wealthier populations adopt a more western-style diet and sedentary lifestyle. • Given the investments the United States has made with PEPFAR funds, what are the prospects for transitioning recipient countries to other forms of health cooperation? • Have U.S. programs helped to build the capacity of recipient countries to provide for the health needs of their citizens? • How do food security and nutrition programs connect with broader health issues in most African countries? • From the Ebola virus experience, Africa is perceived to be an incubator for global pandemics. Is this perception warranted and, if so, what is the responsibility of the international community? • What role do U.S. institutions such as the Centers for Disease Control have in Africa? • What are the remaining challenges that Africa faces in the years ahead? Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center Center for Strategic and International Studies