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MALE-Drone Proliferation in Europe: Assessing the Status Quo Regarding Acquisition, Research and Development, and Employment

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MALE-Drone Proliferation in Europe: Assessing the Status Quo Regarding Acquisition, Research and Development, and Employment MALE-Drone Proliferation in Europe WORKING PAPER #21 November 2018 WORKING PAPER #21 November 2018 MALE-Drone Proliferation in Europe: Assessing the Status Quo Regarding Acquisition, Research and Development, and Employment Johanna Polle Interdisciplinary Research Group on Disarmament, Arms Control and Risk Technologies Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg/ InterdisciplinaryInstitute Re forsearch Peace ResearchGroup on and Disarmament Security Policy, atArms the University Control andof Hamburg Risk Technologies Beim Schlump 83, 20144 Hamburg, Deutschland Tel: +49 40 866 077-0 - Fax: +49 40 866 36 15 MALE-Drone Proliferation in Europe Table of Contents Summary .................................................................................................................................... 3 Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. 4 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 5 II. Possession and Procurement .................................................................................................. 6 III. Building a European Drone Capability .............................................................................. 16 IV. Missions and Experiences .................................................................................................. 21 V. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 25 References ................................................................................................................................ 27 MALE-Drone Proliferation in Europe Summary § Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drones are steadily proliferating in Europe. Currently, four European states are operating MALE-drones: The United Kingdom (UK), France, Italy, and Germany. Three of these are expanding their existing fleets (UK, France, Italy), and two are arming their previously unarmed aircraft (Italy, France). Six additional states are in the process of initially acquiring different models of unarmed platforms (Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Poland, and Greece). § Seeking more strategic autonomy from extra-European suppliers, European states are building up an indigenous European MALE-drone capability. Currently there are two multinational R&D and production programs, the nEUROn (France, Italy, Sweden, Spain, Switzerland, and Greece) and the European MALE Remotely Piloted Air System (RPAS) (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), and two bilateral ones, both called Future Combat Air Systems (UK-France and France-Germany). Furthermore, there are knowledge sharing initiatives, such as the European MALE RPAS User Community consisting of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, and Greece. § France’s domestic use of its retired Harfang drones indicates that flying MALE-drones in the European civil airspace is no longer unthinkable. § Four European countries have been employing MALE-drones abroad for surveillance purposes (UK, France, Italy, and Germany). Since the first employment about a decade ago, they have operated in over eight countries mainly located in conflict zones in the Middle East, South Asia, and Northern Africa. European MALE-drone employment predominantly takes place within counterterrorism operations, but Italy has demonstrated their use within the scope of peacekeeping, border control, anti-piracy, and evacuation missions. § Only the UK currently carries out drone strikes, not only in Afghanistan but, since 2014, also in Iraq and Syria, countries, which have not been officially declared as warzones. The other three European MALE-drone states exclusively use unarmed platforms to carry out intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) tasks. § It can be expected that more European militaries will use armed MALE-drones to attack targets in the future. Soon, three main defense players – the UK, France, and Italy – will have armed drones. Moreover, out of the six states currently seeking to acquire unarmed MALE-drones only the Swiss government has strictly ruled out the possibility of arming them in the future. § Europe is facing a crossroad in drone affairs. It must decide if it will “slide” into the American approach to drone strike policy or create a European arms control regime, including employment standards. Right now, there is a momentum for intensifying EU defense cooperation, presenting a window of opportunity for taking respective action and establishing an arms control regime for armed MALE-drones. 3 MALE-Drone Proliferation in Europe Abbreviations CDA Christian Democratic Appeal CDU Christian Democratic Union EADS European Aeronautic Defence and Space EDA European Defence Agency EDF European Defence Fund EU European Union EUNAVOR European Union Naval Force FCAS Future Combat Air System GA General Atomics IAI Israel Aerospace Industries IEDs Improvised Explosive Devices IL Israel ISAF International Security Assistance Force ISIL Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant ISR Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance ISTAR Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Target Acquisition KM/H Kilometers per hour KN Knots LB Pounds MALE Medium Altitude Long Endurance MINUSMA Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission of the UN in Mali MOD British Ministry of Defence NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization PESCO Permanent Structured Cooperation PVV Party for Freedom R&D Research and Development RPAS Remotely Piloted Air System SPD Social Democrat Party UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UCAV Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle UK United Kingdom UN United Nations US United States 4 MALE-Drone Proliferation in Europe I. Introduction As unmanned aerial military vehicles (UAVs), commonly called drones, continue to pro- liferate throughout the world, they also increasingly diffuse into Europe, where investments in research and development (R&D) and the acquisition of UAVs, even armed ones, are steadily rising. Multiple international defense experts, including Sarah Kreps, Jean-Baptiste J. Vilmer, and Gen. Dino Tricarico, have claimed that Europe is very late in developing its own military drone capability.1 Now, many European decision-makers seem determined to catch up as in- dicated by, among other things, recent defense collaboration efforts, such as the creation of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the launch of a multi-billion European Defence Fund. A large proportion of these initiatives are concerned with models with medium altitude and long endurance (MALE), because they are technologically more sophisticated and widely regarded as more powerful than military UAVs with a low altitude and short to medium endurance. That is why this report will focus on the MALE-drone category. Advocates often praise their remote operation, which protects the operators, the real-time intelligence picture, the long flight hours, and precision targeting. European countries have used MALE-drones in diverse scenarios, but most frequently in counterinsurgency or counter- terrorism operations and predominantly for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) roles. The UK has also carried out drone strikes. At the moment, the UK is still the only European country with armed MALE-drones (unmanned combat aerial vehicles, UCAVs), but other European policy-makers have recently begun to explore this option as well. So far, many European states have primarily been occupied with the question of how to get (armed) MALE-drones and in what scenarios to use them, neglecting the possible security implications of such a move. The ongoing proliferation of UAVs poses risks to international security, including destabilizing arms races and a potential for misuse, for example by violent non-state actors. Moreover, UAVs could be a gateway for adopting increasingly automated, or, someday, even autonomous, unmanned military systems of various kinds (water, ground, air). Given these possible implications, a 2014 resolution by the European Union (EU) called to “include armed drones in relevant European and international disarmament and arms control regimes”,2 but since then not much has happened. This report contributes a comprehensive overview of the proliferation of armed and unarmed MALE-drones in Europe, intended for policy-makers, scholars, and the general public interested in this subject. Due to the swift diffusion of military drones and the rapid techno- logical developments, staying up to date can prove difficult; an endeavor further complicated by military secrecy and the disarray of publicly available information one finds in the news 1 Sarah Kreps, "What to Make of France’s Move to Arm Its American-Made Reaper Drones," World Politics Review, 19 September 2017, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/23173/what-to-make-of-france-s- move-to-arm-its-american-made-reaper-drones; Jean-Baptiste J. Vilmer, "A Perspective on France," in Proliferated Drones (Washington DC: Center for a New American Security, 2016); Gen. Dino Tricarico, head of the Italian think tank ICSA cited in Tom Kington, "Italy Wins US State Dept. OK To Arm Its Reapers," DefenseNews, 05 November 2015, https://www.defensenews.com/air/2015/11/05/italy-wins-us-state-dept-ok-to- arm-its-reapers/; Jean-Yves Le Drian, "Pourquoi l’Armée Française a un Besoin Urgent de Drones," Les Echos, 31 May
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