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PDF | State Legislatures Magazine Election Wrapup ELECTION 2016 Moving Ahead Legislatures cruised through the anything but ho-hum election largely unchanged. BY TIM STOREY fter a tumultuous and bitter remain in the driver’s seat of state policy- presidential campaign, with two making for at least two more years. Repub- of the most disliked candidates licans even nudged up the tally of legisla- A in recent history, voters sent a tures under their complete control from 30 powerful message to politicians: Major to 32—the most in party history. And now change must come to Washington. And, they have a completely Republican govern- they were willing to give Donald Trump, ment in Washington to work with as well. who often declared it was time to “drain the swamp,” the chance to do just that. Their The Numbers, Please message to state legislatures, however, was Even though Trump claimed a solid win more like: Stay the course! in the Electoral College, Hillary Clinton Clearly, many voters were fed up with appears to have narrowly edged him in the politics, mad at politicians and disgusted popular vote tally. It was a very, very close with the campaign, which one focus group election at the top of the ticket. Reflecting described as “garbage,” says Amy Wal- that, Trump had meager coattails in leg- ter, national editor for The Cook Political islative races. Republicans netted about Report and frequent panelist for Fox, PBS 40 seats nationwide, marking the second and NBC. smallest gain in legislatures by a winning But how wide and how deep that anger president’s party since 1900. It should be goes is unclear. Voters left the overall parti- noted that on eight occasions, presidential san landscape in state legislatures relatively candidates had no proverbial coattails and divided legislatures fell to three, marking unchanged. Only eight chambers shifted lost legislative seats despite winning the the lowest number of split legislatures since party control—well below the average flip White House. 1944. of 12 per election cycle. And the turnover At press time, the partisan control of All told, that’s 48 states because of New rate of legislative seats was just about aver- the New York Senate was undetermined, York’s undecided race and Nebraska’s non- age, at 25 percent. Furthermore, party con- because the race between John Brooks (D) partisan, single-chamber legislature. Repub- trol of states, legislatures, chambers and and incumbent Michael Venditto (R) was licans now have the majority in 66 cham- seats hardly moved. too close to call and a recount looked inev- bers, Democrats in 30 and the Connecticut In sum, it was a low-change, almost itable. Excluding that district, Democrats Senate is tied at 18-18. Legislative seat totals average election in the states. and Republicans each won 31 seats in the tell the same story. When sessions gavel in, That was undoubtedly a relief for GOP chamber. The partisan tallies below do not more than 4,160 Republican legislators will legislative leaders who only weeks before reflect the Empire State Senate, though take the oath of office, holding 57.1 percent Election Day feared major losses. States most observers of Albany politics expect of all seats. That’s the most the party has have been under historically high GOP that the chamber will continue to be led by held since the 1920 election. dominance for the past two years and, a coalition of Republicans and a splinter Michael Steele, former head of the despite playing mostly defense throughout group of Democrats known as the Inde- Republican National Committee, believes the long campaign season, the party will pendent Democratic Conference. it’s important for his party to keep win- When sessions open in 2017, Republi- ning in the states. “You can only sustain Tim Storey is the director of State Services at NCSL. cans will control both legislative chambers national success from the bottom,” he says. Daniel Diorio, a policy specialist at NCSL, contributed to in 32 states, and Democrats will control “Until 2010, the emphasis was always the this article. both chambers in 13 states. The number of other way around.” DECEMBER 2016 10 STATE LEGISLATURES ELECTION 2016 BEFORE Control of Legislative Chambers Before the election, Republicans controlled both legislative chambers in 30 states, Democrats controlled both chambers in 12 states and control was split in seven states. Republican Democrat Split Nonpartisan Popular Democratic Party RI DC PR VI GU MP AS Source: NCSL AFTER Control of Legislative Chambers Republicans now control both legislative chambers in 32 states, while Democrats control both in 13 states. Control is split between chambers in only three states, the lowest number in almost 70 years. New York election results were still undecided as of Nov. 14, 2016. Republican Democrat Split Nonpartisan Not decided Under New Management Despite GOP gains, Democrats had a few bright spots in the elections this year, especially in southwestern states where strong Latino turnout helped them capture three chambers. In Nevada, both chambers RI DC moved to the Democrats’ column. Silver PR State Democrats picked up one seat in the VI Senate to take the majority back, 11-10. In GU the Assembly, Democrats gained a 27-15 MP AS majority. Source: NCSL For the first time in Nevada’s history, both bodies of the Legislature will be led by African-Americans. Senator Aaron Ford was chosen by his peers to be the new majority leader, and the Assembly selected since Republicans had controlled the Ken- The new House speaker will be Jeff Hoover. Jason Frierson as the new speaker. tucky House. Democrats have run the Blue- Matt Walter, president of the Republi- In neighboring New Mexico, Democrats grass State House for the past 94 years. But can State Leadership Committee, described won back the House, which they lost in not anymore. Trump did extremely well in the GOP gains in Kentucky as a big prize 2014, and will now control the body 38-32. Kentucky, helping Republicans gain a siz- for the party, calling it “the culmination It had been far longer than two years able majority in the House—64 of 100 seats. of what we’ve seen growing in the states STATE LEGISLATURES 11 DECEMBER 2016 ELECTION 2016 since at least 2010.” It was clear to him that Partisan Control of State Legislatures voters wanted “change and solutions from 40 their state capitols, where they supported Republican Democrat Split conservative leadership.” With their victory in the Kentucky 35 House, Republicans finalized a 26-year takeover of Southern legislatures. All 30 30 legislative chambers in the South are now in GOP hands, a complete reversal from 25 1992, when every chamber in the South was under Democratic control. Nearly two-thirds of all state legislators in the 20 South belong to the Republican party. Republicans also took over the Iowa 15 Senate for the first time in a decade, mak- States Number of ing it one of the 24 states where the party 10 now controls all of state government. Iowa was another state where Trump performed 5 well, and is the state with the highest per- centage of working-class white voters who were key to the president-elect’s success. 0 1912 1916 1972 1976 1952 1932 1924 1956 1936 1992 2012 1928 1996 1920 2016 1964 1944 1968 1984 1948 1988 1960 1904 1940 1980 1908 1900 2004 2008 Among the bigger surprises in the elec- 2000 tion was the flip of the Minnesota Sen- Election Years ate. Republicans will have a narrow 34-33 advantage when the chamber convenes. cut, where Republicans garnered an 18-18 The Delaware Senate will also be tied, The Minnesota Senate has become one tie in the Senate, which has been controlled but not until a vacancy occurs in early of the most competitive chambers in the by Democrats since 1996. Democrats look January when Senator Bethany Hall-Long nation in recent years, changing hands in to have the advantage in the chamber (D) must resign to become the First State’s three of the last four elections. because tie votes are broken by the lieu- new lieutenant governor. At that point, the Another stunner occurred in Connecti- tenant governor, a Democrat. chamber will be tied 10-10 until a special election is held within 45 days. In Washington, Democrats look like they have control of the Senate 25-24. But Senator Tim Sheldon (D) plans to side once again with Republicans in a coalition to run the body. NCSL counts the state as Democratic because there is a numeric majority of Democrats, but in actuality it is divided because of the coalition. In Alaska, Democrats will benefit from a coalition to lead the House despite hav- ing only 17 seats in the 40-member cham- ber. Two Republicans and two indepen- dents joined forces with the minority party to elect Representative Bryce Edgmon (D) as the new speaker. Although it was a disappointing year for the Democratic Party, Jessica Post, execu- tive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, was pleased with the developments in Alaska and with other party gains in Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, New Hampshire, Texas and Wyoming. “These down-ballot victo- DECEMBER 2016 12 STATE LEGISLATURES ELECTION 2016 ries were a bright spot for Democrats in the 2016 elections,” she says. Women Stalled Below 25 Percent The brightest spot for the party may be Hawaii. Democrats now hold every seat in Election Day did not turn out to be the historic event for women many may have the Senate. It has been decades since either expected. Even at the state level, women’s representation will be virtually unchanged.
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