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Berjaya Food (BFD MK) November 10, 2015 Berjaya Food (BFD MK) Share Price: MYR2.56 MCap (USD): 220M Malaysia Target Price: MYR3.10 (+21%) ADTV (USD): 0.2M Consumer Disc. BUY (Unchanged) Initiation Key Data | More bang for (Star)bucks 52w high/low (MYR) 3.30/1.98 Largest listed F&B outlet operator in Malaysia by market cap . 3m avg turnover (USDm) 0.2 with forecast three-year net profit CAGR of 30%. Free float (%) 35.6 . Growth underpinned by BStarbucks, which targets 100 new Issued shares (m) 375 outlets over next four years (+11% pa). Market capitalization MYR960.2M RESEARCH . Initiative coverage with a BUY and MYR3.10 TP; total return Major shareholders: is 23% with CY16 net yield of 1.6%. -Berjaya Corp. Bhd. 52.2% -UBS A/G London 5.4% Tip of the iceberg for BStarbucks -Albizia ASEAN 4.9% Berjaya Starbucks (BStarbucks), owner of the largest coffee chain COMPANY in Malaysia, is poised to lift Berjaya Food’s forward revenues to Share Price Performance 3.40 300 new highs as it plans to open 100 more Starbucks in Malaysia or 25 3.20 280 outlets pa from FY16-FY19 (end-FY15: 193 outlets). This will lift its 3.00 260 2.80 240 revenue contribution to Berjaya Food to 70-73% in FY16-18E from 2.60 220 2.40 200 57% in FY15. The coffee company also plans to widen its beverage 2.20 180 business and tap new markets by entering the FMCG segment by 2.00 160 1.80 140 end-FY16. In the meantime, BStarbucks continues to leverage on 1.60 120 1.40 100 its prominent branding and market leader position (43% market 1.20 80 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 share) to drive topline growth. Berjaya Food - (LHS, MYR) Berjaya Food / Kuala Lumpur Composite Index - (RHS, %) Elsewhere, Berjaya Food is expanding its regional foothold via Kenny Rogers Roasters and Jollibean outlets, and we do not rule 1 Mth 3 Mth 12 Mth out future M&A involving parent co. Berjaya Corp’s F&B brands. Absolute(%) 12.8 12.8 (16.9) Relative to index (%) 14.1 10.7 (9.9) Attractive valuations backed by strong growth We forecast Berjaya Food to achieve a three-year core net profit Maybank vs Market CAGR of 29.5% (FY15-FY18), largely driven by BStarbucks, which Positive Neutral Negative contributes 86% of FY16E EBIT. We like Berjaya Food as a growth Market Recs 5 0 0 stock, backed by its major expansion plans and new markets Maybank Consensus % +/- potential (i.e. FMCG and concept stores). Current valuation of Target Price (MYR) 3.10 3.10 0.0 23.4x CY16 FD PER is decent versus the domestic consumer sector '16 PATMI (MYRm) 33 39 (14.8) average of 18.6x and Starbucks Corp’s (US) 32x given its anticipated rapid earnings growth relative to the consumer sector’s '17 PATMI (MYRm) 46 49 (7.0) Source: FactSet; Maybank tepid two-year growth of 4%. Current valuation implies a CY16 PEG of just 0.79x. Initiate at BUY with a MYR3.10 TP pegged to 22.5x CY17 FD PER (implies CY16 PEG of 0.96x). FYE Apr (MYR m) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenue 150.4 376.8 531.5 607.5 693.2 EBITDA 14.6 213.7 75.3 93.6 108.3 Core net profit 22.7 25.7 33.3 45.8 55.8 Core FDEPS (sen) 7.0 6.8 8.8 12.0 14.7 Core FDEPS growth(%) 18.8 (2.4) 29.1 37.3 21.9 Net DPS (sen) 3.2 4.3 3.3 4.6 5.6 Core FD P/E (x) 36.8 37.7 29.2 21.3 17.5 P/BV (x) 4.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 Net dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.2 ROAE (%) 14.9 9.2 8.3 10.8 12.5 Kevin Wong ROAA (%) 12.6 5.7 4.7 6.3 7.6 (603) 2082 6824 EV/EBITDA (x) 26.2 5.1 14.7 11.7 10.0 [email protected] Net debt/equity (%) net cash 39.1 37.8 33.6 27.9 SEE PAGE 31 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS PP16832/01/2013 (031128) Berjaya Food Investment thesis Initiate with BUY and a MYR3.10 TP Berjaya Food (BFood) was listed in March 2011 and its business then was primarily the development and operation of the Kenny Rogers Roasters (KRR) chain of restaurants in Malaysia. Subsequently, BFood acquired and became the franchise holder of: 1) Starbucks in Malaysia and Brunei, 2) Jollibean in Singapore and Malaysia; and 3) KRR in Indonesia and Cambodia. BFood had 362 outlets in total in the region as at end-FY15. Starbucks, the prime earnings driver We estimate BFood to achieve a favourable three-year forward net profit CAGR of 29.5% (FY15-18), largely underpinned by BStarbucks following the full acquisition of BStarbucks in Sep 2014. We expect BFood to open 25 Starbucks outlets in Malaysia in FY16 and subsequently 25 more each year over the next three years. This would take the number of Starbucks outlets to 268 by FY18 from 193 as at end-Apr 2015, representing a three-year (FY15-18) CAGR of 11%. Leader in chain coffee outlets in Malaysia Starbucks has remained the leader in Malaysia based on its 195 outlets (end-Jul 2015) or 43% out of the 455 chain coffee outlets in total – ahead of McCafe (20%), The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaves (16%) and Gloria Jean’s Coffee (10%). This enables the creation of strong consumer demand and customer loyalty. Starbucks in Malaysia also has the highest tender rate globally of 47% for its loyalty/pre-paid card. Tapping new segments via FMCG BStarbucks plans to enter the FMCG segment and launch its Ready-To-Drink (RTD) products by April-May 2016. We understand gross margins could be about 40-50% and an additional 5-10% once BStarbucks can produce its own RTD products via third-party producer(s). Healthy cash flows We estimate a steady stream of free cash flow per share of 6-15sen for FY16-18, backed by non-excessive capex for outlet openings and strong operating cash flows. This enables BFood to commit to its dividend policy of up to 50% of its earnings; translating to FY16-18 net yields of 1.3-2.2% (at assumed 50% payout; FY14-15 payouts were 51%/84%). We view BFood as a growth stock as opposed to a dividend-centric stock. Attractive valuation Initiate with a BUY rating and a MYR3.10 TP pegged to 22.5x CY17 PER (at – 0.5SD of one-year forward PER mean), offering 23% total return. We like BFood for its strong earnings growth catalysts from BStarbucks and decent valuations. BFood is trading at 23.4x CY16 FD PER, which is above the average CY16 PER of 18.6x for the Malaysian consumer sector. However, BFood offers rapid earnings growth potential as compared to the sector’s minimal 4% earnings growth. November 10, 2015 2 Berjaya Food Investment thesis in charts Revenue trend EBIT trend Significant jump in FY15 revenue post-full acquisition of Similarly, FY15 core operating profit surged YoY post-full BStarbucks acquisition of BStarbucks (MYRm) Revenue (LHS) YoY (RHS) (%) (MYRm) EBIT (LHS) YoY (RHS) (%) 800 200 90 400 80 350 700 Acquired Acquired 300 600 remaining 50% 150 70 remaining 50% stake in 60 stake in 250 500 BStarbucks BStarbucks 200 50 400 100 150 40 300 100 30 50 200 50 20 0 100 10 -50 0 0 0 -100 FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Source: Company, Maybank KE Source: Company, Maybank KE Outlet counts Starbucks outlet penetration (outlet per 1m population) With 25 new outlets p.a. moving forward, BStarbucks will Demographic-based growth driver for BStarbucks, which remain the top earnings driver indicates sizeable room for outlet openings in Malaysia Starbucks - Malaysia Starbucks - Brunei 45 40.7 KRR - Malaysia KRR - Indonesia 40 37.4 KRR - Cambodia Jollibean - Malaysia 35 (Outlets) 300 30 25 19.3 20 193 15 12.2 200 170 8.3 135 142 10 6.4 120 3.1 115 5 0.8 1.0 78 90 100 59 61 64 69 0 42 53 50 47 47 46 US 24 27 UK 9 16 1 2 3 12 China Japan 0 Canada Malaysia Thailand Indonesia FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A Singapore Source: Company, Maybank KE Source: Company, CEIC, Maybank KE Quarterly revenue and pre-tax profit margin BFood: One-year forward PER New levels in quarterly revenue post-inclusion of entire Trading at undemanding at one-year forward PER mean BStarbucks revenue in BFood’s topline PE (x) Revenue (LHS) Pretax profit margin (RHS) (RMm) (%) 50 160 25 45 Acquired remaining 50% 140 40 stake in BStarbucks 20 120 35 +1SD, 36.2 30 100 15 Mean, 27.0 80 25 20 60 10 -1SD, 17.8 15 40 5 10 20 5 0 0 0 Jun-15 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Source: Company, Maybank KE Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE November 10, 2015 3 Berjaya Food Contents Page 1. Company Background 5 2. Products and Services 12 3. Key Investment Thesis 14 3.1 Starbucks, the prime earnings driver 14 3.2 Leverages on leading market share and prominent branding 16 3.3 Demographics show growth opportunities 16 3.4 Tapping new market segments and consumers via FMCG 18 3.5 Drive-through outlets enhance profitability 18 3.6 M&A channel for BCorp’s F&B? 19 4.
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