Studies in Space Policy Marco Aliberti Ksenia Lisitsyna Russia’s Posture in Space Prospects for Europe Studies in Space Policy Volume 18 Series editor European Space Policy Institute, Vienna, Austria Editorial Advisory Board Jean-Jacques Tortora, European Space Policy Institute, Vienna, Austria Genevieve Fioraso, Former Minister and Member of the French Parliament, France Gerd Gruppe, Bereich Raumfahrtmanagement, Mitglied des DLR-Vorstands, Bonn, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Sergio Marchisio, Full Professor of International Law, Sapienza University, Italy Dominique Tilmans, YouSpace, Wellin, Belgium Ene Ergma, Former President of the Estonian Parliament, Estonia Ingolf Schädler, Austrian Federal Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology, Austria Gilles Maquet, Former Senior Vice President of Astrium, France Jaime Silva, Former Minister, Advisor to the Director General for Internal DG GROW, Portugal Per Tegnér, European Space Policy Institute, Vienna, Austria Edited by the European Space Policy Institute Director: Jean-Jacques Tortora The use of outer space is of growing strategic and technological relevance. The development of robotic exploration to distant planets and bodies across the solar system, as well as pioneering human space exploration in earth orbit and of the moon, paved the way for ambitious long-term space exploration. Today, space exploration goes far beyond a merely technological endeavour, as its further development will have a tremendous social, cultural and economic impact. Space activities are entering an era in which contributions of the humanities—history, philosophy, anthropology—, the arts, and the social sciences—political science, economics, law—will become crucial for the future of space exploration. Space policy thus will gain in visibility and relevance. The series Studies in Space Policy shall become the European reference compilation edited by the leading institute in the field, the European Space Policy Institute. It will contain both monographs and collections dealing with their subjects in a transdisciplinary way. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8167 Marco Aliberti • Ksenia Lisitsyna Russia’s Posture in Space Prospects for Europe 123 Marco Aliberti Ksenia Lisitsyna European Space Policy Institute European Space Policy Institute Vienna, Austria Vienna, Austria ISSN 1868-5307 ISSN 1868-5315 (electronic) Studies in Space Policy ISBN 978-3-319-90553-2 ISBN 978-3-319-90554-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90554-9 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018939471 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgements The authors would like to express their sincerest gratitude to the many people who have supported and contributed to completion of the present study. As a follow-up of the research activities on the Russian space programme conducted at the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) by Charlotte Mathieu, the greatest debt is owed to her. Much appreciation is also paid to the Director of ESPI, Jean Jacques Tortora, and ESPI Coordinator of Studies, Sebastien Moranta, for their proactive inputs and useful critiques during the research and writing process of this project. Sincere gratefulness is more broadly extended to the ESPI team, in particular ESPI Resident Fellows Matteo Tugnoli and Cenan Al-Ekabi and ESPI Research Intern Leyton Wells, for their relevant feedback and cooperation in the finalisation of the study. The study has immensely benefited from the openness and wisdom of many interlocutors external to ESPI. The authors are indebted to all the experts and stakeholders interviewed under Chatham House Rule for this report, who con- tributed with their experience and outstanding insights to the value, depth and balance of this study. A specific mention goes to Igor Smirnov, Alexander Serkin, Alexander Shaenko, Dmitry Payson, Pavel Pushkin, Vitaly Egorov, Alexander Khokhlov, Frederic Nordlund, Karl Bergquist, René Pischel and Andrey Maksimov. Finally, the authors wish to express their heartfelt thanks to Isabelle Sourbes- Verger and Jaque Grinberg for reviewing the final draft of the report and providing invaluable suggestions and constructive comments. Of course, it remains that responsibility for errors and infelicities now rests with the authors. v Contents 1 Introduction ........................................... 1 1.1 Russia’s Legacy in Space: Glorious Past, Unsettled Present ..... 1 1.2 Objectives and Structure of the Study ..................... 3 References ............................................. 4 2 The Internal Evolution of the Russian Space Programme ........ 5 2.1 Russia in Space: A Challenged Resurgence ................. 5 2.1.1 Exogenous Factors .............................. 7 2.1.2 Endogenous Factors ............................. 13 2.1.3 Impact on Russian Space Activities/Highlighting the Consequences .............................. 19 2.2 Evolution and Outlook ................................ 20 2.2.1 The Institutional and Industrial Setting: Historical Evolution and Current Landscape ................... 21 2.2.2 Space Policies and Funding ....................... 34 2.2.3 Current Capabilities and Future Programmes ........... 40 2.3 Assessing Current Status and Future Prospects ............... 51 References ............................................. 52 3 The External Evolution of the Russian Space Programme ........ 55 3.1 Russia’s International Posture: Drivers and Evolution .......... 55 3.1.1 Russia’s Drivers for Space Cooperation .............. 55 3.1.2 Types of Space Cooperation ....................... 57 3.1.3 Russia’s Evolving Attitude to Cooperation ............ 60 3.2 Evolution of Russia’s Space Relations with Key Players ........ 62 3.2.1 Russia-U.S. Space Relations—Bound to Cooperate? ..... 62 3.2.2 Russia and China—Back-up Partners? ............... 69 3.2.3 Relations with India—Shrinking Rationales ............ 75 3.2.4 Relations with Other Actors and Groupings ........... 81 vii viii Contents 3.3 Assessing the Trajectory of Russia’s International Posture ...... 89 References ............................................. 90 4 Prospects for Europe .................................... 95 4.1 Europe-Russia Relations: The Background .................. 95 4.1.1 Political Relations: From the PCA to the Five-Principle Russia Policy ................................. 95 4.1.2 Economic Relations: Important Partners .............. 99 4.1.3 Issues and Prospects ............................ 101 4.2 Europe-Russia Space Cooperation: Business as Usual or Selective Engagement? ................................ 104 4.2.1 Europe-Russia Space Cooperation Frameworks ......... 104 4.2.2 Sectoral Cooperation Overview .................... 106 4.3 Evaluating the Impact of Russia’s Evolution on Cooperation Prospects for Europe .................................. 114 4.3.1 Consequences of Russia’s Space Sector Evolution ....... 114 4.3.2 Consequences of Russia’s International Posture Evolution .............................. 117 4.3.3 Possible Developments and Future Opportunities ........ 119 References ............................................. 128 5 Conclusions ............................................ 131 Annex A: Russia’s Space Firsts ................................. 135 Annex B: Legal and Policy Framework of Russian Space Activities .... 137 Annex C: Russia’s Major Programmes Overview .................. 141 Annex D: The Evolution of International Joint Ventures ............ 145 Annex E: Past and Future Europe–Russia Space Cooperation Timeline................................. 149 Acronyms AA Association agreement ATV Automated transfer vehicle BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa CD Conference on Disarmament CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CNES Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (French Space Agency) CNSA China National Space Administration COP21 21st Conference of the Parties CSG Guiana Space Centre CTC Cosmonauts Training Centre DRDO Indian Defence Research Development