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A Proposed Framework for Resilience to Biological Disasters:The Case of Mers-Cov Threat in a Transient Mass Gathering Event

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A Proposed Framework for Resilience to Biological Disasters:The Case of Mers-Cov Threat in a Transient Mass Gathering Event A PROPOSED FRAMEWORK FOR RESILIENCE TO BIOLOGICAL DISASTERS:THE CASE OF MERS-COV THREAT IN A TRANSIENT MASS GATHERING EVENT Saud Ali Alshehri A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Cardiff School of Engineering Cardiff University 2015- 2016 DECLARATION This work has not previously been accepted in substance for any degree and is not concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. Signed …………………………………... (Candidate) Date.……………………………. STATMENT 1 This thesis is being submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of PhD. Signed …………………………………... (Candidate) Date.……………………………. STATMENT 2 This thesis is the result of my own independent work/investigation, except where otherwise stated. Other sources are acknowledged by explicit references. Signed …………………………………... (Candidate) Date.……………………………. STATMENT 3 I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for interlibrary loans, and for the title and summary to be made available to outside organisations. Signed …………………………………... (Candidate) Date.…………………………… I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, thanks and all praises most go to GOD (Allah), for giving me the opportunity, patience and the ability to complete this study. In completing this research, I am grateful to the following persons and organisations. Firsitly, I would like to take this special opportunity to express my deep gratitude to Saudi Arabia government for supporting me in many ways during four years of this study. Furtheremore, with a deep sense of gratitude, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my main supervisor, Professor Yacine Rezgui, who has continuously given his full support throughout my PhD journey. His invaluable guidance, support and encouragement have promoted this study. He has read many drafts of my manuscripts and provided valuable comments on my work. His immense guidance has really assisted me along over the years of my PhD, and I am very grateful to have had the opportunity to learn from his knowledge and expertise areas. I am also grateful to Dr HaiJiang LI, the second Supervisor, for his continuous help, constructive criticism throughout my PhD peoject and for the knowledge I gained when I worked with him. I spent four great years at Cardiff University; I am greatly indebted to staff and tutors who have provided specific sessions of research training and presentation that I attended during my PhD journey. My appreciation goes to staff in the research office of engineering school (Aderyn Reid, Chris Lee, and Jeanette Whyte) who continuously supported research students. I would like to thank all of the people who participated, public and experts, in this research as respondents in the questionnaire survey and in the interview and appreciate their time. This research will not have been completed without them. I also would like to thank my numerous friends specially Fahad Almuzaini, who helped me to create software prototype and develop the website of my framework. Especial thanks go to my mother, Muniah, my brother Mohsen, and my sisters for their support, prayers and love during my study. Last but not the least; I would like to thank my beloved wife, Mona, for her love, understanding and support. Thanks for being so patient through the years of my PhD project. Thanks for bearing up with me when I had to spend almost all the time working. Finally, my special thanks go to my four children, Sultan, Nawaf, Jana and Rana who have been my great source of joy and emotional support. II List of publication: Journals ALSHEHRI, S., REZGUI, Y. & LI, H. 2013. Public perception of the risk of disasters in a developing economy: the case of Saudi Arabia. Natural Hazards, 65, 1813-1830. ALSHEHRI, S. A., REZGUI, Y. & LI, H. 2015a. Delphi-based consensus study into a framework of community resilience to disaster. Natural Hazards, 1- 25. ALSHEHRI, S. A., REZGUI, Y. & LI, H. 2015b. Disaster community resilience assessment method: a consensus-based Delphi and AHP approach. Natural Hazards, 1-22. ALSHEHRI, S. A., REZGUI, Y. & LI, H. 2016. Public perceptions and attitudes to biological risks: Saudi Arabia and regional perspectives. Disasters Journal. DOI: 10.1111/disa.12179. ALSHEHRI, S. A., REZGUI, Y. & LI, H. Implementation and validation of a community Resilience framework during a mass gathering event under MERS-CoV threat (submitted). Conference paper & posters: ALSHEHRI, S., REZGUI, Y. & LI, H. 2013. Community resilience factors to disaster in Saudi Arabia: the case of Makkah Province.Third International Conference on Disaster Management and Human Health Risk (Spain). Wessex Institute of Technology press, UK. 2013. ALSHEHRI, S., REZGUI, Y. & LI, H. 2014. Reducing Vulnerability Factors to Disasters in Riyadh Province . (7th Saudi Students Conference, Edinburgh, UK). ALSHEHRI, S. & REZGUI, Y. 2015. Communicable Diseases After Man-Made Disasters: The Case Of Conflicts. (8 th Saudi Students Conference, London, UK). ALSHEHRI, S & REZGUI, Y. 2015. Saudi Arabia’s Efforts To Manage Mass Gatherings During Hajj Seasons. (8 th Saudi Students Conference, London, UK). III ABSTRACT The increase in disasters in recent decades has impacted on humanity through large loss of life and negative long-term economic and environmental consequences. Disasters cannot always be prevented but their impacts can be mitigated through adapted disaster management strategies, including improving community resilience. The aim of this thesis is to develop a framework of community resilience to disaster in Saudi Arabia (CRDSA). Saudi Arabia has experienced a number of disasters between 2005 and 2014; two were of a biological nature H1N1 and MERS-CoV while the rest were caused by flooding. The study uses a mixed-method approach and paradigm of pragmatism, and is structured into three stages. First, based on the literature review, a survey questionnaire is used to examine the public perception of risk of disaster. The second stage is divided into two steps: 1) the Delphi consultation is employed to refine a set of initial criteria, organised into dimensions, derived from a review of the literature, and to explore additional criteria to inform the development of CRDSA. The Delphi technique combines a quantitative calculation to justify each dimension and associated criteria with qualitative views of experts to reach consensus around the proposed CRDSA. Data collection involved three-round questionnaire before achieving experts’ consensus; 2) AHP is used to achieve the objectives of: a) local priority weights from pair-wise comparative methods of judgment and b) determining the importance of the dimensions of the framework. The third stage focuses on the validation of the CRDSA through a real mass gathering event. The approach involves a field study investigation, including interviews and observations during the 2013 Hajj to 1) determine community resilience level at the Hajj, 2) inform prevention strategies against the risk of a MERS-CoV epidemic; and 3) validate the CRDSA in a real situation. The study finds that the proposed CRDSA framework can be used as an assessment tool to build community resilience to disasters in permanent and transient communities. IV Table of Contents DECLARATION ........................................................................................................................................ I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................................... II LIST OF PUBLICATION: ..................................................................................................................... III JOURNALS ............................................................................................................................................................. III CONFERENCE PAPER & POSTERS: ..................................................................................................................... III ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................. IV TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................... V LIST OF FIGURES: ............................................................................................................................................. VIII LIST OF TABLES: .................................................................................................................................................... X ABBEVIATIONS ................................................................................................................................... XII CHPTER:1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY .................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 PROBLEM DEFINITION .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................ 7 1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 7 1.5 THE CONTRIBUTIONS
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