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Middle East and Indian Ocean Appendix B – Region 3 Country and regional profiles of volcanic hazard and risk: Middle East and Indian Ocean S.K. Brown1, R.S.J. Sparks1, K. Mee2, C. Vye-Brown2, E.Ilyinskaya2, S.F. Jenkins1, S.C. Loughlin2* 1University of Bristol, UK; 2British Geological Survey, UK, * Full contributor list available in Appendix B Full Download This download comprises the profiles for Region 3: Middle East and Indian Ocean only. For the full report and all regions see Appendix B Full Download. Page numbers reflect position in the full report. The following countries are profiled here: Region 3 Middle East and Indian Ocean Pg. 203 Afghanistan 211 Comoros 216 France (Indian Ocean Islands) 222 Iran 230 Madagascar 236 Pakistan 241 Saudi Arabia 246 South Africa 252 Syria 257 Yemen 263 Brown, S.K., Sparks, R.S.J., Mee, K., Vye-Brown, C., Ilyinskaya, E., Jenkins, S.F., and Loughlin, S.C. (2015) Country and regional profiles of volcanic hazard and risk. In: S.C. Loughlin, R.S.J. Sparks, S.K. Brown, S.F. Jenkins & C. Vye-Brown (eds) Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. This profile and the data therein should not be used in place of focussed assessments and information provided by local monitoring and research institutions. Region 3: Middle East and Indian Ocean Figure 3.1 The distribution of Holocene volcanoes through the Middle East and Indian Ocean region. The capital cities of the constituent countries are shown. Description Region 3: The Middle East and Indian Ocean comprises volcanoes throughout the Middle East, Madagascar and much of the west and south Indian Ocean. Twelve countries are represented in this region. All are included in this regional discussion. For individual country profiles for Australia see Region 5 and for India see Region 6. This profile and the data therein should not be used in place of focussed assessments and information provided by local monitoring and research institutions. Country Number of volcanoes Afghanistan 2 Australia (See Region 5) 2 Comoros 2 France 9 India (See Region 6) 1 Iran 8 Madagascar 5 Pakistan 1 Saudi Arabia 10 South Africa 2 Syria 6 Yemen 8 + 4 from Region 2 Table 3.1 The countries represented in this region and the number of volcanoes. Volcanoes located on the borders between countries are included in the profiles of all countries involved. Note that countries may be represented in more than one region, as overseas territories may be widespread. Figure 3.2 The Middle East section of Region 3. Fifty-six Holocene volcanoes are located in the Middle East and Indian Ocean. Most of these volcanoes are in Saudi Arabia (10), and indeed, most volcanoes are Middle Eastern, with fewer in the 204 Indian Ocean. A range of tectonic settings are represented here, from dominantly rift-related volcanism in the Middle East to intra-plate hotspot volcanoes in the Indian Ocean. Volcanoes with a range of morphologies are present in this region, with small cones dominating throughout Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Madagascar. Large cones, mainly stratovolcanoes, dominate in Iran and the French and Australian Indian Ocean islands. 36 out of 56 volcanoes are of basaltic composition. A range of activity has been recorded in the Middle East and Indian Ocean during the Holocene. 252 confirmed eruptions are recorded in this region, of VEI 0 to 5, representing small to large explosive eruptions. However, about 97% of eruptions have been small VEI 0 to 2 size events, with less than 1% of eruptions (just 1 event) being VEI ≥4. This VEI 5 event was the 2700 BC eruption of Piton de la Fournaise on the French island of Réunion. The absence of more VEI ≥4 eruptions may represent the limited geological stratigraphic studies of the volcanoes. Eleven volcanoes have historical records of 225 eruptions, of which 223 were recorded through direct observations. 76% of these eruptions have records of producing lava flows. No pyroclastic flows are recorded historically and just one lahar is recorded, at Karthala in the Comoros in 2005. The eruption record is dominated by historical events and eruptions of Piton de la Fournaise and Karthala, which make up 90% of the historical record. Just 2% of historical eruptions have resulted in loss of life. This is likely due to the small nature of most eruptions here, with lava flows rarely being the cause of fatalities. The size of the local population at the volcanoes of this region varies from low to high, with a corresponding range of assigned risk levels. Assessment of hazard (VHI) for all but four volcanoes is complicated by large uncertainties due to sparse eruption records. The two most frequently active volcanoes in this region, Karthala and Piton de la Fournaise have monitoring systems in place. Volcano facts Number of Holocene volcanoes 56 Number of Pleistocene volcanoes with M≥4 eruptions 4 Number of volcanoes generating pyroclastic flows 1 (1 eruption) Number of volcanoes generating lahars 1 (1 eruption) Number of volcanoes generating lava flows 15 (187 eruptions) Number of eruptions with fatalities 5 Number of fatalities attributed to eruptions 53 Largest recorded Pleistocene eruption The largest recorded explosive eruption in this region occurred at 26 ka, with the M6.7 Trachytic Ignimbrite eruption in the Kerguelen Islands. The 205 Kerguelen Islands are a French territory. Largest recorded Holocene eruption The largest Holocene eruption was that of Piton de la Fournaise with the M5.3 Bellecombe Ash eruption of 4650 BP. Number of Holocene eruptions 252 confirmed Holocene eruptions Recorded Holocene VEI range 0 – 5 and unknown Number of historically active volcanoes 11 Number of historical eruptions 225 Number of Primary volcano type Dominant rock type volcanoes 6 Large cone(s) Andesitic (5), Basaltic (1) 1 Lava dome(s) Andesitic (1) 6 Shield(s) Basaltic (6) 33 Small cone(s) Basaltic (29), Dacitic (1), Foiditic (1), Trachytic/Andesitic (1), Unknown (1) 1 Submarine Unknown (1) Table 3.2 The volcano types and dominant rock types of the volcanoes of this region according to VOTW4.0. Eruption Frequency VEI Recurrence Interval (Years) Small (< VEI 4) 1 Large (> VEI 3) - Table 3.3 Average recurrence interval (years between eruptions) for small and large eruptions in the Middle East and Indian Ocean. The eruption record indicates that on average small to moderate sized eruptions of VEI <4 occur in this region with an average recurrence interval (ARI) of about a year. Eruption Size Eruptions of VEI 0 to 5 are recorded through the Middle East and Indian Ocean, representing a range of eruption styles from gentle effusive events, to large explosive eruptions (Figure 3.3). VEI 2 events dominate the record, with nearly 60% of all Holocene eruptions classed as such. Indeed, less than 1% of eruptions here are explosive at VEI ≥4. 206 Figure 3.3 Percentage of eruptions in this region recorded at each VEI level; number of eruptions is also shown. The percentage is of total eruptions with recorded VEI. A further 21 eruptions were recorded with unknown VEI. Socio-Economic Facts Total population (2011) 391,186,408 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (2005 PPP $) 853 – 21,430 (Mean 5,504) Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (2005 PPP $) 828 – 22,616 (Mean 5,648) Human Development Index (HDI) (2012) 0.374 – 0.782 (Low to High: Mean 0.554 Medium) Population Exposure Number (percentage) of people living within 10 km of a Holocene 1,337,541 (0.34 %) volcano Number (percentage) of people living within 30 km of a Holocene 8,242,589 (2.11 %) volcano Number (percentage) of people living within 100 km of a 67,324,540 (17.21 %) Holocene volcano 207 Hazard, Exposure and Uncertainty Assessments Hazard III Hazard Fournaise, Piton II de la Heard; McDonald CLASSIFIED Hazard I Karthala Islands Tor Zawar; Boomerang Dhamar, Harras U – HHR Es Safa; Yar, Jabal Seamount; St. Paul; of Marion Island Unnamed; Unnamed; 'Uwayrid, Harrat; Sawâd, Harra es-; Rahat, Harrat; U- HR Mayotte Island Khaybar, Harrat Haylan, Jabal; Lunayyir, Harrat Damavand Arhab, Harra of Itasy Volcanic Field Amsterdam Island; Ithnayn, Harrat; Sharat Kovakab; UNCLASSIFIED Kerguelen Islands; Rahah, Harrat ar; Kishb, Harrat; Bal Sahand; Ambre- Birk, Harrat al; Harrah, Al; U- Est, Ile de l'; Unnamed; Bir Haf, Harra of; Bobaomby; Nosy- Unnamed; Dacht- Golan Heights; Marha, Jabal el-; NHHR Possession, Ile de la; Borhut; Bazman; Sabalan; Qal'eh Be; Ankaizina i-Navar Group; Druze, Jabal ad Grille, La; Cochons, Ile aux; Taftan; Unnamed Hasan Ali; Field Vakak Group Ankaratra Field Prince Edward Island Unnamed PEI 1 PEI 2 PEI 3 PEI 4 PEI 5 PEI 6 PEI 7 Table 3.4 Identity of the volcanoes in this region in each Hazard-PEI group. Those volcanoes with a sufficient record for determining a hazard score are deemed ‘classified’(top). Those without sufficient data are ‘Unclassified’(bottom). The unclassified volcanoes are divided into groups: U-NHHR is Unclassified No Historic or Holocene Record: that is there are no confirmed eruptions recorded in the Holocene. U-HR is Unclassified with Holocene Record: that is there are confirmed eruptions recorded during the Holocene, but no historical (post-1500) events. U-HHR is Unclassified with Historic and Holocene record. The unclassified volcanoes in bold have experienced unrest or eruptions since 1900 AD, and those in red have records of at least one Holocene VEI ≥4 eruption. 208 Population Exposure Index Number of Volcanoes Population Exposure Index 5 7 12 6 7 5 5 4 6 3 8 2 13 1 Table 3.5 The number of volcanoes in the Middle East and Indian Ocean classed in each PEI category. Risk Levels Number of Volcanoes Risk Level 0 III 2 II 2 I 52 Unclassified Table 3.6 The number of volcanoes in the Middle East and Indian Ocean region classified at each Risk Level.
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