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I THE ARAB CITIES RESILIENCE REPORT Copyright © 2018 By the United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Arab States (RBAS), 1 UN Plaza, New York, New York, 10017, USA For the full report, please visit www.arabstates.undp.org/content/rbas/en/home/publications.html or http://www.rbas-knowledgeplatform.org/Products All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of UNDP/RBAS. Cover Design, Layout and Production: Fluid SARL, Beirut, Lebanon www.fluid.com.lb The analysis and policy recommendations of the report do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Development Programme, its Executive Board Members or UN Member States. The report is the work of an independent team of authors sponsored by the Regional Bureau for Arab States, UNDP. III THE ARAB CITIES RESILIENCE IV REPORT THE ARAB CITIES RESILIENCE REPORT V CITIES ARE WHERE THE BATTLE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WON OR LOST United Nations, The Report of the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda. A New Global Partnership: Eradicate Poverty and Transform Economies Through Sustainable Development. New York: United Nations publication, 2013, p. 17. Contents VII Contents Abbreviations and acronyms VIII Summary X Introduction XIV Chapter I: Conceptualizing urban resilience to natural hazards 1 1.1 Resilience 1 1.2 Urban resilience 2 1.3 Urban resilience to natural hazards 3 1.4 Some background considerations 3 1.5 Resilience-building indicators and targets 7 1.6 Final scoping remark: governance 9 Chapter II: Urban exposure and vulnerability 10 2.1. Urbanization profile 10 2.2. Demographic and socioeconomic profile 14 2.3. Urbanization in progress: challenges and opportunities for urban resilience 23 Chapter III: Hazards, exposure and risks 29 3.1. Hazard exposure of the Arab states: general overview 29 3.2. Hazard profile: hydrometeorological hazards 30 3.3. Hazard profile: geophysical hazards 44 Chapter IV: Urban governance and resilience-building in Arab cities 64 4.1. Urban governance for disaster and climate resilience: framework for analysis 64 4.2. Governance and praxis of urban resilience-building 68 Chapter V: Outlook and way forward 122 Annexes 127 Annex 1: The Aqaba declaration on disaster risk reduction in cities 127 Annex 2: SDG - Targets for Goal 11: Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and 130 sustainable Annex 3: Useful resources from the region 131 Annex 4: Migration, urbanization, and socioeconomic analysis 132 Annex 5: Arab cities registered in unisdr mcr campaign by 31 December 2015 140 Annex 6: Cultural and natural properties listed in the world heritage list 142 Select Bibliography 143 THE ARAB CITIES RESILIENCE VIII REPORT ACSAD Arab Center for the Studies of Arid zones and Dry lands Abbreviations AF MPI Alkire-Forster Multidimensional Poverty index & acronyms AI Aridity index ANDV Aqaba Neighbourhood Disaster Volunteer ASEZA Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority ATO Arab Towns Organization AUDI Arab Urban Development institute CCA Climate Change Adaptation CI Critical infrastructure CO Country Office DiMSUR Technical Centre for Disaster Risk Management, Sustainability and Urban Resilience DM Disaster Management DRG Disaster Risk Governance DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction DST Dead Sea Transform EARS East African Rift System EM-DAT The Emergency Events Database EMR Eastern Mediterranean Region EMSC European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GCiF Global City indicators Facility GDCD General Directorate of Civil Defence GDP Gross Domestic Products GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GiS4DS Geographic information System for Decision Support GNI Gross National income iCDO International Civil Defence Organization iDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre iDP Internally Displaced Person iDSC Information and Decision Support Centre iNDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution iOM International Organization for Migration iPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change iRGC International Risk Governance Council iSiS Islamic State of iraq and Syria iTCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone LDCs Least Developed Countries LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design LGSAT Local Governance Self-Assessment Tool MCR Making Cities Resilient MENA Middle East and North Africa MD Multidimensional Abbreviations & acronyms IX NAO North Atlantic Oscillation NCCMDRR National Committee for Crisis Management and Disaster Risk Reduction NCEMA National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority ODI Overseas Development institute OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OiCC Organization of islamic Capitals and Cities PDTRA Petra Development and Tourism Regional Authority PGA Peak Ground Acceleration PME Presidency of Meteorology and Environment PPRD Prevention, Preparedness and Response to Natural and Man-made Disasters RA Resilience Alliance RCPs Representative Concentration Pathways ROAS Regional Office for Arab States SDC Swiss Development Cooperation SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SGS Saudi Geological Survey SLR Sea Level Rise SNSN Saudi National Seismic Network SPEI Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration index STC Southern Tier Countries UAE United Arab Emirates UBC Uniform Building Code UHI Urban Heat island UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNiSDR United Nations international Strategy for Disaster Reduction WB World Bank WCCD World Council on City Data THE ARAB CITIES RESILIENCE X REPORT At a time when the Arab region is going through political turmoil, numerous civil wars and Summary an economic crisis, a debate about urban resilience may sound inapt or untimely. However the growing dominance of urban landscapes against rapidly changing, demographic, political, economic and climatic conditions means that the future of human development in the region will be determined by how its cities are governed. indeed, an answer to the ongoing crises of the region might lie in the effective governance of its cities. How can Arab cities offer better opportunities to urban dwellers irrespective of their class, tribe, creed, gender, age or nationality of origin? What resources are available to the cities to foster such opportunities? To what extent are citizens represented in urban governance and can hold their representatives accountable? What risks, threats and challenges do cities face in ensuring a sustainable, equitable, safe and fulfilling lifestyle for their residents? How can those risks, threats and challenges can be minimized? What capacities are required to address those risks and challenges? Some of these questions relate to the subject of this Report, especially those concerned with risks, threats and challenges to sustainable and safer urban development and the capacities needed in this regard. Broad in concept, resilience is concerned with a society’s ability to anticipate, prevent, respond to, and recover from potential shocks in the economic, social, political, technological and environmental domains. The subject matter of this Report is concerned with the shocks and threats posed by environmental hazards to urban development. According to the UN Population Division, the total population residing in urban areas of the Arab region was just over 58 per cent by 2016.1 Population and urbanization levels vary significantly across the Arab subregions. For instance, urban population in the Mashreq (Egypt, iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and the Syrian Arab Republic) was 88.5 million in 2015, compared to 64.1 million in the Maghreb (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia), 43.3 million in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC - Bahrain, iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), and 27.5 million in the Southern Tier Countries (STC - Comoros, Djibouti, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen). On the other hand, the most urbanized subregion is the GCC (82.2 per cent), and the least urbanized area is the STC (34.6 per cent). Numerous unique demographic, sociopolitical and economic trends have a strong bearing upon urban development, vulnerability and resilience in the Arab region. There is mushrooming of Medium and small cities have mushroomed across the region. Urban sprawl is another prominent feature of the settlement patterns in the region, as seen along the coasts of the Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf. The countries that have largest populations and higher poverty rates are also the ones that are experiencing the fastest urbanization rates, including Egypt, iraq and Syria from the Mashreq subregion, and Somalia, Sudan and Yemen from the Southern Tier. Most of the 41.23 million urban poor who have been identified by the Alkire-Forster Multidimensional poverty index (AF MPi) as Multidimensional (MD) poor and the 21.5 million city dwellers who are at risk of MD poverty live in the above countries.2 FOOTNOTES 1 The United Nations Population Division’s World Urbanization Prospects [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB. TOTL. iN.ZS?locations=1A]. Accessed 30 January 2018. 2 Nawar 2014. Executive summary XI Although the percentage of slums is decreasing in the Arab
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