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The Impact of the Pandemic on Spain's Businesses

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The Impact of the Pandemic on Spain's Businesses SEFO Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook SEFO SPANISH AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL OUTLOOK VOLUME 10 | number 3, May 2021 WHAT MATTERS The impact of the The impact of the pandemic on Spanish household and pandemic on Spain’s corporate sector accounts Spain’s business businesses demographics post-COVID-19: An initial assessment The resilience of Spain’s manufacturers in the face of COVID-19 Stimulating business creation: Analysis and proposals Orders or claims: VOLUME Market values of European and Funcas Caballero de Gracia, 28 Spanish banks: Contraction 28013 Madrid (España) and recovery against the Teléfono: 91 596 54 81 2021 May 3, 10 | number Fax: 91 596 57 96 ISSN: 2254 - 3880 backdrop of COVID-19 [email protected] www.funcas.es 9772254389002 9772254388005 Payments in year two of the pandemic Deterioration in Spain’s public finances in the wake of COVID-19 SEFO is a bi-monthly Economic Journal Board of Editors published by Funcas and written by its Carlos Ocaña experts, on the most pressing issues Santiago Carbó facing the Spanish and international José Félix Sanz economy / financial system today. Raymond Torres Readers can find this and archived issues Managing Editors of SEFO at www.funcas.es. Please contact us to request permission to republish an Alice B. Faibishenko article at [email protected] Juan Núñez Electronic Edition Board of Trustees An electronic edition of this Journal is Isidro Fainé Casas (President) available at José María Méndez Álvarez-Cedrón http://www.funcas.es/Publicaciones (Vice president) Fernando Conlledo Lantero (Secretary) Carlos Egea Krauel Miguel Ángel Escotet Álvarez Amado Franco Lahoz Manuel Menéndez Menéndez Pedro Antonio Merino García Antonio Pulido Gutiérrez Victorio Valle Sánchez Gregorio Villalabeitia Galarraga Contact [email protected] Web Site www.funcas.es Orders or Claims: Funcas, publications Tel.; +34-91-5965481, Fax: +34-91- 5965796, e-mail: [email protected] Printed in Spain Editorial and Production Funcas Caballero de Gracia, 28. 28013 Madrid (Spain) Ownership and Copyright: © Funcas 2012 ISSN print edition 2254-3899 ISSN electronic edition 2254-3880 Depósito Legal: M-10678-2012 Prints: Cecabank. SEFO SPANISH AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL OUTLOOK This page was left blank intentionally. Letter from the Editors Progress on the vaccination front, albeit Spain’s household savings rate shot up to highly uneven, has ushered in a change in 14.7% of GDI in 2020 from 6.3% in 2019. That global economic momentum that is already said, it is possible the drop in income was being foreshadowed by economic indicators. concentrated in low-income households, while This wave of growth is reaching Europe and the growth in savings occurred primarily in should be supported further by the upcoming medium- and high-income households, which disbursement of Next Generation EU funds. could have consequences for post-pandemic Economic indicators in Spain too are sending consumption and savings trends. Meanwhile, broadly positive signals, pointing to a recovery. gross operating profit of the non-financial Within this context, the publication of the May corporate sector declined by 18% in 2020 with issue of Spanish and International Economic the sector’s net lending position deteriorating & Financial Outlook (SEFO) is marked by a to 2.4% of GDP. This has contributed to a more constructive backdrop. fall in the number of businesses operating in Spain. While the recently announced As Spain heads into the second stage of government support measures directed the COVID-19 crisis, the recovery phase, this towards the business community were a issue of SEFO takes a look at the asymmetrical welcome development, these data suggest that impact of the crisis on Spain’s business fabric, both in broad terms and for specific industry additional measures are needed in order to segments. prevent even greater structural damage. That said, the increase in public indebtedness could To frame our analysis, we start out this leave the economy more vulnerable when the issue of SEFO by assessing the impact of the ECB eventually winds down asset purchases. pandemic on households and corporates. Although the impact of COVID-19 on the We then focus on Spain’s business Spanish economy was substantial, the extent demographics as a consequence of the to which it hit the household and corporate pandemic. Specifically, this SEFO places sectors’ finances differed in several notable particular emphasis on the performance of the ways. Thanks to generous government manufacturing sector – a sector that seems to protection measures, such as the furlough have demonstrated resilience in the face of the and income support schemes, households’ COVID-19 crisis in terms of output, but may gross disposable income (GDI) declined by face a mixed outlook going forward, given the just 3.3% in 2020, which is considerably contraction in new businesses created and lower than the contraction in GDP. Notably, some deterioration in employment trends. III Although previous crises have had with peer countries. However, by December 2020, adverse effects on business volume indicators Spanish manufacturing production was down and corporate dynamism, the extent to which just 2% year-on-year. In terms of manufacturing COVID-19 has impacted Spanish businesses employment trends, Spanish firms had a strong is unprecedented. For example, business record of job creation going into the crisis. turnover in the first few months of the pandemic However, by the second quarter of 2020, the contracted by nearly twice as much as during the number of hours worked in the manufacturing financial crisis. In terms of corporate dynamism, industry had fallen significantly, with job losses there was an average year-on-year reduction in rising incrementally despite the temporary job the number of net new businesses of 72% in April protection scheme. 2020. However, closer analysis reveals that some sectors have been hit harder than others, with the Apart from assessing the performance of subsequent recovery speeds also differing across Spain businesses to date, we look ahead at the industries. While the manufacturing industry outlook for business creation in Spain, taking contracted for 15 consecutive months during into account the relevant policy considerations the financial crisis, it has sustained a relatively necessary to underpin a constructive environment. rapid recovery in turnover during the COVID-19 The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital crisis. Conversely, turnover in the retail sector Transformation has published a document titled remains 10% below pre-crisis levels. Although it “Measures for Fostering Business Creation and is difficult to be more precise, evidence suggests Growth” that argues in favour of increasing the that the positive performance within the retail average size of Spain’s enterprises to close the sector comes from the sale of food and everyday productivity gap. But many studies show that it products, while the rest of the retail sector is still is not company size that determines productivity struggling with uncertainty and difficulties. That levels but productivity that determines size and said, manufacturing fared less well in terms of that the breakdown of a country’s enterprises by business dynamism, where the number of net size segments is the result of market discipline, new businesses contracted by 20%, slightly less competition and management practices. Although than the 22% registered by the hospitality sector the government argues that the minimum capital (accommodation and food service activities). required for setting up an LLC is an impediment These data highlight the need to design economic to business creation, reducing this amount could support measures in accordance with each sector’s send a misleading message to start ups about the trajectory, reality and reasonable outlook. real financial needs of going into business. More attention should also be paid to the employer While Spain’s GDP contracted by more and management training market in Spain and than the other core EU countries in 2020, its the gap in formal education between the two. In manufacturing sector has proved surprisingly terms of regulations relating to enterprise size resilient. At 10.8%, the Spanish manufacturing thresholds, it may be necessary to review these sector’s GVA posted the smallest contraction, but such a review should be approached from a with Germany’s manufacturing GVA plunging broad perspective that takes general interest goals by 11.3%, more than double its fall in GDP. into account. Lastly, business creation policy Admittedly, part of this is explainable by the fact underestimated the internal costs of growth. As that tourism, a key sector for Spain, collapsed in a first step in taking them into consideration, the 2020, weighing heavily on GDP. Also relevant government could benefit from commissioning a is the fact that Spain entered the crisis after white book on management practices in Spain. several years of stronger growth in output in the manufacturing sector compared to Germany, The next section of the May SEFO shifts France and Italy. Notably, the recovery in Spanish the attention back to the financial system. First, manufacturing took longer to emerge due to the we analyse the performance of European bank prolongation of lockdown measures compared stocks throughout the pandemic. As well, we look IV at the impact of the health crisis on payments and speed. Nevertheless, it will not be possible trends in Spain. European and Spanish banks’ to determine the extent of the shift in consumer share prices took a significant hit during the peak preferences for payment technologies until some of the COVID-19 crisis. Measured using price- degree of normality returns. to-book value, Spanish and European banks were trading at a low of 0.3x (i.e. at a discount Finally, we close the issue with an to their book value of 70%) in 2020. At the start assessment of the health of public balances, as of the crisis, some bank stocks lost more than well as present the latest forecasts as regards 50% of their value, compared to average index the evolution of Spain’s deficit and debt figures.
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