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Spain's Outlook for Pandemic Recovery

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Spain's Outlook for Pandemic Recovery SEFO Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook SEFO SPANISH AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL OUTLOOK VOLUME 10 | number 4, July 2021 WHAT MATTERS Spain’s outlook for The Spanish economy in recovery mode: Opportunities pandemic recovery: and challenges Areas of outperformance COVID-19 and its asymmetric impact in Spain by province: and pending challenges Recent trends and projections Forbearance patterns at Spanish banks: Impact of COVID-19 Decoupling between non-performance and provisions Orders or claims: The Spanish housing market VOLUME post COVID-19 Funcas Caballero de Gracia, 28 28013 Madrid (España) 10 | number 4, July 2021 July 4, 10 | number The outlook for the deficit: The Teléfono: 91 596 54 81 ISSN: 2254 - 3880 Fax: 91 596 57 96 calm before the storm [email protected] www.funcas.es 9772254389002 9772254388005 Institutional reforms: A source of productivity gains for the Spanish economy SEFO is a bi-monthly Economic Journal Board of Editors published by Funcas and written by its Carlos Ocaña experts, on the most pressing issues Santiago Carbó facing the Spanish and international José Félix Sanz economy / financial system today. Raymond Torres Readers can find this and archived issues Managing Editors of SEFO at www.funcas.es. Please contact us to request permission to republish an Alice B. Faibishenko article at [email protected] Juan Núñez Electronic Edition Board of Trustees An electronic edition of this Journal is Isidro Fainé Casas (President) available at José María Méndez Álvarez-Cedrón http://www.funcas.es/Publicaciones (Vice president) Fernando Conlledo Lantero (Secretary) Carlos Egea Krauel Miguel Ángel Escotet Álvarez Amado Franco Lahoz Manuel Menéndez Menéndez Pedro Antonio Merino García Antonio Pulido Gutiérrez Victorio Valle Sánchez Gregorio Villalabeitia Galarraga Contact [email protected] Web Site www.funcas.es Orders or Claims: Funcas, publications Tel.; +34-91-5965481, Fax: +34-91- 5965796, e-mail: [email protected] Printed in Spain Editorial and Production Funcas Caballero de Gracia, 28. 28013 Madrid (Spain) Ownership and Copyright: © Funcas 2012 ISSN print edition 2254-3899 ISSN electronic edition 2254-3880 Depósito Legal: M-10678-2012 Prints: Cecabank. SEFO SPANISH AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL OUTLOOK This page was left blank intentionally. Letter from the Editors Thirteen years after the Global Financial quarter indicators released to date point Crisis (GFC), Spain was confronted with a new to a sharp turnaround. Jobs registered and unexpected economic shock caused by the strong growth in May and June, while the pandemic, which had brought the economy to manufacturing and services PMI readings a halt. While both crises represented scenarios rose to near-record levels. Although tourism that were extremely adverse, the starting seemed to be headed towards recovery in May, points and toolkits necessary to face them rising infection rates appear to have weighed were quite distinct. For example, contrary to on tourist numbers in June. Also, inflation the case of the previous crisis, the financial rose from negative rates at the end of last year and real estate sectors seem to be holding up to 2.7% in June and is expected to rise above surprisingly well in response to COVID-19. 3% by the end of 2021. The forecast for GDP Conversely, while Spain headed into the GFC growth in 2021 stands at 6.3% and at 5.8% for in a relatively solid fiscal position, the 2022. This growth pattern reflects the fact that government today has a much smaller margin consumers are spending their precautionary to deal with the present crisis. Fortunately, savings faster than anticipated, which should the speed of the EU response relative to 2008 benefit growth this year at the expense of 2022 will help fill in this gap in discretionary fiscal (the pent-up demand effect). Conversely, the support to underpin recovery. protracted negotiations over the NGEU mean that those funds will have a bigger impact Within this context, the July issue of next year (without fully offsetting the pent-up Spanish and International Economic & demand effect). Meanwhile, the budget deficit Financial Outlook (SEFO) takes a look at will reach 6.2% in 2022. And, in the absence the better than expected performance across of measures, debt is expected to increase to some areas of Spain’s public and private nearly 117% of GDP by 2022. sectors throughout the pandemic, as well as highlights outstanding challenges. The economic crisis in Spain has been characterised by a triple asymmetric impact This SEFO starts out with an assessment in terms of timing, sector and region. That of the outlook for the Spanish recovery – asymmetry explains the differing impacts on first, broadly at the national level, and next, the economic front and will also shape the at the level of Spain’s provinces. Spain’s varying speeds of recovery over the coming economy contracted by 0.4% in 1Q21, with months. Regarding timing, the crisis began in all components of demand except investment 2Q20, resulting in a quarterly contraction of in capital goods affected. However, second- 17.8%, with a 17.1% recovery in the following III quarter. Customer-facing sectors most affected by share of 20%, this puts Spain at the top of the list the restrictions saw GVA contract at a quarterly of eurozone banking systems in terms of FBEs. rate of 41.4% in 2Q20. Due to their reliance on Finally, it is worth highlighting that in Spain the tourism, the Balearic and Canary Islands, along percentage of forborne exposures classified as with certain provinces along the Mediterranean non-performing is 11.5 percentage points above coast, were the regions hit hardest. Our nowcasting the eurozone average (50.2%) implying greater model points to quarterly growth of over 3% in reliance on the refinancing route when borrowers 2Q21. Importantly, those sectors most exposed run into trouble. to the restrictions are very labour intensive. As a result, they require less growth than other sectors Also noteworthy was the significant to increase employment. Specifically, those provisioning effort made by Spanish banks even sectors need activity to grow by 0.24% year-on- after the introduction of more accommodating year to create jobs, while all other sectors require regulation and accounting rules. However, growth of at least 0.33% year-on-year to increase provisioning started to slow in the first quarter employment. [1] Nevertheless, the economic and of 2021 and there is a debate as to whether it job recovery will continue to be characterised by ought to keep pace with 2020. Non-performing disparity across sectors and regions. exposures should peak by early 2023, rising by around €40 billion between 2021 and 2022, As regards the financial sector, with the worst with consumer credit hit especially hard in of the pandemic seemingly behind us, we take relative terms. If the provisioning effort of 1Q21 stock of the impact on the banking sector to date. were maintained for all of 2021, the banks would In this respect, we analyse forbearance patterns recognise one-third of the estimated balance at Spanish institutions, as well as the provisioning outstanding in the wake of the 2020 effort this effort until the present, and what we can expect year. Alternatively, the banks could step up their from banks going forward as they plan just how provisioning by 20-25% so that it is completed by much of their capital will be tied up to secure the end of 2022. solvency in the face of some anticipated uptick in loan non-performance. We then drill down on another important sector where banks have exposures that has Curiously, the COVID-19 crisis has yet to performed relatively well during the crisis – translate into an increase in Spanish banks’ the real estate sector. Surprisingly, COVID-19’s non-performing loan (NPL) ratio. This is due to effect on the Spanish real estate market has government measures implemented to mitigate been limited. The pandemic occurred during the the impact of the crisis, such as the furlough “mature” housing cycle phase in terms of prices scheme and payment moratoria. However, there and transaction volumes. While GDP contracted are signs of a deterioration in asset quality. by 17.8% year-on-year in the second quarter For example, the downward trend in forborne of 2020, the contractions in construction and exposures (FBE) of recent years has ground to property services amounted to 22.8% and 6.3%, a halt. The fourth quarter 2020 data reveal an respectively. Between June and September, both increase in the FBE ratio quarter-over-quarter, activities have recovered, registering growth a trend worth monitoring in the coming months. of 24.8% and 6.4%, respectively. COVID-19 A comparison of Spanish banks’ forbearance did, however, change the nature of the housing rates to the rest of the eurozone also yields some market, with rising demand for larger homes notable insights. Prior to the crisis, Spanish banks’ due to home working and declining demand for exposure to forbearance had been falling more holiday homes thanks to mobility restrictions. intensely than in Europe in recent years, with Importantly, significant disparity in house the gap narrowing 2.9 percentage points since prices exists across Spain’s regions. As well, the 2015. That said, this ratio was still 0.5 percentage pandemic had a greater adverse impact on prices points higher in Spain by year-end 2020. With a of new builds compared to existing homes. That IV said, COVID-19 had a more uniformly adverse suggests that certain institutional weaknesses effect on rental prices. In general, the pandemic could be a direct cause of the unsatisfactory has shone a spotlight on housing affordability trend in productivity. For example, the Global issues. Competitiveness Report shows that Spain ranks 23rd on institutional quality compared to higher Subsequently, we examine the challenging rankings in areas such as health and physical outlook for Spain’s fiscal consolidation path, infrastructure.
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