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Und Fernkälteversorgung Assessment of the potential for application of high-efficiency cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling Final report Authors: Technical University of Vienna Richard Büchele Reinhard Haas Michael Hartner Ricki Hirner Marcus Hummel Lukas Kranzl Andreas Müller Karl Ponweiser Ecofys Marian Bons Katharina Grave Ewald Slingerland Yvonne Deng Kornelis Blok Date: 25 September 2015 © Technical University of Vienna and Ecofys 2015 commissioned by: Austrian Federal Ministry of Science, Research and the Economy (BMWFW) Summary This report presents results of a study conducted to assess the potential for efficient district heating and high-efficient cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) in Austria. The study was conducted on behalf of the Austrian Federal Ministry of Science and Economics and aims at supporting the authorities to fulfil the reporting duties related to the Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU, Article 14. This article asks for a comprehensive assessment of technical and economic potentials of CHP and district heating on a geographically disaggregated level until the year of 2025 from each member state. The main results of the study comprise this report and an interactive heat map for Austria (see http://www.austrian-heatmap.gv.at) including the following content: - Geographically disaggregated heat densities for space heating and domestic hot water in Austria - Heat demand of the most relevant industrial sites - Technical potentials for district heating, CHP, waste heat, geothermal heat, solar thermal and district cooling - Economic potentials of the technologies mentioned above for regions with high technical district heating potential - Locations of existing district heating grids and heat supply technologies in Austria In the following the major results are presented: Model results suggest that final energy demand for space and water heating in Austria will decline starting from below 100 TWhth in the base year of 2012 to 78 TWhth in year 2025 in a current policy scenario or to around 65 TWhth in an ambitious energy efficiency scenario. For both, district heating and heat from CHP plants, a maximum technical potential (district heating in regions with heat densities >10 GWh/km2 and high connection rates of 90% within those regions) and a reduced technical potential (heat densities >20 GWh/km2 and connection rates of 45%) was calculated based on regionalized data on heat demand. For district heating a maximum potential of 63 TWhth for the base scenario in 2025 was estimated. The reduced technical potential amounts to 22 TWhth. The maximum potential for CHP heat is around 57 TWhth while the reduced potential declines to 20 TWhth. The resulting electricity generation from CHP is estimated to be 49 TWhel and 19 TWhel respectively for the exploitation of the reduced potential. It should be noted that if the maximum technical potential was to be deployed, the electricity production from CHP plants is expected to exceed the residual demand for electricity in Austria significantly. The production from an exploitation of the reduced CHP potential can be almost fully integrated in the electricity system. Using the calculated technical potentials, a cost benefit analyses was conducted to estimate the economic potential for district heating and CHP for various scenarios. Assuming an interest rate of 4% and depreciating the capital costs over the full technical lifetime of all technologies the economic potential is to be seen as social planner perspective rather than an economic assessment of incentives for private investors. Furthermore the economic potential of district heating highly depends on the assumed connection rates. With connection rates of 90% the potential is estimated to be as high as 52 TWhth because heating grids seem to be economically feasible even for relatively low heat densities. However if a connection rate of only 45% is assumed the economic potential goes down to 20 TWhth. Economic potentials of CHPs in district heating are very low for the baseline scenarios because of low electricity prices. It is estimated that in the year 2025 6 TWh of heat will be provided by existing CHP plants. Only in the scenarios with low gas prices or high CO2 prices an additional potential of 13 and 20 TWhth respectively is calculated. Potential for CHP heat and waste heat were also assessed for the industry sector. Assuming that CHP can supply process heat of up to 500°C the technical potential heat from industrial CHPs is around 35 TWhth, while the resulting electricity production is around 12 TWhel. Waste heat potentials were calculated for temperature levels of >100°C and <100°C (in combination with heat pump or just for low temperature heating grids). The technical potential for waste heat >100°C is estimated to almost 3 TWhth, while the potential below 100°C is 8.5 TWhth. It should be noted that those potentials are largely based on extrapolations from other studies on industrial processes. The assessment of the economic feasibility has to be made for each process and must consider the characteristics of process heat demand and its supply at each site individually which was out of scope of this study. Furthermore, potentials for renewable energy carriers were calculated mainly based on results from literature. The technical potential for heat from biomass in Austria was assumed to be 31 TWh (without imports). The technical potential for heat from solar thermal systems was estimated to be 37.5 TWh in total. Out of this, 14.5 TWh could be produced on rooftops classified as big enough for feed in into district heating networks. However it is assumed that a significant amount of heat storage capacity is needed to integrate this potential and the cost benefit analyses shows that the existing potential is not competitive compared to other options under current market conditions. The potential for deep geothermal heat is limited to almost 1.9 TWh and potential sites are only available in selected regions. The use of ambient heat through heat pumps however could possibly cover a significant part of the heating demand especially in rural areas. Also the potential of large scale heat pumps in district heating grids is supposed to be high. However, there are still great uncertainties concerning heat sources and related costs in urban regions which is why the potential could not be quantified in this study. Model results estimate the building related energy demand for cooling in the year 2025 to be 2.6 TWhth in Austria. The technical potential for absorption chillers which are only supposed to be relevant for buildings with high cooling needs and high full load hours is estimated to be slightly over 0.3 TWhth. In addition to quantifying technical and economic potentials the study also discusses barriers related to the realization of existing potentials which also can be found in this report. Due to the geographical scope of the study related to the reporting duties of the Energy Efficiency Directive some of the results are based on aggregated assumptions, literature values and extrapolations. Therefore it should be noted that although the potentials where quantified on a regionally disaggregated level more detailed studies will have to be conducted to assess the economic feasibility of each individual district heating project (e.g. distribution costs, local biomass potential, etc.). All results and the visualization of the Austrian heating demand and relevant supply technologies can be found here: http://www.austrian-heatmap.gv.at Contents 1 Introduction and objectives ....................................................................................................................................... 7 2 Heat and cooling demand in Austria........................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Heat and cooling demand in Austria – status quo ...................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 Heat and cooling demand in the housing sector ................................................................................................. 8 2.1.1.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 8 2.1.1.2 Demand for space and water heating in residential and non-residential buildings .................................. 11 2.1.2 Heat and cooling demand in industry ............................................................................................................... 12 2.1.2.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 12 2.1.2.2 Heat and cooling demand in the Austrian manufacturing sector ........................................................ 13 2.1.2.3 Number of employees in the manufacturing sector .................................................................................. 15 2.2 Heat and cooling demand scenarios up to 2025 (and beyond) ................................................................................. 17 2.2.1 Methodology for producing scenarios for heat and cooling demand in the housing sector ............................ 17 2.2.2 Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario ...................................................................................................................... 18 2.2.3 High-efficiency scenario ...................................................................................................................................
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