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JOINT FORCE QUARTERLY ISSUE NINETY, 3RD QUARTER 2018 Joint Force Quarterly Founded in 1993 • Vol Issue 90, 3rd Quarter 2018 Strategic Shaping Innovation on a Budget Demosthenes, Churchill, and the Consensus Delusion JOINT FORCE QUARTERLY ISSUE NINETY, 3 RD QUARTER 2018 Joint Force Quarterly Founded in 1993 • Vol. 90, 3rd Quarter 2018 http://ndupress.ndu.edu Gen Joseph F. Dunford, Jr., USMC, Publisher VADM Frederick J. Roegge, USN, President, NDU Editor in Chief Col William T. Eliason, USAF (Ret.), Ph.D. Executive Editor Jeffrey D. Smotherman, Ph.D. Production Editor John J. Church, D.M.A. Internet Publications Editor Joanna E. Seich Copyeditor Andrea L. Connell Book Review Editor Frank G. Hoffman, Ph.D. Associate Editors Patricia Strait, Ph.D., and Jack Godwin, Ph.D. Art Director Marco Marchegiani, U.S. Government Publishing Office Advisory Committee COL Michael S. Bell, USA (Ret.), Ph.D./College of International Security Affairs; Col James D. Dryjanski, USAF/Air Command and Staff College; Col David J. Eskelund, USMC/Marine Corps War College; RADM Janice M. Hamby, USN (Ret.)/College of Information and Cyberspace; RADM Jeffrey A. Harley, USN/U.S. Naval War College; MajGen John M. Jansen, USMC/Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy; MG John S. Kem, USA/U.S. Army War College; LTG Michael D. Lundy, USA/U.S. Army Command and General Staff College; Brig Gen Chad T. Manske, USAF/National War College; Col William McCollough, USMC/Marine Corps Command and Staff College; LtGen Kenneth F. McKenzie, Jr., USMC/The Joint Staff; RDML Jeffrey Ruth, USN/Joint Forces Staff College; VADM Kevin D. Scott, USN/The Joint Staff; Brig Gen Jeremy T. Sloane, USAF/Air War College Editorial Board Richard K. Betts/Columbia University; Stephen D. Chiabotti/School of Advanced Air and Space Studies; Eliot A. Cohen/The Johns Hopkins University; COL Joseph J. Collins, USA (Ret.)/National War College; Richard L. DiNardo/Marine Corps Command and Staff College; Aaron L. Friedberg/Princeton University; Bryon Greenwald/ Joint Forces Staff College; Douglas N. Hime/Naval War College; Col Jerome M. Lynes, USMC (Ret.)/The Joint Staff; Kathleen Mahoney- Norris/Air Command and Staff College; Thomas L. McNaugher/ Georgetown University; Bert B. Tussing/U.S. Army War College Cover 2 images (top to bottom): Sailor from Navy Wounded Warrior–Safe Harbor waits for signal to begin 100-meter cycling event at 2018 Department of Defense Warrior Games at U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, June 2, 2018 (U.S. Navy/ Morgan K. Nall); Senior Airman Heather Carter throws shot put during track and field competition at 5th Annual Air Force Wounded Warrior Trials on Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, February 27, 2018 (U.S. Air Force/James R. Crow); Marine with 1st Marine Division boxing team faces opponent, British Royal Marine, at Commando Training Centre Royal Marines, Lympstone, England, May 3, 2018 (U.S. Marine Corps/Megan E. Brown) About the Cover In This Issue U.S. Army Soldier Second Lieutenant Shelby Blad makes fire in Northern Territory, Australia, Forum August 30, 2016, as part of survival 2 Executive Summary training during Exercise Kowari in Indo-Asia-Pacific region (U.S. 4 Intelligence in a Data-Driven Age Marine Corps/Osvaldo L. Ortega III) By Cortney Weinbaum and John N.T. Shanahan 10 Strategic Shaping: Expanding the Competitive Space By Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy, Matthew D. Strohmeyer, and Christopher D. Forrest 16 The Future of the Aircraft Carrier Features Joint Force Quarterly is published by the National Defense University Press for the Chairman of the and the Carrier Air Wing 60 Bombs, Not Broadcasts: U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. JFQ is the Chairman’s flagship By Michael E. O’Hanlon Preference for Kinetic Strategy joint military and security studies journal designed to inform members of the U.S. Armed Forces, allies, and in Asymmetric Conflict other partners on joint and integrated operations; By Cole Livieratos national security policy and strategy; efforts to combat JPME Today terrorism; homeland security; and developments in 24 568 Balls in the Air: Planning for training and joint professional military education to 68 Reverse Engineering transform America’s military and security apparatus the Loss of Space Capabilities Goldwater-Nichols: China’s to meet tomorrow’s challenges better while protecting By Chadwick D. Igl, Candy S. Joint Force Reforms freedom today. All published articles have been vetted through a peer-review process and cleared by the Smith, Daniel R. Fowler, and By Shane A. Smith, Thomas William L. Angermann Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review. Henderschedt, and Timothy NDU Press is the National Defense University’s D. Luedecking cross-component, professional military and academic 30 Transregional Capstone Exercise: publishing house. Training for Tomorrow’s Fight 78 Don’t Shoot the Messenger: The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations By William A. Buell, Erin Demosthenes, Churchill, and expressed or implied within are those of the Dorrance, and Robert West contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views the Consensus Delusion of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. By Michael P. Ferguson 36 The Case for Joint Force Copyright Notice Acquisition Reform This is the official U.S. Department of Defense edition By Michael E. McInerney, of Joint Force Quarterly. Any copyrighted portions Recall of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted Conway Lin, Brandon D. Smith, 86 Defending the AEF: Combat without permission of the copyright proprietors. JFQ and Joseph S. Lupa should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted Adaptation and Jointness from or based on its content. in the Skies over France Submissions and Communications Commentary By Bryon Greenwald JFQ welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from members of the Armed Forces, 42 U.S. Special Operations security policymakers and shapers, defense analysts, Command’s Future, by Design Book Reviews academic specialists, and civilians from the United By Charles N. Black, Richard States and abroad. Submit articles for consideration 97 The Forgotten Front to ScholarOne, available at https://mc04. D. Newton, Mary Ann Nobles, manuscriptcentral.com/ndupress, or write to: Reviewed by Andrew Byers and David Charles Ellis Editor, Joint Force Quarterly NDU Press 50 Enhancing Global 98 The Logic of American 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 2504) Nuclear Strategy Fort Lesley J. McNair Security Through Security Washington, DC 20319 Reviewed by Michael Fitzsimmons Force Assistance Telephone: (202) 685-4220/DSN 325 By Keith D. Smith Email: [email protected] 100 Defense of the West JFQ online: ndupress.ndu.edu/jfq Reviewed by Sten Rynning 53 Cooking Shows, Corollas, and 3rd Quarter, July 2018 Innovation on a Budget ISSN 1070-0692 By Mike Jernigan and Jason Cooper Joint Doctrine 102 The U.S. Government’s Approach to Economic Security: Focus on Campaign Activities By George E. Katsos 108 Joint Doctrine Update Senior Airman checks inside of C-17 Globemaster III before beginning preflight inspection March 27, 2013, at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio (U.S. Air Force/Mikhail Berlin) Executive Summary ow well does the U.S. mili- writing, the Budgetary Control Act one of its combat wings, eliminating an tary transform? When are the (or so-called sequestration) is still in entire leadership layer, the group, by plac- H best time and circumstances force, but the Department of Defense ing squadron commanders directly under to change how the joint force does budgetary outlook is fairly bright. So, the wing commander. No billets were business? In search of some answers, if we needed to do some thinking when lost, but the chain of command became I came across a short but powerful money was tight, should these sugges- short, with the idea of empowering those article written a few years ago by two tions not be applied as the situation line commanders to run their squadrons consultants to the United Kingdom improves? Let’s take a minute to see if with only one boss directly above them at Ministry of Defence, David Chinn and this is the case. the tactical level. A big change to be sure. John Dowdy. They conducted a survey Chinn and Dowdy suggest that real Somewhat conversely, Chinn and in December 2014 of “almost 1,000 transformation can best be applied at Dowdy next suggest militaries should not leaders and senior employees in more the “sharp end,” or, as we know it, the reorganize but look for quick wins that than 30 U.S. Government agencies and tactical unit. As an example, “just in can build a momentum for change. They found that only 40 percent believed time” logistics has already been applied also recognize the biggest problem with that their transformation programs suc- widely, and 3D printing may even further change in militaries—resistance to move ceeded.” Even though these results do reduce the demands on the supply chain away from the status quo. To achieve a not seem heartening to those “change that feeds warfighting units. The authors successful transformation, leaders have to agents” among us, their research sug- suggest that “leading through the line,” set a clear idea for change and reinforce gests how to change one’s military even instead of top-down direction, places line how that move is tied to the mission. in a period of budgetary pressure, as commanders with expanded authorities Next, leadership has to show personal was recently experienced in Europe and but holds them accountable. Recently, and lasting commitment to the change. the United States. In fact, as of this the Air Force initiated an experiment in The authors’ last suggestion may be the 2 Forum / Executive Summary JFQ 90, 3rd Quarter 2018 one needed most for success: invest in every level is the readiness of their units, One of the great advantages of my building the right capabilities.
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