Policy Brief

100 Days of The Afghan Peace Talks In Perspective

June 2020 The Institute of War and Peace Studies -IWPS

Table of Contents

Editorial...... 3 Key stakeholders parallel interviews...... 4 Sima Samar interview ...... 4 Fawzia Koofi interview ...... 5 Mullah Agha Jan Mutasim interview ...... 6 Political update from inside ...... 7 A crisis beyond the authority of IEC; Dr. Ghani and Dr. Abdullah deal...... 6 Regional update ...... 9 Reactions to the U.S.-Taliban peace deal: Regional consensus on the horizon?...... 10 High profile attacks and level of violence around the country ...... 11 Militants attack despite the Peace Deal and Ramadan ...... 11 Attacks on Mosques, hospital and funeral gathering ...... 12 ANDSF resumes an offensive posture against the Taliban ...... 12 Civilian casualties; UNAMA reports ...... 13 Ceasefire and sanctions monitoring ...... 13 Hopes for extending a three-day ceasefire: Taliban kills more soldiers ...... 14 The Taliban remains under sanctions due to disagreements in ...... 14 Tracking the withdrawal of foreign troops ...... 15 Shadowing Khalilzad...... 16 Doha tracker...... 17 Prisoners exchange ...... 18 Peace Recommendations ...... 19 References ...... 21

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Editorial

Dear Reader, nical and financial initiatives and in- struments. One of them is the EU-Af- The European Union (EU) Dele- ghanistan Peace Support Mechanism gation in Afghanistan is delighted (EU-APSM) where the Swedish to partner with the Institute of War Cooperation Agency, SIDA, is our and Peace Studies (IWPS) and the partner. This IWPS-AUAF policy re- American University of Afghanistan view has been sponsored by APSM, a (AUAF). Both have committed their mechanism that has already provided utmost to deliver this policy review support to a number of projects aimed on the trends and developments of the at promoting an inclusive peace pro- Afghan peace process. cess. There is no higher priority for the Af- The Eid ceasefire and subsequent re- Pierre Mayadoun ghans and the international communi- duction in violence, combined with ty than the end of an aimless war that prisoner releases, have sent some Ambassador has brought, for too long, sorrow and positive signals and opened the way The European Union Delegation devastation to this land and its popu- for the Intra Afghan Negotiation. But in Afghanistan lation. An inclusive and sustainable the current level of violence is far too political settlement is needed. And the high. It is now urgent to achieve a 14 June 2020 moment is now. complete ceasefire that will not only On 29 May, the Foreign Affairs Coun- allow the negotiation to start under cil of the EU conveyed its views on the best possible auspices but also the peace process, the role of the EU enable all stakeholders to combat the in that context, and called for a future COVID-19 pandemic in a more effec- that will offer to all Afghans the guar- tive manner. antees of freedom and dignity under The European Union Delegation sup- the umbrella of the Islamic Republic. ports all parties committed to bring- The EU delegation in Afghanistan ing a sustainable peace and offering a supports the Afghan peace efforts better future to the people of Afghan- through a variety of political, tech- istan.

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Key stakeholders parallel interviews

Key stakeholders parallel interviews update you on the current situation from the perspective of the key stakeholders involved in the peace dialogue with the Taliban; including former Taliban officials. In this issue of the IWPS policy brief, Sima Samr,1 Fawzia Koofi2 and Mullah Agha Jan Mutasim,3 representing the Taliban, human rights activists and states- women are approached with the following three questions:

Questions: A) How hopeful are you that Afghanistan will reach a political settlement with the Taliban in a year from now and why? B) Do you think the Taliban have changed? How? C) What are the main challenges to achieving a lasting peace in Afghanistan?

and many Taliban leaders live in ful in the past initiatives. It is import- that country; provides them ant to learn from the past experienc- safe haven, trains them and equips es; if the process is monopolized by them. Even they are being assisted some party or group it will not be in negotiations. Of course the other successful. neighboring country, Iran, also plays If justice, human rights and dignity its role. Unfortunately, U.S.-Iran are undermined, or ignored we will controversy has a strong impact on not have peace; peace in the absence the situation. of justice and human rights serves Sima Samar interview 3) Whether there is unity among the as a new prison for the citizens par- national leaderships and whether ticularly for women and minorities. A) I am optimistic of course. But it they have strong political commit- Peace cannot be achieved in a hasty depends on several factors including ment toward peace. To what extent the multi stakeholders and complex the peace process is transparent and nature of social- political fabric of 1. Sima Samar is the former head of Afghanistan whether it has the support of the ma- Independent Human Rights Commission. She is our society particular due to con- jority of the people. Most important- co-founder of the Shuhada Organization that oper- tinuation of war for more than four ates more than one hundred schools and dozens of ly to what extent the peace process clinics and hospitals dedicated to providing educa- decades, the following issues are im- is inclusive. It depends on whether tion and healthcare, particularly focusing on women portant in my view: and girls. She served in the Interim Administration those involved in the process pre- of Afghanistan and led the first-ever Ministry of 1) Whether the international com- fer national interest over personal Women’s Affairs. munity is serious about [human se- 2. Former parliamentary lawmaker, FawziaKoofi is interest and do not try to sabotage an outspoken advocate for the rights of women and curity] and whether they have strong the process. We need good and re- children, democracy, and moderate Islam. She is the political commitment toward Af- first female in the Afghan parliament to be elected sponsive governance with inclusive as Second Deputy Speaker. Also she used to lead the ghanistan’s transition to a just peace. parliament’s Women Affairs Commission. Koofi was capable institutions. It takes time to War in Afghanistan is not only an one of the few women who were part of a pan-Af- answer most of these questions. In ghan delegation that held rounds of dialogue with intra-Afghan problem. the Taliban representatives. my view unity among people and 3. Mullah Agha Jan Mutasim is the Taliban’s former 2) Whether regional countries- es- inclusiveness of the process are es- finance minister and chief auditor. He has been a pecially Pakistan, cooperate with close associate of the Taliban’s founder, Mullah Mu- sential elements. Though it is early hammad Omar. However, during post- Bonn recon- honesty. It is a fact that Pakistan is to evaluate the process, I would say ciliation efforts in Afghanistan, Mutasim positioned the biggest supporter of the Taliban himself as a back-channel negotiator between the that we have not been very success- insurgents and the Afghan government.

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manner; it requires innovation. I re- Afghan government and the Taliban member the president in 2015 speaking will help reduce violence and killing of the peace process as priority, but at of innocent Afghans. the time there was a lack of consensus B) The claim that Taliban has and unity in the government let alone changed in its core principles, stands making peace with the [Taliban] oppo- as an optimistic claim. However, the sition. Taliban have repositioned them- B) All people may change even the Tal- selves when it comes to their ap- iban. But the Taliban needs to show it proach on the negotiation for peace in practice and action. These days the and in their approach towards the Taliban prisoners are being released world. As an example, during the from the government jails; you may ob- dialogues that they had with me and serve some changes in the Taliban; you Fawzia Koofi interview other women, their negotiation team see them having long hair! In the past did not oppose women’s education during the Taliban government, many A) Any time frame within a year anymore, but they did oppose co-ed- youngsters were punished and had their or so, for a political settlement be- ucation. heads shaved because they had long tween the Afghan government and C) The chronic challenge for Af- hair [and] not as long as Taliban hair the Taliban would be an unrealistic ghanistan’s stability has always now. This is what is observable in the expectation. However, with the fol- been our geographical location Taliban. But across territories under lowing reasons, there seems to be a and adjacent countries. During “Ji- the Taliban control, I have not seen any ray of hope for a political settlement had” times, blank checks and enor- serious changes; women still are be- in Afghanistan. First, there is a na- mous amounts of money were paid ing punished publicly for having used tional consensus among the political through intelligence networks to a mobile phone or talked to men by elites and the political community support Mujahedeen groups. That phone. of Afghanistan on ending the blood- money was partly given to Muja- shed. Second, there is a regional hedeen groups, and partly spent C) One of the challenges is that people agreement to help the conflict in on promoting radicalization in the do not have full trust and confidence in Afghanistan end. Different regional region. Afghanistan is the first vic- the government due to political tension, countries might have their own in- tim of military radicalization after nepotism, ethnic discrimination, cor- terest to pursue in Afghanistan and the 1970’s up until now. Especially ruption and lack of good governance. would like to reshape and influence during the Taliban reign in power, If people fully trusted the government, the post peace settlement situation a strong partnership was created the Taliban will be isolated. The con- with the Taliban, but at this stage with Al-Qaida, and Afghan soil was tinuation of the culture of impunity, a their willingness to cooperate with used for the training and operation weak rule of law, and violation of law the peace process is a positive step. of such networks. Different terrorist by some government officials, unfortu- Third, the U.S.-Taliban agreement, groups have exploited Afghanistan’s nately, are major challenges ahead of paves the way for a condition-based vulnerability to operate in the region the peace process. But the people in Af- withdrawal of American forces from with a focus on Afghanistan, creat- ghanistan are tired of war and killing, Afghanistan. Settlement with the ing security obstacles, not only for which is clear, but we need strong state Taliban does not necessarily mean Afghanistan, but for the world, too. institutions to build peace and keep the lasting peace in Afghanistan due to That, along with internal socio-po- peace and provide human security to the existence of other terrorist net- litical divisions, a high illiteracy rate the people. This can be achieved if we works operating in the region, but and poverty, are major challenges for stand united with a strong political will. the peace agreement between the Afghanistan’s peace and stability.

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be discussed; the two sides should to operate in Afghanistan and many be able to reach a consensus. If they of them actually used to live in Af- manage to go ahead with prisoner ghanistan. But now, in their official exchange and create an environment statements, the Taliban emphasize which inspires trust for intra-Af- that they will no longer host Al-Qa- ghan dialogue, there is hope that the ida and other foreign fighters. Also, government and the Taliban will be under the Taliban regime, all pow- able to talk about those unsettled er was monopolized by the group. issues and finally reach a political Now in its political speeches, the agreement for building a strong le- Taliban suggests that they are in fa- gitimate system. vor of an inclusive government en- B) The Taliban’s position regard- compassing Afghans from all walks ing their ideological inclination has of life. That is a positive change in not changed; since its formation, the Taliban. Mullah Agha Jan Muta- the Taliban slogan on the estab- C)The most important challenge sim interview lishment of an Islamic government in the pursuit of a lasting peace is has not changed; they stick to the foreign interference. As long as we same motto today. Nonetheless, the have foreign political and military A) The nature of conflict in Afghani- movement has changed some of its interference, Afghans cannot reach stan to a great extent associates with political positions. For example, a lasting peace in their country. If political, economic and security during their time in power, the Tali- the United States, the international rivalries among regional and inter- ban would not give interviews to TV community and regional countries, national players such as the United channels. But now that has changed; in the name of peacemaking, fol- State, Russia and China. Interna- from their political committee to low their own interest in Afghani- tional players influence the conflict military and judicial committees, stan, they would prevent Afghans more than local players. I cannot the Taliban are now open to such in- from reaching a lasting peace; they predict whether a political settle- teraction with the media. Moreover, would rather intensify the conflict. ment with the Taliban is achievable previously the Taliban allowed During the last 19 years, we have within a year, but if the U.S.-Tali- Al-Qaida and other foreign fighters had the presence of the United ban agreement is fully implement- States and the international com- ed, there is hope that the Afghan munity in Afghanistan. They have conflict will come to a conclusion The nature of conflict deployed more than 150,000 troops sooner rather than later. However, in Afghanistan to a in the country; spent a lot of money what is articulated in U.S.-Taliban great extent associates and lost nearly 4,000 soldiers. Yet agreement cannot solve the Afghan with political, econom- Afghanistan remains a backward problem entirely, because the is- ic and security rival- and insecure country in the world. sues mentioned in the U.S.-Taliban ries among regional If such conduct continues, we will agreement are about the concerns and international play- be witnessing more destruction. In of the Americans and the Taliban. ers such as the Unites short, if foreign interference stops, When it comes to the Afghan gov- State, Russian and lasting peace will prevail in Afghan- ernment and the Taliban, there are China. istan. a lot of unresolved issues that must

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Political update from inside Afghanistan A crisis beyond the authority of IEC; Dr. Ghani and Dr. Abdullah deal

By February 18, 2020, the political agree over the formation of a nego- Ghani offered Dr. Abdullah 40 per standoff between Dr. Ghani and tiating team to hold talks with the cent of the cabinet and the role of Dr. Abdullah, enters a new phase Taliban. overseeing peace negotiations with as the Independent Election Com- the Taliban. mission (IEC) declares. Dr. Ghani ● Contesting the IEC’s proclama- the winner of the 2019 presiden- tion of Dr. Ghani as the winner of ● U.S. Secretary of State Mike tial elections. Dr. Abdullah calls the election, Dr. Abdullah’s “Sta- Pompeo tweets that U.S. strongly the election results invalid prom- bility and Partnership” team begins supports a unified and sovereign ising to form his own “inclusive appointing their own provincial Afghanistan and “opposes any ef- and representative” government. governors, mostly in the northern fort to establish a parallel govern- The crisis proves to go beyond the part of the country, in parallel to the ment or any use of force to resolve authority of the Independent Elec- formal governance structure. The political differences.” Pompeo tion Commission to resolve. Con- Independent Directorate of Local appreciates Dr. Abdullah's state- testing the election result,in an Governance (IDLG) warns that ap- ment regarding his “commitment unprecedented move, Dr. Abdul- pointment of provincial governors to peace and inclusivity" as well lah’s “Stability and Partnership” by Dr. Abdullah is in contravention as Dr. Ghani's promising remarks team, begins to appoint provincial of the law and that only the Pres- about forming an inclusive govern- governors. The electoral standoff, ident is authorized to make such ment aimed at peace and unity. which coincides with the recently decisions. signed U.S.-Taliban peace deal, ● Failing to broker an agreement exacerbates the government’s lack ● Dr. Ghani and Dr. Abdullah after meeting with the two Afghan of unity and, consequently, its uni- both take the oath of office as the leaders, Pompeo announces that ty of effort vis-à-vis the Taliban. As president of Afghanistan, hold- U.S. is considering a reduction the government struggles to rectify ing separate ceremonies at Arg of $1 billion in aid and that they the internal dispute, the intra-Af- and Sapidar palaces, respectively. would be prepared to cut a similar ghan talks, due to begin by March American and UN diplomats attend amount in 2021, because of the on- 10- according to the terms set by Dr. Ghani’s inauguration ceremo- going feud between Dr. Ghani and the U.S.-Taliban deal, delays. Ulti- ny, while Dr. Abdullah’s inaugura- his political rival Dr. Abdullah. mately, eight months were to pass tion ceremony is attended by some before the political rivals sign a local leaders. Both parties promise ● Observers suggest that since the power sharing agreement that saw. to establish inclusive governments. United States pays billions every Dr. Ghani continuing as president year toward the Afghan budget, and. Dr. Abdullah getting designat- ●. Dr. Ghani's ceremony is disrupt- including funding the country's de- ed to lead the peace talks with the ed by alleged Daesh rocket attacks fense forces, Pompeo has consid- Taliban. The following details the that hit the edge of the presidential erable financial leverage to force chronology of the electoral dispute palace; Dr. Ghani goes ahead with the two squabbling leaders to over- as it transpired between March and his speech suggesting "I will stay come the impasse. May 2020, as per Afghan and inter- even if I have to sacrifice my head." national media outlets. April 2020 ● Dr. Abdullah Rejects Dr. Ghani's ● Discussions over power sharing March 202 offer of a power-sharing deal.- Af proposals as put forward by the ● Dr. Ghani and Dr. Abdullah dis- ghan media outlets report that Dr. two rivals continue to fail. Law-

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makers seek to end the standoff range of principles. Work on details for structural changes in govern- between Dr. Ghani and Dr. Abdul- is underway to finalize the agree- ment and electoral reforms.4 Also, lah. Members of the Meshrano Jir- ment.” new institutions and local govern- ga, the upper house of the Afghan ment structures should be estab- parliament, hold a special session ● Dr. Ghani and his political oppo- lished based on the people’s de- warning against the consequences nent Dr. Abdullah, the former chief mand to ease administrative affairs. of the ongoing political standoff. executive, sign a power sharing They warn that militants will bene- agreement to form a unity govern- ● As part of the agreement, Gener- fit from the situation if the political ment. According to the deal, Dr. al Abdul Rashid Dostum, a strong tensions remain unsolved. Abdullah will lead the National Dr. Abdullah supporter and ex-vice Reconciliation High Council and president, was granted the rank of ● The parliament’s two houses say he will be able to appoint half of marshal. The agreement also gives that they have ceased mediating be- President Ghani’s Cabinet and is- Gen. Dostum membership in the tween Dr. Ghani and his electoral sue executive orders. High Council of Government and rival Dr. Abdullah. Lawmakers and the National Security Council. The senators say that Dr. Ghani and did ● President Ghani celebrates the High Council of Government, an not obey their efforts to end the cri- deal as a national success story advising body to the president, will sis. suggesting that “today is a histori- be formed with the participation of cal day; we showed that we could national political leaders. ● Some local media outlets report reach an agreement without the me- that only a four-people group led diation of foreigners.” Dr. Abdullah ● Experts assert that while Dr. Ab- by former President Hamid Kar- says the dealcommits to forming a zai continues mediation efforts. “more inclusive, accountable and 4. Changing the current Single None Transferrable Lawmakers and senators say they competent administration” . Voting (SNTV) system –used for parliamentary would support the group’s efforts, elections, to the Multi-Dimensional Representation (MDR) system- which is supposed to be more con- but they themselves do not plan on ● The power sharing deal requires a ducive to political parties, is among the proposed mediating separately. constitutional amendment to allow electoral reforms.

● Commentators link the elector- al-power sharing crisis to the short- comings of the Afghan Constitution and its winner-take all electoral system.

May 2020 ● Dr. Abdullah says in a series of tweets that he and Dr. Ghani- reached tentative agreement on a range of principles.” In a tweet he adds: “Glad to assure the people of AFG that efforts by respected- na tional personalities to resolve the political crisis have borne fruit. We have made progress in negotiations & reached tentative agreement on a photo credit: Arg

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dullah has been given a 50 percent tice in order to change the “author- host an Iftar party at Arg, the presi- share in cabinet appointments, he itarian” structure of the centralized dential palace. , Mo- is to relinquish leading Council of system. hammad Yonos Qanoni, Mohammad Ministers meetings, a part of his Mohaqiq, Mohammad , portfolio during the National Unity ●The Taliban comments on the Zalmai Rasul, Batur Dustom, Mo- Government. power-sharing deal between Presi- hammad Yosof Ghazanfar, Hamdul- dent Ghani and Dr. Abdullah- now lah Moheb, Maasum Stanikzai and ● U.S. government, Afghanistan’s the President of the High Council Rangin Dadfar Spanta participate in neighboring countries and the UN for Peace and National Reconcilia- the meeting. President Ghani and Dr. welcome the power sharing deal tion, saying that what is occurring Abdullah thank the politicians for in Kabul between President Ghani in Kabul is “only repetition of past their mediation efforts and call the and Dr. Abdullah. It “will help en- failed experiences”. The spokesper- political agreement an important step able the formation of a peace agree- son for Taliban’s Qatar-based polit- toward national unity, hopping that it ment”, says UN chief Antonio Gu- ical office, Suhail Shaheen, tweets will provide a basis for peace, stability terres. that the solution to Afghanistan’s and end the imposed war in the coun- issue comes down to the implemen- try. ● The Jamiat-e Islami Party, the tation of U.S.-Taliban agreement. principal supporter of Dr. Abdul- ● Dr. Abdullah says he was ready to lah, denies involvement in Presi- ● Reports suggest that the U.S. De- sit and talk directly with the Taliban dent Ghani and Dr. Abdullah’s po- fense Department has not withheld representatives to end the war in the litical agreement. Jamiat-e Islami $1 billion in funding from Afghan country. The head of the Reconcil- Party led by former foreign min- security forces despite Secretary of iation Council, says he would not ister Salahuddin Rabbani, issues a State Mike Pompeo's vows to cut spare any efforts that lead Afghani- statement stating that the deal has such a sum "immediately". stan to a lasting and dignified peace. ignored the real demands of the According to him, the Eid ceasefire Afghan people, the national trust ● President Ghani and Dr. Abdullah by the Taliban could be a chance and belief in democracy. The state- for the beginning of the peace talks, ment maintains that the results of emphasizing that he would be pre- the September presidential election Dr. Abdullah says in a series pared for talks anytime and that the were invalid. of tweets that he and Dr. ceasefire should continue during Ghani “reached tentative the negotiations. This is despite the ● The Jamiat-e Islami Party pro- agreement on a range of Taliban’s suggestion that it will not claims that it will not back down recognize the Afghan government from its people‘s demand for jus- principles.” as legitimate. Regional update Colorful Reactions to the U.S. -Taliban Peace Deal; Regional Consensus On the Horizon?

Afghanistan is located within the Russia are considered to be the of U.S. presence in the region. From security realm of several region- main stakeholders of the Afghan among the Central Asian countries, al zones including Central Asia, peace process in the region. The Is- weary of the presence of Islamic South Asia and the Middle East. lamic Republic of Iran continues to extremists in their respective ter- Iran, Pakistan, India, China and pose as the most serious challenger ritories, Uzbekistan has been the

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most attentive in mediating af- ticipation of Afghanistan’s neigh- inside and outside Afghanistan that fairs. Does it raise the prospect for boring countries and mediation of could derail the peace agreement. seeking a Central Asian resolution the would result in Pakistan calls upon Afghan pol- to the conflict? Having the same peace. iticians to set aside their “person- concern about Islamic extremism, al interests” and use the moment China and Russia, as the two per- ● India reacts to the U.S.-Taliban to reach a peace agreement. Shah manent UN Security Council mem- peace deal suggesting that it would Mehmood Qureshi, Pakistan's for- bers, play high politics, with both extend all support to the “govern- eign minister, participated in the countries having hosted meetings ment and people” of Afghanistan. signing ceremony of the U.S.-Tali- with Afghan stakeholders and Tal- The Indian ambassador to Qatar, P. ban deal. iban representatives. Meanwhile, Kumaran represented India at the the Organization of Islamic Coop- signing ceremony of the U.S.-Tali- ● China pledges its support for the eration (OIC), remains supportive ban deal. U.S.-Taliban peace agreement in of the peace process without taking Afghanistan and calls for the “or- on a mediating role. ● In May 2020, U.S. Special Envoy derly and responsible” withdrawal for Afghanistan Reconciliation, of foreign troops to avoid a power ● Iran's Foreign Ministry says Zalmay Khalilzad calls upon India vacuum and possible resurgence that the “so-called peace deal be- to directly talk to the Taliban. Ac- of terrorism. Its Foreign Ministry tween the Taliban and the United cording to top-level sources, India spokesman says that the reconcilia- States” is an attempt by Washing- made it clear to Khalilzad that In- tion process should be “Afghan-led ton to justify its illegal presence in dia is willing to speak to the Tal- and Afghan-owned”. China says Afghanistan. “The United States iban “only” when it recognizes a that it is willing to “continue to be has no legal status to sign a peace democratic set-up, particularly the a supporter, mediator and facilita- deal or decide on the future of Af- elected Afghan government. tor of the peace and reconciliation ghanistan”, the ministry says in a process in Afghanistan” statement. Iran suggests that an In- ● Pakistan's foreign minister warns tra-Afghan dialogue with the par- the United States of “spoilers”, both ● The United States and Russia in a joint statement welcome the sign- ing of the U.S.-Taliban peace agree- ment as an important step towards ending the war and the opening of the door to intra-Afghan negotia- tions. U.S. and Russia reaffirm that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is not recognized by the interna- tional community and at the United Nations and that the internation- al community will not accept or support its re-establishment. The statement welcomes the Taliban committing to join a political pro- cess and their prospective role in a new post-settlement Afghan Islam- ic government.

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● At the 1261st Meeting of the Per- mark deal between the U.S. and the sue a similar format with Tajikistan manent Council of the Organiza- Taliban. Referring to OIC’s Summit and Turkmenistan.5 According to tion for Security and Cooperation decisions and Ministerial resolu- Eurasianet, the inaugural meeting, (OSCE) in Europe, the Delegation tions, as well as 2018 Makkah Dec- which took place on May 27 via a of the Republic of Uzbekistan re- laration adopted by the Internation- teleconference call between the for- leases a statement on the strategic al Ulema Conference for Peace and eign ministers of Uzbekistan and vision of the Uzbek President on Security in Afghanistan, Yousef Afghanistan, along with U.S. Un- ensuring regional security as it per- Al-Othaimeen, the OIC secretary der Secretary of State for Political tains to Afghanistan. The statement general reiterates OIC’s "strong de- Affairs, David Hale, focused on a suggests that the 2018 Tashkent termination and readiness" to con- familiar list of topics, including se- Conference accelerated the process tinue working with Afghanistan, curity, economic and trade ties, and of establishing peace in Afghani- its neighbors, and the internation- infrastructure projects of mutual stan. It points out that Uzbekistan al community “in laying down the interest. and Afghanistan share practical in- foundations of lasting peace, secu- terests: construction of new roads, rity, stability, reconciliation, devel- establishment of trade and econom- opment and prosperity in Afghani- 5. Turkmenistan with its central role in the TAPI ic ties, the export of Uzbek products stan and the region”. project, is another important player in regional securing developments. Turkmenistan too shows through Afghanistan to Iran and interest in forging strategic relationship with Af- South Asian countries such as India ● Eurasianet reposts on May 28 that ghanistan. on February 2019, President Ashraf Ghani and his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly and Pakistan, among other things. the United States is currently exper- Berdimuhamedow sign a “Strategic Partnership Agreement” in Ashgabat where both coun- imenting with a three-way dialogue tries pledge to expand bilateral relations on a ● The Organization of Islamic Co- with Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. number of key areas including economy, trade, transit and joint efforts towards fighting terror- operation (OIC) welcomes the land- Washington may reportedly pur- ism.

High profile attacks and level of violence around the country Militants attack despite the peace deal and Ramadan

The U.S. records an increase in Tal- March-May 2020, Daesh remains op- ● Gunmen target the 25th anniver- iban attacks against Afghan forces erative in Afghanistan and the Taliban sary of the death of Hazara leader after signing a peace deal with the proceeds with its spring offensive de- ceremony in Ka- insurgent group. Meanwhile, Wash- spite Ramadan. The United Nations bul killing at least 32 people injuring ington's Special Inspector General warns of an alarming uptick in vio- 60 more. High profile participants of for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SI- lence against civilians in the country. the gathering, including Dr. Abdul- GAR) reports that U.S.government The following details instances of vi- lah, escape the attack. Daesh takes refuses to release data on Taliban olence around the country, listing high responsibility. attacks in Afghanistan. SIGAR says profile attacks that took place between that U.S. forces have classified all March and May 2020. ● A suicide bomber attacks a prom- casualty information from Afghan inent Sikh temple (Gurdwara) in national defense and security forces March 2020 Kabul, killing at least 25 worship- for the first quarter of 2020. During pers and wounding 8. Daesh takes

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responsibility. Families of the vic- operated by Doctors without Bor- ● The Ministry of Interior (MoI) tims say they are “tired" of living in ders (Medecins Sans Frontieres) in informs the public that Taliban mil- Afghanistan, urging the government Kabul’s Dasht-e Barchi area, kill- itants set the bodies of five people to investigate attacks on their com- ing mothers and infants. At least 24 on fire after shooting them dead in munity. people including mothers, newborn South-eastern . babies and nurses are killed and 16 April 2020 others injured. In a second incident the same day, a suicide bomber kills ● The Taliban rejects a Ramadan at least 32 people at a funeral in Nan- cease-fire offer from the Afghan gov- garhar, in the east of the country. ernment, saying such a move is “not Daesh takes responsibility for the at- rational” amid disagreements over tack on the mourners in Nangarhar the peace process. as well as the attack on the MSF ma- ternity ward in Dasht-e Barchi. ● A suicide bombing in Kabul near an Afghan security forces facility, ANDSF resumes an offensive kills 3 people and wounds 15 others, posture against the Taliban the Interior Ministry says. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid says ● President Ghani orders the re- the militant group will investigate sumption of offensive operations whether its fighters were behind the against the Taliban and other ter- The Taliban rejects a bombing. rorist groups. Zabiullah Mujahid, Ramadan cease-fire a spokesperson of the Taliban, says offer from the Afghan May 2020 that “this declaration of war” by President Ghani proves that he is government, saying Attacks on Mosques, hospital looking to preserve his authority such a move is “not ra- and funeral gathering “under the shadow of war”. Mujahid tional” amid disagree- ● On 19th of May, gunmen attack a further suggests that the group is ful- ments over the peace mosque in Parwan, killing 11 wor- ly prepared to respond to any kind of process. shippers and wounding several oth- movement or attack. ers. Afghanistan's Ministry of Interi- or blames the Taliban and the armed ● In the aftermath of Nangarhar group denies responsibility. Angry and Dasht-e Barchi, the Afghan Na- residents carrying bodies of the vic- tional Defense and Security Forces tims protest in front of the provincial (ANDSF) releases a joint statement governor's office in Charikar, calling suggesting that the Taliban cannot on the government to identify perpe- deny responsibility for the deaths of trators of the attack. The same day civilians across Afghanistan. The gunmen attack a mosque in Khost ANDSF lists a number of high pro- killing 3 people and wounding 1. No file attacks on civilian targets carried one claims responsibility for the at- out by the Taliban in the past several tack. years, including attacks on hospitals and mosques. ● Gunmen storm a maternity ward

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Civilian casualties; UNAMA reports

According to a UNAMA report, one of the deadliest in the world for injured) and 168 women casualties 1,293 civilians were killed and in- civilians. “Of specific concern is (60 killed and 108 injured). How- jured across Afghanistan (533 killed the continued impact the conflict ever, the overall number of civil- and 760 injured) in the time from 1 has on women and children, with ian casualties in the first quarter January to 31 March 2020. This UNAMA having documented 417 represents a 29 percent decrease makes the conflict in Afghanistan child casualties (152 killed and 265 when compared to the first quarter of 2019, and is the lowest figure for a first quarter since 2012. UNAMA reiterates that the best way to pro- tect civilians from conflict and the impact of COVID-19 is to stop the fighting. It calls on all parties to the conflict in Afghanistan to imme- diately respond to the recent call by the UN Secretary-General for a global ceasefire, so that the nec- essary focus and resources can be directed to provide the required hu- manitarian response to COVID-19.” The below figure is a breakdown of civilian casualties as inflicted by Source: UNAMA parties to the conflict.

Ceasefire and sanctions monitoring Hopes for extending a three-day ceasefire: Taliban kills more soldiers

A three-day ceasefire between the confusion over the state of cease- and disruption in implementation Afghan army and the Taliban, on fire between the Afghan govern- of the U.S.-Taliban peace agree- the occasion of Eid-e Fitr, contin- ment and the Taliban comes from ment, the Taliban remains un- ues despite sporadic Taliban at- lack of clarity in the U.S.-Tali- der U.S. and UN sanctions. The tacks, officials say in Kabul. The ban agreement regarding security sanctions on the Taliban include ceasefire was only the second ob- partnership. “The Agreement pro- an assets freeze, a travel ban and served in almost 20 years of fight- vides that the Taliban commits to arms embargo. If the specifics of ing. The Afghan Independent Hu- not allow its members or territory the agreement hold, Washington man Rights Commission (AIHRC) to be used to threaten the “Unit- will remove its separate sanctions reports that during the three-day ed States and its allies,” though by Aug 27, 2020. The U.S.-Tali- ceasefire there was an 80 percent it does not clearly state whether ban peace agreement suggests that decrease in civilian casualties. Afghanistan is one of these “al- “with the start of intra-Afghan Commentators suggest that the lies.” Meanwhile, with the delay negotiations, the United States

June 2020 | 13 The Institute of War and Peace Studies -IWPS

will start diplomatic engagement attack, at least 14 soldiers of the even after these politicians made with other members of the Unit- border force were killed when Tal- an agreement on May 17, the Tal- ed Nations Security Council and iban fighters attack their outpost in iban declare its non-recognition”. Afghanistan for the removal of Paktia province along the border members of the Islamic Emirate with Pakistan, army officials say. of Afghanistan which is not rec- ognized by the United States as a ● Afghan government says efforts state and is known as the Taliban are under way to extend the cease- from the sanctions list with the fire as a Taliban delegation arrives aim of achieving this objective by in Kabul for talks. Javid Faisal, May 29, 2020.” spokesman for the Office of the National Security Council, tweets March 2020 that “the ceasefire is not over yet; there have been violations because ● The Taliban says it will resume it is a complicated technical pro- fighting Afghan forces, but would cess that requires good coordina- The US and NATO not target international troops. tion between both sides”. commander in Af- ● The U.S. carries out its first ghanistan, Gen. Scott The Taliban remains under sanc- airstrike on the Islamist mili- Miller, once again tant group since announcing the tions due to disagreements in Ka- warns that the Tali- bul U.S.-Taliban peace agreement. A ban should expect a U.S.-military spokesman says that ● By the end of May 2020, the Tal- response if they con- the “defensive strike” in Helmand iban remains under UN and U.S. province was aimed at disrupting tinue their attacks. sanctions. On May 29, the UN Taliban fighters “who were active- ly attacking an [Afghan security] Security Council was expected checkpoint”. to vote on lifting sanctions from the Taliban in accordance with April 2020 the agreement signed between the ● U.S. and NATO commander in movement and U.S. in Doha on Afghanistan Gen. Scott Miller- Miller suggests that the Taliban February 29. But the council de- should expect response if attacks lays the voting because conditions continue. U.S. general makes the stipulated by the deal are yet to be remarks during a visit to the head- met. Russia's presidential envoy to quarters of the Afghan special op- erations forces along with acting Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, tells Defense Minister Assadullah Kha- Anadolu Agency in an exclusive lid. interview: “This process is being delayed due to the unfinished ex- May 2020 change of prisoners between the ● Only one day after the ceasefire ends, officials in Parwan province parties to the conflict and the ab- say that at least 7 members of the sence of a negotiating team from Afghan security forces were killed Kabul, which was not formed due and 1 was wounded in a new Tali- to differences between [Afghan ban attack on a checkpoint in Sey- President] Ashraf Ghani and [his agerd district. In another major political rival] Dr. Abdullah. But

June 2020 | 14 Policy Brief

Tracking the withdrawal of foreign troops According to the timeline set out in a bases”. Reports on U.S. troops with- significantly reducing U.S. troop February 29 2020 agreement with the drawal from Afghanistan do not in- presence in Afghanistan earlier than Taliban, “the United States, its allies, clude exact statistics yet. Some U.S. planned, according to several defense and the Coalition will take the follow- officials say that they are already officials. The closely held discussions ing measures in the first one hundred ahead of the schedule. Contingencies spark in part by worries that President thirty-five (135) days: 1) They will re- such as political developments both in Donald Trump may want to withdraw duce the number of U.S. forces in Af- Afghanistan and U.S. and the corona- troops before voters go to the polls ghanistan to eight thousand six hun- virus outbreak affect U.S. troops with- in order to fulfill his 2016 campaign dred (8,600) and proportionally bring drawal. promise to bring troops home, offi- reduction in the number of its allies cials say. and Coalition forces. 2) The United ● U.S. and NATO officials say that States, its allies, and the Coalition U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan is ● American officials insist their- Af will withdraw all their forces from five down to nearly 8,600, well ahead of ghanistan drawdown will continue (5) military bases. B. With the com- the schedule agreed with Taliban in as planned following the peace deal. mitment and action on the obligations late February, in part because of con- But, for now, European diplomats of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan cerns about the spread of the coronavi- say they are not so sure. European which is not recognized by the United rus. At the same time reports suggest diplomats say the uncertainty in Af- States as a state and is known as the that the coronavirus pandemic dis- ghanistan will make it difficult for the Taliban in Part Two of this agreement, rupts troop withdrawal from Afghani- Americans to stick to their drawdown the United States, its allies, and the stan. The U.S. commander in Afghan- plan and for NATO to follow with its Coalition will execute the following: istan is halting American and allied own reductions. As of March 2018, 1) The United States, its allies, and the troops from entering Afghanistan and, there were roughly 12000 U.S. troops Coalition will complete withdrawal of in turn, preventing some troops from in Afghanistan. NATO and coalition all remaining forces from Afghanistan leaving, for the next month, American forces have another 8,700 troops in within the remaining nine and a half and European officials say. the country. (9.5) months. 2) The United States, its allies, and the Coalition will with- ● Senior U.S. military command- ● U.S. president says that though draw all their forces from remaining ers have been discussing options for U.S. is withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan, whenever necessary they can return. Donald Trump tweets on May 27, 2020: “We are acting as a police force, not the fighting force that we are, in Afghanistan. After 19 years, it is time for them to police their own country. Bring our soldiers back home but closely watch what is going on and strike with a thunder like never before, if necessary!”

● Although the drawdown is required by the Doha agreement, U.S. defense officials have said for many months that they wanted to reduce the number to 8,600, U.S. troop level supporting Afghan forces and conducting coun- terterrorism operations when Trump took office. photo credit: U.S. ARMY

June 2020 | 15 The Institute of War and Peace Studies -IWPS

Shadowing Khalilzad

ghans, in light of the past 40 years of conflict, need to agree on a formula where the bitter events of the past are not repeated. Khalilzad says that U.S., the Afghan government and the Taliban share responsibility to ensure a successful implementation of the peace deal.

● In his Nawroz message, Khalil- zad urges Afghan leaders to reach an agreement on an inclusive gov- ernment to end the political crisis. Khalilzad states that the best gift for Afghan leaders to give the country on the occasion of the New Year is taking advantage of the historic op- portunity for peace. He stresses that photo credit: U.S. Embassy they should work together, including U.S. Special Envoy for Afghanistan with TOLOnews, Khalilzad states with the Taliban, to protect the Af- Reconciliation, Khalilzad travels that a return to the Islamic Emirate ghan people from the Coronavirus. across the region to gain support for is not an option for either the Afghan the implementation of the U.S.-Tali- government or for the international ● Khalilzad meets with President ban peace agreement. In his advoca- community. cy activities Khalilzad calls upon the Afghan government and the Taliban ● Khalilzad welcomes Taliban’s Khalilzad calls upon to unite against the Daesh. He also statement denouncing the Islam- the Afghan government asks India to directly talk to the Tal- ic State Khorasan (IS-K) terrorist and the Taliban to unite iban; the first time a U.S. diplomat group. He further adds that the Tal- makes such a suggestion. iban statement mirrors Taliban’s against the Daesh. He public commitments to U.S. agree- also asks India to di- March 2020 ment against Al-Qaida and all other rectly talk to the Tali- ● Four days after signing the peace groups that threaten U.S. or its allies. ban; the first time a US agreement with the Taliban, on He stresses that Taliban’s statement March 4, 2020, Khalilzad makes on IS-K and their recent operations diplomat make such his first trip to Afghanistan. Holding against terrorists in Kunar are posi- suggestion. meetings with President Ghani, Dr. tive steps. Abdullah, Hamid Karzai, Abdulr- ab Rasul Sayyaf and several other ● In an interview with TOLOnews, political leaders, he discusses the Khalilzad expresses hope that the implementation mechanisms of the Intra-Afghan talks conclude in 100 peace agreement. Trust building be- days. He further emphasizes that the tween the negotiating parties is con- withdrawal of all U.S. troops from sidered an essential element of the Afghanistan in 14 months is con- intra-Afghan talks. In an interview dition-based. He suggests that Af-

June 2020 | 16 Policy Brief

Ghani, Chairman of the High Coun- the Afghan government that was External Affairs Minister (EAM), cil for National Reconciliation, Dr. hailed by Khalilzad as an “import- Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and Na- Abdullah, and other officials. Khalil- ant step” toward peace. According to tional Security Adviser (NSA), Ajit zad congratulates both leaders on the International Committee of the Doval, to brief them on progress in reaching an agreement on a new Red Cross, the Taliban on April 12 the peace process which at this point administration following a lengthy released 20 Afghan prisoners in the has been faltering for weeks. period of negotiations. Khalilzad southern province of Kandahar. discusses ongoing efforts to advance ● Khalilzad visits Islamabad on May the Afghan peace process, including May 2020 8. He meets with Chief of Army the need to reduce violence by all ● India should talk directly to the Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa. sides and release prisoners. Taliban, says Khalilzad. “India is an He discusses the ongoing efforts important force in Afghanistan and it by the United States to advance the April 2020 would be appropriate for that engage- Afghan peace process, seeking Pa- U.S. State Department says that ment to take place.” Mr. Khalilzad kistan’s support in pressing for a re- Khalilzad, is in Qatar to discuss tells The Hindu in an exclusive inter- duction in violence, the immediate “current challenges” in implement- view. Reconciliation in Afghanistan, start of intra-Afghan negotiations, ing the U.S.-Taliban peace deal with requires support from Pakistan, In- and assistance in helping obtain the the Taliban. The April 13 announce- dia and the international community freedom of American Mark Frerichs. ment comes after an initial prisoner is very important, Khalilzad says. Pakistan’s military leaders reaffirm exchange between the Taliban and In his trip to India, he meets with their support for U.S. efforts.

Doha tracker

March 2020 ● The Taliban welcomes the re- and meets with Taliban co-founder ● Taliban says prisoner release by lease of 900 prisoners, calling for all Mullah Baradar and Afghan offi- the Afghan Government to start by 5,000 to be released. cials, and reviews the implementa- the end of March. tion of the U.S.-Taliban deal. ● Khalilzad visits Doha and Kabul April 2020 ● Khalilzad visits Doha to discuss with the Taliban the reduction in vio- lence and the implementation of the U.S.-Taliban deal signed in February.

May 2020 ● The Taliban denies involvement in any attacks which have led to civilian losses and harm.

● As disappointments mount, the Eid truce comes as a surprise, prov- ing once again that the Taliban’s ceasefire decision, even if issued last minute, can reduce violence consid- erably. photo credit: Arg

June 2020 | 17 The Institute of War and Peace Studies -IWPS

Prisoners exchange

High-ranking Taliban official Anas March 14. The remaining 3,500 more Taliban inmates are released Haqqani, younger brother of the prisoners would be freed at a rate from Government’s prisons. In ex- Taliban's deputy chief, speaks to of 500 every two weeks once direct change, the Taliban frees 60 inmates reporters on the eve of a histor- talks begin with the Taliban, but from the Government side. ic agreement between the militant only if there has been a major reduc- group and the United States in Doha, tion in violent attacks. May 2020 Qatar. A former prisoner of the Af- ● The Afghan government halts the ghan government, Anas Haqqani April 2020 release of Taliban prisoners, saying once was considered a red line in ● On April 8, 2020, the Afghan the Taliban must bring its total num- prisoner exchange negotiations. government releases 100 Taliban ber of released security force mem- The U.S.-Taliban peace agreement prisoners. Javid Faisal, spokesman bers to 200, while so far they have paves the way for a quick prisoners’ for Afghanistan's Office of the -Na only freed 105.The Afghan gov- exchange between the Afghan gov- tional Security Council, says “The ernment contends that although the ernment and the Taliban. According Government of the Islamic Repub- Taliban has released a higher num- to the agreement, “up to five thou- lic of Afghanistan released 100 Tal- ber of detainees, not all of them are sand (5,000) prisoners of the Islam- iban prisoners today based on their ANDSF personnel. ic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is health condition, age and length of not recognized by the United States remaining sentence, as part of our ● The Afghan Government an- as a state and is known as the Tali- efforts for peace.” nounces that it will release 900 ban, and up to one thousand (1,000) Taliban prisoners on the occasion prisoners of the other side will be re- ● A small Taliban team meets the of a three-day ceasefire during the leased by March 10, 2020, the first government to discuss a compre- Eid-e Fitr holiday. The Taliban’s day of intra-Afghan negotiations.” hensive prisoner swap, but walks spokesman Suhail Shaheen in Doha Prisoners exchange takes place with out of the talks soon after officials says the insurgent group planned to delays and controversy. offer a piecemeal release of the pris- release “a remarkable number” of oners. The exchange has been be- government prisoners. He calls the March 2020 set with problems, with the Afghan Afghan Government’s release of ● President Ghani rejects the peace Government claiming the Taliban 900 “good progress.” deal's prisoner swap with the Tali- wants 15 of its “top commanders” ban. “The Government never com- to be released. On their part, the ● By May 28, 2020, Taliban spokes- mitted to set free 5,000 Taliban pris- fighters accuse Afghan authorities man Suhail Shaheen tweets that the oners as a precondition for talks with of wasting time. Taliban released another 80 Afghan the group”, says President Ghani. soldiers and government officials ● Taliban is set to release 20 Afghan from their jails in northern Baghlan ● President Ghani orders the Tali- government prisoners. The Taliban and Kunduz provinces, bringing the ban prisoner release to go through. announcement comes after at least number of captives freed so far by This marks a reversal of his initial 300 of their members were released the Taliban to 347. With the release refusal to release Taliban prisoners over the last few days by Kabul as of hundreds of Taliban fighters on only two days after being sworn in part of a swap. The Taliban cautions Tuesday, the government has freed as president for a second five-year that its decision to release a group 2,000 insurgents. term. In a decree touted as a good of prisoners does not mean that talks faith gesture to get talks started, with Kabul have resumed. President Ghani commits to release the first 1,500 Taliban prisoners ● The Office of the National Secu- in batches of 100 a day beginning rity Council (ONSC) says that 58

June 2020 | 18 Policy Brief

Peace Recommendations

In the following, we outline how par- Reduction in Violence (RIV) period ically regional and Afghan groups ties to the conflict and key stakehold- shows, the Taliban is unwilling to de- that have a vested interest in the con- ers can help create conditions and celerate violence in the lead-up to in- tinuation of this war. precursors needed for the formation tra-Afghan talks. Though the move- of peace, and, in specific, the lead- ment remains on war footing given ● Peace in Afghanistan remains a up to effective peace negotiations its adversarial relationship to the Af- priority for many international play- between the Afghan government and ghan government, the prevention of ers. The international community the Taliban. civilian casualties is of paramount would like to redefine and normalize importance, and a key precursor for its relationship with the post-peace To the Afghan Taliban the start of the intra-Afghan negoti- deal government to continue its sup- ations. port to Afghanistan. This marks yet ● The Taliban is not a monolithic another powerful incentive for the movement, and the most authori- ● Engage in an effective and mean- government to pursue peace diplo- tative faction, which is the one en- ingful intra-Afghan dialogue with macy and making intra-Afghan talks gaged in the peace process, differs the Afghan Government and Afghan a priority. from the militias and terrorist groups political groups. The Taliban has supported by outside actors who op- been on war-footing against the Af- ● The negotiation team of the Islam- pose a peace settlement in Afghani- ghan government and international ic Republic of Afghanistan should be stan. The good faith commitment of community for the past two decades, as inclusive as possible, and strive to the faction engaging in peace talks is but to become a legitimate gover- initiate intra-Afghan negotiations in best demonstrated by a conscientious nance stakeholder it will need to re- a dialogue-oriented posture. effort to minimize civilian casualties. linquish this posture. This will help shift the perception ● The Islamic Republic of Afghani- held by both the Afghan public as ● Security in Afghanistan hinges on stan should strive to preserve the ma- well as the international community Taliban. The movement is further- jor social gains of the last 18 years, of Taliban as an adversarial entity, more uniquely positioned to ensure particularly human rightsand wom- moving it in the direction of a legiti- a more equitable Afghan society for en’s rights. mate partner. people in all provinces of the country. To do so, the movement must aban- ● The COVID-19 crisis calls for ● Engage with the Afghan govern- don the adversarial optics of winners an urgent need for a humanitarian ment as well as the international and losers. With peace, all Afghans ceasefire and reduction in violence. community to reach a long-lasting and all stakeholders stand to win. political settlement. On the Tali- To the region, specifically Pakistan, ban’s part, this fully entitles them to ● The COVID-19 crisis calls for Iran and the Russian Federation ask hard questions about the failures an urgent need for a humanitarian of consecutive post-Bonn Afghan ceasefire and reduction in violence. ● Both Pakistan and Iran have a crit- governments, and how issues like ical role to play in bringing peace to corruption and poverty can joint- To the Afghan Government Afghanistan. An unstable Afghani- ly be rectified. Anti-corruption, in stan is a source of threat to the sta- particular, is a point of convergence ● Reduction in violence and unilat- bility of the region. On the other for the Taliban and the international eral ceasefires builds confidence and hand, the economic potential of Af- community; one which Taliban can paves the way for a meaningful in- ghanistan’s numerous shared borders leverage. tra-Afghan dialogue. could transform several, if not all, adjacent countries through trade and ● As its repeated violations of the ● Beware of peace spoilers, specif- wealth creation.

June 2020 | 19 The Institute of War and Peace Studies -IWPS

● These countries should strive to fa- cilitate and support the intra-Afghan negotiations through leveraging their influence over all parties to the con- flict.

● The region has to start looking at Afghanistan beyond a security lense, and rather consider the country as a key potential economic, geostrategic and trade partner.

To the United States, European Union and the International Com- munity

● Proponents of both the Islamic Republic and the Islamic Emirate understand the desire of the United States to leave Afghanistan. Howev- er, this should not take place at the cost of sustainable peace.

● The United States, along with its NATO partners, should begin out- lining the contours of a new mission for a post-peacesettlement in Af- ghanistan to continue supporting the Afghan National Defense and Se- curity Forces (ANDSF) in the long run.

● A rushed peace deal could jeopar- dize the achievements of the last 18 years.

● The timing, sequencing, agenda setting of both negotiation teams shouldcarefully calibrate to ensure a successful outcome of the intra-Af- ghan peace dialogue.

June 2020 | 20 Policy Brief

References

Abdul Qadir Sediqi, Orooj Hakimi, Islamic State attacks Kabul gathering, killing at least 32, March 6, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-attack/islamic-state-attacks-kabul-gathering-kill ing-at-least-32-idUSKBN20T0RO Abdullah ready for direct talks with militants, May 30, 2020, http://www.afghanistantimes.af/abdullah-ready-for-direct-talks-with-militants/ Abdullah to appoint new governors, June 20, 2020, http://www.afghanistantimes.af/abdullah-to-appoint-new-governors/ Afghan conflict: Taliban to resume attacking local forces after deal with US, March 2, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51706126 Afghan conflict: US and Taliban sign deal to end 18-year war, February 29, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51689443 Afghan forces killed as gov't urges Taliban to extend ceasefire, May 29, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/afghan-forces-killed-gov-urges-taliban-extend-ceasefire-200529052525519. html Afghan Government Halts Release of Taliban prisoners, May 11, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/govt-temporarily-stops-release-taliban-prisoners Afghan government releases 100 Taliban prisoners, April 8, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/afghan-government-release-100-taliban-prisoners-200408102844277.html Afghan President Ghani and Opposition Leader Abdullah Strike Deal, May 17, 2020, https://sputniknews.com/asia/202005171079330731-afghan-president-ghani-and-opposition-leader-abdullah-strike-deal/ Afghan Sikhs demand probe into IS attack, say 'tired' of living in Afghanistan, Mar 27, 2020, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/afghan-sikhs-demand-probe-into-is-attack-say-tired-of-living-in-afghanistan/ articleshow/74844486.cms?from=mdr Afghan woman politician sees Taliban talks as only hope, October 31, 0219, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/afghan-woman-politician-sees-taliban-talks-hope-191031090231604.html Afghanistan: Abdullah rejects Ashraf Ghani's offer of power-sharing deal, June 20, 2020, https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/afghanistan-abdullah-rejects-ashraf-ghanis-offer-of-power-shar ing-de.html Afghanistan: Ghani and Abdullah sign power-sharing deal, May 17, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/afghanistan-ghani-abdullah-sign-power-sharing-deal-200517105526348.html Ariananews, 58 more Taliban prisoners released by Afghan government: ONSC, April 24, 2020, https://ariananews.af/58-more-taliban-prisoners-released-by-afghan-government-onsc/ Asad Hashim, Pakistan warns US of 'spoilers' on US-Taliban deal in Afghanistan, March 2, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/pakistan-warns-spoilers-taliban-deal-afghanistan-200302093650382.html Barbara Starr, Pentagon commanders drawing up options for early Afghanistan troop withdrawal, May 26, 2020, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/26/politics/trump-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal/index.html Beatrice Walton, The US Taliban Agreement; Not a Ceasefire, or A Peace Agreement, And Other International law Issues, March 19, 2020, https://www.justsecurity.org/69154/the-u-s-taliban-agreement-not-a-ceasefire-or-a-peace-agreement-and-other-international-law-is sues/ Carlotta Gall, From Where Ex-Taliban Minister Sits, Demand Is Growing for Afghan Peace, September 9, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/10/world/asia/taliban-agha-jan-motasim.html China Pledges Support for US-Taliban Peace Agreement, The Diplomat, March 2, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/china-pledges-support-for-us-taliban-peace-agreement/ Colin Dwyer, David Welna, U.S. Launches 'Defensive Strike' At Taliban As Fragile Afghan Peace Deal Teeters, March 4, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/03/04/812019977/u-s-launches-defensive-strike-at-taliban-as-fragile-afghan-peace-deal-teeters Colm Quinn, Will Afghanistan’s Cease-Fire Open the Door for Peace? May 27, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/27/afghanistan-cease-fire-peace-libya-taliban-hong-kong/ David Velna, In Reversal, Afghan Leader Agrees To Release Taliban Prisoners, March 11, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/03/11/814640011/in-reversal-afghan-leader-agrees-to-release-taliban-prisoners

June 2020 | 21 The Institute of War and Peace Studies -IWPS

Elena Teslova, EXCLUSIVE: UNSC will not lift sanctions from Taliban: Russian envoy, May 28, 2020, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/exclusive-unsc-will-not-lift-sanctions-from-taliban-russian-envoy/1856195 Exclusive: U.S. has not cut Afghan security funds despite Pompeo vow of immediate slash - sources, May 20, 2020, https://www.firstpost.com/world/exclusive-u-s-has-not-cut-afghan-security-funds-despite-pompeo-vow-of-immediate-slash-sourc es-8390251.html Ghani named winner of Afghan poll as rival Abdullah rejects results, February 18, 2020, https://www.trtworld.com/asia/ghani-named-winner-of-afghan-poll-as-rival-abdullah-rejects-results-33903 Gulabuddin Ghubar, Nation Calls for Continued Ceasefire, Violence Down 80 Percent, May 27, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/nation-calls-continued-ceasefire-violence-down-80-percent Gulabuddin Ghubar, Political Agreement Includes Electoral Reform, May 22, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/political-agreement-includes-electoral-reform Gunmen attack Afghanistan mosque killing many worshippers, May 19, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/gunmen-attack-afghanistan-mosque-killing-worshippers-200519192619527.html Gunmen attack Sikh temple in Kabul, March 25, 2020, https://www.dw.com/en/gunmen-attack-sikh-temple-in-kabul/a-52907041, Hakimi-moi, https://moi.gov.af/en/node/4918 Hayatullah Amanat, Afghanistan-Turkmenistan Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement, February 21, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/afghanistan-turkmenistan-sign-strategic-partnership-agreement. How the Partnership Works in the Political Agreement, May 20, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/how-partnership-works-political-agreement? https://fawziakoofi.org/?page_id=2 India Loath to Welcome US-Taliban Agreement But Notes All Afghans Have Hailed Deal, March 1, 2020, The Wire Staff, https://thewire.in/diplomacy/india-notes-all-afghans-have-welcomed-us-taliban-pact-but-wont-itself-welcome-deal India non-committal on talks with Taliban, May 14, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-non-committal-on-talks-with-taliban/article31585162.ece India should talk directly to Taliban, says U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, March 8, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/interview/india-should-talk-to-directly-to-taliban-says-us-special-envoy-khalilzad/arti cle31537138. ece Iran rejects U.S.-Taliban peace deal, March 1, 2020, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/01/c_138833073.htm J.P. Lawrence, US Set to Sign Peace Deal With Taliban in Doha, March 28, 2020, https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/us-set-to-sign-peace-deal-with-taliban-in-doha-1.620673 Jamiat-e Islami Party Reject Involvement in Ghani & Abdullah's Political Agreement, May 18, 2020, http://reporterly.net/latest-stories/jamiat-e-islami-party-reject-involvement-in-ghani-abdullahs-political-agreement/ Jarrett Blanc, Afghanistan's Election Disputes Reflect Its Constitution's Flaws, March 12, 2020, https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/03/12/afghanistan-s-election-disputes-reflect-its-constitution-s-flaws-pub-81274 Jeyhun Aliyev, OIC welcomes US-Taliban peace deal, March 1, 2020, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/oic-welcomes-us-taliban- peace-deal/1750348 Joint Statement of the Afghan Security and Defense Forces (ANDSF), https://moi.gov.af/en/node/4918 Kathy Gannon and Tameem Akhgar, Afghan Government Releases Hundreds of Taliban prisoners as Part of Peace deal with US, May 26, 2020, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/26/afghan-government-releases-hundreds-of-taliban-prisoners-as-part-of- peace-deal-with-us/ Kathy Gannon and Tameem Akhgar, Taliban in Kabul to discuss prisoner releases under US peace deal, May 28, 2020, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/28/taliban-in-kabul-to-discuss-prisoner-releases-under-us-peace-deal/ Khalilzad Hopes Intra-Afghan Talks Conclude in '100 Days, March 12, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/khalilzad-hopes-intra-afghan-talks-conclude-100-days Khalilzad Urges Afghan Leaders to Agree on an Inclusive Govt’s, May 20, 2020, http://reporterly.net/live/newsfeed/friday-march-20-2020/khalilzad-urges-afghan-leaders-to-agree-on-an-inclusive-govts/ Khalilzad Welcomes Taliban’s Statement Denouncing IS-K, March 17, 2020, http://reporterly.net/live/newsfeed/tuesday-march-17-2020/khalilzad-welcomes-talibans-statement-denouncing-is-k/ Khalilzad: India Should Talk Directly to Taliban, May 09, 2020,

June 2020 | 22 Policy Brief

https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/khalilzad-india-should-talk-directly-taliban Lawmakers Seek End to Ghani-Abdullah Standoff, April 19, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/lawmakers-seek-end-ghani-abdullah-standoff Mashal, M., Faizi, F., & Rahim, N. Ghani Takes the Oath of Afghan President. His Rival Does, Too. March 09, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/world/asia/afghanistan-president-inauguration-ghani-abdullah-.html Massoud Ansar, Ghani and Abdullah Divided over Negotiating Team, March 1, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/ghani-and-abdullah-divided-over-negotiating-teamz Mujeeb Mashal, Afghan President Orders Taliban Prisoner Release, March 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/world/asia/taliban-prisoner-release.html Nayanima Basu, India unlikely to talk to Taliban directly despite US push to change stance, 9 May, 2020, https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-unlikely-to-talk-to-taliban-directly-despite-us-push-to-change-stance/417975/ No more mediation to end Ghani-Abdullah standoff', April 29, 2020, http://www.afghanistantimes.af/no-more-mediation-to-end-ghani-abdullah-standoff/ Over 40 worshipers killed and injured in Afghanistan mosque attacks during Ramadan, May 20,2020, http://www.1tvnews.af/en/news/afghanistan/42101-over-40-worshipers-killed-and-injured-in-afghanistan-mosque-attacks-during-ra madan- Political Agreement Includes Electoral Reform, June 20, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/political-agreement-includes-electoral-reform President Ghani rejects peace deal's prisoner swap with Taliban, March 1, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/president-ghani-rejects-peace-deal-prisoner-swap-taliban-200301082216180.html Pti, Here, P. E., -, S. G., -, T. D., & -, S. R, Ghani-Abdullah pact will help enable peace agreement, says UN chief Antonio Guterres, May 19, 2020, https://theprint.in/world/ghani-abdullah-pact-will-help-enable-peace-agreement-says-un-chief-antonio-guterres/424844/ Report On the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, 2020 Quarterly Report, https://unama.unmissions.org/protection-of-civilians-reports Robert Burns, US on track to pull troops from Afghanistan despite turmoil, May 15, 2020, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/15/us-on-track-to-pull-troops-from-afghanistan-despite-turmoil/ Sediqi, A. Q, Taliban says prisoner release by Afghan government to start by end of March, March 25, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-taliban-prisoners/taliban-says-prisoner-release-by-afghan-government-to-start-by- end-of-march-idUSKBN21C2IU Seven Afghan local soldiers killed in Taliban attack in Parwan: official, May 28, 2020, http://www.1tvnews.af/en/news/afghanistan/42157-seven-afghan-local-soldiers-killed-in-taliban-attack-in-parwan-official- Sharif Amiry, Khalilzad to Discuss Prisoner Exchange: Politicians, October 28, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/khalilzad-discuss-prisoner-exchange-politicians Statement by the Delegation of the Republic of Uzbekistan at the 1261st Meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council, March 9, 2020, https://www.osce.org/permanent-council/448375?download=true Statement on the Visit to Afghanistan by Ambassador Khalilzad, May 20, 2020, https://af.usembassy.gov/statement-on-the-visit-to-afghanistan-by-ambassador-khalilzad/ Statement on the Visit to Afghanistan by Ambassador Khalilzad, May 21, 2020, https://af.usembassy.gov/statement-on-the-visit-to-afghanistan-by-ambassador-khalilzad/ Statement on the Visit to Pakistan by Ambassador Khalilzad. May 9, 2020, https://pk.usembassy.gov/statement-on-the-visit-to-pakistan-by-ambassador-khalilzad/ Suhasini Haidar, U.S. recognises India’s role in Afghanistan: Khalilzad, May 7, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/us-recognises-indias-role-in-afghanistan-khalilzad/article31529421.ece Taliban Attacks Increased After Peace Deal, Counter To U.S. Hopes, May 1, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/taliban-attacks-increased-after-peace-deal-counter-to-u-s-hopes-11588366531 Taliban militants set the bodies of 5 people on fire after shooting them dead, May 18, 2020, https://www.khaama.com/taliban-militants-set-the-bodies-of-5-people-on-fire-after-shooting-them-dead-08839/ Taliban Rejects Afghan Cease-Fire Offer During Ramadan, April 24, 2020, https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/taliban-rejects-afghan-cease-fire-offer-during-ramadan/30574354.html Taliban set to release 20 Afghan government prisoners, April 12, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/taliban-set-release-20-afghan-government-prisoners-200412085539496.html

June 2020 | 23 The Institute of War and Peace Studies -IWPS

Taliban Should Expect Response If Attacks Continue: Gen. Miller, April 28, 2020, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/taliban-should-expect-response-if-attacks-continue-gen-miller Taliban slams Ghani-Abdullah deal as 'repeat of early mistakes', April 29, 2020, http://www.afghanistantimes.af/taliban-slams-ghani-abdullah-deal-as-repeat-of-early-mistakes/ Taliban strongly reacts to Ghani’s order to Afghan forces to revive offensive operations, May 13, 2020, https://www.khaama.com/taliban-strongly-reacts-to-ghanis-order-to-afghan-forces-to-revive-offensive-operations-07812/ Tameem Akhgar, Watchdog group says US not releasing data on Taliban attacks, May 1, 2020, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/01/watchdog-group-says-us-not-releasing-data-on-taliban-attacks/ The Right Livelihood Foundation, https://www.rightlivelihoodaward.org/laureates/sima-samar/ The United States spearheads the creation of a new three-way line of diplomatic dialogue in Central Asia, June 1, 2020, https://asiaplustj.info/en/news/centralasia/20200601/the-united-states-spearheads-the-creation-of-a-new-three-way-line-of-diplomatic- dialogue-in-central-asia Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Julian E. Barnes, Coronavirus Disrupts Troop Withdrawal in Afghanistan, May 26, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/world/asia/coronavirus-withdrawal-afghanistan.html Truce continues despite some sporadic attacks by Taliban, Faizi Mansour, May 29, 2020, http://www.afghanistantimes.af/truce-continues-despite-some-sporadic-attacks-by-taliban/ Trump, D. J, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1265612405784162304 U.N. expresses alarm at violence in Afghanistan as April civilian casualties jump, May 19, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-attacks-casualties/u-n-expresses-alarm-at-violence-in-afghanistan-as-april-civilian-ca sualties-jump-idUSKBN22V12P U.S. Blames Islamic State For Two Deadly Afghan Attacks, Urges Commitment To Peace Plan, May 15, 2020, https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/u-s-blames-islamic-state-for-two-deadly-afghan-attacks-urges-commitment-to-peace-plan/30613363.html U.S. Envoy Traveling To Qatar To Discuss Peace Deal With Taliban, April 13, 2020, https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/u-s-envoy-calls-afghan-prisoner-releases-important-step-toward-peace/30550110.html US cuts Afghan aid by $1B due to Ghani-Abdullah feud, May 23, 2020, https://www.trtworld.com/asia/us-cuts-afghan-aid-by-1b-due-to-ghani-abdullah-feud-34797 US Envoy to hold talks in Doha as Kabul initiates Intra-Afghan Negotiations: US State Dept, May 19, 2020, https://nation.com.pk/19-May-2020/us-envoy-to-hold-talks-in-doha-as-kabul-initiates-intra-afghan-negotiations-us-state-dept US rejects formation of parallel government in Afghanistan, March 10, 2020, https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/us-rejects-formation-of-parallel-government-in-afghanistan/1757199 US troop pullout from Afghanistan ahead of schedule, May 28, 2020, https://www.trtworld.com/asia/us-troop-pullout-from-afghanistan-ahead-of-schedule-36702 US, Russia Release Joint Statement on US-Taliban Deal Signed in Qatar, March 7, 2020, http://reporterly.net/live/newsfeed/saturday-march-7-2020/us-russia-release-joint-statement-on-us-taliban-deal-signed-in-qatar/

June 2020 | 24 www.iwps.org.af [email protected] @IWPSAfghanistan @IWPSAfghanistan +93(0) 799534834