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Entrepreneurial Economy” Faculty for International Economics, Finance and Business UDG University Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” Faculty for International Economics, Finance and Business UDG University Entrepreneurial Economy Podgorica, September 2012 "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII “Entrepreneurial economy” Volume XVIII Editor in Chief: Prof. dr Veselin Vukotic Chief Editorial Board: Dr Mladjen Sljivancanin; Dr Danilo Sukovic; Dr Miroslav Prokopijevic; Dr Maja Drakic-Grgur; Dr Milica Vukotic; Dr Igor Luksic Editorial Board: Dr Stojan Dabic; Dr Petar Ivanovic; Dr Zoran Djikanovic; Dr Maja Bacovic; Dr Milorad Katnic; Dr Vlado Kavaric; Dr Jadranka Kaludjerovic; Dr Nina Vujosevic; Dr Zvezdan Vukanovic; Ivana Stesevic, MSci, Jelena Boljevic, MSci; Nikola Perovic, MSci Publisher: Postgraduate Studies »Entrepreneurial Economy«, Faculty for International Economics, Finance and Business, University of Donja Gorica - UDG, Montenegro Technical Editor: Dragan Knezevic Cover Design: Nebojsa Klacar, studio »Arhangel«, Belgrade Director of Postgraduate Studies: Professor Veselin Vukotic, Montenegro President of the Council of Postgraduate Studies: Professor Steve Pejovich, Texas, USA Address: Donja Gorica bb, Podgorica, 81000, Crna Gora Phone/fax: +382 (0)20 410 777 e-mail: [email protected] web: www.udg.edu.me ISSN 2661-2704 Printed edition: 700 copies Printed by: Montcarton, Podgorica "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII Introductory remarks Economic journal „Entrepreneurial Economy“ celebrates 10th anniversary of publishing this year. Seventeen volumes, some of which had several issues, have been published from 2002. This is the Volume XVIII. The journal is published by the Foundation „Entrepreneurial Economy“ of the Postgraduate studies „Entrepreneurial Economy“, Faculty for International Economics, Finance and Business, University of Donja Gorica, Montenegro. Demographic trends have been changing the picture of the world in previous centuries. However, projections say that demographic flows will remain strong challenge for contemporary world in following decades, as well. Changes in population have strong influence on economy of certain areas and global economies overall, but also raise an issue of sustainability of development. That is the reason that papers in this volume deal with very different aspects of demographic and development challenges contemporary world is facing. All papers are written in English which is broadening the market of potential readers of this economic journal. Editor in Chief Professor Veselin Vukotic 3 "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII Authors 1. Maja Bacovic, PhD, Faculty of Economics, University of Montenegro; holds a Doctorate from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (fourth generation); 2. Zoran Djikanovic, PhD, Security and Exchange Commission of Montenegro; holds a Doctorate from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (second generation); 3. Milica Dakovic, MSci, E3 Consulting Ltd; guest student at Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy”; 4. Maja Drakic-Grgur, PhD, Faculty for International Economics, Finance and Business, University UDG; holds a Doctorate from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (sixth generation); 5. Vojin Golubovic, MSci, Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses; holds a Master’s Degree from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (ninth generation); 6. Petar Ivanovic, PhD, Montenegrin Investment Promotion Agency; holds a Doctorate from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy”; 7. Ivan Jovetic, MSci, Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses; holds a Master’s Degree from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (eighth generation); 8. Jadranka Kaludjerovic, PhD, Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses; holds a Doctorate from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy”(fifth generation); 9. Milorad Katnic, PhD, Ministry of Finance, Government of Montenegro, holds a Doctorate from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy”(fifth generation); 10. Ana Krsmanovic, MSci, Ministry of Finance, Government of Montenegro, holds a Master's Degree from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy”(fifth generation); 11. Milika Mirkovic, MSci, Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses; holds a Master’s Degree from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (ninth generation); 12. Marija Orlandic, MSci, Faculty for International Economics, Finance and Business, University UDG; holds a Master’s Degree from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (ninth generation); 13. Dragana Radevic, PhD, The Center for Entrepreneurship and Economic Development (CEED); holds a Doctorate from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (fifth generation); In alphabetical order (by last name) 4 "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII 14. Gordana Radojevic, MSci, MONSTAT - Statistical Office of Montenegro; holds a Master’s Degree from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (seventh generation); 15. Ivana Stesevic, MSci, Faculty for International Economics, Finance and Business, University UDG; holds a Master’s Degree from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” (seventh generation); 16. Marija Vugdelic, PhD, Faculty for Food Technology, Food Safety and Ecology, University UDG; lecturer at Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy”; 17. Milica Vukotic, PhD, Faculty for Information Systems and Technologies, University UDG; holds a Doctorate from Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy”; 18. Veselin Vukotic, PhD, University UDG; Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses; Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade; The Founder, Director and Professor of Postgraduate Studies “Entrepreneurial Economy” 5 "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII 6 "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII Contents: 1. Veselin Vukotic, Demographic Megachanges ........................................................ 9 2. Maja Bacovic, Population trends and Economic Development of Montenegro in XXI century ......................................................................................................... 23 3. Zoran Djikanovic, Need for Pension Reform in Europe...................................... 39 4. Petar Ivanovic, Dragana Radevic, Has Malthus been right? .............................. 46 5. Milica Vukotic, Healthcare system and demographic development .................... 60 6. Maja Drakic-Grgur, Ivana Stesevic, Demographic trends, pension reform and labor market in Montenegro ................................................................................. 70 7. Jadranka Kaludjerovic, Gordana Radojevic, Impact of migration on labour market and social exclusion in Montenegro ........................................................ 86 8. Milorad Katnic, Ana Krsmanovic, The Economic Consequences of Demographic Trends ................................................................................................................ 100 9. Marija Vugdelic, From biodiversity to economy – there is only one oikos ....... 113 10. Vojin Golubovic, Milika Mirkovic, The costs caused by the ageing of population and the impact on the competitiveness of the economy .................................... 125 11. Ivan Jovetic, Civilization and terrorism: Links and Future? .............................. 137 12. Milica Dakovic, Demography and Energy......................................................... 152 13. Marija Orlandic, Change in Population and Sustainable Development ............ 162 7 "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII 8 "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII Veselin Vukotic Demographic Megachanges Abstract: World population is growing rapidly. Is the world prepared for the consequences? Are certain countries prepared for the consequences? Are Montenegro and Serbia, as countries with evidently slow population growth, prepared for new demographic megatrends? If world is becoming more "flat", as Thomas Friedman says, how will new "distribution" of population in the world look like? Is the history of world migrations going to repeat? Have we and how much neglected demographic research in Montenegro and Serbia, despite the fact that Demography courses are organized at some universities, which is encouraging fact? All these issues are discussed in this paper. Key words: demography, population, migration, globalization, state organization, entrepreneurship 1. Introduction World population is growing rapidly. Is the world prepared for the consequences of this rapid growth? Are certain states prepared for the consequences? Stagnation, i.e. slow population growth of Montenegro and Serbia is evident in last decades. Are these countries prepared for the consequences of these local demographic megatrends? If the world is becoming more flat (Thomas Freedman), how will the new "redistribution" of population look like? Will the new flat world enable migrations from overpopulated and fast-growing areas to those where population stagnate or decline? In other words, will the history of migrations repeat, as for example in the great migration from Asia to Europe 1000 years before Christ? Why have we neglected demographic research in Montenegro and Serbia? There are some exceptions, so some universities organize Demography courses... However, there are very few research projects in demography research. What are the reasons for such situation with demography research? Faculty for International Economics, Finance and Business, University of Donja Gorica, UDG, Podgorica; Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses, Podgorica; Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade 9 "Entrepreneurial Economy" Volume XVIII
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