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EU Candidate and Pre-Accession Countries Economic Quarterly CCEQ. 1/2012

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EU Candidate and Pre-Accession Countries Economic Quarterly CCEQ. 1/2012 ISSN: 1830-6392 EU CANDIDATE AND PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES ECONOMIC QUARTERLY CCEQ 1/2012 CANDIDATE AND PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES' ECONOMIC QUARTERLY 1/2012 This paper is published on-line four times a year (January, April, July and September). European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate-General Directorate D – International Economic and Financial Affairs Unit D1 – Candidate and Pre-Candidate Countries KC-AO-12-001-EN-N © European Union, 2012 © European Union, 2012. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Data whose source is not the European Union as identified in tables and charts of this publication, is property of the named third party and therefore authorisation for its reproduction must be sought directly with the source. CANDIDATE AND PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES' ECONOMIC QUARTERLY *************** Contents OVERVIEW..................................................................................................3 CROATIA .....................................................................................................5 THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA...............9 ICELAND....................................................................................................13 MONTENEGRO.........................................................................................17 SERBIA .......................................................................................................21 TURKEY .....................................................................................................25 ALBANIA....................................................................................................29 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA..............................................................33 KOSOVO*...................................................................................................37 *as defined by UNSCR 1244 OVERVIEW The pattern of growth in the pre-accession lower surpluses in the trade with goods and services countries in the fourth quarter of 2011 over the last two quarters its current account deficit generally mirrored the worsening global narrowed in 2011(7.1%). In the Western Balkans, (and EU) environment. Growth rates the picture is mixed. The current account deficit, moderated, sometimes significantly, and although still elevated, declined to 19% of GDP in were too sluggish to make a major 2011 in Montenegro. It hardly improved in Croatia contribution to the reduction of very high (1% of GDP). In all other countries the deficit unemployment. Effects on GDP growth for deteriorated, either significantly (Albania, Bosnia the whole year ranged from a slight and Herzegovina, Serbia) or to a lim ited extent (the slowdown in Turkey (8.5% as compared former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and with 9.2% in 2010) to zero growth in Kosovo). In Serbia, the u nderlying deterioration of the trade bal ance which continued in the first two Croatia, following two years of recession. months of 2012 is mainly due to the deterioration of In most other countries, growth continued exports and t hus may reflect to some extent trade to be positive and stronger than in 2010. spillovers effects from the worsening situation of its However, judging from available main partners. In the oth er countries the picture is indicators, a further weakening in the first more nuanced and the effects of trade spillovers less quarter 2012 is to be expected in some discernible. countries such as Croatia and Serbia. The disinflation process, partly reflecting the The labour market conditions generally deteriorated decline of commodity prices in response to in the fourth quarter in tandem with the deceleration weaker global demand, continued in the 4th in economic activity an d contributed to higher quarter and further in the 1st quarter 2012 unemployment rates for the whole y ear as compared with 2010 i n Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and despite the increase in oil prices since mid- Serbia. Unemployment declined, nevertheless, i n December 2011. 2011 in Turkey, Iceland , the former Yugoslav While decelerating m arkedly, GDP growth still Republic of Macedonia and Albania. reached 5.2% (y ear-on-year) in Turkey in Q4, While average inflation increas ed in many countries driven by both domestic demand and net exports in 2011, the disinflation process that started in mid as export com petitiveness improved, primarily 2011, in line with the downward correction of due to a weaker lira. In 2011, growth at 8.5% was commodity prices, generally continued in the fourth only slightly down from 9.2% in 2010. In quarter and in early 2012. A m ain exception is Iceland, real growth stil l primarily driven by Iceland where the central bank subsequently raised private consumption, was also lower (2.8%) in for the third time its policy rate in March. In Turkey, Q4, bringing the growth rate for 20 11 to 3.1%, a where consumer price in flation still amounted to marked improvement compared to the 4% output 10.4% in March, inflationary pressures appear to be drop in 2010. In the W estern Balkans, growth diminishing. Monetary policy was eased in also moderated in the fourth quarter althoug h the February. In line with deceler ating inflation, ke y magnitude of the slowdown differed across policy rates were also cut in Serbia in four countries. Croatia, which had started to recover consecutive steps from October to January and in modestly in the previous two quarters, was Albania in January and March. hardest hit as GDP decrea sed by 0.4%. Despite a further deceleration in the 4th quarter in Serbia (to Lending activities have so mewhat expanded, 0.4%) and in the form er Yugoslav Republic of suggesting that adverse financial spillovers may Macedonia (to 0.2%), output growth for the year have been limited. Credit growth further increased in as a whole a ccelerated to respectively 1.6% and 2011 in Albania, Kosovo, the former Yugoslav 3%, thanks to strong performance in the first half Republic of Macedonia and turned positive in of the year. Bosnia and Herzegovina. Adjusted for exchange rate effects, credit growth sta gnated at a low level in Recent trade data suggest a decline of the current Croatia. Although dom estic credit still recorded a account deficit which had been ballo oning in negative growth rate in 2011, it also turned positive Turkey in 2 011 (10% of GDP) as a result of in Iceland in the four th quarter and further strong domestic demand. In Iceland, despite accelerated. It also reaccelerated in Serbia in early 3 2012, after a significant slowdown. In Turke y, Fiscal consolidation continued in 2011 in m ost of credit growth slowed to 21% in February, i.e. the pre-accession countries which recorded a lower significantly below the central bank cap of 25% deficit than in 2010. In Kosovo the deficit was 1.8% but may have reaccelerated in March. of GDP or about 0 .8 percentage point lower than Montenegro is the onl y country where credit expected. The general govern ment balance recorded growth remained still negative. The quality of the a deficit of 4.4% of GDP in Iceland, much lower loan portfolio, however, continued to deteriorate than 10% a year before. Turkey also reported strong and NPLs further increas ed in the 4 th quarter in fiscal results with a deficit am ounting to 1.5% of Albania, Croatia and Serbia. NPLs remain GDP, down fro m 3.6% in 2010. The form er exceptionally high in Iceland (25% of total loans) Republic of Macedonia maintained its deficit at but also in Serbia (19.2 %), Albania (18.9% ), 2.5% of GDP. However, fiscal deficits increased in Montenegro (15.5%) despite their recent Albania and Croatia and slightl y in Serbia. reduction and in Bosn ia and Herzegovina (11.8%). 4 European Commission, ECFIN-D-1 Candidate and potential candidate countries: Summary table ECFIN Nov . Forecast 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Gross domestic product (in real terms, annual % change) Croatia 5.1 2.2 -6.0 -1.2 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.7 -0.4 : n.a. n.a. n.a. The former Yugoslav 6.2 5.1 -1.0 1.7 3.2 2.5 3.5 2.3 0.2 : n.a. n.a. n.a. Republic of Macedonia Iceland 6.0 1.3 -6.8 -4.0 3.1 1.5 2.7 3.8 2.7 : n.a. n.a. n.a. Montenegro 10.7 6.9 -5.7 2.5 2.7f 2.2 3.2 3.5 : : n.a. n.a. n.a. Serbia 5.4 3.8 -3.5 1.0 1.6 : : 0.7 0.4 : n.a. n.a. n.a. Turkey 4.7 0.7 -4.8 9.2 8.5 3.0 4.1 8.4 5.2 : n.a. n.a. n.a. Albania 5.9 7.5 3.3 4.1 3.0e : : 2.6 : : n.a. n.a. n.a. Bosnia and Herzegovina 6.1 5.6 -2.9 0.7 2.4e : : : : : n.a. n.a. n.a. Kosovo* 6.3 6.9 2.9 3.9 : : : : : : n.a. n.a. n.a. Unemployment (LFS, in % of w orkforce) Croatia 9.6 8.4 9.1 11.8 13.5 13.2 12.4 12.2 13.9 : n.a. n.a. n.a. The former Yugoslav 34.9 33.8 32.2 32.0 31.4 30.0 28.5 31.2 31.8 : n.a. n.a. n.a. Republic of Macedonia Iceland 2.3 3.0 7.2 7.5 7.1 7.3 6.7 5.9 6.0 : n.a. n.a. n.a. Montenegro 11.9 10.7 11.4 12.2 11.6 : : 11.1 11.6 : 11.9 11.9 : Serbia 18.1 13.6 16.1 20.0 22.2 : : 23.7 : : : : : Turkey 9.9 11.0 14.1 12.0 9.8 10.3 10.4 9.2 9.1 : : : : Albania 13.4 12.8 13.0 13.7 13.3 : : 13.3 13.3 : : : : Bosnia and Herzegovina 42.9 40.6 42.7 42.7 43.8 : : 43.3 43.8 : 44.0 : : Kosovo* 43.6 47.5 45.4 : : : : : : : : : : Current account balance (% of GDP)** Croatia -7.2 -8.8 -5.0 -1.0 -1.2f -0.6 -1.4 0.4 : : n.a.
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