Attachment A New Zealand Transport Agency Additional Waitemata Harbour Crossing Preliminary Business Case Restrictions of this report This report has been prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) for the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) solely for the purposes stated herein and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. We accept no liability to any party should it be used for any purpose other than that for which it was prepared. This Report is strictly confidential and (save to the extent required by applicable law and/or regulation) must not be released to any third party without our express written consent which is at our sole discretion. To the fullest extent permitted by law, PwC accepts no duty of care to any third party in connection with the provision of this Report and/or any related information or explanation (together, the “Information”). Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort (including without limitation, negligence) or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, PwC accepts no liability of any kind to any third party and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any third party acting or refraining to act in reliance on the Information. We have not independently verified the accuracy of information provided to us, and have not conducted any form of audit in respect of NZTA. Accordingly, we express no opinion on the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of the information provided to us and upon which we have relied. The statements and opinions expressed herein have been made in good faith, and on the basis that all information relied upon is true and accurate in all material respects, and not misleading by reason of omission or otherwise. The statements and opinions expressed in this report are based on information available as at the date of the report. We reserve the right, but will be under no obligation, to review or amend our Report, if any additional information, which was in existence on the date of this report was not brought to our attention, or subsequently comes to light. We have relied on forecasts and assumptions prepared by NZTA, Beca, SKM and other parties about future events which, by their nature, are not able to be independently verified. Inevitably, some assumptions may not materialise and unanticipated events and circumstances are likely to occur. Therefore, actual results in the future will vary from the forecasts upon which we have relied. These variations may be material. This report is issued pursuant to the terms and conditions set out in our contract with NZTA. PricewaterhouseCoopers New Zealand Institute of Economic Research i NZ Transport Agency Contents Background reports to be read in conjunction with the Preliminary Business Case......................................................vii 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Dimensions underpinning analysis.................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Relationship of this Preliminary Business Case to Treasury and NZTA guidance ..................................... 1 2. Project Objectives and Scope .................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Background - Organisational Overview.............................................................................................. 6 2.2 Integrated Planning ........................................................................................................................ 7 3. Description of Service Need ...................................................................................................................... 9 3.1 Background .................................................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Current AHB Corridor Constraints..................................................................................................... 9 3.3 Demand on the Northern Busway ................................................................................................... 10 3.4 Network Resilience ...................................................................................................................... 11 3.5 Freight Management .................................................................................................................... 12 3.6 Active Modes .............................................................................................................................. 13 3.7 Future Transport Network Development .......................................................................................... 13 3.8 Addressing Future Constraints....................................................................................................... 13 3.9 Wider impacts on the New Zealand economy and competitiveness...................................................... 14 4. Key Assumptions................................................................................................................................... 18 4.1 Assumptions around the Do-Minimum............................................................................................. 18 4.2 Assumptions around the Engineering Options .................................................................................. 18 4.3 Assumptions for Economic Analysis................................................................................................ 20 PricewaterhouseCoopers New Zealand Institute of Economic Research ii 4.4 Assumptions around the Funding and Preliminary Business Case ....................................................... 22 5. Summary of Options .............................................................................................................................. 25 5.1 Defining the bridge option and the tunnel option ............................................................................... 25 5.2 Consideration of the retention of the AHB ........................................................................................ 27 6. Financial Analysis .................................................................................................................................. 30 6.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 30 7. Economic Analysis................................................................................................................................. 44 8. Risk Assessment and Management.......................................................................................................... 56 8.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 56 8.2 Background ................................................................................................................................ 56 8.3 Summary of Key Project Risks....................................................................................................... 59 8.4 Risk profiles of the defined options ................................................................................................. 64 8.5 Opportunities for the Project .......................................................................................................... 65 8.6 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................. 67 9. Procurement ......................................................................................................................................... 68 9.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 68 9.2 Procurement objectives ................................................................................................................ 68 9.3 Procurement Options.................................................................................................................... 69 9.4 Evaluation Methodology................................................................................................................ 70 10. Funding Options Analysis........................................................................................................................ 76 10.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 76 10.2 Core Funding Options................................................................................................................... 76 10.3 Supplementary funding options ...................................................................................................... 85 10.4 Funding options evaluation criteria.................................................................................................. 89 10.5 Evaluation................................................................................................................................... 91 PricewaterhouseCoopers New Zealand