ELECTION · TALK A fortnightly policy brief from the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa

No 11 26 March 2004 ‘S PRESIDENTIAL RACE UNDERWAY Rafiq Hajat Po Box 740, Auckland Institute for Policy Interaction Park, 2006 41 Stanley Avenue, The Malawi election campaign period was officially launched on Saturday Auckland Park, Gauteng 19 March 2004 by the Chairman of the Malawi Electoral Commission, Tel 27-11-4825495 Justice J. B. Kalaile, who exhorted all contenders to practice tolerance and Fax 27-11-4826163 refrain from violence during the campaign period. In referring to the [email protected] opposition parties’ uproar on the inaccessibility and biased reporting by the http://www.eisa.org.za national media, he stated “the two public media institutions will be ISSN 1029-273X required to provide fair and balanced reporting of campaign policies, © EISA 2004 meetings, rallies and press conferences of contestants during the campaign period”. However serious concerns continue to be expressed vis a vis the Published with the impartiality of national media institutions. The General Elections, which assistance of NORAD will cater for the Presidency as well as the Legislature, are slated for & OSISA Tuesday, 18 May 2004, and show every sign of being a heated contest

The preceding weeks have been rife with Movement (PPM), MAFUNDE, PETRA, and the acrimony, animosity and violent incidents that do Malawi Democratic Party (MDP), who joined not auger well for a smooth process. The ranks to defeat a common foe. Mr Chakuamba Presidential race features six contenders. They was the President of the MCP, but formed his are as follows: Dr. Bingu Wa Mutharika is the own political party (the Republican Party) after candidate for the ruling party, the United suffering a defeat at the hands of Mr. Tembo Democratic Front (UDF) and is vigorously during the contest for Party President at the MCP supported by the incumbent President Dr. Bakili Convention. It is worth noting that his running Muluzi; Mr. J. Z. U. Tembo is the flag bearer of mate is Mr. Aleke Banda, a seasoned veteran the (MCP), who had held from the Banda era, who fell out of grace, total power for 30 years under Dr. Hastings suffered long years of imprisonment, and re- Kamuzu Banda during the one-party dispensation emerged on the political field with the onset of prior to 1994. He was reputed to be the “power multi-party democracy. He held the position of behind the throne” during Dr. Banda’s declining Vice President of the ruling party (UDF), until years and is now counted as one of the major resigning in protest over the method of contenders in the race; Mr. Brown Mpinganjira nomination of Dr. Mutharika for the presidential is the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) candidacy by Dr. Muluzi during the latter half of presidential candidate. He was one of the earliest 2003. Mr. Banda subsequently joined PPM and members of the ruling UDF when it was was elected as Party President during its operating as an underground movement resisting convention in January 2004. He was therefore the MCP one-party state. He featured mandated to run for State Presidency by the PPM prominently as a UDF heavyweight until he fell rank and file, but accepted the post of running out of favour with Dr. Bakili Muluzi in 2000, mate for the coalition presidential candidate after when he was suspected of having presidential the selection process had been duly completed. aspirations. He is reckoned to pose a substantial Mr. Justin Malawezi is the only independent challenge in the forthcoming race. Mr. Gwanda candidate in the contest. He is still the State Vice Chakuamba heads the Mgwirizano Coalition, President and held the position of 2nd Vice comprising of six opposition parties; namely the President of the ruling UDF until January 2004, Republican Party, The People’s Progressive when he resigned abruptly and joined PPM,

1 where he was elected as 1st Vice President at their position to profit from the demarcation. Well convention. When PPM joined the coalition resourced in terms of finance and campaign (Mgwirizano), he broke ranks and decided to capacities, with favourable access to the media stand as an independent – espousing a campaign through government-run radio and television based on issues and not character assassination. stations, it could readily command a good field of This move took most political players by surprise potential parliamentary candidates. The BDP and is still a hot topic of debate. Dr. Hetherwick was the only party of government in charge over Ntaba hails from once exalted heights as a the life of the independent country, and for an member of the Kadzamira family that once held ambitious young man or woman, it represented sway as a virtual aristocratic clan in Dr. Kamuzu upward advancement in politics and government. Banda’s heyday (Cecilia Kadzamira was the Government is easily the country’s biggest Official Hostess to Dr. Banda). Dr. Ntaba was employer, and access to its upper echelons comes also Dr. Banda’s personal physician and was best through the BDP. In sharp contrast, the once deemed as the next generation in line for the under-resourced opposition parties, which succession of power in the MCP. He fell out with previously faced difficulties in fielding even forty his uncle, John Tembo and split from the MCP to candidates, now have to find and field fifty seven. form his own party – The New Congress for Even the best of them face little or no realistic Democracy (NCD) in December 2003. All in all, hope of seats or jobs. For the BDP, as the contest promises to be a “no-holds barred” predominant in Botswana as is the ANC in South melee and tension is already growing. There is a Africa and SWAPO in Namibia, Parliament’s feeling that violence may break out at any time, expansion meant an augmentation of that and the nation is watching the unfolding scenario predominance. For weak and disunited opposition with bated breath. parties, the hurdle had been raised higher against them ever achieving meaningful representation. It THE IMPACT OF PARLIAMENT is little wonder that supposed voter apathy is a EXPANSION ON THE ELECTORAL perennia l problem in Botswana’s electoral PROCESS IN BOTSWANA democracy. It was seriously addressed in the Professor Kenneth Good report of the Democracy Research Project of the University of Botswana University of Botswana in March 2002. It was also noted however, that the country’s political The electoral playing-field has undergone radical history militated against political participation, change in the run-up to national elections in and that hereditary chieftainship specifically Botswana near the end of 2004. In circumstances disfavoured democracy in both the past and where life expectancy, under the impact of HIV- present. The non-participatory impulse did not AIDS, had fallen below 40 and where the spring entirely from the voters themselves, for a population growth-rate is slowing, Parliament’s survey conducted a little earlier by the project size was increased from 40 to 57 elected found that 55.8 per cent of the people supported members in February 2003. Parliament decided the direct election of the President, instead of the upon the increase in its size, and the exercise of established indirect method where the choice of creating the new constituencies was placed in the the President is reserved for MPs. hands of a Demarcation Commission appointed by the State President. The political parties were When Million Motlokwa of Francistown wrote to not consulted, and were variously reported to be The Botswana Guardian in November 2003, he dissatisfied with the outcome. The demarcation, noted that “our elections do not change nevertheless, was final as of February 2003, and anything...whether voting for the ruling party or neither Cabinet nor Parliament could change the not the results are always the same.” The Commission’s report. The voters had not been electoral environment, he continued, “is not consulted nor adequately informed about this big conducive for free and fair elections. The ruling change in their representation. party, he stated, is “a player and referee at the same time.” The low turnout in the then recent While Parliament’s expansion by almost 40 per by-election in Francistown East occurred because cent was favourable for popular representation in “people realised that it was worthless voting in general, its impact on the political parties was [what was] a fruitless election.” This sounds bound to be inequitable. The ruling Botswana more like the voice of posit ive abstention rather Democratic Party (BDP) was easily in the best than that of apathy. Botswana’s ruling elite,

2 moreover, does not always promote a big turnout. redistribution. This announcement was made in When important referenda were held in 1997 to, the context of the five regional by-elections and among other things, lower the voting age to 18 the local authorities elections scheduled for May years, some ministers, distrustful of the capacities this year, as well as the Parliamentary, of the youth, reportedly campaigned in favour of Presidential and Regional Council elections a No vote, and turnout was less than 18 per cent. pinned for the end of the year. Although the But the clearest indication that low electoral Minister of Lands, in a follow-up address, hinted participation was acceptable to the elite came just at the fact that officials from his Ministry were after the last, 1999, national elections, when about to identify farms for expropriation and President Mogae declared that Botswana took planned to contact the owners within the pride in its dull elections. Abstention in such subsequent four weeks, nothing concrete has circumstances could well be a rational response transpired to confirm that the government had the to the ruling party’s longevity and the absence of full intent to expropriate land. However, the credible opposition, and a positive response by rhetoric about land expropriation is important as ordinary voters to the overweening power of it presents a number of interesting parallels for elites. The expansion of electoral constituencies these upcoming elections. from 40 to 57, without consultation or discussion with the people, appears unlikely to alter this Firstly, it seemed as if the ruling party was set on problem. a collision course with the trade union movement, when the government stepped in to halt the DISPUTES OVER LAND threats by Namibia Farmworkers' Union DISTRIBUTION AHEAD OF THE (NAFWU) leadership to unilaterally institute a NAMIBIAN ELECTION process of land sharing, by resettling some of Phanuel Kaapama their members on the farms from where they University of Namibia were arbitrarily dismissed by the land owners. Therefore, given the fact that NAFWU is an It seems as if Southern Africa has found a affiliate of the National Union of Namibian traditional concurrence between elections and the Workers (NUNW), which is one of the promises and/or threats for involuntary land formidable affiliated allies to the ruling party, the seizure, to expedite the processes for the re- Prime Minister’s announcement can also be seen distribution of land ownership. For instance the as a confidence-building strategy that is designed land ownership question became a central plank to appease the trade union movement. Credibility in the political campaigns of the various forces to this analogy derives from the fact that a list of that were vying for political office in the eight farms that was revealed in the Swapo Zimbabwean Presidential and Parliamentary mouthpiece, Namibia Today, included those Elections of 2000 and 2002 respectively. Similar farms that NAFWU had initially targeted for its threats were also made by the Landless People's unilateral land sharing scheme. Movement (LPM) in Bisho in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, following a march by Secondly, the upcoming presidential elections more than 300 members of LPM to the Premier's will mark a major watershed for Namibia, in that Office, where they gave the government seven the founding and incumbent President may retire, days to either give them land, or witness forceful hence paving the way for a pre-election race for occupation of farms in this province on election succession among a number of party stalwarts. day of 14 April 2004. The ruling African Among those whose names are being mentioned National Congress (ANC) was quick not only to as favourites for nomination at the Extra Ordinary distance itself from these threats, but also to make Congress scheduled for May 2004 is the Hon. a counter-threat of its own that hooliganism Hifikepunye Pohamba, the current Minister of aimed at creating chaos and discord, as well as at Lands. For him this announcement could be misleading people will not be tolerated. important, in view of the procrastinated progress towards the implementation of the Swapo Party On 25 February 2004, the Namibian Government, Congress resolution taken two years ago, which through Prime Minister Theo-Ben Gurirab, empowered government through the Ministry of announced its plans to expropriate commercial Lands to proceed with the expropriation of the agricultural land, in an effort to speed up land listed 192 farms covering about 1 268 911

3 hectares, which are owned by absentee landlords. proposal is rejected by Frelimo who want to Despite, the announcement analysed above, there maintain only two levels of counting, the existing is optimism that the upcoming elections are not provincial level (which correspond to the likely to be marred by violence, since the Prime constituencies for the legislative elections) and Minister’s announcement and all the subsequent the national level, in addition to the voting station announcements were accompanied by an count. unequivocal undertaking that the land expropriation process is set to proceed in The Renamo Electoral Union, who has accordance with the Namibian Constitution and questioned the validity of previous election the relevant legislatio n, including the promise results, argues that its proposal is aimed at that all those farmers who will lose their farms ensuring greater transparency in the counting would be justly compensated as provided for in process and at reducing the potential for fraud in the Namibian Constitution. the counting and tabulation processes. On the other hand, Frelimo argues that establishing an intermediary counting level which does not DELAYS IN THE ELECTORAL correspond to any representation level is LEGISLATION REVISIONS AHEAD unjustified. The clear difficulty within the Ad OF MOZAMBIQUE’S ELECTIONS Hoc committee in arriving at a consensual draft, Dr. Luís de Brito to be submitted to the plenary for approval, has Political Consultant different implications for the contenders. Frelimo has absolute parliamentary majority and no Mozambique is preparing for the third multiparty legislation can be approved without its consent. presidential and legislative elections that are On the other hand, as it has been hinted by the scheduled to take place during the last quarter of chairperson of the Ad hoc Committee, the failure this year. After the municipal elections of to get the reviewed legislation approved on time November 2003, which took place without major would not have a big impact on the realisation of problems, signs of growing political tension the election, for elections can always take place between Frelimo, the ruling party, and Renamo, under the existing legislation. If this scenario the main opposition party, are starting to emerge does not constitute a concern for Frelimo, since it in the horizon. This emerging tension revolves seems quite comfortable with the current around the electoral legislation. As a matter of legislation, it does however seem to represent a fact, the Ad hoc Committee tasked to revise the problem for Renamo Electoral Union, largely electoral legislation, has not yet reached a because the opposition would have lost some of consensus about the provisions that should the important gains they obtained during the govern the election of the President of the revision of the municipal electoral law. Of those Republic and the deputies of National Assembly, gains it is important to single out the fact that despite working on it over the last two years. presiding officers are obliged to provide the tally Since the new legislation must be adopted with a sheets and polling station minutes to the party minimum period before the voting date, so as to agents immediately after the counting. allow enough time for the electoral authorities to organise the process and also for political parties Over and above the strictly technical aspect of the to organise themselves according to the new law, process, the root cause of this disagreement is it is absolutely critical that the Parliament essentially the opposition’s deep-seated mistrust approves the Electoral Act during the current of the electoral management authorities. In fact sitting adjourning in May. However, taking into although it is already more than a decade after the account the public statement made by the chair of General Peace Agreement was signed (1992), the the Ad hoc Committee, it would appear that the political landscape in Mozambique continues to debate is deadlocked and there are no signs that be characterised by low levels of inclusion of the Frelimo and Renamo Electoral Union can achieve opposition in governance. This trend tends to a breakthrough. The main point of disagreement feed the mistrust in the institutions and allows for is a draft put forward by the Renamo contingent situations of high political tension to build up proposing that a series of provisions calling for which as witnessed in 1999, can easily the establishment of district and town counting degenerate into violence. levels should be inserted into the law. This

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