In Focus

Parliamentary Elections in Poland

On 25 October 2015, Poland held parliamentary elections for both the lower Allocation of Seats in the Sejm house (the Sejm) and the upper house (the 16 1 Senate). The right-wing and eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) Law and Justice party won 37.6 percent of 28 the vote, securing an overall majority in Civic Platform (PO) 42 both houses (235 seats in the 460-seat Kukiz'15 Sejm and 61 seats in the 100-seat Senate). Modern Party 235 As a result, Law and Justice became the Polish Peasants' Party 138 first party in Poland’s post-communist German Minority history not to require a coalition with other parties in order to govern. Although the party is led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski—who served briefly as Prime Minister between 2006 and 2007, and is considered by some to be one of Poland’s most divisive politicians—Beata Szydlo is set to become the country’s new Prime Minister, after Kaczynski appointed her as the party’s nominee for the post. Szydlo has been an MP for a decade, and the BBC reports that she had impressed Kaczynski with her running of Andrzej Duda’s successful presidential campaign in May 2015.

Results and Political Background

Poland uses open-list proportional representation for elections to the Sejm, and a political party needs to win 5 percent (8 percent for coalitions) of the national vote to win seats, although candidates belonging to ethnic minorities are exempt from these requirements. The Senate is elected using first- past-the-post in single-member constituencies. Turnout for the 2015 elections stood at just under 51 percent.

The result of the election saw the end of the eight year rule of the centrist Civic Platform (PO), pushing the party into second place. (PO won 24.1 percent of the vote, and secured 138 seats in the Sejm and 34 seats in the Senate.) A number of new parties also won seats to the Sejm. An anti-establishment and right-wing party led by Polish rock star, Pawel Kukiz, came third with 42 seats, followed by the pro-business Modern party, led by former World Bank economist, Ryszard Petru, with 28 seats. No left-wing party will form part of Poland’s new parliament, after the left-wing United Left (ZL) coalition failed to win enough votes to pass the eight percent threshold.

The elections follow the victory of Law and Justice candidate, Andrzej Duda, in the May 2015 presidential election, where he defeated the PO-backed, Bronislaw Komorowski. BBC News correspondent, Adam Easton, argued at the time that victory was “remarkable”, given that Duda was Samuel White LIF 2015/0041 4 November 2015 relatively unknown and Komorowski had seemed a popular president, suggesting it may reflect voter weariness of the governing PO, a factor which may have been borne out in the later parliamentary elections.

Reaction

Commentators have described the politics of Law and Justice as a mix of social conservativism—the party is backed by the Catholic church in Poland—and left-wing economics. For example, the party has pledged to reverse the decision of the last Government to raise the retirement age to 67, and promised to introduce a monthly child benefit. It has also promised to impose new taxes on largely foreign-owned banks and supermarkets, and wants Poland’s central bank to make cheap loans available to small and medium-sized businesses. However, Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, reports that while economists think the Law and Justice programme will initially stimulate stronger economic growth, they predict it could then lead to a “deep crisis of state finances”.

A number of commentators have suggested that disillusionment with the PO’s eight years in office had contributed to the success of Law and Justice. While PO had overseen impressive levels of economic growth—Poland’s economy has grown by 46 percent in the last ten years—many Poles reportedly felt that they had not benefitted from it. Easton suggests that many “Poles had grown weary…of the Civic Platform’s unfulfilled promises, scandals and what was perceived by some to be an aloof attitude”. Indeed, Piotr Buras argues that Law and Justice was able to capitalise on the frustrations of people who had felt left behind by Poland’s rapid political, social and economic transformation over the past 25 years. Notably, it has also been reported that Law and Justice won the largest share of voters aged between 18 and 25.

Law and Justice’s victory also raises questions about Poland’s relationship with the European Union and Russia. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Mitchell A. Orenstein notes that while the PO Government had built excellent relationships with Germany and with the EU, these are now “likely to deteriorate”. Notably, Kaczynski declared that Poland would oppose EU plans to accommodate refugees and, in October 2015, Reuters reported that Kaczynski said that refugees from the Middle East would bring diseases and parasites with them. However, The Telegraph suggests that the party is not anti-EU, rather it is “sceptical” of deeper integration and wants the country to assert its national interest more. For example, Law and Justice have argued in favour of a strong NATO to counter the perceived threat from Russia. Further, it has been reported that Kaczynski has hinted that he holds Russia responsible for the plane crash that killed his twin brother and the then-President Lech Kacynski in 2010.

The Economist reports concerns voiced by some observers that Law and Justice might seek constitutional change to strengthen the role of the President. However, Buras reasons that Law and Justice might not be able to secure the two-thirds majority in the Sejm necessary to make such changes. Equally, while it has been reported that many Poles were reassured when Kaczynski promised not to become prime minister in favour of Szydlo, the BBC notes critics have questioned Szydlo’s independence. Nevertheless, The Economist suggests that while “power remains concentrated around Mr Kaczynski”, Law and Justice is “not a monolithic party” and won by appealing to a wide variety of groups, such as farmers, urban voters and young people. However, it also observes that Kaczynski’s critics have publicly speculated that it will only be a matter of time before he finds an excuse to take over.

Library In Focus are compiled for the benefit of Members of the House of Lords and their personal staff, to provide impartial, politically balanced briefings on a selection of topical subjects. Authors are available to discuss the contents of the Notes with the Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public.

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